Kanye Ballot Access: Yeezus or Bust?

[W]

Subthread of Minor Party and Independent General Election Discussion

NOTE: These maps are not actively updated.

Hey y'all,

I figure now that we know Kanye does have operatives at least attempting to get Kanye West ballot access, I will in this thread assume Kanye West is still serious and address the chances he can get on the ballot in more states and further how that could influence on the race, in my humble opinion at Trump's detriment. I'll use maps to explain my thoughts on this process.

I also wish to acknowledge for the many people who will read this and roll their eyes my interest in this is almost that of a case study. There is no precedent for a race like this, as there was no precedent for 20 candidates in a single primary or 2 self-funding billionaires running. The outcome of this campaign will be very enlightening as to what happens when a celebrity runs.

KANYE WEST BALLOT ACCESS:

Ballot access established - 7 EV
Write-in access - 0 EV
Ballot access TBD (uncolored states) - 405 EV
No ballot access unless suing for it - 126 EV

Note: West is currently petitioning online and in person for SC signatures.

Here is Kanye West's current ballot access, as we know it at 6 AM EST on 7/16. We must first ask: why Oklahoma? Seems like an odd state. The answer is that in Oklahoma you can get on the ballot by just paying a $35,000 fee. Evidently that happened. Although there's been some reporting on Kanye hiring people to get him signatures to petition for ballot access, clearly it was simply too close to the deadline to be effective. I will assume these operations continue however for the sake of my analysis. First I think it's important to explain the methodology each state left uses to calculate eligibility for the ballot in remaining states.

BALLOT ACCESS METHODS:

Filing fee - 17 EV
Signature Requirement - 395 EV
Ballot access deadline passed (uncolored states) - 126 EV

As you can see signature requirements are most common, with only Lousiana and Colorado not having them. As Colorado's filing fee is $1,000 and Louisiana's is $500, at this point we can safely assume Kanye West will attain ballot access in those two states and my specific discussion of them ends here. Further now, let us look at the deadlines in the remaining states.

BALLOT DEADLINES:

September ballot access deadline - 25 EV
August ballot access deadline - 278 EV
July ballot access deadline - 109 EV
Ballot access deadline passed (uncolored states) - 126 EV

As you can see, most deadlines left are at least two weeks away during August, making Kanye's prospects larger than you'd expect. That being said there's a second factor besides time to consider, how reasonable the signature requirement is. As not all states have voter registration statistics available, this next part will be a function of the total population of said state.

PERCENTAGE OF STATE REQUIRED TO SIGN:

Under 0.05% of state
Under 0.25% of state
Over 0.25% of state
Ballot access deadline passed or ballot fee (uncolored states)

These state limits are very variant, from Tennesse's 275 signature limit at 0.004% of the state population to Wyoming's requirement of 4,018 signatures at 0.7086% of the population.

Now from all of these, I will now characterize my expectation for Kanye West's ballot access. Unlike all the other maps in this thread, this one is purely an estimation and may be proven wildly inaccurate. So take this with a tremendous grain of salt.

W'S ESTIMATE FOR BALLOT ACCESS

Likely ballot access - 79 EV
Plausible ballot access - 173 EV
Unlikely ballot access - 286 EV

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He's not eligible in Colorado because in addition to the filing fee there's a deadline to file with the FEC that he did not meet.

[W]

He's not eligible in Colorado because in addition to the filing fee there's a deadline to file with the FEC that he did not meet.

You're correct that there was a qualifying by petition deadine on 7/9 however when qualifying by fee the deadline is 8/5. Although West needs to fill out a statement of candidacy which he of course is yet to do. Is there another deadline requirement I missed?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He's not eligible in Colorado because in addition to the filing fee there's a deadline to file with the FEC that he did not meet.

You're correct that there was a qualifying by petition deadine on 7/9 however when qualifying by fee the deadline is 8/5. Although West needs to fill out a statement of candidacy which he of course is yet to do. Is there another deadline requirement I missed?

One source I saw said there was an FEC filing deadline of 7/10.

[W]

He's not eligible in Colorado because in addition to the filing fee there's a deadline to file with the FEC that he did not meet.

You're correct that there was a qualifying by petition deadine on 7/9 however when qualifying by fee the deadline is 8/5. Although West needs to fill out a statement of candidacy which he of course is yet to do. Is there another deadline requirement I missed?

One source I saw said there was an FEC filing deadline of 7/10.

Hmm. I haven't seen anything like that but it wouldn't shock me if it exists, given how many hitches there are to ballot access law. For now I'm just gonna keep the map the same.

