KS-PPP: Trump+7
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 26, 2024, 10:55:51 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  KS-PPP: Trump+7
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: KS-PPP: Trump+7  (Read 1808 times)
n1240
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,207


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 07, 2020, 08:20:27 AM »

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/KansasMemoResultsAug20.pdf

Trump 50
Biden 43

Aug 5-6, 864 RV, commissioned by Emily's List
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,424
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2020, 08:21:53 AM »

For reference, Trump won Kansas by around a 21 point margin:  56.2 - 35.7
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2020, 08:23:38 AM »

The favourable ratings in that poll (Biden -21, Trump +2) do not indicate such a close race.

Let's see what SurveyUSA for Election Twitter will show, but I guess it's more a 10-15% Trump lead.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,666
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2020, 08:25:45 AM »

Trump will win KS by 9 points.
Logged
n1240
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,207


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2020, 08:26:14 AM »

Biden+19 among voters with at least a 4 year degree, Trump+20 among voters without at least a 4 year degree
Logged
Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,986


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2020, 08:37:41 AM »

PPP doesn't show up in RCP averages, but they would love to put a Trafalgar poll seconds after it comes out.

A good poll for Biden but he won't win.  The big deal is what happens to Kobach voters in the Senate race.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,728


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2020, 08:45:33 AM »

The favourable ratings in that poll (Biden -21, Trump +2) do not indicate such a close race.

Let's see what SurveyUSA for Election Twitter will show, but I guess it's more a 10-15% Trump lead.

Favorability ratings for Biden have been all over the place, though lower than you'd expect, mostly I think with a younger demographic that still is mad that Bernie lost so they find Biden 'unfavorable' yet will overwhelmingly vote for him.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,005
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2020, 09:03:22 AM »

The favourable ratings in that poll (Biden -21, Trump +2) do not indicate such a close race.

Let's see what SurveyUSA for Election Twitter will show, but I guess it's more a 10-15% Trump lead.

Not necessarily. Nationally speaking, Biden's winning voters who disapprove of both candidates by a pretty wide margin.
Logged
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,719


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2020, 09:06:33 AM »

!


I'd really love to see a poll of just Johnson County.
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,763


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2020, 09:08:58 AM »

We're going back into the field in Kansas for the first time in a few months on Sunday, so will hopefully have some broad generalities to share soon.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,766
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2020, 09:11:09 AM »

This just shows that Rs are in serious trouble of losing more than a majority of Senators. GA runoffs are bound to go D if Trump loses. MT is gonna get closer and KS is an open seat. Hopefully, Mackler, whom is a Persian Gulf II vet can get some momentum
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,021


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2020, 09:25:53 AM »

We're going back into the field in Kansas for the first time in a few months on Sunday, so will hopefully have some broad generalities to share soon.

I realize you can't share too many details, but what's your broad sense of the race right now?
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,763


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2020, 09:40:56 AM »

We're going back into the field in Kansas for the first time in a few months on Sunday, so will hopefully have some broad generalities to share soon.

I realize you can't share too many details, but what's your broad sense of the race right now?

I haven't seen proprietary numbers since early June so I'm not extremely confident in this assessment, but I'd guess right now a comfortable but not resounding Trump victory. The path to a Senate victory is much narrower but still very much there. KS-02 will be a nail-biter (would have been a likely flip with Watkins). 
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,415
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2020, 12:11:12 PM »

The favourable ratings in that poll (Biden -21, Trump +2) do not indicate such a close race.

Let's see what SurveyUSA for Election Twitter will show, but I guess it's more a 10-15% Trump lead.

I'm betting that was a typo that transposed the numbers.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,854
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2020, 03:33:07 PM »

Freakishly weak for any Republican nominee for President in Kansas, which last went D in 1964.

The Senatorial vote looks to be decided by a razor-thin margin, which may be good news for Republicans who could have lost this seat more readily had Kobach won the primary.Putting Kansas in any category other than "Strong Republican" for either the Presidency or for the Senate bodes ill for the GOP.

I once quipped that Texas votes as if it were Kansas grafted onto Florida... that may be closer to the truth than I could have ever foreseen, and unusually relevant this year. .
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,839
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2020, 06:25:04 PM »

Kansas is not going to flip, but these potential single digit margins are just about the next best thing, especially for the Senate race. Maybe Bollier can still pull it off after all.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,284
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2020, 06:59:57 PM »

Logged
tagimaucia
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 570


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 08, 2020, 11:34:55 AM »

The favourable ratings in that poll (Biden -21, Trump +2) do not indicate such a close race.


I think this is flat-out wrong. Trump favorables matter a lot more than Biden favorables because voters treat an incumbent running for re-election much *more* (but not 100%)like a referendum than a choice.

If youíre as much of a nerd as me you can see this for yourself by taking any current poll at random and running a simple linear regression on crosstabs with horse race margin as the y and biden and trump favs as the xís.  The Trump coefficient is generally 2-3x bigger than the Biden one! Another way of looking at the same principleó in pretty much every poll Iíve seen this cycle, Biden wins voters with unfavorable opinions of both candidates by a landslide.
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,629
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2020, 07:44:49 AM »

New Poll: Kansas President by Survey USA on 2020-08-09

Summary: D: 41%, R: 48%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.234 seconds with 14 queries.