Maine - Tarrance Group/1820 PAC (R)/National Journal: Collins +1%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/707522/dont-count-susan-collins-out-yet

Taken in Late April

Collins 48%
Gideon 47%

Additionally:
"The poll found her favorability rating had increased 7 points from January to April, and stood at 53 percent."

As they're giving this data to the Journal as figures that are supposed to be good for Collins (they're pretty bad and the Republicans were faring better in April nationwide), I'm moving ME-SEN from tilt to lean D.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/707522/dont-count-susan-collins-out-yet

Taken in Late April

Collins 48%
Gideon 47%

Additionally:
"The poll found her favorability rating had increased 7 points from January to April, and stood at 53 percent."

As they're giving this data to the Journal as figures that are supposed to be good for Collins (they're pretty bad and the Republicans were faring better in April nationwide), I'm moving ME-SEN from tilt to lean D.

Late April? Why is it taking this long for the poll to be released? And as a internal, this is an especially alarming result for Susan Collins.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/707522/dont-count-susan-collins-out-yet

Taken in Late April

Collins 48%
Gideon 47%

Additionally:
"The poll found her favorability rating had increased 7 points from January to April, and stood at 53 percent."

As they're giving this data to the Journal as figures that are supposed to be good for Collins (they're pretty bad and the Republicans were faring better in April nationwide), I'm moving ME-SEN from tilt to lean D.

Late April? Why is it taking this long for the poll to be released? And as a internal, this is an especially alarming result for Susan Collins.

It could be because they're not polling that often, but it's also quite possible that they're not getting any data as good as Collins +1% after that point. It looks like they're losing control of the race here.

[Mr. Smith]

Meh, I'd take Tarrance with a grain of salt. I worked for 'em a few times, and they always loaded up the questions in the most establishment favoring way. (whether it be what they did for Pearce, Cramer, Dana Rohrabacher, or Adam Putnam)..grammar, spelling, and basic usage be da*&ed.

[We Live in Black and White]

As previously indicated, this is a Collins internal. In other words, if I were the GOP, this would be me right now.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Junk poll.

[Zaybay]

Yeesh, is this the best they can muster?

[NOVA Green]

Yeesh, is this the best they can muster?

So looking maybe like a "dialing for dollars" type moment, plus maybe getting "Moscow Mitch" and other Pub Senators to throw her a lifeline before the boat sinks?

[kph14]

Collins will lose and it won't be close

[Person Man]

The only way Collins wins here is that Trump wins unless she really finds a way to rebuild her reputation as a "liberal" Republican.

[Orser67]

#LeanD

[Sir Mohamed]

As a result of this poll, Susan Collins changes her attidude for this race from troubled to alarmed.

[Horus]

Pure tossup, will be decided by under a point either way.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Overrated:

*snip*

- Susan Collins - Is she a strong incumbent?  Sure, but much weaker than she used to be.  Is she an unbeatable titan?  LOL, of course not.  Collins could win re-election, but she has a pretty tough slog ahead of her and at the very least, it'll likely be the toughest Senate race of her career (and the first truly competitive one since she was elected in 1996).  I don't think Collins is in such great shape and would be more surprised if she wins re-election than if she loses (assuming the Democrats don't screw up candidate recruitment), but we shall see.

*snip*

I now accept my accolades

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Margin of error is meaningless

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins bucked the D wave in 2008, she can do so again

[S019]

Collins bucked the D wave in 2008, she can do so again

You alternate between calling Collins inevitable and saying she's DOA, it's so confusing and it's borderline trolling. Anyways, what we now know is that at the moment, this race is between Collins+1 and Gideon+9, which were the numbers we saw from the two internals and thus, it's a logical range. My guess is that both candidates are under 50, and Gideon would win if the election was tomorrow, however Collins' fate isn't as tied to the national environment as some other GOP incumbents, so she still has room for a comeback. I would not be shocked if both candidates are still under 50% by polling on Election Day. Anyways, we need a high quality poll here and not internal polls. This is probably the race where we most need a high quality, nonpartisan poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins bucked the D wave in 2008, she can do so again

You alternate between calling Collins inevitable and saying she's DOA, it's so confusing and it's borderline trolling. Anyways, what we now know is that at the moment, this race is between Collins+1 and Gideon+9, which were the numbers we saw from the two internals and thus, it's a logical range. My guess is that both candidates are under 50, and Gideon would win if the election was tomorrow, however Collins' fate isn't as tied to the national environment as some other GOP incumbents, so she still has room for a comeback. I would not be shocked if both candidates are still under 50% by polling on Election Day. Anyways, we need a high quality poll here and not internal polls. This is probably the race where we most need a high quality, nonpartisan poll.

It's not trolling, Dems are winning the Senate anyways and Ds always had a ME2 problem, look what happened in 2016. Collins will vote for Biden legislation and nominees anyways. Dems are doing alot better against more conservative candidates like Daines, Marshall and McSally

[Progressive Pessimist]

As previously indicated, this is a Collins internal. In other words, if I were the GOP, this would be me right now.

Your image is inaccurate, a Republican would be wearing a Confederate uniform instead.