Most overrated/underrated Senate candidates? Part III (2020)

[MT Treasurer]

I (or someone else?) will/should bump this thread after the election.

Overrated
- John Cornyn (R-TX): Everyone seems to assume that he’s more popular than Ted Cruz, but I don’t think there’s any actual evidence for that claim. If anything, I’d argue that he’s easier to take out than Cruz. Of course he might get lucky if the national environment is better for the GOP in 2020 than this year, but I’m not convinced that he’s unbeatable.
- Gary Peters (D-MI): Peters doesn’t exactly strike me as an incumbent who will run far ahead of the presidential nominee, so I don’t get why some people think this is Likely D if the presidential race is close (in which case MI would almost certainly be within 3%). Of course he’s unlikely to lose in a good year for Democrats, but he’s not going to survive a "great" year for Republicans, and arguments about the lack or poor "candidate quality" of the GOP bench are pretty overblown here IMO. I’m getting Bill Nelson vibes both from him and Cornyn.
- Steve Daines (R-MT): This has been discussed ad nauseam. There’s no way Daines, who got very lucky in 2014, is "heavily favored" if Bullock runs against him. Of course people are going to argue that "increasing polarization" and the fact that this is a Senate and not a gubernatorial race are going to hurt Bullock, but Jon Tester did 23 points better than Clinton in a federal race even though turnout was a higher than in 2016 (which you’d assume would benefit a Republican in a Senate race in a "red" state) and Trump actively campaigned against him. Didn’t matter, even though polarization is supposedly at an all-time high. Hmmm...
- Pat Roberts (R-KS): Given how badly he underperformed in 2014 (a GOP wave year), I have a hard time believing that someone like Svaty wouldn’t at least give him a scare in 2020. The state is also trending Democratic.

Underrated
- Joni Ernst (R-IA): I don’t really buy that this race is more winnable for Democrats than Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Montana, Alaska, etc., especially if the presidential race is close. Sure, Ernst isn’t quite safe, but unless 2018 is a Democratic tsunami I don’t think there’s much Democrats can do to win here. She’ll probably run ahead of Trump, even if it’s just by 1%-3%, and that should be enough. It’s true that Ernst is hardly the sharpest knife in the drawer, but somehow I doubt that’s going to hurt her among swing voters, lol. Ask Senator Rosendale how easy it is to defeat an incumbent who capitalizes on their "populist veteran farm [girl/boy]" shtick.  
- Susan Collins (R-ME): People can scream about "polarization!" all they want, but she won with nearly 70% of the vote in 2014 and is still fairly popular. Sure, obviously hardcore Democrats who view her as a "fake moderate" won’t vote for her, but she doesn’t need their votes in a Republican-trending Clinton +3 state. Just because every state voted the same way for Senate and president in 2016 doesn’t mean that it’s guaranteed to happen again in 2020. I think Collins wins this by 5%-12% or something like that, depending on who the Democrats nominate.
- Steve Bullock (D-MT): He’s more likely to be the Rick Scott/Maggie Hassan of 2020, certainly not a Bayh or Bredesen like this forum seems to think.
- Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH): The fact that many actually think this will be a competitive race is pretty hilarious. Some people never learn.
- Mark Warner (D-VA): Simply because pretty much every VA Democrat is underrated these days. This race isn’t "Lean" or "Likely" D, it’s Titanium D no matter what. Period.
- Doug Jones (D-AL): Yeah, it’s not looking good for him, and I’m not saying that he’ll win, but rating it Safe R probably goes a bridge too far, especially since we don’t even know his opponent yet. Also, Jones is a far stronger incumbent than Heitkamp or McCaskill (who still outperformed Clinton by a lot despite "polarization") and red states have shown an openness to splitting tickets that we haven’t really seen in blue states in a long time, which is why it’s entirely plausible to say that Jones is (slightly) more likely to win than Gardner.
- Mitch McConnell (R-KY): No explanation needed, lol.

[IceSpear]

I guess I'll go by Atlas standards, since there hasn't really been enough to judge from pundit "conventional wisdom" yet.

