CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[DrScholl]

Regardless of result - I expect Newsom will survive narrowly, which is damaging enough for any national prospects he has or should be unless California Democrats are complete morons - what a complete waste of space this man is. Let's remember that he required national Democratic Party help to defeat a MEMBER OF THE GREEN PARTY in a runoff for Mayor of San Francisco. It's insane that when you perform that poorly that outside resources have to come in to boost you above a 3rd-party candidate (and there's a credible argument that the super-minority Republican Party of San Francisco are what pushed him over the top to give him the win over Gonzalez) you then become the strongest guy that can potentially be put forward to be the executive of California.

To be fair in that mayoral run off the Green Party candidate was an actually officeholder as a member of the board of supervisors. It's not like Newsom was running against a random third party perennial or something.

[StateBoiler]

Regardless of result - I expect Newsom will survive narrowly, which is damaging enough for any national prospects he has or should be unless California Democrats are complete morons - what a complete waste of space this man is. Let's remember that he required national Democratic Party help to defeat a MEMBER OF THE GREEN PARTY in a runoff for Mayor of San Francisco. It's insane that when you perform that poorly that outside resources have to come in to boost you above a 3rd-party candidate (and there's a credible argument that the super-minority Republican Party of San Francisco are what pushed him over the top to give him the win over Gonzalez) you then become the strongest guy that can potentially be put forward to be the executive of California.

To be fair in that mayoral run off the Green Party candidate was an actually officeholder as a member of the board of supervisors. It's not like Newsom was running against a random third party perennial or something.

It's San Francisco! How many times did Nancy Pelosi have to get help to win a congressional election there against non-Democrats?

[Schiff for Senate]

This is how I'd vote:

Numero Uno: NO.
Numero Dos: RO KHANNA, representative for CA17

I didn't know you can write in names in the replacement vote?

I'm assuming you can; I haven't opened the ballot yet. But if you can't then I'm Lean or Likely Faulconer.

You can, as there's technically nothing stopping you from casting a write-in vote for Khanna on the replacement question, but that vote just won't be counted like a vote for Faulconer/etc. or a write-in vote for a filed write-in candidate would.

So a Khanna vote just won't be tabulated and counted?

[Хahar 🤔]

Let's remember that he required national Democratic Party help to defeat a MEMBER OF THE GREEN PARTY in a runoff for Mayor of San Francisco.

This is not really in any way an accurate reading of San Francisco municipal politics.

[StateBoiler]

Let's remember that he required national Democratic Party help to defeat a MEMBER OF THE GREEN PARTY in a runoff for Mayor of San Francisco.

This is not really in any way an accurate reading of San Francisco municipal politics.

I remember this election. National Democrats pulled out the stops because they didn't want to suffer an embarassment in Nancy Pelosi's backyard. If you're the pick of the Democratic Party establishment in the area and need help to win a Mayor of San Francisco election - including from S.F. Republicans - there should be serious questions asked about your skill level as a politician. And then setting that aside, he later became the Democratic Party pick to be Governor of California.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

[Хahar 🤔]

Let's remember that he required national Democratic Party help to defeat a MEMBER OF THE GREEN PARTY in a runoff for Mayor of San Francisco.

This is not really in any way an accurate reading of San Francisco municipal politics.

I remember this election. National Democrats pulled out the stops because they didn't want to suffer an embarassment in Nancy Pelosi's backyard. If you're the pick of the Democratic Party establishment in the area and need help to win a Mayor of San Francisco election - including from S.F. Republicans - there should be serious questions asked about your skill level as a politician. And then setting that aside, he later became the Democratic Party pick to be Governor of California.

I also remember that election. Nancy Pelosi has never "needed help" because all of her congressional elections have been partisan elections, which municipal elections in California are not. I don't like Gavin Newsom and don't think that his takeover of the Democratic Party has been a good thing, but that's not any reason to mischaracterize what actually happened.

Newsom was not the Democratic Party candidate; he was the candidate of the municipal right wing (the Willie Brown machine), and Matt Gonzalez was the candidate from the municipal left wing who made it out of the first round to face him. Mapping national partisan politics onto a nonpartisan election is not only wrong in a literal sense, but it also completely obscures the dynamics of the actual race.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 4,094,635
Dems 2,216,125 (54.1%)
Reps 974,878 (23.8%)
Ind/Other 903,632 (22.1%)

Turnout = Dems (21%), Reps (18%), Ind/Other (14%)

[DrScholl]

Regardless of result - I expect Newsom will survive narrowly, which is damaging enough for any national prospects he has or should be unless California Democrats are complete morons - what a complete waste of space this man is. Let's remember that he required national Democratic Party help to defeat a MEMBER OF THE GREEN PARTY in a runoff for Mayor of San Francisco. It's insane that when you perform that poorly that outside resources have to come in to boost you above a 3rd-party candidate (and there's a credible argument that the super-minority Republican Party of San Francisco are what pushed him over the top to give him the win over Gonzalez) you then become the strongest guy that can potentially be put forward to be the executive of California.

