New Jersey politics thread

[Suburbia]

Pollster said it best in May 2020, let's have a thread on NJ politics and the history of it.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=319775.50

Let's start off with why South Jersey Democrats are more conservative than Central Jersey and North Jersey Democrats?

Van Drew, Sweeney, Greenwald, James Beach.......

[slothdem]

conservative than Central Jersey and North Jersey Democrats?

They are whiter and less educated (and less jewish).

[Never Made it to Graceland]

conservative than Central Jersey and North Jersey Democrats?

They are whiter and less educated (and less jewish).

This.

George Wallace got double digits in multiple south New Jersey counties.

[hurricanehink]

conservative than Central Jersey and North Jersey Democrats?

They are whiter and less educated (and less jewish).

Speaking as part of the minority of well-educated South Jerseyans, the biggest problem is isolation. Sure, NJ is an integral part of the ACELA corridor, but parts of extreme southern NJ, and eastern NJ (from Atlantic City to Asbury Park) are fairly isolated. You don’t have the same trends as in Philly, DC, and NYC, or even along the New Jersey Turnpike corridor. I’m in Atlantic County. I’m surrounded by either second homes of Philly residents, or I’m surrounded by locals who live in a summer mindset, as tourism (and gambling) are some of the only industries near me. Near Vineland/Millville/Bridgeton, you have lots of former factory towns that have been hollowed out, with agriculture as a prominent industry.

For locals who intend to stay locals, why rack up a ton of debt going to college when you can inherit your family’s business of several generations? Also, the average millennial who took advantage of the nation’s second best education system is leaving the state at a faster rate than any other state. This could eventually lead to a brain drain.

[LabourJersey]

conservative than Central Jersey and North Jersey Democrats?

They are whiter and less educated (and less jewish).

Speaking as part of the minority of well-educated South Jerseyans, the biggest problem is isolation. Sure, NJ is an integral part of the ACELA corridor, but parts of extreme southern NJ, and eastern NJ (from Atlantic City to Asbury Park) are fairly isolated. You don’t have the same trends as in Philly, DC, and NYC, or even along the New Jersey Turnpike corridor. I’m in Atlantic County. I’m surrounded by either second homes of Philly residents, or I’m surrounded by locals who live in a summer mindset, as tourism (and gambling) are some of the only industries near me. Near Vineland/Millville/Bridgeton, you have lots of former factory towns that have been hollowed out, with agriculture as a prominent industry.

For locals who intend to stay locals, why rack up a ton of debt going to college when you can inherit your family’s business of several generations? Also, the average millennial who took advantage of the nation’s second best education system is leaving the state at a faster rate than any other state. This could eventually lead to a brain drain.

Pretty much this. The isolation is a very real thing, even from an economic standpoint. Most of South Jersey is based around the tourist economy, and is very distinct from the very white collar eocnomy of the rest of the state. The politics of tourist-heavy areas tend to be conservative when the minority population is not very large or geographically confined in a few areas (like the Jersey Shore). You see in other countries too: lots of hotbeds for UKIP support in 2015 & Brexit support in 2016 came from English seaside areas. Populations of these areas are older, have more disposable income, tend to be whiter than average, and feel removed from the modern economy of their nations usually.

[Roll Roons]

What's the update on legislative redistricting? Will they draw new maps for 2021 or keep the current ones for one more cycle?

[LabourJersey]

What's the update on legislative redistricting? Will they draw new maps for 2021 or keep the current ones for one more cycle?

New Jersey will actually vote on this at the November election, as it's being asked as a referendum item.

I'm not sure which way that would go.

[lfromnj]

I'm voting no for the chaos.

[Suburbia]

Does Bill Baroni have a political future?