Overrated:
Jones (He has zero chance and only won because his opponent was a pedophile)
Roberts (An old fossil who struggled to win in a red wave year in a D trending state is not safe, but leave it to Atlas to think he's less likely to lose than McConnell)
Peters (Peters is mediocre and only won in a landslide because his opponent imploded, and Stabenow just underperformed the generic ballot numbers significantly)
Cornyn (Yes, he's less controversial than Cruz, but he's also a total nonentity, which is rarely a good thing)

Underrated:
Sullivan (Some think this could be competitive, but it won't be)
Gardner (He will likely lose, but the race is not safe D this early)
Ernst (As you said, people will way underestimate her #populism and folksiness and what the hell ever, as well as Iowa's Republican trend)
McConnell (It's getting like Charlie Brown and Lucy at this point. The idea that Dems could knock off McConnell at the same time Trump is carrying the state by 30+ points is comical)
Collins (She's definitely more vulnerable than she has been in the past, but that's not saying much. Atlas D hacks already writing her obituary need to check themselves)
Hyde-Smith (She has zero chance of losing a primary or a general)
Warner (Just because some people actually think it isn't safe D)

Most of the underrated are Republicans since this site is filled with D hacks, but that could change once we get some spicy hot takes from the pundits, like when they told me Shalala, Lamb, Wexton, and Rosen were in toss up races.

[Politician]

Overrated:
Jones
Sullivan
Gardner
Perdue
Ernst
Shaheen
Tillis
Cornyn

Underrated:
McConnell
Collins
Smith
Warner

[lfromnj]

I guess I'll go by Atlas standards, since there hasn't really been enough to judge from pundit "conventional wisdom" yet.

Overrated:
Jones (He has zero chance and only won because his opponent was a pedophile)
Roberts (An old fossil who struggled to win in a red wave year in a D trending state is not safe, but leave it to Atlas to think he's less likely to lose than McConnell)
Peters (Peters is mediocre and only won in a landslide because his opponent imploded, and Stabenow just underperformed the generic ballot numbers significantly)
Cornyn (Yes, he's less controversial than Cruz, but he's also a total nonentity, which is rarely a good thing)

Underrated:
Sullivan (Some think this could be competitive, but it won't be)
Gardner (He will likely lose, but the race is not safe D this early)
Ernst (As you said, people will way underestimate her #populism and folksiness and what the hell ever, as well as Iowa's Republican trend)
McConnell (It's getting like Charlie Brown and Lucy at this point. The idea that Dems could knock off McConnell at the same time Trump is carrying the state by 30+ points is comical)
Collins (She's definitely more vulnerable than she has been in the past, but that's not saying much. Atlas D hacks already writing her obituary need to check themselves)
Hyde-Smith (She has zero chance of losing a primary or a general)
Warner (Just because some people actually think it isn't safe D)

Most of the underrated are Republicans since this site is filled with D hacks, but that could change once we get some spicy hot takes from the pundits, like when they told me Shalala, Lamb, Wexton, and Rosen were in toss up races.

Agree on all besides alaska. Alaska is idiosyncratic enough that something weird could happen. I don't think it's super competetive but it could be on the edge of the field.I also think erst is probably gonna win but mostly because the dems will nominate tom vilsack instead of jd scholten.

And I laugh at people who think that Gardner is as doomed as doug jones. No one thinks Gardner will win but he still has a chance this far out

[Xing]

Overrated:
Ernst: There, I said it. Yes, she's favored at this point, but no way is she safe or less likely to lose than Sullivan, Cornyn, or McConnell. It's strange how many people say that the Democrats winning three out of four House races and coming surprisingly close to a fourth is meaningless, but that the gubernatorial race tells us everything about Iowa.

Jones: Not because people think he's favored, but because people think he actually has a shot.

Gardner: This race is going to be NV-SEN 2018 all over again.

Peters: While I think he's probably favored, like Ernst, he's not safe, and this is a race where Democrats will have to play defense.

Underrated:
McConnell: How many times do Democrats need to get burned here before realizing that this race is Safe R?

Bullock: Assuming he runs, this race should not be rated Likely R. While he's overrated as a presidential candidate, he would make the Senate race here legitimately competitive.

