Sabato's Crystal Ball Expands The Electoral College Fringe To 7 States
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Author Topic: Sabato's Crystal Ball Expands The Electoral College Fringe To 7 States  (Read 1450 times)
Heir of Camelot
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« Reply #25 on: July 14, 2020, 10:16:52 AM »
I think Montana will be high single digits barring some kind of comeback. Polling right now bears that out. Furthermore Downticket that will help immensely. Bullock likely wins and it's possible Kathleen Williams and Cooney do as well.
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OneJ
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« Reply #26 on: July 14, 2020, 10:19:36 AM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on July 14, 2020, 10:11:04 AM

Sorry MS is wayy too inelastic and polarized for Biden to get over the edge. The state could be close, but flipping it isn't happenning this cycle.

I was joking.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #27 on: July 14, 2020, 10:20:15 AM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on July 14, 2020, 10:11:04 AM

Sorry MS is wayy too inelastic and polarized for Biden to get over the edge. The state could be close, but flipping it isn't happenning this cycle.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #28 on: July 14, 2020, 10:26:46 AM »
Quote from: Yoda on July 14, 2020, 12:25:41 AM
Quote from: Dark Horse on July 14, 2020, 12:16:23 AM
Biden isn't coming within 10 pts in any of those states

The only 2 states on that list where Biden probably doesn't come within 10 points are Indiana and Missouri.

We need more Hoosier polls. There was one in May with Trump +10. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Biden lost it by single digits.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #29 on: July 14, 2020, 10:51:10 AM »
Quote from: 334 Freiwal on July 14, 2020, 10:26:46 AM
Quote from: Yoda on July 14, 2020, 12:25:41 AM
Quote from: Dark Horse on July 14, 2020, 12:16:23 AM
Biden isn't coming within 10 pts in any of those states

The only 2 states on that list where Biden probably doesn't come within 10 points are Indiana and Missouri.

We need more Hoosier polls. There was one in May with Trump +10. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Biden lost it by single digits.

Aren't Hoosiers from Illinois?
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #30 on: July 14, 2020, 10:54:30 AM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on July 14, 2020, 10:51:10 AM
Quote from: 334 Freiwal on July 14, 2020, 10:26:46 AM
Quote from: Yoda on July 14, 2020, 12:25:41 AM
Quote from: Dark Horse on July 14, 2020, 12:16:23 AM
Biden isn't coming within 10 pts in any of those states

The only 2 states on that list where Biden probably doesn't come within 10 points are Indiana and Missouri.

We need more Hoosier polls. There was one in May with Trump +10. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Biden lost it by single digits.

Aren't Hoosiers from Illinois?

Only according to people in St. Louis Smiley
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #31 on: July 14, 2020, 11:01:45 AM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on July 14, 2020, 10:51:10 AM
Quote from: 334 Freiwal on July 14, 2020, 10:26:46 AM
Quote from: Yoda on July 14, 2020, 12:25:41 AM
Quote from: Dark Horse on July 14, 2020, 12:16:23 AM
Biden isn't coming within 10 pts in any of those states

The only 2 states on that list where Biden probably doesn't come within 10 points are Indiana and Missouri.

We need more Hoosier polls. There was one in May with Trump +10. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Biden lost it by single digits.

Aren't Hoosiers from Illinois?

How dare you
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Astatine
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« Reply #32 on: July 14, 2020, 11:50:57 AM »
« Edited: July 20, 2020, 02:38:16 PM by Astatine »
Well, if New Mexico is rated Likely D, it just makes sense to rate those states Likely R.
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Xing
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« Reply #33 on: July 14, 2020, 11:58:55 AM »
I get AK, and maybe you could make an argument for KS, MT, and SC. IN/MO/UT, though? Laughable. They wouldn’t be within single digits in a Bidenslide.
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Gracile
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« Reply #34 on: July 14, 2020, 12:05:48 PM »
Some of these ratings are jumping the gun IMO.
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Canis
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« Reply #35 on: August 01, 2020, 02:55:22 PM »
IN and MO are safe R I don't think even in the biggest of biden landslides they would come into single digits I can see the arguments for UT MT KS and AK but I honestly expect all of these states to vote for trump by quite a bit I could see them being closer than expected tho
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #36 on: August 01, 2020, 03:03:28 PM »
MS will flip before Missouri and Indiana(none of the three will flip though)
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #37 on: August 01, 2020, 03:04:50 PM »
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on August 01, 2020, 03:03:28 PM
MS will flip before Missouri and Indiana(none of the three will flip though)

I have to respectfully disagree. Thing is MS is very inelastic, and is therefore less prone to waves, along with many other states that have many identifiable one sided communities. I feel like on average, MS could be closer than IN and MO, but IN and MO have a better chance of flippin'
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