Nevada-UNLV: Biden +5

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nevada: UNLV, Aug. 20-30, 682 LV

Biden 44
Trump 39

Trump approval: 41/51

I have no prior information on this pollster.

[wbrocks67]

The amount of undecideds is ridiculous but the approval rating looks about right.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Putting the undecided deds aside, pretty much a 2018 Rosen-over-Heller margin. 

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Remember to add 4 points to the Democrat on top of any Nevada poll.

[Sir Mohamed]

Both #s seem a bit low, but a +5 margin seems to be Biden's floor. NV has been difficult to poll in previous  cycles. In fact, Trump was ahead just before the 2016 election. Likely D.

[wbrocks67]

Remember to add 4 points to the Democrat on top of any Nevada poll.

Yeah, this too. There were some polls that had Trump winning in 2016.

[Gass3268]

Remember to add 4 points to the Democrat on top of any Nevada poll.

Pretty much. Also, let's not forget the new election law that will allow the Culinary Union and other groups to collect and return ballots.

[Person Man]

Remember to add 4 points to the Democrat on top of any Nevada poll.

Yeah, this too. There were some polls that had Trump winning in 2016.

Most of them did.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, finally someone released a Nevada Poll. It isn't the best, in fact it is probably rather poor on multiple levels, but that is what you get when you poll this state these days. Still a good poll for Biden though, depending upon how many points you add to the democrats to correct for Nevada's consistent (over a decade of evidence now) polling issues.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MoE: 4%

Someone else 5%
Undecided 12%

[Gass3268]

Here's how this is gonna go:

1. Very early polls will have the Democrat leading.
2. Then the polls will shift and Trump will have a narrow to sometimes even a moderate lead. One poll will show Trump by double digits, event though they don't have a Spanish language option. Dems in disarray. Sean Trende will say something stupid and Harry Enten will say that the polls have never been wrong in Nevada.
3. The polls will then tighten about a month before the election. Everyone will then call it a Toss Up.
4. Early voting will start and it will be strong for the Democrats initially, but then the Republicans will recover during the first week after Trump does a visit. Jon Ralston will say it's close.
5. Democrats crush the early vote in the last week. Jon Ralston says it's essentially over.
6. Democrats win by 3-7 points.

We should be in phase 2 by now, but it's possible we are in phase 1. Maybe Biden has enough of a lead that the first few phases won't happen.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Remember to add 4 points to the Democrat on top of any Nevada poll.

Surely pollsters are trying to account for this now? I would bet it's closer to D+2%, on average.

[YE]

Remember to add 4 points to the Democrat on top of any Nevada poll.

Surely pollsters are trying to account for this now? I would bet it's closer to D+2%, on average.

2018 begs to differ.

[Person Man]

Remember to add 4 points to the Democrat on top of any Nevada poll.

Yeah, this too. There were some polls that had Trump winning in 2016.

Most of them did.

Incorrect

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton-5891.html#polls

The issue is that there were not many polls for Nevada

Well that aggregate did have Trump ahead. I can buy that polls could be better this year. Either they say Biden’s ahead and he wins or that Trump pulls ahead and he eventually wins.

[DrScholl]

Nevada is hard to poll. If I'm correct there is an issue with reaching Hispanic voters because of a language barrier.

[Oryxslayer]

Remember to add 4 points to the Democrat on top of any Nevada poll.

Surely pollsters are trying to account for this now? I would bet it's closer to D+2%, on average.

I mean there is no consistent number to add to the total, it's up to your personal preference. The end result though is consistent, because of two correlating factors that are either impossible to account for accurately in polls or are too expensive to correct for. The first issue is one of lower Hispanic response rates, a normal feature of Southwestern polling. Polls need to run not just in english but spanish, and even then these voters are often undervalued by weights or voter screens. The second issue through is unique to Nevada. A large section of the Nevada workforce is nocturnal, working the night shift at casinos or other entertainment outlets and sleeping during the day. The voters on the flipped schedule are mostly minorities, be they the previous Hispanics or African Americans from North Las Vegas. These voters are financially unreachable, since one would have to put in a more money to poll a smaller sample size of workers with unpredictable and personalized schedules.

[Lief 🗽]

Nevada is one of the few states where the Trafalgar “arbitrarily add a few points” system would actually work (though for the Democratic candidates).

[Senator-elect Spark]

NV will be competitive but I still give a slight edge to Biden despite his weaknesses with Hispanics.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

NV will be competitive but I still give a slight edge to Biden despite his weaknesses with Hispanics.

NV will not be competitive.

[Xing]

If Trump is down 5 in NV polling, a double digit win for Biden here is definitely in the cards. NV is pretty much Safe D at this point.

[Calthrina950]

If Trump is down 5 in NV polling, a double digit win for Biden here is definitely in the cards. NV is pretty much Safe D at this point.

Obama did win Nevada by 12% in 2008, so it's plausible. That would put Nevada in roughly the same range as Virginia and Colorado, where polls suggest that Biden is leading Trump by low double digits.

[Xing]

If Trump is down 5 in NV polling, a double digit win for Biden here is definitely in the cards. NV is pretty much Safe D at this point.

Obama did win Nevada by 12% in 2008, so it's plausible. That would put Nevada in roughly the same range as Virginia and Colorado, where polls suggest that Biden is leading Trump by low double digits.

That's true. I think Biden will win CO/VA by a bit more than NV (my guess is a 12-13% win for him in those states), but I'm pretty confident that NV will trend at least slightly Democratic this year.

[Calthrina950]

If Trump is down 5 in NV polling, a double digit win for Biden here is definitely in the cards. NV is pretty much Safe D at this point.

Obama did win Nevada by 12% in 2008, so it's plausible. That would put Nevada in roughly the same range as Virginia and Colorado, where polls suggest that Biden is leading Trump by low double digits.

That's true. I think Biden will win CO/VA by a bit more than NV (my guess is a 12-13% win for him in those states), but I'm pretty confident that NV will trend at least slightly Democratic this year.

I'd agree with this, and I view Jared Polis' 2018 gubernatorial map in Colorado as the template for how my home state will vote this year. Polls also suggest that Biden is up by mid-double digits in New Mexico, and a result for him similar to Obama's 2008 victory (when he beat McCain by 15%) or Lujan-Grisham's 2018 gubernatorial victory (when she won by 14% against Steve Pearce) there would also be very plausible. And coupling this with the fact that Biden could get as high as 65% in California, that Arizona is in play for Biden, and that Trump will win Utah by a safe but underwhelming margin, it's clear that the Southwest in general is a region where Trump stands to do worse than last time.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Nevada is a state that I haven't had the best read on this cycle, but this seems at least within reasonable range.

[Horus]

Is Biden running ads here?