It didn’t hurt that his opponent made a critical error. Incumbent Democrat Gary Guear claimed Baroni lied in campaign literature by saying he was a lifelong resident of Hamilton Township when in fact he was born in Jacksonville, Florida. The charge forced Baroni to reveal that his birth mother was an unwed Irish immigrant who only went to Florida to have her baby, and that he was adopted days later by a couple from New Jersey. The revelation only enamored Baroni to the working-class voters of his district. “I still have people coming up to me with their little kids, saying, ‘Senator Baroni is just like you. He’s adopted, too,’” Baroni says.

But Baroni’s appeal goes well beyond his stamina. Aside from being handsome, colleagues say he is witty, exceedingly bright, and can be quite eloquent.

https://njmonthly.com/articles/jersey-living/power-issue-bill-baroni/

[Suburbia]

Assemblyman Bill Baroni, whose name has already been mentioned as a possible Republican candidate for governor in 2009, said that the party needed to broaden its appeal to traditionally Democratic voters, particularly socially conservative union members, and rebuild its infrastructure at the same time.
"It's not just message, but method," said Mr. Baroni, fresh off a trend-defying victory in his Democrat-leaning district in Mercer County. Mr. Baroni says the model for Republicans between now and the elections of 2006 and 2007, when the fate of the entire Legislature is at stake, is what Democrats did to regroup after former Gov. Jim Florio's loss to Ms. Whitman in 1993.

NJGOP should listen to Baroni.

They need to win Sayreville, Old Bridge, Woodbridge, Hamilton---places that Trump won in 2016, but where Biden will win in 2020

[S019]

I'm voting no for the chaos.

You do know that the new maps would probably be even less friendly to Republicans, given they'll get one North Jersey sink, rather than 3 possibly competitive seats, if it's a Biden midterm. And only one of NJ-02 or NJ-03 would probably be R, while in the current map both could be R, in a Biden midterm. Depending on candidate recruitment, we could end up back at 6-6, if it's a very bad Biden midterm and the current maps stay.

[Suburbia]

I'm voting no for the chaos.

You do know that the new maps would probably be even less friendly to Republicans, given they'll get one North Jersey sink, rather than 3 possibly competitive seats, if it's a Biden midterm. And only one of NJ-02 or NJ-03 would probably be R, while in the current map both could be R, in a Biden midterm. Depending on candidate recruitment, we could end up back at 6-6, if it's a very bad Biden midterm and the current maps stay.

Do you think Bill Baroni has a path in NJ politics?

[Suburbia]

So a lot of people are saying that the NJGOP is becoming more ideological and that will hamper them from winning the governorship.....is this true?

[Senator Incitatus]

I know Bill Baroni personally, and he has no future in politics. Stop posting in this thread.

[Suburbia]

I know Bill Baroni personally, and he has no future in politics. Stop posting in this thread.

I created the thread.

Baroni should have never hung around with Christie.


Other than that, do you think Republicans could carry Middlesex County again in a gubernatorial election?

[Roll Roons]

I know Bill Baroni personally, and he has no future in politics. Stop posting in this thread.

I created the thread.

Baroni should have never hung around with Christie.


Other than that, do you think Republicans could carry Middlesex County again in a gubernatorial election?

Probably not in the short term, unless it's a landslide like Christie's 2013 reelection. Down the road, who knows how coalitions change or what new trends might emerge.

[Suburbia]

I know Bill Baroni personally, and he has no future in politics. Stop posting in this thread.

I created the thread.

Baroni should have never hung around with Christie.


Other than that, do you think Republicans could carry Middlesex County again in a gubernatorial election?

Probably not in the short term, unless it's a landslide like Christie's 2013 reelection. Down the road, who knows how coalitions change or what new trends might emerge.

Christie won Middlesex in 2009 as well....he flipped Woodbridge, South Amboy, etc.

[Heebie Jeebie]

2021 Predictions:

Governor:  Phil Murphy
Lt. Governor:  Sheila Oliver

[Suburbia]

2021 prediction: Murphy-Oliver defeats Ciattarelli-Corrado 55% to 43%

Murphy becomes the first Democratic governor since 1977 to win reelection.

In 2022 or 2023, Murphy is considered for Secy. of State