[Alben Barkley]

Kanye needs to stay the f—k out of AZ/WI/PA.

[Bidenworth2020]

Kanye needs to stay the f—k out of AZ/WI/PA.

Actually worried about Kanye taking votes from Biden? Lol

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Kanye needs to stay the f—k out of AZ/WI/PA.

He won’t get on the ballot there. And either way, data shows him taking from trump.

[Hope For A New Era]

Kanye needs to stay the f—k out of AZ/WI/PA.

Actually worried about Kanye taking votes from Biden? Lol

We cannot take any chances.

[W]

Kanye will take more votes from Trump than Biden, especially looking at the middle America states he stands a chance in. 100% confident in that assertion.

[Inmate Trump]

I thought he dropped out?

He’s back in?

This guy is a mess.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I thought he dropped out?

He’s back in?

This guy is a mess.

Ross Perot was a genius who waited until he was leading to drop out before reentering.

[W]

https://twitter.com/kanyewest/status/1284334571752837120

West petitioning fans to get on the ballot in SC

Deadline was 7/18 so I'm at a bit of a loss for this one.

Who wants to bet 80% of signatures are invalid?

(Also for the record I'm signing it to see if he has a mailing list. In which case I am going to go nuts.)

[BudgieForce]

I was under the impression online signatures weren't valid unless the state in question changed it's rules.

I know Massachusetts passed a law to allow online signatures, but I can't find anything about South Carolina doing that.

[W]

What the hell have I done?

I was under the impression online signatures weren't valid unless the state in question changed it's rules.

I know Massachusetts passed a law to allow online signatures, but I can't find anything about South Carolina doing that.

I was under that impression too. That being said SC's deadline has already passed and I'm sure more info than this form has would be required to sign otherwise. Perhaps its a petition to waive the deadline? I don't know. All I know is West seems to have at least somewhat competent staff hired so I cannot imagine they'd do this for no reason.

[BlueSwan]

Kanye will take more votes from Trump than Biden, especially looking at the middle America states he stands a chance in. 100% confident in that assertion.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Old white WWC’s aren’t exactly the kind of people who will vote for Kanye. Young people, minorities and people disillusioned with the binary choice are.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What the hell have I done?

I was under the impression online signatures weren't valid unless the state in question changed it's rules.

I know Massachusetts passed a law to allow online signatures, but I can't find anything about South Carolina doing that.

I was under that impression too. That being said SC's deadline has already passed and I'm sure more info than this form has would be required to sign otherwise. Perhaps its a petition to waive the deadline? I don't know. All I know is West seems to have at least somewhat competent staff hired so I cannot imagine they'd do this for no reason.

Not sure if I'd assume that as he hasn't made any movement toward ballot access in Louisiana or any other easy states.

[W]

https://twitter.com/kanyewest/status/1284599234088427520

He apparently has physical places setup for people to sign aboard. I cannot think of why except just to pressure state officials? Seems a bit crazy to me.

[n1240]

What the hell have I done?

I was under the impression online signatures weren't valid unless the state in question changed it's rules.

I know Massachusetts passed a law to allow online signatures, but I can't find anything about South Carolina doing that.

I was under that impression too. That being said SC's deadline has already passed and I'm sure more info than this form has would be required to sign otherwise. Perhaps its a petition to waive the deadline? I don't know. All I know is West seems to have at least somewhat competent staff hired so I cannot imagine they'd do this for no reason.

Deadline was extended to July 20

[W]

What the hell have I done?

I was under the impression online signatures weren't valid unless the state in question changed it's rules.

I know Massachusetts passed a law to allow online signatures, but I can't find anything about South Carolina doing that.

I was under that impression too. That being said SC's deadline has already passed and I'm sure more info than this form has would be required to sign otherwise. Perhaps its a petition to waive the deadline? I don't know. All I know is West seems to have at least somewhat competent staff hired so I cannot imagine they'd do this for no reason.

Deadline was extended to July 20

Oh wow! Excellent catch! Updated everything to acknowledge that.

[W]

Kanye will take more votes from Trump than Biden, especially looking at the middle America states he stands a chance in. 100% confident in that assertion.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Old white WWC’s aren’t exactly the kind of people who will vote for Kanye. Young people, minorities and people disillusioned with the binary choice are.

