NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

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Still think if AOC decided to run she'd be a strong candidate in the primary.

Actually, if Max Rose decides to jump in the Mayoral race, assuming he makes it past the primary, he'd be the strongest possible General Election candidate for the Democrats.

But neither AOC or Rose is particularly likely to run.

No thanks to Max Rose.

Why not? Max Rose is palatable to all of the wings of the Democratic Party. He represents Staten Island, the most conservative borough in NYC, so obviously he would be more moderate than Hakeem Jeffries or AOC.

Staten Island is absolutely not representative of the city in general, nobody's interested in electing a Republican pretending to be a Democrat and whose career can be summed up as "I used to be in the military" and "I don't much care for the current mayor". But it's absolutely what he wants, why else would he be attacking de Blasio every other day? I think he's got a gut feeling he's getting tossed out in November so he wants to move up to Gracie mansion, which will give him an even bigger platform to pretend to be a Democrat and tell everyone he used to be in the military.

You have a really strangely intense agenda against a guy who's governed as a completely generic centrist Democrat and wasn't around to make any particularly controversial votes.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Still think if AOC decided to run she'd be a strong candidate in the primary.

Actually, if Max Rose decides to jump in the Mayoral race, assuming he makes it past the primary, he'd be the strongest possible General Election candidate for the Democrats.

But neither AOC or Rose is particularly likely to run.

No thanks to Max Rose.

Why not? Max Rose is palatable to all of the wings of the Democratic Party. He represents Staten Island, the most conservative borough in NYC, so obviously he would be more moderate than Hakeem Jeffries or AOC.

Staten Island is absolutely not representative of the city in general, nobody's interested in electing a Republican pretending to be a Democrat and whose career can be summed up as "I used to be in the military" and "I don't much care for the current mayor". But it's absolutely what he wants, why else would he be attacking de Blasio every other day? I think he's got a gut feeling he's getting tossed out in November so he wants to move up to Gracie mansion, which will give him an even bigger platform to pretend to be a Democrat and tell everyone he used to be in the military.

You have a really strangely intense agenda against a guy who's governed as a completely generic centrist Democrat and wasn't around to make any particularly controversial votes.

I think the fact that he's generic and hasn't done anything novel or controversial is pretty clearly the criticism, there.

I mean, I don't think Rose would win the Mayoral election, nor do I think he's going to run. But the guy with a very telling screen name seems to REALLY dislike him. And lots of references to him serving in the military.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Shaun Donovan has an impressive network already, the "Obama Halo", and can run as an outsider who had nothing to do with the De Blasio era while still passing muster as a liberal Democrat. He might have the edge now.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/12/us/harold-heshy-tischler-custody-orthodox-jewish-protests-new-york/index.html

Outspoken protester Harold "Heshy" Tischler was taken into custody Sunday evening in connection with an alleged assault during protests against new anti-coronavirus restrictions in an Orthodox Jewish area of Brooklyn, New York police say.

Some members of the Orthodox Jewish community protested in the Borough Park neighborhood for multiple nights last week in response to the measures, which limit gatherings in houses of worship in areas identified as Covid-19 clusters.
Jewish Insider reporter Jacob Kornbluh claimed on a verified Twitter account that during protests Wednesday night he was brutally assaulted after Tischler "recognized me and ordered the crowd to chase me down the street."

Confirming Tischler's detention Sunday, a New York City Police Department spokesman said that charges of inciting a riot and unlawful imprisonment in connection with the incident surrounding Kornbluh are pending.

"The New York City Police Department Warrant Squad has taken Harold 'Heshy' Tischler into custody. He will be charged with inciting to riot and unlawful imprisonment in connection with an assault of a journalist that took place on October 7, 2020 in Brooklyn," the department said on Twitter.

CNN has made multiple attempts to reach Tischler, but has not received a response.
Tischler is a candidate for New York City Council, a supporter of President Trump, and an outspoken critic of social distancing restrictions, according to posts on his Facebook and Instagram accounts.

https://twitter.com/HeshyTischlerNY/status/1314625177565704192
There have been protests and riots for the past several days now, and Tischler's arrest adds fuel to the fire.

