IA, MI, MN, WI (David Binder, Focus on Rural) (D) - Biden +6, +10, +18, +11
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  IA, MI, MN, WI (David Binder, Focus on Rural) (D) - Biden +6, +10, +18, +11
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Author Topic: IA, MI, MN, WI (David Binder, Focus on Rural) (D) - Biden +6, +10, +18, +11  (Read 2087 times)
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« on: August 06, 2020, 11:25:01 AM »

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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2020, 11:25:42 AM »

Only Michigan number is plausible
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Holmes
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2020, 11:25:59 AM »

I wish.
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WD
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2020, 11:26:29 AM »

Senate numbers?
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Crumpets
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2020, 11:26:35 AM »

Seems too good to be true, but if we apply the pessimistic rule of thumb from 2016 of assuming Trump wins all undecideds, the numbers look both reasonable and still good for Biden.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2020, 11:28:41 AM »

The Midwest shifts hard in elections like this. These numbers are all quite believable if past elections are any indicator.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2020, 11:29:44 AM »

Data here: https://www.focusonruralamerica.com/2020/08/06/heartland-poll-biden-leads-in-midwest/

But the sample size is only 200 in each state, which makes it trash.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2020, 11:32:17 AM »

Sample size is 200 each, but interesting that the total sample size (800) is still Biden +12, which is bigger than you'd expect overall.
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YE
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« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2020, 11:36:33 AM »

Trash due to the sample size.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2020, 11:48:01 AM »

Bqhatevwr
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2020, 11:48:12 AM »

...and then I woke up.
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MplsDem
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« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2020, 11:50:39 AM »

The sample size is really small, only 200 people from each state.
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Darthpi Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2020, 11:59:19 AM »

Definitely more Democratic than I expect the end results to be, but not complaining.
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Pollster
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« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2020, 01:56:39 PM »

Echoing concerns about sample size, with the acknowledgement that DBR is among the best in the game.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2020, 01:57:13 PM »

Ernst is DOA
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Senator Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2020, 02:05:19 PM »


It's good to dream right?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #16 on: August 06, 2020, 02:11:33 PM »

A bit too much, especially Iowa. I don't think Minnesota will be this blue, a ten point win here seems to be the absolute ceiling. More likely around six or seven.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #17 on: August 06, 2020, 06:33:14 PM »

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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #18 on: August 06, 2020, 08:02:49 PM »

Alright folks... opinions... do we enter these into the database? D firm, n=200?

Thoughts?
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #19 on: August 06, 2020, 09:42:16 PM »

Alright folks... opinions... do we enter these into the database? D firm, n=200?

Thoughts?

I would hold on to it, and only add it to the db if Biden wins Iowa Smiley
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2020, 07:55:07 AM »

Suspicious of Minnesota. It's the weirdly inelastic Midwestern state. Republicans consistently get about 45%, Democrats get the rest minus any third-party votes.
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