Sabato's Crystal Ball Expands The Electoral College Fringe To 7 States

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1282896490466353153?s=20

Source

[Mail-order President]

Biden isn't coming within 10 pts in any of those states

[Roll Roons]

Funny thing is that they previously didn't have any states as Likely R.

[Yoda]

Biden isn't coming within 10 pts in any of those states

The only 2 states on that list where Biden probably doesn't come within 10 points are Indiana and Missouri.

[WD]

They never did this in 2016, Trump is boned.

[Hope For A New Era]

Biden isn't coming within 10 pts in any of those states

The only 2 states on that list where Biden probably doesn't come within 10 points are Indiana and Missouri.

Trump +9

[John Dule]

Are we still listening to Sabato after 2016?

[Pericles]

Seems about right. It's hardest for me to see IN and MO flipping, but the close polls there mean Safe R is probably too much.

[WD]

Are we still listening to Sabato after 2016?

He was extremely accurate in 2018, only missed the Senate by 1 seat and underestimated the Dems in the house.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Texas, Georgia, and Ohio need to be moved to Tossup if they feel confident enough putting these on the periphery

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I can see the case for all but Missouri. I'm just going to laugh at all the pundits when Missouri  does what it has been doing for several decades: Trending Republican without ever looking back:

1992: D+4.6
1996: R+2.2
2000: R+3.8
2004: R+5.8
2008: R+7.4
2012: R+13.4
2016: R+20.7
2020: Probably R+23 or so

[Lognog]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/missouri-could-be-a-swing-state-again/

circa 2016. Although polling is in the single digits, we've seen this before and shouldn't be fooled by the reality of the state

[Pericles]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/missouri-could-be-a-swing-state-again/

circa 2016. Although polling is in the single digits, we've seen this before and shouldn't be fooled by the reality of the state

To be fair, the swing states in a D+2 election are a lot different from the swing states in a D+10 election.

[wbrocks67]

Are we still listening to Sabato after 2016?

He was extremely accurate in 2018, only missed the Senate by 1 seat and underestimated the Dems in the house.

it's getting really exhausting that so many people keep on ignoring that 2018 ever happened and that polling was actually very accurate that year

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/missouri-could-be-a-swing-state-again/

circa 2016. Although polling is in the single digits, we've seen this before and shouldn't be fooled by the reality of the state

To be fair, the swing states in a D+2 election are a lot different from the swing states in a D+10 election.

Not only that, 2000 and 2004 were similar in nature to 2016, but 2006, 2008 and 2012 were also due to Hurricane Katrina and Iraq Wae and Great Recession and Dems went back to winning Clinton states 1992 and 1996, IA, OH and FL. Rs want to live in past. Also, Gary Johnson was the margin of error in FL, AZ,,NC, WI, MI and PA +/-4 percentage

[BobbieMac]

I can see the case for all but Missouri. I'm just going to laugh at all the pundits when Missouri  does what it has been doing for several decades: Trending Republican without ever looking back:

1992: D+4.6
1996: R+2.2
2000: R+3.8
2004: R+5.8
2008: R+7.4
2012: R+13.4
2016: R+20.7
2020: Probably R+23 or so

What are these numbers? If its presidential elections they're wrong.

[Granite City]

I can see the case for all but Missouri. I'm just going to laugh at all the pundits when Missouri  does what it has been doing for several decades: Trending Republican without ever looking back:

1992: D+4.6
1996: R+2.2
2000: R+3.8
2004: R+5.8
2008: R+7.4
2012: R+13.4
2016: R+20.7
2020: Probably R+23 or so

What are these numbers? If its presidential elections they're wrong.

Partisan lean relative to the NPV

[Horus]

Way too generous to Biden.

[Brittain33]

Missouri is based on recent polling showing it close. The polls may be off-base, but that’s the data we have.

[Lognog]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/missouri-could-be-a-swing-state-again/

circa 2016. Although polling is in the single digits, we've seen this before and shouldn't be fooled by the reality of the state

To be fair, the swing states in a D+2 election are a lot different from the swing states in a D+10 election.

fair, but to for a state that voted 20 points to the right of the nation and didn't reelect a respected democratic senator in a huge D wave D+10 sounds like far fro enough to flip

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/missouri-could-be-a-swing-state-again/

circa 2016. Although polling is in the single digits, we've seen this before and shouldn't be fooled by the reality of the state

To be fair, the swing states in a D+2 election are a lot different from the swing states in a D+10 election.

fair, but to for a state that voted 20 points to the right of the nation and didn't reelect a respected democratic senator in a huge D wave D+10 sounds like far fro enough to flip

McCaskill wasn't exactly popular in MO going into her re-election in 2018, plus she actually has to face a good R challenger for once. Remember that MO almost elected Kander in 2016, and Kander was  a very strong canidate, it just wasn't the right year, but he still came close even though Ds failed to pick up seats in PA and WI that year. Biden is also probably a better fit for MO than Clinton, who flunked the entire rust belt. I don't see MO flipping yet, but I could definately see if narrowing up. Biden is already polling at 44% in MO. Clinton only got 38%, so it's hard to see Biden doing worse than Clinton in the state. Clinton never even got above 41% in MO in 2016.

[BobbieMac]

I can see the case for all but Missouri. I'm just going to laugh at all the pundits when Missouri  does what it has been doing for several decades: Trending Republican without ever looking back:

1992: D+4.6
1996: R+2.2
2000: R+3.8
2004: R+5.8
2008: R+7.4
2012: R+13.4
2016: R+20.7
2020: Probably R+23 or so

What are these numbers? If its presidential elections they're wrong.

Partisan lean relative to the NPV

Ah ok that makes sense!!

[OneJ]

Now move MS...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Now move MS...

Sorry MS is wayy too inelastic and polarized for Biden to get over the edge. The state could be close, but flipping it isn't happenning this cycle.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Now move MS...

Sorry MS is wayy too inelastic and polarized for Biden to get over the edge. The state could be close, but flipping it isn't happenning this cycle.

MS will flip before IN (or UT without a 3rd party or the LDS getting behind Biden). FWIW I think it's still safe R, along with most of this list, which looks like overcorrection to me (the only states that are likely R presidentially are AK, MO and MT).