Tischler is running in the 48th City Council District.

What an absolute piece of crap. Bonus: he's not even Hasidic. I think he must be Modern Orthodox because he speaks Yiddish but he doesn't follow most of the traditions the Ultras do. Yet he still feels comfortable rallying them to protest against safety measures that will help them avoid more of the the deaths they experienced at the peak of the outbreak.

I remember Ray Goldfield was applauding him for leading the playground chain destructions back in the spring. Looks pretty bad now in retrospect.

I hadn't even heard of this goon until he started his riots this past week. I remember saluting Simcha Felder and Kalman Yeger for undoing the Mayor's illegal, ethnically targeted selected closing of parks and playgrounds in the summer. If he was there, he wasn't making a scene yet.

Obviously this idiot need to be prosecuted for his assault on a respected Jewish journalist, but the best way to prevent more idiots like him from emerging is to remove the man responsible for creating a hostile and dangerous atmosphere for religious Jews in NYC.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/12/us/harold-heshy-tischler-custody-orthodox-jewish-protests-new-york/index.html

Outspoken protester Harold "Heshy" Tischler was taken into custody Sunday evening in connection with an alleged assault during protests against new anti-coronavirus restrictions in an Orthodox Jewish area of Brooklyn, New York police say.

Some members of the Orthodox Jewish community protested in the Borough Park neighborhood for multiple nights last week in response to the measures, which limit gatherings in houses of worship in areas identified as Covid-19 clusters.
Jewish Insider reporter Jacob Kornbluh claimed on a verified Twitter account that during protests Wednesday night he was brutally assaulted after Tischler "recognized me and ordered the crowd to chase me down the street."

Confirming Tischler's detention Sunday, a New York City Police Department spokesman said that charges of inciting a riot and unlawful imprisonment in connection with the incident surrounding Kornbluh are pending.

"The New York City Police Department Warrant Squad has taken Harold 'Heshy' Tischler into custody. He will be charged with inciting to riot and unlawful imprisonment in connection with an assault of a journalist that took place on October 7, 2020 in Brooklyn," the department said on Twitter.

CNN has made multiple attempts to reach Tischler, but has not received a response.
Tischler is a candidate for New York City Council, a supporter of President Trump, and an outspoken critic of social distancing restrictions, according to posts on his Facebook and Instagram accounts.

https://twitter.com/HeshyTischlerNY/status/1314625177565704192
There have been protests and riots for the past several days now, and Tischler's arrest adds fuel to the fire.

Tischler is running in the 48th City Council District.

What an absolute piece of crap. Bonus: he's not even Hasidic. I think he must be Modern Orthodox because he speaks Yiddish but he doesn't follow most of the traditions the Ultras do. Yet he still feels comfortable rallying them to protest against safety measures that will help them avoid more of the the deaths they experienced at the peak of the outbreak.

I remember Ray Goldfield was applauding him for leading the playground chain destructions back in the spring. Looks pretty bad now in retrospect.

I hadn't even heard of this goon until he started his riots this past week. I remember saluting Simcha Felder and Kalman Yeger for undoing the Mayor's illegal, ethnically targeted selected closing of parks and playgrounds in the summer. If he was there, he wasn't making a scene yet.

Obviously this idiot need to be prosecuted for his assault on a respected Jewish journalist, but the best way to prevent more idiots like him from emerging is to remove the man responsible for creating a hostile and dangerous atmosphere for religious Jews in NYC.

Hahahahaha this is delusional. You justify violence by blaming it on the mayor, and you still support their playground stunt because you care more about dunking on him than about adherence to safety measures.

Hogan's a bit too progressive for you.

"Riots are the language of the unheard", I thought,

The Mayor certainly didn't seem very concerned with violence when Jews were getting assaulted on the streets daily pre-COVID. Almost as if it's not street violence he cares about, it's Jews acting like they have rights.