Shaheen:People act as though she could easily fall to an opponent other than Sununu (thus the "Toss-Up"/"Tilt D" ratings. She's not more vulnerable than Peters, and even if Sununu is her opponent, I doubt she loses if Trump can't win New Hampshire.

Roberts: I agree that he's a weak candidate and probably shouldn't be running, but he's not Kobach levels of bad. The gubernatorial race doesn't mean that Kansas is suddenly a swing state, or is Ed Markey vulnerable? Not to mention, Goofy Greg will probably run again. Roberts isn't going to lose.

Collins is both underrated and overrated.

[Zaybay]

Ill take a shot at it. Im only going to do 4 for each, though, so 8 senators in total.

Overrated:

John Cornyn: The TX senator is usually considered the stronger of the two, but for what reason, I cannot fathom. He has a worse approval rating than Cruz in almost all polling, and has a large segment of the TX population that has no idea who he is. Not only that, hes not a spring chicken anymore, and fails to be enthusiastic or energizing. Not to mention the increase in Hispanic voters that the state will experience, due to it being a presidential election.

Pat Roberts: The guy is old, unpopular, and in a D trending state. Even in 2014, against indie Greg Orman, he underpreformed. If he sticks on the ballot, expect a flip or close result if a Blue Wave hits 2020.

Thom Tillis: A rather unpopular senator in a state that has a strong D bench, not to mention a popular D governor on the ballot. If the Ds take the senate, Tillis will probably represent one of the losses.

Gary Peters: Gary has remained rather unknown in the state of MI, a state that had the smallest swing on the congressional level when compared to PA and WI. While the MI bench has been decimated, a good candidate could force Ds to spend money and put on defenses for the seat.

Underrated:

Steve Bullock: MT saw some really interesting shifts in 2018. Not only was the voter turnout higher than in 2016, but the rurals maxed out in the East, and the state still trended D, thanks to the Western 1/2 of the state. Bullock also remains a rather popular governor, and Daines is rather average when it comes to voter approval.

Jeanne Shaheen: I get it, NH looks like an easy state for the Rs to take back. Well, if Rs think they can unseat one of the most popular senators in the US, all power to them.

Tina Smith: The new senator of MN has oddly been considered a target for Rs? I dont see it. The state of MN doesnt have a quick enough R trend to counter the D trend in the Twin Metro, and not only is the MNREP bench weak to start off with, Smith is also above average, approval-wise.

Mitch McConnell: While he is extremely unpopular, he is also extremely entrenched. It would take a lot, and I mean, a lot, to unseat him.

[NewYorkExpress]

Overrated:

Roberts

McConnell (If Lundergan Grimes runs again, McConnell easily could lose. He's never had to share a ballot with a President as unpopular as President Trump)

Collins

Alexander

Jones

Markey

Underrated:

Daines

Shaheen

Tillis

[Lognog]

I (or someone else?) will/should bump this thread after the election.

Overrated
- John Cornyn (R-TX): Everyone seems to assume that he’s more popular than Ted Cruz, but I don’t think there’s any actual evidence for that claim. If anything, I’d argue that he’s easier to take out than Cruz. Of course he might get lucky if the national environment is better for the GOP in 2020 than this year, but I’m not convinced that he’s unbeatable.
- Gary Peters (D-MI): Peters doesn’t exactly strike me as an incumbent who will run far ahead of the presidential nominee, so I don’t get why some people think this is Likely D if the presidential race is close (in which case MI would almost certainly be within 3%). Of course he’s unlikely to lose in a good year for Democrats, but he’s not going to survive a "great" year for Republicans, and arguments about the lack or poor "candidate quality" of the GOP bench are pretty overblown here IMO. I’m getting Bill Nelson vibes both from him and Cornyn.
- Steve Daines (R-MT): This has been discussed ad nauseam. There’s no way Daines, who got very lucky in 2014, is "heavily favored" if Bullock runs against him. Of course people are going to argue that "increasing polarization" and the fact that this is a Senate and not a gubernatorial race are going to hurt Bullock, but Jon Tester did 23 points better than Clinton in a federal race even though turnout was a higher than in 2016 (which you’d assume would benefit a Republican in a Senate race in a "red" state) and Trump actively campaigned against him. Didn’t matter, even though polarization is supposedly at an all-time high. Hmmm...
- Pat Roberts (R-KS): Given how badly he underperformed in 2014 (a GOP wave year), I have a hard time believing that someone like Svaty wouldn’t at least give him a scare in 2020. The state is also trending Democratic.

