NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[pikachu]

Truly a paper under the iron grip of George Norcross and his organization. And that's not even getting to the JVD party switch coverage last year, which was very critical. Also, it's not like the Inky has that much influence over anything these days...

That is...a very Norcross-inoffensive piece that covers Philadelphia corruption far more than it touches New Jersey. And that is precisely the type of coverage that political bosses all over the country want: not ignoring, but not threatening. He has nothing to gain by the Inquirer going the way of the NY Post.

As for JVD, this rather silly op-ed is the most critical piece on his party switch that I was able to find.

Not sure what that last sentence means, the Inquirer probably has the second-highest influence over South Jersey of any media outlet after Fox News (which probably has a solid plurality in most of the country).

It's a local newspaper in the year 2020 which has been in a state of financial calamity for the last few decades, been sold multiple times (including by Norcross), barely has any opinion staff writers, and is less used in South Jersey than nj.com and 101.5, let alone national outlets. Like they've started even cutting sportswriters - including Eagles writers - because of financial issues.

Also, the Norcross stuff on the paper just sounds kind of like a conspiracy theory? As far as I'm aware, has no connection to Norcross and he hasn't owned it in six years - in fact, he lost an auction for the paper back then to a guy, by all accounts, who hated his guts - to the extent that he sued Norcross when he fired an editor during their co-ownership and launched a PR war against him. It's now owned by a foundation which Katz's business partner (who fwiw also seemed to hate Norcross) set up, and maybe Norcross has some influence over that, but as far as I'm aware, there's nothing to indicate it. And considering that Norcross started his own local news site that's still run by his daughter after the auction mess, I don't know why he'd be bothering with the Inquirer now.

Even beyond the ownership drama, when you search up "george norcross philadelphia inquirer", you get:

• How power broker George Norcross and friends got waterfront land for cheap
  
• Camden loses again in George Norcross and Sue Altman power battle
• Under George Norcross’ autocratic rule, Camden has become a full-blown kleptocracy
  
• Sue Altman just rocked New Jersey politics. She’s only getting started.
  

Maybe I underrate Norcross's political acumen and he's playing some version of 4D chess, but to have a newspaper you control run an investigative story against you, call you an autocrat and kleptocrat in a headline, and write flattering profile of the woman who's apparently made it her life mission to take you down is an interesting choice of tactics.

[CookieDamage]

Unless dropped by the county committees (or redistricted together), no NJ incumbents will ever get primaried.

If Norcross goes through with his threats, it's possible.

Norcross's influence is dwindling at this point. Him and Sweeney looked like fools when Van Drew switch parties; they nursed Van Drew's rise in the Legislature and urged him to get into the race. Also is Amy Kennedy beats Bridget Callahan Harrison in NJ-02 (Harrison is the Sweeney/Norcross candidate, albeit it's not that tight a connection) it will continue to show Norcross's grip on South Jersey isn't strong.

Back to the original question:Ciattarelli is probably going to be the GOP nominee, since the bench for Republicans right now is very thin, and in the wake of COVID most are going to take a pass on trying to oust Murphy. I think the race is Likely D for now: could easily become Safe D so long as Murphy continues to handle things as well as he has.

Callahan Harrison teaches at my former university. Never took a class of hers tho.

[Flo 2.0]

Yeah, not gonna lie, Murphy is in a good state right now -- speaking solely electorally. His approval ratings at the moment are high, he is getting good marks for his handling of COVID, and he's the chairman of the DGA right now. He's honestly very safe in his position right now and is likely going to win by double digits with a Trump or Biden presidency.

[Pollster]

Truly a paper under the iron grip of George Norcross and his organization. And that's not even getting to the JVD party switch coverage last year, which was very critical. Also, it's not like the Inky has that much influence over anything these days...

That is...a very Norcross-inoffensive piece that covers Philadelphia corruption far more than it touches New Jersey. And that is precisely the type of coverage that political bosses all over the country want: not ignoring, but not threatening. He has nothing to gain by the Inquirer going the way of the NY Post.

As for JVD, this rather silly op-ed is the most critical piece on his party switch that I was able to find.

Not sure what that last sentence means, the Inquirer probably has the second-highest influence over South Jersey of any media outlet after Fox News (which probably has a solid plurality in most of the country).

snip

You're misunderstanding. It is in the machine's (and every political machine's) interest to only maintain a minimal amount of public support. The coverage of Norcross doesn't matter so long as the elected officials in his grip don't have their holds on their seats impeded, and his patrons aren't impacted. He doesn't care what the papers are saying about himself as long as the worst he continues to get from Trenton is a slap on the wrist, and the business and tax perks keep coming in. It's very similar to Harvey Weinstein's longtime strategy of letting the media attack him as long as they didn't damage his films' box office performance and his own bottom line (until of course Weinstein became a symbol of something much larger). It is classic political boss/machine behavior - Tammany Hall functioned essentially the same way with the Times and the Sun (in its day).

