Minor Party and Independent General Election Discussion
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Author Topic: Minor Party and Independent General Election Discussion  (Read 20114 times)
W
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« on: July 08, 2020, 09:31:48 AM »
« edited: July 21, 2020, 09:54:44 PM by W »

This is a successor thread to Minor Party Primaries Results and Discussion focusing on General Election discussion rather than the primary process since most minor parties have now made nominations or have presumptive winners.

LIBERTARIAN PARTY

Jo Jorgensen/Spike Cohen

Ballot Access:



Ballot access established - 409 EV
Write-in access - 0 EV
Ballot access TBD (uncolored states) - 129 EV
No ballot access unless suing for it - 0 EV

GREEN PARTY/SOCIALIST PARTY USA/SOLIDARITY/OREGON PROGRESSIVE PARTY (PRESUMPTIVE)

Howie Hawkins/Angela Walker

Ballot Access:



Note: RI Greens have ballot access, the state party has refused to list a presidential candidate this year and petitioning will likely be as independent.

Ballot access established - 301 EV
Write-in access - 11 EV
Ballot access TBD (uncolored states) - 219 EV
No ballot access unless suing for it - 7 EV

CONSTITUTION PARTY

Don Blankenship/William Mohr

Ballot Access:



Note: NM Constitution Party has ballot access and nominated Sheila Tittle, not the CP national ticket

Ballot access established - 125 EV
Write-in access - 0 EV
Ballot access TBD (uncolored states) - 332 EV
No ballot access unless suing for it - 81 EV

ALLIANCE PARTY/REFORM PARTY/NATURAL LAW PARTY OF MICHIGAN

Rocky De La Fuente/Darcy Richardson

Ballot Access:



Note: Rocky De La Fuente is also seeking the American Independent Party nomination, which would give ballot access in California. In 2016 the party nominated Trump so outlook seems negative on that one.

Ballot access established - 97 EV
Write-in access - 0 EV
Ballot access TBD (uncolored states) - 353 EV
No ballot access unless suing for it - 98 EV

PARTY FOR SOCIALISM AND LIBERATION

Gloria La Riva/Leonard Peltier

Ballot Access:



Note: La Riva is currently suing for ballot access in Florida

Ballot access established - 83 EV
Write-in access - 0 EV
Ballot access TBD (uncolored states) - 318 EV
No ballot access unless suing for it - 137 EV

BIRTHDAY PARTY

Kanye West/Michelle Tidball

Ballot Access:



Note: Additional discussion at    
Kanye Ballot Access: Yeezus or Bust?


Ballot access established - 27 EV
Write-in access - 0 EV
Ballot access TBD (uncolored states) - 379 EV
No ballot access unless suing for it - 132 EV

AMERICAN SOLIDARITY PARTY

Brian Carroll/Amar Patel

Ballot Access:



Ballot access established - 26 EV
Write-in access - 107 EV
Ballot access TBD (uncolored states) - 303 EV
No ballot access unless suing for it - 102 EV

PROHIBITION PARTY

Phil Collins/Billy Joe Parker

Ballot Access:



Note: Collins is also seeking the American Independent Party nomination, which would give ballot access in California. In 2016 the party nominated Trump so outlook seems negative on that one.

Ballot access established - 24 EV
Write-in access - 0 EV
Ballot access TBD (uncolored states) - 352 EV
No ballot access unless suing for it - 162 EV

Campaigns with Ballot Access in 1 state:

CONSTITUTION PARTY (SPLINTER)

Sheila Tittle/TBD

Ballot access in New Mexico, consideration in Virginia

INDEPENDENT

Jade Simmons/TBD

Ballot access in Oklahoma, write-in access in Florida

Brock Pierce/TBD

Ballot access in Oklahoma

BREAD & ROSES

Jerome Segal/John de Graaf

Ballot access in Maryland

LEGAL MARIJUANA NOW PARTY

Rudy Reyes/TBD

Ballot access in Minnesota

UNITY PARTY

Bill Hammons/Eric Bodenstab

Ballot access in Colorado

INDEPENDENT PARTY OF OREGON

Joe Biden/TBD

Ballot access in Oregon

VETERAN'S PARTY OF AMERICA

Max Abramson (probable)/TBD

Ballot access in Mississippi

CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF NEW YORK

Donald Trump/Mike Pence

Ballot access in New York

Not listed are several New York state ballot fusion parties that are yet to make nominations.

Tickets with no currently confirmed ballot access:

INDEPENDENT

Joe Schriner/TBD

Write-in in Indiana

Dario Hunter/Darlene Elias

Mark Charles/TBD

Brock Pierce/TBD

SOCIALIST ACTION

Jeff Mackler/Heather Bradford

SOCIALIST EQUALITY PARTY

Joseph Kishore/Norissa Santa Cruz

SOCIALIST WORKERS PARTY

Alyson Kennedy/Malcolm Jarrett

TRANSHUMANIST PARTY

Charlie Kam/Arin Vahanian
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #1 on: July 08, 2020, 09:47:21 AM »
« Edited: July 08, 2020, 09:52:46 AM by The Other Castro »

Sources on ballot access? This says only 36 states (+ DC) for Libertarians as of 7/1: https://www.lp.org/ballotaccess/

Green Party looks very off as well:
https://www.gp.org/ballot_access


Edit: Are these the 2016 maps
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W
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« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2020, 04:46:10 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2020, 04:54:27 PM by W »

