Rate NE-02

[VAR]

?

[Upstater]

Tilt R.

[Yellowhammer]

Safe dem

[Suburbia]

Lean R.

As of now, Bacon wins 52-47

[The Arizonan]

Safe dem

More like Lean Democratic.

[TML]

The Democratic candidate in this race now has more name recognition and institutional support compared to two years ago. That could very well make all the difference this time around.

[Hope For A New Era]

Pres: Likely D

House: Tossup

[SnowLabrador]

Lean R.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Bacon is trying to run as far away from Trump as possible. Despite voting like a congressman from the rural South, I have not seen explicit mentions of Trump from Bacon in quite some time. He's trying to run as the goody-two-shoes conservative "bipartisan" "moderate" again. His current campaign seems to consist of: concern trolling about things such as Kara Eastman's platform, how Eastman was "sexist" against Ann Ashford, how he's vaguely "bipartisan", and how Eastman won't condemn Portland Antifa or whatever the latest "liberal mob" is.

Bacon's not exactly trying to sell the Republican ticket; he's trying to make Eastman as toxic as possible. Unfortunately, NE-02 has moderate hero disease in its DNA, and loves to split tickets in the event that one candidate is made out to be "too mean and too radical for Nebraska" .

I found it hard to expect a Trump-Ashford split in NE-02 in 2016; people voting for Trump probably didn't give a damn about how moderate Ashford was. They wanted the Republicans in full power. However, #trends and the "time for a change" mentality may have NE-02 choose to kick both Trump and Bacon out off office, just as NE-02 narrowly chose to reject the Democrats in 2016. Naturally, in districts as close as this, changes in the mood of the electorate combined with the suburban trends over the past four years could cause a sizable swing in this district. Still, with there being little polling released for this district, and considering its past history, I'd peg NE-02 as a tossup as of now.

[Nyvin]

Probably one of the few authentic tossups in the country.

[Xing]

Pure Toss-Up. I fully expect Biden to win here, and Bacon was hilariously overrated in 2018.

[MT Treasurer]

I’ll be "bold" and say Lean D. Biden's margin in district is going to surprise a lot of people, and I don’t see Representative Bacon™ outperforming Trump by enough %-points to hold it for the GOP, especially now that Democrats are seriously contesting the seat (triaging her in 2018 was really embarrassing).

[VAR]

I’ll be "bold" and say Lean D. Biden's margin in district is going to surprise a lot of people, and I don’t see Representative Bacon™ outperforming Trump by enough %-points to hold it for the GOP, especially now that Democrats are seriously contesting the seat (triaging her in 2018 was really embarrassing).

Isn’t Eastman leading by 1% in her internals? I don’t see how that’s Lean D.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Still tilt/lean R.I think Bacon being an inoffensive incumbent will be enough to barely put him over the edge again. Eastman isn't a great challenger, and even her own internals barely show her up. I do think Biden will win NE-2, possible by more than we expect.

[brucejoel99]

Tilt D, because the DCCC actually seems to be putting in the work to help Eastman this time around. (Had they cared 2 years ago, she'd be an incumbent right now.)

[MT Treasurer]

I’ll be "bold" and say Lean D. Biden's margin in district is going to surprise a lot of people, and I don’t see Representative Bacon™ outperforming Trump by enough %-points to hold it for the GOP, especially now that Democrats are seriously contesting the seat (triaging her in 2018 was really embarrassing).

Isn’t Eastman leading by 1% in her internals? I don’t see how that’s Lean D.

I wonder if we’re starting to see a trend of Democratic candidates releasing internal polls showing them underperforming the top of the ticket by a suspiciously and implausibly large margin to signal to supporters + donors/national Democrats that their race needs more investment/donations, which might also explain the weird CA-25 poll released by the Smith campaign. I was admittedly basing the rating more on the fundamentals than some of the polling for this race, and while I do believe that there’s a gap between support for Biden and support for Eastman in the district right now, I also think it will close significantly before election day. It’s not impossible for Bacon to win, but I wouldn’t bet on there being this much split-ticket voting when all is said and done, and it’ll be really difficult for him to pull off another win in this environment. My prediction would be Biden +6-7, Eastman +3-4.

[YE]

Tossup but I think Eastman is a small favorite.

[Gracile]

I wonder if we’re starting to see a trend of Democratic candidates releasing internal polls showing them underperforming the top of the ticket by a suspiciously and implausibly large margin to signal to supporters + donors/national Democrats that their race needs more investment/donations, which might also explain the weird CA-25 poll released by the Smith campaign.

This is also probably the reason why we've seen so few Democratic internals from Clinton-won districts that flipped in 2018 and are on the outer tier of competitiveness this year based on conventional wisdom.

[politicallefty]

I said Tilt D (so very barely too), mostly because I think Biden will win it by a few points, but it's an extremely polarized district at the Congressional level this decade. It is a rather strange district though for it to be a Democratic gain in 2014 only to fall in 2016 and not be regained in 2018.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Lean D. Candidate quality doesnt matter when you have an incompetent maniac running the country and becoming toxic to suburban voters. I agree with MT Treasurer that this district definitely fits.

[TDAS04]

Voted tossup, but I probably should have voted at least lean D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/DonJBacon/status/1297909057659994115

Lean R----> Safe R. This one is over folks, pack it up, nothing to see here.

[Left Wing]

https://twitter.com/DonJBacon/status/1297909057659994115

Lean R----> Safe R. This one is over folks, pack it up, nothing to see here.

This is the same strategy Lee Terry employed in 2008