Cuomo seems to want to get outbreaks under control. De Blasio wants us to know we have no power or rights in his city. Only one of those goals is workable.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

C'mon, now, do you really think that de Blasio would be treating this differently if it was a different religious group recklessly endangering lives? Just because you're Jewish doesn't give you a pass to kill people.

There's an entire lengthy thread in USGD about how De Blasio has been treating the Jewish community very differently, down to straight-up illegal enforcement of laws that had been suspended selectively against this community or were never laws at all, in the aftermath of allowing a full year of violent attacks against Hasidic Jews to go on uninterrupted.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/exclusive-carlos-menchaca-confirms-mayoral-campaign.html

New York City Council Member Carlos Menchaca confirmed to City & State that he is running for mayor in the 2021 Democratic primary and will officially announce his candidacy on Thursday. As has been previously reported, Menchaca has filed with the New York City Campaign Finance Board, and the announcement has been widely anticipated since Menchaca hinted at it on Twitter earlier this month.

Menchaca, who has recently drawn attention for defeating a proposed rezoning of Industry City, represents a diverse, largely Latino district spanning Sunset Park, Red Hook, Greenwood Heights and slivers of Windsor Terrace, Dyker Heights and Borough Park. He is the first Mexican-American elected official in New York state and, according to his website, he is also the first openly gay elected office holder from Brooklyn.

What are Menchaca's chances in the primary?

He'll be the one candidate explicitly running to De Blasio's left and is likely to get endorsements from AOC and other far-left city politicians as it goes on, so he'll be a factor for a while. Good chance he even makes the runoff if the field doesn't coalesce, but he'll likely lose a one-on-one battle with Stringer, Donovan, Adams, or any of the other big guns.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I don't think a Republican has a chance here

Giuliani and Trump severed the NYGOP brand here

Giuliani would be chased out of NYC these days

A Republican could win in the 2030s, maybe

Any smart centrist Republican candidate would run as a Democrat. That seems to be what Ray McGuire is doing.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Here's my very rough breakdown of how things stand. Undeclared candidates are italicized. Potential dark horses have an asterisk.


Frontrunners
Scott Stringer, Eric Adams, Shaun Donovan
Competitors
Maya Wiley*, Raymond McGuire, Max Rose, Andrew Yang
Stragglers
Diane Morales*, Loree Sutton, Carlos Menchaca*, Kathryn Garcia
Bottom Feeders
Eddie Cullen, Aaron Foldenauer, Quanda Francis, Max Kaplan, Julia Qing Reaves, Joycelyn Taylor

I'd probably move Menchaca up to the second tier already just because he's the candidate most likely to get AOC's endorsement if he can raise enough money to be a competitor, but this is largely where I have the list as well. Good to see my instincts about Donovan aren't alone here. He seems like the candidate most likely to take advantage of De Blasio fatigue while not being easy to pigeonhole.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Here's my very rough breakdown of how things stand. Undeclared candidates are italicized. Potential dark horses have an asterisk.


Frontrunners
Scott Stringer, Eric Adams, Shaun Donovan
Competitors
Maya Wiley*, Raymond McGuire, Max Rose, Andrew Yang
Stragglers
Diane Morales*, Loree Sutton, Carlos Menchaca*, Kathryn Garcia
Bottom Feeders
Eddie Cullen, Aaron Foldenauer, Quanda Francis, Max Kaplan, Julia Qing Reaves, Joycelyn Taylor

Add Ray McGuire, Robert Holden and Curtis Sliwa as competitors. If crime increases in 2021, they will be relevant. Ray McGuire is a Black centrist running in a leftwing mood in NYC, if he is seen as an Bloomberg-esque candidate who can turn the economy in NYC around

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/15/nyregion/ray-mcguire-mayor-nyc.html

Sliwa is a meme candidate at best. Would he be running as a Republican? If so, put him in the same category as John Catsimatidis.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Did you guys know that Eric Adams once accused Bronx Borough President Herman Badillo of being a race traitor because he was married to a white Jewish woman? I gotta say, the more I learn about this guy, the less I like him. I'd take Donovan over him if those were the only two choices.