Sources on ballot access? This says only 36 states (+ DC) for Libertarians as of 7/1: https://www.lp.org/ballotaccess/

Green Party looks very off as well:
https://www.gp.org/ballot_access


Edit: Are these the 2016 maps

You're absolutely correct. Maps are now fixed although I'll have to find a reliable source for the Constitution Party and some of them (Wisconsin) on that one are probably inaccurate.
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MarkD
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« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2020, 06:13:00 PM »

I wonder if Colorado is going to have 22 candidates on their ballot again, or more?
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Spark
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« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2020, 08:09:53 PM »

"The Birthday Party". LOL.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2020, 04:05:48 PM »



Daario Hunter does not accept the results
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Hammy
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« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2020, 05:08:22 PM »

Why is Biden on the Independent Party of Oregon?
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2020, 05:32:52 PM »

Third parties will get 1% of less of the national vote. I'm calling it.
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longtimelurker
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« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2020, 06:58:28 PM »


Wouldn't the perfect slogan for "The Birthday Party" be:

Let Them Eat Cake
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PSOL
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« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2020, 09:56:12 PM »

The Green Party is definitely going to go through some purges of it’s membership. For the best, I suppose, but it’s disappointing that Howie Hawkins is going to get astronomically fewer votes from all this, perhaps even a worse showing than 2008.
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W
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« Reply #10 on: July 12, 2020, 12:45:41 AM »

Why is Biden on the Independent Party of Oregon?

They held a "primary" online for their presidential ticket with all major candidates from both parties (Biden, Bernie, Trump). Biden won and thus although he hasn't to my knowledge "accepted" it has the party's endorsement. The IPO is a bit weird with what "endorsed" candidates they get on the ballot and which they do not so whether there is actual ballot fusion or not is TBD.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: July 12, 2020, 08:23:26 AM »

The Conservative Party of NY has endorsed Trump/Pence. Hunter is running as an independent green.
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W
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« Reply #12 on: July 12, 2020, 10:38:08 AM »

The Conservative Party of NY has endorsed Trump/Pence. Hunter is running as an independent green.

Added!
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Badger
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« Reply #13 on: July 12, 2020, 04:46:47 PM »

Third parties will get 1% of less of the national vote. I'm calling it.

That seems like an ambitious prediction. That hasn't happened since 1988 when third parties oh, primarily Ron Paul running as a Libertarian, cumulatively obtained only 0.98% of the vote. Though admittedly the total in 2004 was only 1.01%. That seems quite a drop-off from just trusting 6% last time.

 I hope you're right as I think that will ultimately help Biden. I wouldn't be surprised if if it hit as low as around 2%, though.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2020, 09:13:03 AM »

Hawkins is seeking the nomination of the Oregon Progressive Party.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #15 on: July 15, 2020, 11:25:56 AM »

The Green Party is definitely going to go through some purges of it’s membership. For the best, I suppose, but it’s disappointing that Howie Hawkins is going to get astronomically fewer votes from all this, perhaps even a worse showing than 2008.


FWIW, there's no way in hell the Greens drop to below the 0.12% they got in 2008.

Jill Stein 2012's 0.36% is a good over-under. I think I'd take the over, but not by much.
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Canis
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« Reply #16 on: July 15, 2020, 12:07:25 PM »

Wonder if Dario Hunters gonna get ballot access anywhere and how much percent of the vote he will get will any atlas users endorse him?
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The Mikado
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« Reply #17 on: July 15, 2020, 12:47:15 PM »

Wonder if Dario Hunters gonna get ballot access anywhere and how much percent of the vote he will get will any atlas users endorse him?

If he really wants to, there's a handful of states that are super-easy to get ballot access in. (Looking at you, Colorado)
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #18 on: July 15, 2020, 08:18:13 PM »

Independent candidates Brock Pierce and Jade Simmons have got ballot access in Oklahoma: http://ballot-access.org/2020/07/15/three-independent-presidential-candidates-pay-35000-to-qualify-for-oklahoma-ballot/
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Bomster
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« Reply #19 on: July 15, 2020, 08:21:50 PM »

Kanye?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #20 on: July 15, 2020, 08:43:00 PM »


He has it too, but he's filed with the FEC as a member of the Birthday Party.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #21 on: July 15, 2020, 09:52:33 PM »



With this ruling, it's very possible that Biden and Trump are the only ones on the ballot in PA, a fairly high population state that could have effects on third party totals statewide.
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Torrain
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« Reply #22 on: July 16, 2020, 06:04:27 AM »


With this ruling, it's very possible that Biden and Trump are the only ones on the ballot in PA, a fairly high population state that could have effects on third party totals statewide.

Big news if true

Third parties accounted for 4.36% of the vote in 2016.

That's 6x the margin of victory of 0.72%. If voters are forced into a three way choice (Trump, Biden, neither) then a close race could look quite different.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #23 on: July 16, 2020, 10:32:57 AM »



With this ruling, it's very possible that Biden and Trump are the only ones on the ballot in PA, a fairly high population state that could have effects on third party totals statewide.

I'd still bet on the Libertarians being able to get 5,000 signatures in PA. They're pretty dedicated when they want to be.
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walleye26
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« Reply #24 on: July 20, 2020, 07:43:44 AM »

Jorgensen FB likes as of 7/20 @ 7:42 am: 255,280
This is up from 7/13 @ 8:42 am: 243,136.
Around 12K new joiners, so about 1,800 per day.
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