2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Tender Branson]

WaPo: Early surge of Democratic mail voting sparks worry inside GOP

Why would this worry the Rs ?

It was clear all along that Ds would vote mostly by mail ...

[wbrocks67]

WaPo: Early surge of Democratic mail voting sparks worry inside GOP

Why would this worry the Rs ?

It was clear all along that Ds would vote mostly by mail ...

Because banking votes is always a good thing.

[LimoLiberal]

Worrying numbers for Democrats in North Carolina detailed in this thread.

https://twitter.com/markjstephenson/status/1311301149295874051

Democrats lead in requests and returned, but of the ballots returned by Republicans, 7% are first-time voters. Just 5% of the ballots returned by Democrats are the same.

WWC surge?

[Bootes Void]

Worrying numbers for Democrats in North Carolina detailed in this thread.

https://twitter.com/markjstephenson/status/1311301149295874051

Democrats lead in requests and returned, but of the ballots returned by Republicans, 7% are first-time voters. Just 5% of the ballots returned by Democrats are the same.

WWC surge?

It's hard to make anything of early voting

[bilaps]

Black turnout rate of 16% so far among Dem friendly sample isn't great for Dems though.

[ajc0918]

Interesting numbers so far in Florida.


Party   Returned Ballots in Florida:   
Democrats   - 70,349
Republicans - 36,075   
Minor - 1,636   
No Party Affiliation - 23,772   
TOTAL - 131,832   

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I keep checking this thread hoping to see Georgia updates every time there's a new post, haha

[kph14]

Wisconsin now up to 350,020 ballots cast

29.1% of ballots returned
11.8% of total 2016 turnout

[GeorgiaModerate]

I keep checking this thread hoping to see Georgia updates every time there's a new post, haha

Check this site, updated daily: http://georgiavotes.com/

[Bootes Void]

Black turnout rate of 16% so far among Dem friendly sample isn't great for Dems though.

is this early voting or mail in voting as well. People should be skeptical of early voting results.

[DINGO Joe]

Worrying numbers for Democrats in North Carolina detailed in this thread.

https://twitter.com/markjstephenson/status/1311301149295874051

Democrats lead in requests and returned, but of the ballots returned by Republicans, 7% are first-time voters. Just 5% of the ballots returned by Democrats are the same.

WWC surge?

It's hard to make anything of early voting

At this point it would mean 7500 new Democratic voters and 3400 new Republican voters (to the state).  That's about all it means

[It’s so Joever]

Black turnout rate of 16% so far among Dem friendly sample isn't great for Dems though.

I don’t know if rural black voters are exactly more likely to vote early. I would believe educated white urbanites lead the pack here.

[Gass3268]

Worrying numbers for Democrats in North Carolina detailed in this thread.

https://twitter.com/markjstephenson/status/1311301149295874051

Democrats lead in requests and returned, but of the ballots returned by Republicans, 7% are first-time voters. Just 5% of the ballots returned by Democrats are the same.

WWC surge?

It's hard to make anything of early voting

At this point it would mean 7500 new Democratic voters and 3400 new Republican voters (to the state).  That's about all it means

Exactly, if the raw numbers were closer it could mean something. We are talking about a new voter difference of 0.7%. It feels like Stephenson is trying to make chicken salad out of chicken sh**t.

[redjohn]

Returned ballots in Dane county comprise 22.3% of its 2016 total. A month before the election.

[kph14]

Returned ballots in Dane county comprise 22.3% of its 2016 total. A month before the election.

If most absentee ballots are returned before election day and not on election day it should speed up the counting

[Adam Griffin]

100,213 returned votes in GA as of this evening.

57% White
34% Black

54% Female
46% Male

68% 65+
32% 18-65

78% Voted in 2016
22% Did Not Vote in 2016

Georgia VBM Requests as of 9/30, % of Total 2018 Vote:
Abrams Counties: 39.43% (850606/2156818)
Georgia, Overall: 34.66%
Kemp Counties: 28.91% (518039/1792128)

46.35% Cobb
44.89% Dekalb
42.64% Richmond
39.85% Muscogee
39.19% Clarke
39.13% Gwinnett
38.50% Chatham
37.07% Fulton
34.93% Clayton
33.29% Bibb

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just dropped off my ballot. Huge turnout and the parking lot was full. I even had to briefly wait in line for drop-off.

Turnout in Minneapolis isn't a problem.

[bilaps]

Black turnout rate of 16% so far among Dem friendly sample isn't great for Dems though.

is this early voting or mail in voting as well. People should be skeptical of early voting results.

It's only the mail in.

[Non Swing Voter]

The idea that early voting means nothing is crazy.  Democrats are banking tons of votes in some of these states.  They can just check these voters off the list and focus on others.  Republicans need to make sure they get a huge turnout on Election Day during a pandemic, while their candidate is turning everyone off to politics and when the campaign is financially strapped compared to Democrats. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The idea that early voting means nothing is crazy.  Democrats are banking tons of votes in some of these states.  They can just check these voters off the list and focus on others.  Republicans need to make sure they get a huge turnout on Election Day during a pandemic, while their candidate is turning everyone off to politics and when the campaign is financially strapped compared to Democrats. 

Yes the "early voting means nothing" canard is based on the assumption that both parties equally engage in early voting. That's just not true this time.

[Non Swing Voter]

The idea that early voting means nothing is crazy.  Democrats are banking tons of votes in some of these states.  They can just check these voters off the list and focus on others.  Republicans need to make sure they get a huge turnout on Election Day during a pandemic, while their candidate is turning everyone off to politics and when the campaign is financially strapped compared to Democrats. 

Yes the "early voting means nothing" canard is based on the assumption that both parties equally engage in early voting. That's just not true this time.

Right, and I think Republicans have gotten used to their base being educated, upper income, reliable voters who they didn't even have to reach out to but would vote absentee or show up on Election Day, which would offset the fact that there are simply more democrats than republicans in this country.  Now they have a situation where Democrats are handily winning educated, reliable suburban voters.  Even worse, Trump is alienating old people, another reliable bloc.  So basically the current math is = More Dems nationally, more Dem votes being banked before Election Day.  Republicans are hoping for a Hail Mary of massive turnout of low propensity Trump voters on Election Day, which is unlikely to materialize in the kind of numbers they need to offset all of the above facts. 

[kph14]

VPAP now has data for early voting, returned mail ballots and not yet returned mail ballots for all Virginia counties and independent cities

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

[wbrocks67]

Is there anything new from Pennsylvania? Interested how many early votes Philly got yesterday.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Just dropped off my ballot. Huge turnout and the parking lot was full. I even had to briefly wait in line for drop-off.

Turnout in Minneapolis isn't a problem.

Good for Trump! They are voting to LIBERATE MINNESOTA!

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1311399431271591936