The Inquirer's situation and struggles are not easily comparable to other local media outlets. It is in the unique position of being a local paper whose readership is disproportionately outside of the state it is based in for reasons outside of its control (this impacts its ability to function as a PA-based business while still appealing to its largely NJ audience). South Jerseyans are way more exposed to the Inquirer than many realize: the physical papers are often available at commuter bus/train stations (in a commuter-heavy state), diners, public beaches, and hotels and casinos (in a region where this a huge part of the economy). It remains popular with suburbanites and working-class folks outside of Camden and AC and continues to poll highly as trusted and well-liked in the NJ share of the Philadelphia media market.

I really did not intend to derail this thread with discussion about the details of NJ machine politics. If anybody wants to continue on this topic I'd suggest we start a new thread or converse privately, and keep this thread focused on news and discussion of the active gubernatorial race.

[Suburbia]

Yea, Lance and Frelinghuysen are retired from politics.

It's going to be Ciattarelli vs. Murphy and Murphy wins by 10 points or so.

The NJGOP can rebound in 2025 or 2029, but they have to focus on property taxes.


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=334952.225

[NewYorkExpress]

New Jersey will probably be closer than Virginia, but that says more about the state of the Republican Party in Virginia than it does about anything going on in New Jersey.

Neither state is a particularly likely pickup for Republicans (though Thomas Kean could make it interesting, unless of course he wins his Congressional race, in which case he's obviously not running.)

[slothdem]

Neither state is a particularly likely pickup for Republicans (though Thomas Kean could make it interesting, unless of course he wins his Congressional race, in which case he's obviously not running.)

The fact that TKJ opted for a congressional run against an inoffensive Democrat during a Democratic wave year over a shot at governor should tell you all you need to know about how vulnerable Murphy is in 2021.

[Suburbia]

He may be tainted because of Christie, but would Bill Baroni be a good choice?

He is fairly centrist for a Republican....

https://njmonthly.com/articles/jersey-living/power-issue-bill-baroni/

[Suburbia]

Neither state is a particularly likely pickup for Republicans (though Thomas Kean could make it interesting, unless of course he wins his Congressional race, in which case he's obviously not running.)

The fact that TKJ opted for a congressional run against an inoffensive Democrat during a Democratic wave year over a shot at governor should tell you all you need to know about how vulnerable Murphy is in 2021.

This.

Murphy signed tax increases on the rich yesterday, and a lot of Republicans are angry.

But Murphy will win by 5-20 points in 2021.

[Lord Admirale]

With tax hikes coming, I’m not so confident in Murphy’s chances. If he faces a moderate R like Bob Hugin he’s in a competitive race. Also, keep in mind that New Jersey typically votes the opposite way of who’s in the White House. He’s popular right now, but what fueled Christie’s landslide in 2013 was his national notoriety. Andrew Cuomo has taken that role in the pandemic, not Phil Murphy.

At this point, assuming Biden is president, New Jersey is a tossup for governor. If Trump somehow wins re-election, it’s safe D.

[Suburbia]

With tax hikes coming, I’m not so confident in Murphy’s chances. If he faces a moderate R like Bob Hugin he’s in a competitive race. Also, keep in mind that New Jersey typically votes the opposite way of who’s in the White House. He’s popular right now, but what fueled Christie’s landslide in 2013 was his national notoriety. Andrew Cuomo has taken that role in the pandemic, not Phil Murphy.

At this point, assuming Biden is president, New Jersey is a tossup for governor. If Trump somehow wins re-election, it’s safe D.

This is something Democrats don't understand. People don't really like taxes. I think Murphy wins regardless but if Biden wins it may be Lean D.

[Lord Admirale]

With tax hikes coming, I’m not so confident in Murphy’s chances. If he faces a moderate R like Bob Hugin he’s in a competitive race. Also, keep in mind that New Jersey typically votes the opposite way of who’s in the White House. He’s popular right now, but what fueled Christie’s landslide in 2013 was his national notoriety. Andrew Cuomo has taken that role in the pandemic, not Phil Murphy.

At this point, assuming Biden is president, New Jersey is a tossup for governor. If Trump somehow wins re-election, it’s safe D.

I’m not sure, New Jersey’s economy keeps getting worse and worse and tax hikes will crush it.
This is something Democrats don't understand. People don't really like taxes. I think Murphy wins regardless but if Biden wins it may be Lean D.