To be fair in that mayoral run off the Green Party candidate was an actually officeholder as a member of the board of supervisors. It's not like Newsom was running against a random third party perennial or something.

It's San Francisco! How many times did Nancy Pelosi have to get help to win a congressional election there against non-Democrats?

Local races are very different than federal and state ones. Officially the Mayor's seat is non-partisan and the elections come down to local issues. The Green Party can be competitive in local races in San Francisco in certain circumstances.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is how I'd vote:

Numero Uno: NO.
Numero Dos: RO KHANNA, representative for CA17

Why do you favor a Bernie style Dem over Faulconer

[Greedo punched first]

Recall elections aren’t officially nonpartisan. If Newsom survives, does he run for a second term?

[Holmes]

Recall elections aren’t officially nonpartisan. If Newsom survives, does he run for a second term?

I mean, surviving a recall a year before re-election is a pretty good mandate, so yes. 

[Greedo punched first]

Recall elections aren’t officially nonpartisan. If Newsom survives, does he run for a second term?

I mean, surviving a recall a year before re-election is a pretty good mandate, so yes. 

What if he just barely survives? It makes him look beatable.

[Schiff for Senate]

Recall elections aren’t officially nonpartisan. If Newsom survives, does he run for a second term?

I mean, surviving a recall a year before re-election is a pretty good mandate, so yes. 

What if he just barely survives? It makes him look beatable.

Then the Democrats should nominate someone else regardless of whether or not Newsom runs. 2022 will be redder than 2021 and they don't need someone who barely won in such a blue state. I'm sure there will be more than enough Democrats who can run to become CA's next governor. That's if Newsom survives by under 5%. If he survives by over 5% he may still not be a great candidate but he can still probably make it. Personally, though, if he makes it by less than 10 points it should be grounds for someone else to run, because even 10 points is very underwhelming for a California Democrat, and 10 points is something most unknown Democrats can probably make.

[Greedo punched first]

Recall elections aren’t officially nonpartisan. If Newsom survives, does he run for a second term?

I mean, surviving a recall a year before re-election is a pretty good mandate, so yes. 

What if he just barely survives? It makes him look beatable.

Then the Democrats should nominate someone else regardless of whether or not Newsom runs. 2022 will be redder than 2021 and they don't need someone who barely won in such a blue state. I'm sure there will be more than enough Democrats who can run to become CA's next governor. That's if Newsom survives by under 5%. If he survives by over 5% he may still not be a great candidate but he can still probably make it. Personally, though, if he makes it by less than 10 points it should be grounds for someone else to run, because even 10 points is very underwhelming for a California Democrat, and 10 points is something most unknown Democrats can probably make.

I think California 2022 will be bluer than 2021.

[Holmes]

Recall elections aren’t officially nonpartisan. If Newsom survives, does he run for a second term?

I mean, surviving a recall a year before re-election is a pretty good mandate, so yes. 

What if he just barely survives? It makes him look beatable.

Then the Democrats should nominate someone else regardless of whether or not Newsom runs. 2022 will be redder than 2021 and they don't need someone who barely won in such a blue state. I'm sure there will be more than enough Democrats who can run to become CA's next governor. That's if Newsom survives by under 5%. If he survives by over 5% he may still not be a great candidate but he can still probably make it. Personally, though, if he makes it by less than 10 points it should be grounds for someone else to run, because even 10 points is very underwhelming for a California Democrat, and 10 points is something most unknown Democrats can probably make.

Well, Dems can’t just nominate someone else with the top two primary system, unless you’re advocating for a D vs D general.

Not sure 2022 will be redder than 2021 in California though.

[Schiff for Senate]

This is how I'd vote:

Numero Uno: NO.
Numero Dos: RO KHANNA, representative for CA17

Why do you favor a Bernie style Dem over Faulconer

Because Khanna is Indian-American.

[Schiff for Senate]

Recall elections aren’t officially nonpartisan. If Newsom survives, does he run for a second term?

I mean, surviving a recall a year before re-election is a pretty good mandate, so yes. 

What if he just barely survives? It makes him look beatable.

Then the Democrats should nominate someone else regardless of whether or not Newsom runs. 2022 will be redder than 2021 and they don't need someone who barely won in such a blue state. I'm sure there will be more than enough Democrats who can run to become CA's next governor. That's if Newsom survives by under 5%. If he survives by over 5% he may still not be a great candidate but he can still probably make it. Personally, though, if he makes it by less than 10 points it should be grounds for someone else to run, because even 10 points is very underwhelming for a California Democrat, and 10 points is something most unknown Democrats can probably make.

Well, Dems can’t just nominate someone else with the top two primary system, unless you’re advocating for a D vs D general.

Not sure 2022 will be redder than 2021 in California though.

Recall elections aren’t officially nonpartisan. If Newsom survives, does he run for a second term?

I mean, surviving a recall a year before re-election is a pretty good mandate, so yes. 

What if he just barely survives? It makes him look beatable.

