CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 6,568,703
Dems 3,484,138 (53.0%)
Reps 1,613,286 (24.6%)
Ind/Other 1,471,279 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (34%), Reps (30%), Ind/Other (22%)

Total ballots returned = 6,786,187
Dems 3,582,405 (52.8%)
Reps 1,679,645 (24.8%)
Ind/Other 1,524,137 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (35%), Reps (31%), Ind/Other (23%)

[Canis]

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 6,568,703
Dems 3,484,138 (53.0%)
Reps 1,613,286 (24.6%)
Ind/Other 1,471,279 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (34%), Reps (30%), Ind/Other (22%)

Total ballots returned = 6,786,187
Dems 3,582,405 (52.8%)
Reps 1,679,645 (24.8%)
Ind/Other 1,524,137 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (35%), Reps (31%), Ind/Other (23%)

Of note, on election eve 2020, it was Dems +25.5 on Reps. Right now, +28.0, so highly likely we'll head into election eve 2021 with Dems at a higher increase over Reps than 2020.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Further to the discussion on maps, it looks like NOTA is on track to win more counties than Elder.
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1435625159570837505?s=21

NOTA winning question 2 would probably be a good look for Newsom, and give the Dems in the state legislature a better platform to advocate reform of the recall process.

Will still be a pyrrhic victory if Newsom wins by a margins of <10%, which would be kinda embarrassing in CA of all places. Given the narrative about a close race, I doubt it will hurt him this year, but I think there's a chance it could come back to haunt him in the blanket primary next year though ("Gavin Newsom nearly handed CA over to a GOP governor who might have appointed Feinstein's successor. Do you really trust him with another term? Vote Chiang/Villarosa/etc").

There’s a chance of someone running on this, but I don’t think that they’d be very successful. Granted, it would be hilarious if say Chiang ran and made it to second place and locked the GOP out and then the GOP’s hatred of Newsom drives some of them to vote for Chiang (see CA-Sen 2018 where De Leon did very well in many of the most Republican areas simply because he wasn’t Feinstein).

Also, don't forget, but a massive number of Rs didn't even vote, iirc, the undercount in Cox counties would've put De Leon over the top if he won all of them.Ofc, thats unlikely, but still.

[Telesquare]

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1435846135801946114

Crazy Larry gets cucked by TWO governors now. Sad!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

On Monday, Newsom will be holding an anti-recall rally with President Biden in Long Beach.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/biden-campaign-california-gov-gavin-newsom-eve-recall-vote-n1278830


I'm tempted to drive out for this

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Also (I'm surprised no one posted this):

Orrin Heatlie, the one that launched the recall effort last February, recently tested positive for COVID-19 and has been self-isolating for the last 2 weeks. While his wife/daughter were vaccinated, he himself was not.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-09-07/california-governor-recall-leader-covid-19

[wbrocks67]

At this point it feels like anti-recall side is just trying to run up the score as much as possible.

[Telesquare]

https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1435787351704305666
Promoting AOC? He must be REALLY desperate!

[Minnesota Mike]

At this point it feels like anti-recall side is just trying to run up the score as much as possible.

Maybe if this goes down by 20 points we don't have to go through this nonsense every few years.

[Canis]

Last night I got 3 Bernie Sanders No on Recall ads in a row on Hulu and one Larry Elder ad lol.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1435787351704305666
Promoting AOC? He must be REALLY desperate!

He's not desperate and the polls are moving strongly in his direction. Whether we like it or not, AOC has following beyond her district among young progressives. Her (and Bernie before) coming out in opposition to the recall and Newsom mentioning this in a Tweet is nothing unusual. Especially if even a Nobody like Matt Gaetz can go to Wyoming to campaign against Liz Cheney for simply voting to impeach.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1435787351704305666
Promoting AOC? He must be REALLY desperate!

Uh... no? The recall will likely fail by high single digits to low double digits. The only desperate sounding one here is you.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1435787351704305666
Promoting AOC? He must be REALLY desperate!

"....stick that sucker right back in your mailbox to make sure that the man who dined with his rich friends when you peasants were sitting at your home, and also happened to take part in making sure homelessness become rampant, continue his great work!"

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1435787351704305666
Promoting AOC? He must be REALLY desperate!

"....stick that sucker right back in your mailbox to make sure that the man who dined with his rich friends when you peasants were sitting at your home, and also happened to take part in making sure homelessness become rampant, continue his great work!"

That’s on period, king. It does look like California Democrats are indeed taking this advice considering the turnout numbers.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Also what are the odds of the race being called for Newsom at poll closing? What would it take for that to happen?

An exit poll.

I think most outlets will wait for a few key precincts to report first.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

So, weird thing I've noticed about recall polling: 18-34s are seemingly all over the place.

Take YouGov, Suffolk, and SurveyUSA, in the last couple weeks.





18-34s are anywhere from Yes+13 to No+35, even as 65+s are a very consistent No+15ish in all of the polls. What the heck is going on with those LV screens?

Update: the new SurveyUSA poll has all age groups moving 5-6%, with the notable exception of 18-34s, who have moved 19 (!!) points towards No.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

So, weird thing I've noticed about recall polling: 18-34s are seemingly all over the place.

Take YouGov, Suffolk, and SurveyUSA, in the last couple weeks.





18-34s are anywhere from Yes+13 to No+35, even as 65+s are a very consistent No+15ish in all of the polls. What the heck is going on with those LV screens?

Update: the new SurveyUSA poll has all age groups moving 5-6%, with the notable exception of 18-34s, who have moved 19 (!!) points towards No.

STOP using SurveyUSA, for the love of man.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

So, weird thing I've noticed about recall polling: 18-34s are seemingly all over the place.

Take YouGov, Suffolk, and SurveyUSA, in the last couple weeks.

<snip>

18-34s are anywhere from Yes+13 to No+35, even as 65+s are a very consistent No+15ish in all of the polls. What the heck is going on with those LV screens?

Update: the new SurveyUSA poll has all age groups moving 5-6%, with the notable exception of 18-34s, who have moved 19 (!!) points towards No.

<snip>

STOP using SurveyUSA, for the love of man.

lmao well I'm not going to take them entirely seriously, but their LV screening for age is obviously doing something really funky and that's at least somewhat interesting

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 6,786,187
Dems 3,582,405 (52.8%)
Reps 1,679,645 (24.8%)
Ind/Other 1,524,137 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (35%), Reps (31%), Ind/Other (23%)

Total ballots returned = 7,066,468
Dems 3,736,283 (52.9%)
Reps 1,735,670 (24.6%)
Ind/Other 1,594,515 (22.5%)

Turnout = Dems (36%), Reps (32%), Ind/Other (24%)

[Progressive Pessimist]

At this point it feels like anti-recall side is just trying to run up the score as much as possible.

As they should. I really don't want to deal with "Democrats in Disarray over recall election underperformance!" takes on here and in the media after the election.

[Cyrusman]

Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and AOC all campaigning.
How many states other can you say you can have all of those people campaign for you and it be a positive?

[Oryxslayer]

Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and AOC all campaigning.
How many states other can you say you can have all of those people campaign for you and it be a positive?

Most Blue states, if you microtarget enough. That's one of the advantages of California's size, something unviable in most other states. A large number of area codes, media markets, and cultural differences means that you can have ads on all types of platforms in one part of the state that others will never see.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1436134777623494682

This is  not going to be close.