2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[bilaps]

Really good dashboard for tracking returned ballots so far in Florida.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

Where did he get these numbers? Because on official site there are only 7,5k ballots cast so far.

[NOVA Green]

Got my absentee ballot today in Idaho. Voted straight DEM across the board and will return my ballot in person at the election office. Our system is pretty safe but this is not an election where I will take risks.

Excellent!

Welcome to the forum!

[jamestroll]

I think I may have been the first TalkElections poster to vote in the 2020 Presidential Election actually.

[Hammy]

I think I may have been the first TalkElections poster to vote in the 2020 Presidential Election actually.

I plan to fill out my ballot this weekend. Nice thing about absentee is you can take the time to carefully look up the local candidates.

VBM Requests as of 9/26, % of Total 2018 Vote:
Abrams Counties: 37.90% (817453/2156818)
Georgia, Overall: 33.28%
Kemp Counties: 27.72% (496804/1792128)

That's promising, especially given mail in Georgia has been pretty fast with the ballots.

[NOVA Green]

Got my absentee ballot today in Idaho. Voted straight DEM across the board and will return my ballot in person at the election office. Our system is pretty safe but this is not an election where I will take risks.

Excellent!

Welcome to the forum!

We need more posters from under-represented States and places within the US...

Your sig indicates Twin Falls, which I haven't been to in about 20-25 Years, but remembers as always hot and dusty (but could just be that the majority of 20+ cross-Country Road Trips through Twin Falls tended to be in the early Summer / early Fall)....

How do you see Trump performing in places like Nampa, Idaho and even Twin Falls, Idaho in 2020?

Send me a PM if interested in precinct level data /sources from ID, since it's one of those States which frequently falls completely off the radar, even on Atlas..... 

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7506361#msg7506361

To go back slightly on-topic, OR ballots aren't supposed to be mailed out until October 13th (Which is about normal for OR, typically 2 Weeks before the Election and our voter pamphlet usually comes about a Week or so before so we can review ballot measures, non-partisan elections (Judges, Mayors, etc...)... but we will be getting our ballots in ASAP after being received and delivered in person to the drop-box by the County Courthouse in our Down-State Oregon Trump Country County....

[forza nocta]

I got my ballot a few days ago, but I dont want to open it yet for some reason. If Biden does well tonight, I’ll fill it out and send it tomorrow lol

[wbrocks67]

Should start getting some votes out of PA today! Philly early voting sites open today and ballots should start hitting voters this week across the state.

[ajc0918]

Really good dashboard for tracking returned ballots so far in Florida.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

Where did he get these numbers? Because on official site there are only 7,5k ballots cast so far.

State website is updated only once daily. Counties update throughout the day. He'll be updating the model several times a day now as ballots are accounted for.

[LabourJersey]

I think I may have been the first TalkElections poster to vote in the 2020 Presidential Election actually.

I voted early on Sep. 21 (I live in VA currently). The line in Arlington was kind of long even at 8AM that Monday

[Rep Jessica]

Florida 51,353 ballots returned     https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Voters have cast a total of 1,144,059 ballots in the reporting states. (Before the data above from Florida so add another 18k to the total) https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

[Rep Jessica]

Virginia:360,050
Wisconsin:308,555
North Carolina:275,144
Minnesota:75,511
Georgia:40,285
South Dakota:36,060
New Jersey:34,107
Florida: 33,423
Michigan:28,003
Illinois:26,423
South Carolina:2,692
Montana:708
Iowa:587
Ohio:153
https://twitter.com/Elections2020Us

[kph14]

Virginia:360,050
Wisconsin:308,555
North Carolina:275,144
Minnesota:75,511
Georgia:40,285
South Dakota:36,060
New Jersey:34,107
Florida: 33,423
Michigan:28,003
Illinois:26,423
South Carolina:2,692
Montana:708
Iowa:587
Ohio:153
https://twitter.com/Elections2020Us

Leading based on share of 2016 total turnout

WI: 10.4%
SD: 9.7%
VA: 9.0%
NC: 5.8%
MN: 2.6%

[Sorenroy]

I guess I'll add my personal experience. I requested a ballot on the 10th and only yesterday did the ballot get sent out (I still won't get it for another week or two). Called the county board of elections and they said that that's normal: requests are taking two to three weeks to fill because of volume. They mentioned that part of that is because requests are up from 6,000 to 45,000 since 2016.