I don't know what to say besides I disagree with every word you just said. Not all of Trump's "coalition" is WWC old people and to be quite blunt it is my firm belief not all young people minorities and politically disillusioned people are stupid. Anyone who was voting for Biden out of genuine support is still gonna do that. Anyone voting for Biden because he's the not a fascist candidate with the best chance are still gonna do that. The only people who will genuinely vote for Kanye West are frat bro MAGA types whose political beliefs end at "haha blindly follow lib owning man" and the jokesters who are preparing their "I only supported trump IRONICALLY" defence. I could maybe see a case for some non-voters turning out for him solely as a joke or because he's a celebrity but the idea whiny progressives or generally disillusioned people are gonna vote for some weird black nationalist paleoconservative instead of staying home or picking some third party sacrificial lamb is genuinely insane. And I haven't even touched the fact West really only stands a chance to get on the ballot in some of the reddest states in the country. West running is absolutely beyond a doubt a net-positive for Joe Biden. Unequivocably. Now when West most likely runs in the Republican primary in 2024 then yes I will be concerned, but for now all this sideshow does is cut into Trump which is absolutely in the country's material interest rn.

[BudgieForce]

What the hell have I done?

I was under the impression online signatures weren't valid unless the state in question changed it's rules.

I know Massachusetts passed a law to allow online signatures, but I can't find anything about South Carolina doing that.

I was under that impression too. That being said SC's deadline has already passed and I'm sure more info than this form has would be required to sign otherwise. Perhaps its a petition to waive the deadline? I don't know. All I know is West seems to have at least somewhat competent staff hired so I cannot imagine they'd do this for no reason.

Deadline was extended to July 20

Oh wow! Excellent catch! Updated everything to acknowledge that.

10,000 signatures from registered voters in 9 locations is kind of a big ask. And I cant find anything saying South Carolina is accepting E-Signatures. I'm not going to say Kanye cant pull it off, but it seems like an uphill battle.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am still weighing in on Kayne West. I have my reservations about Biden as now polls are showing at least on the Senate side, the gap is closing. Daines, Graham, Loefler all recapturing leads. Even as the natl polls show a landslide

[BaldEagle1991]

He will have really low ballot access by September.

[BlueSwan]

Kanye will take more votes from Trump than Biden, especially looking at the middle America states he stands a chance in. 100% confident in that assertion.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Old white WWC’s aren’t exactly the kind of people who will vote for Kanye. Young people, minorities and people disillusioned with the binary choice are.

I don't know what to say besides I disagree with every word you just said. Not all of Trump's "coalition" is WWC old people and to be quite blunt it is my firm belief not all young people minorities and politically disillusioned people are stupid. Anyone who was voting for Biden out of genuine support is still gonna do that. Anyone voting for Biden because he's the not a fascist candidate with the best chance are still gonna do that. The only people who will genuinely vote for Kanye West are frat bro MAGA types whose political beliefs end at "haha blindly follow lib owning man" and the jokesters who are preparing their "I only supported trump IRONICALLY" defence. I could maybe see a case for some non-voters turning out for him solely as a joke or because he's a celebrity but the idea whiny progressives or generally disillusioned people are gonna vote for some weird black nationalist paleoconservative instead of staying home or picking some third party sacrificial lamb is genuinely insane. And I haven't even touched the fact West really only stands a chance to get on the ballot in some of the reddest states in the country. West running is absolutely beyond a doubt a net-positive for Joe Biden. Unequivocably. Now when West most likely runs in the Republican primary in 2024 then yes I will be concerned, but for now all this sideshow does is cut into Trump which is absolutely in the country's material interest rn.

Well, it will certainly be interesting to watch. I hope you are right on this, but I'm inclined to think that you are not. I will say that Kanye is one of those third party candidates where it is not completely obvious who he'll draw from the most. I will say this though:

- In 2016 both Stein AND Johnson hurt Clinton more than Trump.
- Republicans are generally more inclined to fall in line than democrats, hence third party candidates almost by default hurts the democrat more.
- Identity voting suggests that Kanye could draw perhaps less politically invested black voters who would otherwise be inclined to default vote for Biden.
- Kanye is a black conservative. Many black people have fairly conservative values despite voting for democrats. He could certainly appeal to those voters.
- Some republicans despise Trump and would be inclined to vote for Biden, but might not have an excuse to vote for Kanye, which will also serve to "prove" that they are not racists.
- Young disillusioned whites who aren't too politically engaged might vote for Kanye for the lols. Would probably otherwise vote Biden or abstain.

So, overall my inclination is that Kanye hurts Biden more than he hurts Trump, but sure, as long as Kanye mainly gets on the ballot in red states, it doesn't really matter.