MS (Garin-Hart-Yang): Trump +10
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Author Topic: MS (Garin-Hart-Yang): Trump +10  (Read 1573 times)
VAR
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« on: August 13, 2020, 10:55:50 AM »
Trump 53%
Biden 43%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200813_MS.pdf
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Orwell
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2020, 10:57:42 AM »
Like... this is not entirely impossible this is a 3% improve on HRC and the same as Obama did in 2008 and 2012, Mississippi is entirely inelastic.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2020, 10:59:18 AM »
Looks about right.

Biden/Harris will turn out a lot more AA voters there compared to Hillary and also receive more White voters than her.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2020, 11:00:03 AM »
Again they poll MS but not MT, MT is more important
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2020, 11:11:54 AM »
Quote from: Orwell on August 13, 2020, 10:57:42 AM
Like... this is not entirely impossible this is a 3% improve on HRC and the same as Obama did in 2008 and 2012, Mississippi is entirely inelastic.

Didn't HRC lose MS by around a 17-point margin, though?
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Buchanan 96
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« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2020, 11:43:43 AM »
Trump's margin will probably be halved in Madison county.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2020, 11:51:22 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on August 13, 2020, 11:11:54 AM
Quote from: Orwell on August 13, 2020, 10:57:42 AM
Like... this is not entirely impossible this is a 3% improve on HRC and the same as Obama did in 2008 and 2012, Mississippi is entirely inelastic.

Didn't HRC lose MS by around a 17-point margin, though?

Yep, Trump won MS 58-40 in 2016.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2020, 11:53:00 AM »
Trump is gonna get 65 percent in MS, the end
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An eternity of coconuts for Joseph R. Biden Jr
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« Reply #8 on: August 13, 2020, 11:55:39 AM »
47-42 in the Senate race is not terrible for Espy
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2020, 12:17:20 PM »
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on August 13, 2020, 11:53:00 AM
Trump is gonna get 65 percent in MS, the end

Wow
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Existing in the context
Patrick97
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« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2020, 12:19:57 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on August 13, 2020, 11:11:54 AM
Quote from: Orwell on August 13, 2020, 10:57:42 AM
Like... this is not entirely impossible this is a 3% improve on HRC and the same as Obama did in 2008 and 2012, Mississippi is entirely inelastic.

Didn't HRC lose MS by around a 17-point margin, though?

Yes, but Obama only lost by 11.5 in 2012. We don't know how much of that margin was caused by the drop in turnout. DeSoto and Madison are some of the few growing counties in the state and both Clinton and Trump got fewer votes than Obama and Romney.
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Rand
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« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2020, 12:42:00 PM »
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on August 13, 2020, 11:53:00 AM
Trump is gonna get 65 percent in MS, the end

Which will also be his percentage of the national popular vote.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #12 on: August 13, 2020, 01:19:36 PM »
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on August 13, 2020, 11:53:00 AM
Trump is gonna get 65 percent in MS, the end

The King has spoken, the GOP is about to get its best % in MS since...um...since...

um...



Nixon 72, that's it. Nixon 72.

...

In all seriousness, a spread in the low teens, say, a 55-43 Trump win, seems quite believable for MS if black turnout is decent.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2020, 02:46:50 PM »
Hot take. Trump will win by mid single digits here.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #14 on: August 15, 2020, 02:36:32 AM »


The end result
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: August 15, 2020, 04:13:41 PM »
Harris galvanizes AA in Sunbelt stack, Harrison and Wosy can definitely benefit
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #16 on: August 18, 2020, 09:08:14 PM »
New Poll: Mississippi President by Garin-Hart-Yang on 2020-08-09

Summary: D: 43%, R: 53%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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