Underrated
- Joni Ernst (R-IA): I don’t really buy that this race is more winnable for Democrats than Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Montana, Alaska, etc., especially if the presidential race is close. Sure, Ernst isn’t quite safe, but unless 2018 is a Democratic tsunami I don’t think there’s much Democrats can do to win here. She’ll probably run ahead of Trump, even if it’s just by 1%-3%, and that should be enough. It’s true that Ernst is hardly the sharpest knife in the drawer, but somehow I doubt that’s going to hurt her among swing voters, lol. Ask Senator Rosendale how easy it is to defeat an incumbent who capitalizes on their "populist veteran farm [girl/boy]" shtick.  
- Susan Collins (R-ME): People can scream about "polarization!" all they want, but she won with nearly 70% of the vote in 2014 and is still fairly popular. Sure, obviously hardcore Democrats who view her as a "fake moderate" won’t vote for her, but she doesn’t need their votes in a Republican-trending Clinton +3 state. Just because every state voted the same way for Senate and president in 2016 doesn’t mean that it’s guaranteed to happen again in 2020. I think Collins wins this by 5%-12% or something like that, depending on who the Democrats nominate.
- Steve Bullock (D-MT): He’s more likely to be the Rick Scott/Maggie Hassan of 2020, certainly not a Bayh or Bredesen like this forum seems to think.
- Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH): The fact that many actually think this will be a competitive race is pretty hilarious. Some people never learn.
- Mark Warner (D-VA): Simply because pretty much every VA Democrat is underrated these days. This race isn’t "Lean" or "Likely" D, it’s Titanium D no matter what. Period.
- Doug Jones (D-AL): Yeah, it’s not looking good for him, and I’m not saying that he’ll win, but rating it Safe R probably goes a bridge too far, especially since we don’t even know his opponent yet. Also, Jones is a far stronger incumbent than Heitkamp or McCaskill (who still outperformed Clinton by a lot despite "polarization") and red states have shown an openness to splitting tickets that we haven’t really seen in blue states in a long time, which is why it’s entirely plausible to say that Jones is (slightly) more likely to win than Gardner.
- Mitch McConnell (R-KY): No explanation needed, lol.

I completely agree with almost every word of this with the exceptions of

1. Bullock is going to run for president, not senate as seen by how he acted about the Tester quote

2. Jones is not as strong as an incumbent as McCaskill who represented her state for twelve years and Heidkamp who represented her state for 6 years.

[IceSpear]

McConnell (If Lundergan Grimes runs again, McConnell easily could lose. He's never had to share a ballot with a President as unpopular as President Trump)

Are you daft? Trump is very popular in Kentucky.

[jamestroll]

I am the only one on this site who believes that Michigan is trending Republican and that Gary Peters is not dead on arrival simultaneously.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MI isnt trending GOP is a blue battleground state.  They voted for Trump due to Clinton scandals. It will along with Wi again vote Dem to form the 272-279 blue crescent

[Xing]

I am the only one on this site who believes that Michigan is trending Republican and that Gary Peters is not dead on arrival simultaneously.

Gary Peters certainly isn't anything like DOA. I'd call the race Lean D, and say that he's slightly more likely to win re-election than the Democratic candidate for president.

[Skye]

Underrated:

McConnell: Just wait until people begin to fantasize he's vulnerable again.
Gardner: Those "Safe D" takes are something else, truly peak Atlas.

Overrated:

Jones: Maybe? He's the underdog, and unless the GOP nominates Moore again, he's more likely than not going to lose.


I don't think Roberts is overrated lol, not after both of his 2014 scares. It's just that Trump will win KS again and that will probably means Roberts is going to win too. Maybe he'll find himself in a Blunt '16 position, though.

