Fox News: Biden+9 in MI, +13 in MN, +11 in PA
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  Fox News: Biden+9 in MI, +13 in MN, +11 in PA
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Author Topic: Fox News: Biden+9 in MI, +13 in MN, +11 in PA  (Read 3218 times)
n1240
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« on: July 23, 2020, 05:01:53 PM »

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-in-battlegrounds-michigan-minnesota-pennsylvania

MI

Biden 49
Trump 40

MN

Biden 51
Trump 38

PA

Biden 50
Trump 39
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Crumpets
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« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2020, 05:02:40 PM »

Hakuna matata!
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2020, 05:09:44 PM »

But I thought Minnesota would be competitive?

Yet another poll that proves this is not like 2016, Uncle Joe close to or over 50%. However, I'm not sure Pennsylvania will vote to the left of Michigan, even with Scranton Joe.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2020, 05:09:53 PM »

Consistent with a 8-9 point lead nationally. PA to the left of MI makes sense if Biden's home state is perceived to be PA by some section of the population.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2020, 05:10:42 PM »

Can't be. Nate Silver told me that Biden's national polling average has collapsed to 7 points, and these states are not suddenly 2-5 points left of the national average. Sorry guys!
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OneJ
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« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2020, 05:11:45 PM »

I like these polls!
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2020, 05:15:47 PM »

These polls came out before the inevitable tightening from a "new tone", so they're junk.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2020, 05:17:42 PM »

Trump’s electoral college advantage on the 538 tracker is now down to 0.4%.  He’s up 7.9 nationwide, up 7.6 in MI, and up 7.5 in both PA and FL.
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Roblox
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« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2020, 05:27:29 PM »

Just wait for the "new tone" and "today is the day Donald Trump became president" bump.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2020, 05:46:58 PM »

Finally, some real polls. Will this shut up the people handwringing over garbage tier internet pollsters with wild results?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2020, 05:48:53 PM »

Wow, so Monmouth was onto something in PA. Also gives credence to the congressional polls that were showing Biden double digits ahead of Clinton 2016.

Also, this gives credence to the Biden +16 (I think?) poll out of MN a month or two ago
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2020, 05:50:27 PM »

Can't be. Nate Silver told me that Biden's national polling average has collapsed to 7 points, and these states are not suddenly 2-5 points left of the national average. Sorry guys!

I don’t think you understand what Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight does. They are just reporting and aggregating polls right now. Not making any kind of judgments on what they mean. (Their poll ratings give you a better indication on which polls are most trustworthy.) When the real model comes out, that will be closer to an actual prediction/forecast, but you still have to understand polls are just a snapshot in time and the odds do not imply any sort of guarantee the candidate ahead will win. Just saying what the current probability is given available information.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2020, 05:56:10 PM »

Can't be. Nate Silver told me that Biden's national polling average has collapsed to 7 points, and these states are not suddenly 2-5 points left of the national average. Sorry guys!

I don’t think you understand what Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight does. They are just reporting and aggregating polls right now. Not making any kind of judgments on what they mean. (Their poll ratings give you a better indication on which polls are most trustworthy.) When the real model comes out, that will be closer to an actual prediction/forecast, but you still have to understand polls are just a snapshot in time and the odds do not imply any sort of guarantee the candidate ahead will win. Just saying what the current probability is given available information.

No, I think he's talking about Nate's tweets. Silver was certainly trying to be pessimistic about Biden the other day, even saying that his "TX polls are meh" despite Biden literally *leading* in Texas right now.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2020, 05:56:48 PM »

Wow @ the favorabilities and the "extremely interested" parts.

MICHIGAN
“Among the 53 percent who are extremely interested”, Biden up 10% (53-43)
Trump job approval: 45/54 (-9) was -4 in April
Whitmer job approval: 64/33 (+31)
Biden fav: 53/42 (+11)
Trump fav: 44/54 (-10)

MINNESOTA
“Among voters who are extremely interested in the election”, Biden up 27% (61-34)
Walz job approval: 65/30 (+35)
Trump job approval: 42/57 (-15)
Biden fav: 53/43 (+10)
Trump fav: 40/58 (-18)

PENNSYLVANIA
“Among voters who are extremely interested in the election”, Biden up 15% (55-40)
Wolf job approval: 63%
Biden fav: 55/43 (+12)
Trump fav: 42/56 (-14)
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Person Man
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« Reply #14 on: July 23, 2020, 05:57:23 PM »

YEET!
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #15 on: July 23, 2020, 06:00:53 PM »

This race is a tossup.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #16 on: July 23, 2020, 06:06:28 PM »

If Biden actually wins by 11 in Pennsylvania, it would be hard to not see him win Ohio as well.
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Hammy
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« Reply #17 on: July 23, 2020, 06:18:45 PM »

If Biden actually wins by 11 in Pennsylvania, it would be hard to not see him win Ohio as well.

Has Fox released an Ohio poll yet? It'd be interesting to see what the numbers are with this. Also those Minnesota numbers, with all the talk of the protests scaring white suburban voters.
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G_Master
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« Reply #18 on: July 23, 2020, 06:28:36 PM »

Welp, I guess Minnesota’s out of reach after all.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #19 on: July 23, 2020, 06:37:41 PM »

But the tightening!
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n1240
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« Reply #20 on: July 23, 2020, 06:37:58 PM »

If Biden actually wins by 11 in Pennsylvania, it would be hard to not see him win Ohio as well.

Has Fox released an Ohio poll yet? It'd be interesting to see what the numbers are with this. Also those Minnesota numbers, with all the talk of the protests scaring white suburban voters.

Biden+2 in early June.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: July 23, 2020, 06:42:32 PM »

If Biden actually wins by 11 in Pennsylvania, it would be hard to not see him win Ohio as well.

Has Fox released an Ohio poll yet? It'd be interesting to see what the numbers are with this. Also those Minnesota numbers, with all the talk of the protests scaring white suburban voters.

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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #22 on: July 23, 2020, 06:44:27 PM »

I'll take the other numbers with a grain of salt but I DO buy into the MN poll. It's not gonna have ridiculous number spreads like +25 but it's arguably still after all these years, the most solidly liberal state in the union along with MA. It's been carried by Republicans in presidential elections exactly once in 64 years and the only time being when Nixon won in 1972. They always vote to the left of the rest of the rust belt.


I don't know if Biden walks away with +13 but I've had him winning MN from the get-go and this all but confirms it
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FlyoverCoast
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« Reply #23 on: July 23, 2020, 07:30:46 PM »

Can't be. Nate Silver told me that Biden's national polling average has collapsed to 7 points, and these states are not suddenly 2-5 points left of the national average. Sorry guys!

I don’t think you understand what Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight does. They are just reporting and aggregating polls right now. Not making any kind of judgments on what they mean. (Their poll ratings give you a better indication on which polls are most trustworthy.) When the real model comes out, that will be closer to an actual prediction/forecast, but you still have to understand polls are just a snapshot in time and the odds do not imply any sort of guarantee the candidate ahead will win. Just saying what the current probability is given available information.

No, I think he's talking about Nate's tweets. Silver was certainly trying to be pessimistic about Biden the other day, even saying that his "TX polls are meh" despite Biden literally *leading* in Texas right now.



Here's some context on Nate Silver suggesting a tightening in some polls.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #24 on: July 23, 2020, 07:40:57 PM »

good for trump
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