Fox News: Biden+9 in MI, +13 in MN, +11 in PA
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 19, 2024, 04:13:28 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Fox News: Biden+9 in MI, +13 in MN, +11 in PA		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Fox News: Biden+9 in MI, +13 in MN, +11 in PA  (Read 3087 times)
n1240
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,207


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 23, 2020, 05:01:53 PM »
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-in-battlegrounds-michigan-minnesota-pennsylvania

MI

Biden 49
Trump 40

MN

Biden 51
Trump 38

PA

Biden 50
Trump 39
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2020, 05:02:40 PM »
Hakuna matata!
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,817
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2020, 05:09:44 PM »
But I thought Minnesota would be competitive?

Yet another poll that proves this is not like 2016, Uncle Joe close to or over 50%. However, I'm not sure Pennsylvania will vote to the left of Michigan, even with Scranton Joe.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,783


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2020, 05:09:53 PM »
Consistent with a 8-9 point lead nationally. PA to the left of MI makes sense if Biden's home state is perceived to be PA by some section of the population.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,925


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2020, 05:10:42 PM »
Can't be. Nate Silver told me that Biden's national polling average has collapsed to 7 points, and these states are not suddenly 2-5 points left of the national average. Sorry guys!
Logged
OneJ
OneJ_
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,834
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2020, 05:11:45 PM »
I like these polls!
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2020, 05:15:47 PM »
These polls came out before the inevitable tightening from a "new tone", so they're junk.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,191


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2020, 05:17:42 PM »
Trump’s electoral college advantage on the 538 tracker is now down to 0.4%.  He’s up 7.9 nationwide, up 7.6 in MI, and up 7.5 in both PA and FL.
Logged
Roblox
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,245


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2020, 05:27:29 PM »
Just wait for the "new tone" and "today is the day Donald Trump became president" bump.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,301
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2020, 05:46:58 PM »
Finally, some real polls. Will this shut up the people handwringing over garbage tier internet pollsters with wild results?
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,085


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2020, 05:48:53 PM »
Wow, so Monmouth was onto something in PA. Also gives credence to the congressional polls that were showing Biden double digits ahead of Clinton 2016.

Also, this gives credence to the Biden +16 (I think?) poll out of MN a month or two ago
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,301
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2020, 05:50:27 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on July 23, 2020, 05:10:42 PM
Can't be. Nate Silver told me that Biden's national polling average has collapsed to 7 points, and these states are not suddenly 2-5 points left of the national average. Sorry guys!

I don’t think you understand what Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight does. They are just reporting and aggregating polls right now. Not making any kind of judgments on what they mean. (Their poll ratings give you a better indication on which polls are most trustworthy.) When the real model comes out, that will be closer to an actual prediction/forecast, but you still have to understand polls are just a snapshot in time and the odds do not imply any sort of guarantee the candidate ahead will win. Just saying what the current probability is given available information.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,085


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2020, 05:56:10 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on July 23, 2020, 05:50:27 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on July 23, 2020, 05:10:42 PM
Can't be. Nate Silver told me that Biden's national polling average has collapsed to 7 points, and these states are not suddenly 2-5 points left of the national average. Sorry guys!

I don’t think you understand what Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight does. They are just reporting and aggregating polls right now. Not making any kind of judgments on what they mean. (Their poll ratings give you a better indication on which polls are most trustworthy.) When the real model comes out, that will be closer to an actual prediction/forecast, but you still have to understand polls are just a snapshot in time and the odds do not imply any sort of guarantee the candidate ahead will win. Just saying what the current probability is given available information.

No, I think he's talking about Nate's tweets. Silver was certainly trying to be pessimistic about Biden the other day, even saying that his "TX polls are meh" despite Biden literally *leading* in Texas right now.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,085


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2020, 05:56:48 PM »
Wow @ the favorabilities and the "extremely interested" parts.