Jeez...that’s the kind of comment that ought to be career-ending.

Yeah, dude has some really nasty populist streaks that are going to sink him down the stretch, between this and the "Go back to Ohio" comments. He's not what New York needs right now by a long stretch.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Yeah, this has been an embarrassing rollout.

Honestly, at this point I see little to make me believe this isn't a series of boomlets until the electorate coalesces behind Scott Stringer or Shaun Donovan.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Yeah, okay, this doesn't help, Shaun.

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-nyc-mayoral-race-shaun-donovan-biden-alums-20210126-geb5ajdsi5b47njrek6ew65oru-story.html#nt=barker

I am genuinely curious about how this is in any way a gaffe or error.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Yang is already starting to feel Trump-esque - not in policy or personality, but in "lol nothing matters" mode. He's had like five campaign-ending gaffes in a week and will probably go up by two points in the polls.

Although, actually, that may be more Biden-esque given how low-stakes most of his gaffes are.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

At this point, I think either Yang leads wire to wire, or he slips enough that Scott Stringer's likely status as someone no one actually dislikes pushes him over the line.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

The only endorsement I Care about is the DSA.

They're probably gonna endorse Morales, with an outside chance of Stringer? I'm not sure.

I suppose Menchaca is considered too much of a no-hoper. He's the only one that's 100% in their wheelhouse.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

And that's enough for me to go full #YangGang.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Yang ain't going down. He's lapping the field.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Yang is obviously the favorite, but this is actually a good poll for Scott. Moralesmentum is seemingly non existent, and he's ahead of Wiley. When his machine kicks into full gear, he can become Yang's primary competitor.

Yeah, I actually do consider him the one remaining contender besides Yang, simply because he's the candidate most likely to be a lot of people's second choice. I don't know if it'll be enough unless he manages to close the gap with Yang and move into second, but everyone else seems boxed out.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Me: Andrew Yang is not terrible

Everyone Else on this forum: So you have chosen death

Thank you for taking the heat off me!

While I think I would have preferred Shaun Donovan or Kathryn Garcia due to their governing experience, he's still definitely one of the candidates I'm most comfortable with.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

If anyone has a slim chance for surging, it's Wiley or Garcia. Both are probably not dead last on too many people's rankings. Morales and Adams likely have a lot of first-and-last rankings, and that candidate isn't winning a ranked-choice race.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

So what are the chances for the candidates?

At this point? Basically 50-50 for Yang and Adams. Morales is the only other candidate trending up at the moment, but she has yet to top 10% in any poll and mostly seems like a pet candidate of the Extremely Online left. She'd have a slim chance in a standard race with seven people if high turnout among that wing happened, but not with ranked-choice.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

So what are the chances for the candidates?

At this point? Basically 50-50 for Yang and Adams. Morales is the only other candidate trending up at the moment, but she has yet to top 10% in any poll and mostly seems like a pet candidate of the Extremely Online left. She'd have a slim chance in a standard race with seven people if high turnout among that wing happened, but not with ranked-choice.

What about Wiley?

She's been consistently unable to get any real traction. She reminds me a lot of Harris and Warren in the POTUS race, in that she looks great on paper but is consistently not people's first choice. She might climb up in ranked choice voting - she's in a pretty good position to come third - but there's no real way for her to break the top two right now.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1392655558520496132?s=20
I guarantee at least one of the questions in the debate will be about his Israel tweets. Wonder how much backlash (if any) he gets from the other candidates.

Crazy how this became a major issue for a mayoral election in an AMERICAN city.

Oh well, imma root for him anyways 

Morales is likely to be the only one to pick a fight over it. Wiley might disagree with his first tweet, but probably not his second. And Stringer has bigger things to worry about.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

#Garciamentum

Donovan surpassing Wiley is interesting, but probably meaningless.