[DaWN]

Overrated
G̶a̶r̶d̶n̶e̶r̶:̶ ̶H̶e̶l̶l̶e̶r̶ ̶2̶.̶0̶,̶ ̶e̶x̶c̶e̶p̶t̶ ̶C̶o̶l̶o̶r̶a̶d̶o̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶b̶l̶u̶e̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶N̶e̶v̶a̶d̶a̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶T̶r̶u̶m̶p̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶b̶a̶l̶l̶o̶t̶ ̶w̶e̶i̶g̶h̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶h̶i̶m̶ ̶d̶o̶w̶n̶.̶ ̶L̶o̶s̶e̶s̶ ̶e̶v̶e̶n̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶a̶ ̶m̶o̶d̶e̶r̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶R̶ ̶y̶e̶a̶r̶.̶
Roberts: Under-performing in 2014 of all years isn't a great sign and last month demonstrated there's a pretty easy Dem path to victory in KS. It's Likely R though, and I'm guessing he might retire anyway .
Collins: She's definitely favoured as of now but a) That could easily change with a good candidate/environment and b) She simply isn't going to cruise to victory like she has in the past.
Jones: In the wider punditry sphere rather than on this forum (where if anything he's ever so slightly underrated), because obviously everyone will act like this is a Tossup/Lean R race when it quite blatantly isn't.

Underrated
Gardner: Obviously a strong moderate INCUMBENT who will run 16327393 points ahead of Trump because he's an incumbent, there will be lots of Dem nominee-Gardner voters because reasons and don't forget he's an incumbent.
McConnell: He's not losing. Come to peace with it now, it'll save you a lot of bother later.
Shaheen: Sununu is hilariously overrated, and yet he's probably still the best candidate the NH GOP could put up.

Rated about right
Corbyn & Ernst: Pretty conclusively favoured right now, but that could change with a good candidate and a positive Dem environment. Seems to be the median consensus.

[KaiserDave]

Overated:

Mike Espy: Maybe it's just hardcore Dems who think he can win or has a chance, but in a presidential year there is little chance he'll lose by less then 10ish

Cory Gardner:
Cory Gardner has voted like Ted Cruz (except on marijuana) in a Clinton +5 state. He is easily the Dean Heller of 2020, and especially if Hickenlooper runs, will be smoked accordingly in 2020.

Mike Beebe:
Obviously Bredesen Beebe is a popular former governor who won every county in his reelection bid and will defeat the overly conservative Blackburn Cotton who is a weak candidate in a general election.

Charlie Baker:
I love Charlie as much as the next guy, but I do not think he will run for the seat, and if he did, he'd face a popular Markey in a presidential year, or a popular Joe Kennedy III/Niki Tsongas/Marty Walsh. Bill Weld tried this too against John Kerry right after carrying 70% in 1994, he lost by 6ish.

Mitch Landrieu:
He might do about as well as his sister did in the runoff, but anybody who thinks a New Orleans mayor could beat Cassidy in a presidential year, increased polarization, yadayadayadayada. He ain't winning.

David Perdue:
He's unpopular, and if with a strong candidate (Barrow, Evans...idk about Abrams) and a good environment, this seat is flippable.

Anybody who runs against Capito:
Whether it's Goodwin, Tomblin, Tennant again, whoever. They will lose in this Trump +30 state in a presidential year.


Rated Accurately:

Doug Jones:
I have this race as Likely R, I think the consensus around Jones is likely accurate. If the GOP nominates a solid candidate like Byrne, Brooks, Roby, and definitely Ivey (if she runs). Jones will likely lose by some margin. But I think he could still be underestimated, especially if 2020 is a good year for the Democrats. Especially considering I've heard mumbles that Roy is mulling another run (and even Kayla!)

John Cornyn:
Again, I think the consensus is right, he's definitely favored. But with a strong challenger (Beto) and a good Democratic environment, and a good POTUS candidate, it could be close.


Underrated:

Mark Warner:
This is easily safely Democratic, and Warner could win by like 25 if Stewart runs again. It'll be hilarious.