[Suburbia]

With tax hikes coming, I’m not so confident in Murphy’s chances. If he faces a moderate R like Bob Hugin he’s in a competitive race. Also, keep in mind that New Jersey typically votes the opposite way of who’s in the White House. He’s popular right now, but what fueled Christie’s landslide in 2013 was his national notoriety. Andrew Cuomo has taken that role in the pandemic, not Phil Murphy.

At this point, assuming Biden is president, New Jersey is a tossup for governor. If Trump somehow wins re-election, it’s safe D.

I’m not sure, New Jersey’s economy keeps getting worse and worse and tax hikes will crush it.
This is something Democrats don't understand. People don't really like taxes. I think Murphy wins regardless but if Biden wins it may be Lean D.

Why is NJ's economy so sluggish? Even in good national economic times?

[RRusso1982]

Murphy is a shoe-in.

Wasn't Old Man Bush a shoe-in for a second term in the Spring of 1991 after the Gulf War ended and he had 90% approval ratings?

[Suburbia]

Murphy is a shoe-in.

Wasn't Old Man Bush a shoe-in for a second term in the Spring of 1991 after the Gulf War ended and he had 90% approval ratings?

This.

New Jersey is not NY. Cuomo or Hochul is a shoo-in unless Harry Wilson runs in NY.

Right now, the motor vehicles department all over NJ is having long lines and frustration. The weather is getting chiller and people don't want to get up at 5 am to drive all the way to the DMV station and wait in a long line.

Murphy needs to get serious about this. If Bob Hugin runs and spends money to knock Ciattarelli out of the race, it could be competitive, but at the end of the day, I see Murphy winning reelection.

Lean/Likely D.

[cg41386]

He may be tainted because of Christie, but would Bill Baroni be a good choice?

He is fairly centrist for a Republican....

https://njmonthly.com/articles/jersey-living/power-issue-bill-baroni/

He was convicted (no idea why it was thrown out) and lost his law license. No.

[Suburbia]

South Asian American engineer Hirsh Singh is "pissed at Trump losing" and will run for governor in 2021.

Singh is a perennial candidate.

https://www.insidernj.com/pissed-off-singh-announces-second-bid-nj-governor/

[Suburbia]

I don't even know if Ciattarelli can win the nomination.....

He's better off running against Malinowski in 2022

Bramnick or Steinhardt could win the nomination

But any NJGOPer will lose to Murphy unless property taxes soar and Biden has middling approval ratings in October 2021

They don't poll this race often

A NJ GOPer won't win the governorship until 2025 or 2029

[Roll Roons]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/bramnick-wont-run-for-governor/

Bramnick out of the governor's race, and will most likely run for reelection to the Assembly.

[Pollster]

Bramnick may have been the best shot the NJ GOP had at holding enough Romney/Clinton/Biden and Romney/Trump/Biden voters while also peeling off enough soft Democrats to win.

Hard to see who's left on the bench, unless they go for somebody from the private sector who we don't know about yet.

[Suburbia]

Kean or Bramnick could run in 2025 if Murphy wins again in 2021 but they may be old news by then....

Kean and Bramnick have been part of the NJGOP structure since 2007 and they have not made any gains at the legislative level.

NJGOP chair Doug Steinhardt announces he is running for governor

https://www.nj.com/politics/2020/12/nj-republican-chairman-running-for-governor.html

He probably wins the nomination....

Hugin, Kean, Bramnick, or Ciattarelli could beat Malinowski in 2022---they are all dying breed of central Jersey Republicans in the mold of Bob Franks.

[Suburbia]

Bramnick may have been the best shot the NJ GOP had at holding enough Romney/Clinton/Biden and Romney/Trump/Biden voters while also peeling off enough soft Democrats to win.

Hard to see who's left on the bench, unless they go for somebody from the private sector who we don't know about yet.

Al Leiter.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Murphy wins by 8-9%. Bookmark this.

[Suburbia]

Murphy wins by 8-9%. Bookmark this.

This. Lean D, until I see the NJGOP field a good candidate.

No one can say Ciattarelli's name.

Murphy 53
Ciattarelli 45

Murphy 51
Steinhardt 46

Murphy 55
Singh 44

2025 or 2029 will be the NJGOP's year.

The only one who can beat Murphy is Shaun Golden or Joe Piscopo.

[Roll Roons]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/cardinale-still-intends-to-seek-re-election/

Republican State Senator Gerald Cardinale of Bergen County will run for reelection next year at the age of 87. I don't know how people do it.