Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[afleitch]

Rumours about Rutherglen were shee ite.

[jeron]

Lib Dems hold Shetland on a 19 point swing to the SNP.

Far and away the best result for the SNP in this seat with 41.9%. During regular elections they never got over 30%. Dissatisfaction over Brexit?

[Oryxslayer]

SNP gain Ayr off a marginal result.

[beesley]

Very likely to mean that SNP Minister Paul Wheelhouse won't be returning to Holyrood - good news for his party is bad news for him personally. The only other SNP MSP at risk of not making it appears to be Joan McAlpine.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Very good SNP result and disappointing LD result in much of Charles Kennedy's old seat.

[Tintrlvr]

Lib Dems hold Shetland on a 19 point swing to the SNP.

Far and away the best result for the SNP in this seat with 41.9%. During regular elections they never got over 30%. Dissatisfaction over Brexit?

Not sure why dissatisfaction over Brexit would hurt the LDs. Longtime LD incumbent and former leader Tavish Scott retired a couple of years ago, and the incumbent LD MSP has only been there since a 2019 by-election (which also saw a big swing to the SNP, though not quite as large). Presumably the change is mainly caused by a loss of incumbency advantages.

[Oryxslayer]

SNP hold Moray despite a significant Tory challenge. I get the feeling the SNP majority will be made or lost in the Tory-SNP seats in the Northeast and South.

[Oryxslayer]

Con hold Dunfriesshire with a increased majority thanks to unionist tactical voting from Labour.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Am I right that Scottish Tories are more willing to vote SLab than the other way round?

[Oryxslayer]

Edinburgh Central flips SNP for Angus Robertson. Robertson swept up some labour and Green voters and came over the previous Conservative total. Flip from Ruth Davidson's personal vote to Robertson's.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Edinburgh Central flips SNP for Angus Robertson. Robertson swept up some labour and Green voters and came over the previous Conservative total. Flip from Ruth Davidson's personal vote to Robertson's.

Initially quite hopeful about Scotland, I am now despondent.

[AndyHogan14]

Edinburgh Central flips SNP for Angus Robertson. Robertson swept up some labour and Green voters and came over the previous Conservative total. Flip from Ruth Davidson's personal vote to Robertson's.

Initially quite hopeful about Scotland, I am now despondent.

Is an SNP majority now possible? If so, that's terrible...I'm resigned to the idea of an SNP/Green majority, but an outright SNP majority would be beyond awful.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Edinburgh Central flips SNP for Angus Robertson. Robertson swept up some labour and Green voters and came over the previous Conservative total. Flip from Ruth Davidson's personal vote to Robertson's.

Initially quite hopeful about Scotland, I am now despondent.

Is an SNP majority now possible? If so, that's terrible...I'm resigned to the idea of an SNP/Green majority, but an outright SNP majority would be beyond awful.

John Curtice:
'The SNP victory in Edinburgh Central, widely anticipated in the wake of Ruth Davidson's decision to stand down, means the SNP are now half way to their target of winning six marginal constituency seats in order to get to 65 seats.'

I'm quite sad for Scotland.

[Oryxslayer]

Edinburgh Central flips SNP for Angus Robertson. Robertson swept up some labour and Green voters and came over the previous Conservative total. Flip from Ruth Davidson's personal vote to Robertson's.

Initially quite hopeful about Scotland, I am now despondent.

Is an SNP majority now possible? If so, that's terrible...I'm resigned to the idea of an SNP/Green majority, but an outright SNP majority would be beyond awful.

Once again, it depends. Seats have so far moved in one direction, but the SNP need to gain quite a few more and tactical voting in other areas could hurt them. Remains a tossup.

Edinburgh Southern being held by Labour for example narrows their path.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

Can't blame anyone for wanting to get away from the flaming rubbish heap that is England in 2021. Whole place hijacked by gammons with zero critical thinking skills.

[Continential]

Labour holds Edinburgh Southern.

[beesley]

I'm quite sad for Scotland. Hope they don't hold an illegal referendum if the SNP gets a majority.

I'm a staunch unionist but if the SNP get a majority they should hold a referendum if the Scottish Parliament voted for it. Blatant hypocrisy from the Tories to say only they could stop a referendum at Holyrood and then to have Westminster block it when that is rejected.

[afleitch]

Recount in Dumbarton. SNP apparently 25 votes ahead and Labour have asked for a recount.

[beesley]

Recount in Dumbarton. SNP apparently 25 votes ahead and Labour have asked for a recount.

So much for unbeatable titan Jackie Baillie. She'll obviously get in on the list though.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I'm quite sad for Scotland. Hope they don't hold an illegal referendum if the SNP gets a majority.

I'm a staunch unionist but if the SNP get a majority they should hold a referendum if the Scottish Parliament voted for it. Blatant hypocrisy from the Tories to say only they could stop a referendum at Holyrood and then to have Westminster block it when that is rejected.

They might have a mandate for it, I'm just saying I hope they don't.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Odd: Labour down 6 in Cunninghame South, and the Tories up 6; even though this is an SNP seat where Lab were second.

[Oryxslayer]

Conservatives hold Eastwood with Labour tactical voting, but some of those tactical voters went for the SNP.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour holds Dunbarton. That is big. Massive unionist tactical voting.

[afleitch]

Labour holds Dunbarton. That is big. Massive unionist tactical voting.

True; though most of the tactical voting has been Conservative to Labour or Lib Dem.

Again, count rumours of it being razor thin were being shared seconds before it was announced. Most of the count rumours have actually been pretty bad this time round!

[AndyHogan14]

I'm quite sad for Scotland. Hope they don't hold an illegal referendum if the SNP gets a majority.

I'm a staunch unionist but if the SNP get a majority they should hold a referendum if the Scottish Parliament voted for it. Blatant hypocrisy from the Tories to say only they could stop a referendum at Holyrood and then to have Westminster block it when that is rejected.

I agree. As much as I don't want to see a second referendum, it would be extremely unwise for Westminster to block it. That could energize those in favor of independence. Also, while it would be hypocritical to say such a referendum needs a super-majority (considering the rules for the last indyref and the Brexit referendum), it is ridiculous that a bare majority could break up the union.