MICHIGAN
“Among the 53 percent who are extremely interested”, Biden up 10% (53-43)
Trump job approval: 45/54 (-9) was -4 in April
Whitmer job approval: 64/33 (+31)
Biden fav: 53/42 (+11)
Trump fav: 44/54 (-10)

MINNESOTA
“Among voters who are extremely interested in the election”, Biden up 27% (61-34)
Walz job approval: 65/30 (+35)
Trump job approval: 42/57 (-15)
Biden fav: 53/43 (+10)
Trump fav: 40/58 (-18)

PENNSYLVANIA
“Among voters who are extremely interested in the election”, Biden up 15% (55-40)
Wolf job approval: 63%
Biden fav: 55/43 (+12)
Trump fav: 42/56 (-14)
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,689
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 23, 2020, 05:57:23 PM »
YEET!
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,979
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 23, 2020, 06:00:53 PM »
This race is a tossup.
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 23, 2020, 06:06:28 PM »
If Biden actually wins by 11 in Pennsylvania, it would be hard to not see him win Ohio as well.
Logged
Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,708
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 23, 2020, 06:18:45 PM »
Quote from: darthpi on July 23, 2020, 06:06:28 PM
If Biden actually wins by 11 in Pennsylvania, it would be hard to not see him win Ohio as well.

Has Fox released an Ohio poll yet? It'd be interesting to see what the numbers are with this. Also those Minnesota numbers, with all the talk of the protests scaring white suburban voters.
Logged
G_Master
Rookie
**
Posts: 176


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 23, 2020, 06:28:36 PM »
Welp, I guess Minnesota’s out of reach after all.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,981
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 23, 2020, 06:37:41 PM »
But the tightening!
Logged
n1240
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,207


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: July 23, 2020, 06:37:58 PM »
Quote from: Hammy on July 23, 2020, 06:18:45 PM
Quote from: darthpi on July 23, 2020, 06:06:28 PM
If Biden actually wins by 11 in Pennsylvania, it would be hard to not see him win Ohio as well.

Has Fox released an Ohio poll yet? It'd be interesting to see what the numbers are with this. Also those Minnesota numbers, with all the talk of the protests scaring white suburban voters.

Biden+2 in early June.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,085


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: July 23, 2020, 06:42:32 PM »
Quote from: Hammy on July 23, 2020, 06:18:45 PM
Quote from: darthpi on July 23, 2020, 06:06:28 PM
If Biden actually wins by 11 in Pennsylvania, it would be hard to not see him win Ohio as well.

Has Fox released an Ohio poll yet? It'd be interesting to see what the numbers are with this. Also those Minnesota numbers, with all the talk of the protests scaring white suburban voters.
Logged
Use Your Illusion
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 442


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: July 23, 2020, 06:44:27 PM »
I'll take the other numbers with a grain of salt but I DO buy into the MN poll. It's not gonna have ridiculous number spreads like +25 but it's arguably still after all these years, the most solidly liberal state in the union along with MA. It's been carried by Republicans in presidential elections exactly once in 64 years and the only time being when Nixon won in 1972. They always vote to the left of the rest of the rust belt.


I don't know if Biden walks away with +13 but I've had him winning MN from the get-go and this all but confirms it
Logged
FlyoverCoast
Rookie
**
Posts: 69


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: July 23, 2020, 07:30:46 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 23, 2020, 05:56:10 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on July 23, 2020, 05:50:27 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on July 23, 2020, 05:10:42 PM
Can't be. Nate Silver told me that Biden's national polling average has collapsed to 7 points, and these states are not suddenly 2-5 points left of the national average. Sorry guys!

I don’t think you understand what Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight does. They are just reporting and aggregating polls right now. Not making any kind of judgments on what they mean. (Their poll ratings give you a better indication on which polls are most trustworthy.) When the real model comes out, that will be closer to an actual prediction/forecast, but you still have to understand polls are just a snapshot in time and the odds do not imply any sort of guarantee the candidate ahead will win. Just saying what the current probability is given available information.

No, I think he's talking about Nate's tweets. Silver was certainly trying to be pessimistic about Biden the other day, even saying that his "TX polls are meh" despite Biden literally *leading* in Texas right now.



Here's some context on Nate Silver suggesting a tightening in some polls.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: July 23, 2020, 07:40:57 PM »
good for trump
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.057 seconds with 12 queries.