Gary Peters:
Yeah, the only reason Stabenow underperformed was the strength of John James. Unless John James runs again, I don't think this can flip. Michigan is likely to flip in 2020, unless Dems nominate somebody awful (Clinton, Avenatti-lite, you know the list). He's not unpopular, he's just unknown, he won by 14 in a red wave year, yes I know his opponent imploded but that's impressive nevertheless.

Susan Collins:
IF she runs, and I think it's an if. She will win. Provided conservatives don't buck her in the primary, she'll win the general. She's still popular, and her state brand is very strong. But if she doesn't run, Democrats have their easiest pickup opportunity.

Tina Smith:
Anyone who thinks Smith will lose didn't watch the absolute drubbing of Housley, who was a strongish candidate.

Mitch McConnell
Ewwwwww, but yeah. Not in 2020, and other then Grimes, and Beshear is off the bench, Democrats don't have much to do here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Overrated:

- Steve Daines - He's not a weak incumbent or anything like that and is definitely a stronger candidate than Rosendale (I'd say he's about on par with Dennis Rehberg), but he's not the unbeatable titan some make him out to be (sort of like how Ohio leans Republican, but it's not the diehard bastion of Trumpist Republicanism that the CW now makes it out to be*).  While Bullock is definitely the best Democratic candidate here, I don't think we need him to beat Daines (it'd definitely help though).  The Democrats seem to have a decent bench here and a very strong state party, but obviously Bullock would be ideal.  I really hope Bullock doesn't think he can win the Presidential primaries because...well...lol. 

- John Cornyn - He'll almost certainly win, but the CW is that he's not even worth challenging with a credible opponent and I think that's silly.  We definitely want to run a credible A-list or strong B-list wave/scandal insurance candidate here.  Cornyn probably wins, but keeping things close could do wonders both for down the ballot turnout and for the name recognition of whatever enterprising up-and-comer is willing to take him on.  Plus, we want to continue to build on the progress we made here in 2018 and part of that is running credible candidates for statewide races going forward.  Last cycle, the only statewide candidates who weren't blatant sacrificial lambs were O'Rourke and arguably Justin Nelson (I think an A-list Democratic candidate for Texas AG, would've probably won in 2018) and yet even some of our weakest nominees like Mike Collier came reasonably close. 

- Susan Collins - Is she a strong incumbent?  Sure, but much weaker than she used to be.  Is she an unbeatable titan?  LOL, of course not.  Collins could win re-election, but she has a pretty tough slog ahead of her and at the very least, it'll likely be the toughest Senate race of her career (and the first truly competitive one since she was elected in 1996).  I don't think Collins is in such great shape and would be more surprised if she wins re-election than if she loses (assuming the Democrats don't screw up candidate recruitment), but we shall see.

- Cory Gardner - Just based on 2014 where he won largely b/c of how the media inexplicably turned into a collection of diehard pro-Gardner hacks that cycle (still very confused by that whole campaign tbh; why did the media collectively turn into the Cory Gardner fan club?), I'm guessing he'll be wildly over-rated this cycle despite the fact that he's probably toast (barring some unforeseeable scandal or bizarre recruiting fail).

- Joni Ernst - She strikes me as a pretty meh incumbent who got elected by beating a really weak opponent; I've never gotten why so many folks act like she's such a strong candidate.  I think a solid A-list recruit would make this an instant tossup.  I also don't think Iowa has lurched quite as far to the right as CW suggests. 

- Martha McSally - If she gets appointed to this seat right after losing to Sinema, she'll get beaten with that fact like a pinata in 2020 and it'll be a really effective attack. 

- Mark Kelly - Not sure why he always gets mentioned as a candidate for every race in Arizona. 

- Grant Woods - Running McCain's former Chief of Staff (a longtime Republican) as the Democratic nominee for Senate is just a really bad idea and whichever Democrat thought of it should feel bad  

- Chris Sununu - He's not running for Senate, but if he does then he'll lose.

- Jeanne Sheheen - She should win re-election, but she's not an unbeatable titan like some suggest (as in, I doubt she loses in 2020, but I could certainly see her losing to an A-list opponent during the next Republican wave election).