[Non Swing Voter]

The WI and VA numbers are pretty incredible.

[Rep Jessica]

Umichvoter
@umichvoter99
·
51s
Statewide ballots at 70,000 in Florida already
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

[ajc0918]

Umichvoter
@umichvoter99
·
51s
Statewide ballots at 70,000 in Florida already
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Florida has surpassed 85,000 already. May hit 100,000 tonight.

[kph14]

New Hampshire has started today to publish its absentee ballot request numbers (hopefully they add returned ballots later):
https://sos.nh.gov/elections/information/notices/absentee-ballots-requested-for-general-election/

It currently stands at 148,630 (20% of 2016's total turnout)

[Crumpets]

New Hampshire has started today to publish its absentee ballot request numbers (hopefully they add returned ballots later):
https://sos.nh.gov/elections/information/notices/absentee-ballots-requested-for-general-election/

It currently stands at 148,630 (20% of 2016's total turnout)

I can't wait for election eve when Hart's Landing and Dixville Notch go to report their numbers and it comes back as "early vote totals pending."

[Gass3268]

[Dr. Arch]

How energized are Democrats? Yes.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1311078308273098752?s=20

[Storr]

Umichvoter
@umichvoter99
·
51s
Statewide ballots at 70,000 in Florida already
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Florida has surpassed 85,000 already. May hit 100,000 tonight.

According to the Google doc linked, Florida has already passed it! 104,988 currently.

[Bootes Void]

How energized are Democrats? Yes.

The concern trolling about enthusiasm between Trump and Biden has to be worst take at this election. They shouldnt ask are you enthusiastic about Biden or Trump but rather are you enthusiastic about voting?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1311078308273098752?s=20

is that of total registered voters?

[Lief 🗽]

WaPo: Early surge of Democratic mail voting sparks worry inside GOP

Of the more than 9 million voters who requested mail ballots through Monday in Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Maine and Iowa, the five battleground states where such data is publicly available, 52 percent were Democrats. Twenty-eight percent were Republicans, and 20 percent were unaffiliated.

Additional internal Democratic and Republican Party data obtained by The Washington Post shows a similar trend in Ohio, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

Even more alarming to some Republicans, Democrats are also returning their ballots at higher rates than GOP voters in two of those states where that information is available: Florida and North Carolina.

...

But several Republicans acknowledged privately that there is little upside for their party in the numbers — and said they are working feverishly to reverse the trend with a last-minute press with voters.

“It’s astronomical,” said one Republican strategist involved in Senate races who said he was “horrified” by the discrepancy and, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal concerns. “You see these numbers in a state like North Carolina, and how can you not be concerned?”

...

Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who is tracking mail voting trends on his website, the United States Elections Project, noted that in some states, the number of ballots cast is already approaching 10 percent of the vote total in 2016. He added that turnout this fall could surpass that of four years ago before Election Day even arrives.

In North Carolina and Georgia, for instance, 1 in 5 voters who have cast ballots didn’t even vote in 2016, McDonald said. Requests for mail ballot are up astronomically in dozens of states; the figure is 350 percent in Michigan, for instance, when compared with 2016.

In North Carolina, 17 times more people have requested ballots than four years ago; in Wisconsin, requests were up by a factor of 12, according to internal RNC data.

...

Republicans once carried an advantage in voting by mail. Ayres, the Republican pollster and a vocal critic of the president, said Trump’s rhetoric on mail voting has undermined decades of GOP work in the area.

“That’s what we do!” Ayres said with audible frustration. “We have made an art of tracking down people who would otherwise be reluctant to vote in person and getting them to use absentee ballots. It’s part of what we’ve done well in the past.”

He noted that the current GOP push for voters to cast absentee ballots runs counter to Trump’s rhetoric.

“I’ve seen these appeals to likely Republican voters — ‘Please apply for your absentee ballot.’ But it’s at the same time those voters are hearing from their president that mail voting is ripe with fraud,” he said.