Then the Democrats should nominate someone else regardless of whether or not Newsom runs. 2022 will be redder than 2021 and they don't need someone who barely won in such a blue state. I'm sure there will be more than enough Democrats who can run to become CA's next governor. That's if Newsom survives by under 5%. If he survives by over 5% he may still not be a great candidate but he can still probably make it. Personally, though, if he makes it by less than 10 points it should be grounds for someone else to run, because even 10 points is very underwhelming for a California Democrat, and 10 points is something most unknown Democrats can probably make.

I think California 2022 will be bluer than 2021.

How come? Because of Afghanistan, COVID19 or something else?

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is how I'd vote:

Numero Uno: NO.
Numero Dos: RO KHANNA, representative for CA17

Why do you favor a Bernie style Dem over Faulconer

Because Khanna is Indian-American.

So am I, and I truly think he is one of the worst representatives in the country. The only Indian-American politician I have a positive opinion of is Nikki Haley and I have a massively negative opinion of Harris, Jindal, Jayapal and Khanna.

[Holmes]

Recall elections aren’t officially nonpartisan. If Newsom survives, does he run for a second term?

I mean, surviving a recall a year before re-election is a pretty good mandate, so yes. 

What if he just barely survives? It makes him look beatable.

Then the Democrats should nominate someone else regardless of whether or not Newsom runs. 2022 will be redder than 2021 and they don't need someone who barely won in such a blue state. I'm sure there will be more than enough Democrats who can run to become CA's next governor. That's if Newsom survives by under 5%. If he survives by over 5% he may still not be a great candidate but he can still probably make it. Personally, though, if he makes it by less than 10 points it should be grounds for someone else to run, because even 10 points is very underwhelming for a California Democrat, and 10 points is something most unknown Democrats can probably make.

I think California 2022 will be bluer than 2021.

How come? Because of Afghanistan or something else?

Why do you think it’ll be redder in 2022? California bucked both previous red waves in 2010 and 2014.

[Schiff for Senate]

Recall elections aren’t officially nonpartisan. If Newsom survives, does he run for a second term?

I mean, surviving a recall a year before re-election is a pretty good mandate, so yes.  

What if he just barely survives? It makes him look beatable.

Then the Democrats should nominate someone else regardless of whether or not Newsom runs. 2022 will be redder than 2021 and they don't need someone who barely won in such a blue state. I'm sure there will be more than enough Democrats who can run to become CA's next governor. That's if Newsom survives by under 5%. If he survives by over 5% he may still not be a great candidate but he can still probably make it. Personally, though, if he makes it by less than 10 points it should be grounds for someone else to run, because even 10 points is very underwhelming for a California Democrat, and 10 points is something most unknown Democrats can probably make.

I think California 2022 will be bluer than 2021.

How come? Because of Afghanistan or something else?

Why do you think it’ll be redder in 2022? California bucked both previous red waves in 2010 and 2014.

Arguably, 2010 and 2014 (certainly 2010) were closer than they should have been. If Newsom is so unpopular now there's no reason to suppose he'll be much more popular in a Biden midterm.

[Schiff for Senate]

This is how I'd vote:

Numero Uno: NO.
Numero Dos: RO KHANNA, representative for CA17

Why do you favor a Bernie style Dem over Faulconer

Because Khanna is Indian-American.

So am I, and I truly think he is one of the worst representatives in the country. The only Indian-American politician I have a positive opinion of is Nikki Haley and I have a massively negative opinion of Harris, Jindal, Jayapal and Khanna.

It's high time CA elected an Asian-American governor and Khanna seems like a good guy.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is how I'd vote:

Numero Uno: NO.
Numero Dos: RO KHANNA, representative for CA17

Why do you favor a Bernie style Dem over Faulconer

Because Khanna is Indian-American.

So am I, and I truly think he is one of the worst representatives in the country. The only Indian-American politician I have a positive opinion of is Nikki Haley and I have a massively negative opinion of Harris, Jindal, Jayapal and Khanna.

It's high time CA elected an Asian-American governor and Khanna seems like a good guy.

Why do you think Khanna would be a good governor though and why not write in Young Kim if thats the case

[Хahar 🤔]

I cannot think of any less insightful discussion than two blue avatars arguing about Asian-American representation; fortunately, it's also not at all relevant to this thread, so maybe take it somewhere else.

[Schiff for Senate]

This is how I'd vote:

Numero Uno: NO.
Numero Dos: RO KHANNA, representative for CA17

Why do you favor a Bernie style Dem over Faulconer

Because Khanna is Indian-American.

So am I, and I truly think he is one of the worst representatives in the country. The only Indian-American politician I have a positive opinion of is Nikki Haley and I have a massively negative opinion of Harris, Jindal, Jayapal and Khanna.

It's high time CA elected an Asian-American governor and Khanna seems like a good guy.

Why do you think Khanna would be a good governor though and why not write in Young Kim if thats the case

One big thing is that a key issue is COVID19 restrictions, and Kim will probably be less pro-mask than Ro Khanna. If a Republican is elected governor they will likely relax mask regulations, which will lead to a spike in cases.