Underrated:

- Doug Jones - For the reasons stated by the OP

- Mitch McConnell - Duh.

- Various Montana Democrats not named "Steve Bullock" - See the section about Steve Daines

- Edward Markey - I'm not quite sure how this happened, but apparently the CW became that he'd be vulnerable against Seth Moulton (ROTFL) or Charlie Baker (with Trump on the ballot in a Presidential election year in MA lol).  Markey is not gonna lose to either of those folks; he's safe in the primary and even safer in the general. 

- David Perdue - He's not an unbeatable titan or anything, but I do think we'll face an uphill battle here.  Stacy Abrams or that former mayor from Columbus aren't gonna cut it.  We need a real A-list candidate here. 

- Gary Peters - Like Ernst, he's a pretty meh incumbent who won by beating an unexpectedly weak opponent in 2014.  However, I think Trump will actually be a net-negative for whomever Peters runs against this cycle and I think it'd take both a strong Republican year and an A-list opponent to beat Peters in 2020.  The second one is unlikely, but not impossible (Fred Upton might run, but he's from the wrong part of the state and might struggle in the primary).  However, regardless of what happens in the Presidential race, I really don't see 2020 being a Republican wave.  Peters probably wins an underwhelming victory no matter who he faces though and may well go down the next time he's up during a Republican wave. 

- Pat Roberts - Yes, he's an awful candidate and may lose the primary if he even runs for re-election, but Kris Kobach he is not.  This is safe R in the GE unless Roberts retires and Kris Kobach gets nominated against an A-list Democrat...then it's right on the border between Likely R and Safe R

- Greg Stanton - I get why Gallego might seem like a more exciting choice and Gallego could probably win, but I think Stanton is our strongest candidate for this race.  I'd be happy with Stanton or Gallego though and you can make good arguments for either one being the better pick.  Now watch us blow this race by nominating McCain's former Chief of Staff

[windjammer]

I (or someone else?) will/should bump this thread after the election.

Overrated
- John Cornyn (R-TX): Everyone seems to assume that he’s more popular than Ted Cruz, but I don’t think there’s any actual evidence for that claim. If anything, I’d argue that he’s easier to take out than Cruz. Of course he might get lucky if the national environment is better for the GOP in 2020 than this year, but I’m not convinced that he’s unbeatable.
- Gary Peters (D-MI): Peters doesn’t exactly strike me as an incumbent who will run far ahead of the presidential nominee, so I don’t get why some people think this is Likely D if the presidential race is close (in which case MI would almost certainly be within 3%). Of course he’s unlikely to lose in a good year for Democrats, but he’s not going to survive a "great" year for Republicans, and arguments about the lack or poor "candidate quality" of the GOP bench are pretty overblown here IMO. I’m getting Bill Nelson vibes both from him and Cornyn.
- Steve Daines (R-MT): This has been discussed ad nauseam. There’s no way Daines, who got very lucky in 2014, is "heavily favored" if Bullock runs against him. Of course people are going to argue that "increasing polarization" and the fact that this is a Senate and not a gubernatorial race are going to hurt Bullock, but Jon Tester did 23 points better than Clinton in a federal race even though turnout was a higher than in 2016 (which you’d assume would benefit a Republican in a Senate race in a "red" state) and Trump actively campaigned against him. Didn’t matter, even though polarization is supposedly at an all-time high. Hmmm...
- Pat Roberts (R-KS): Given how badly he underperformed in 2014 (a GOP wave year), I have a hard time believing that someone like Svaty wouldn’t at least give him a scare in 2020. The state is also trending Democratic.

Underrated
- Joni Ernst (R-IA): I don’t really buy that this race is more winnable for Democrats than Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Montana, Alaska, etc., especially if the presidential race is close. Sure, Ernst isn’t quite safe, but unless 2018 is a Democratic tsunami I don’t think there’s much Democrats can do to win here. She’ll probably run ahead of Trump, even if it’s just by 1%-3%, and that should be enough. It’s true that Ernst is hardly the sharpest knife in the drawer, but somehow I doubt that’s going to hurt her among swing voters, lol. Ask Senator Rosendale how easy it is to defeat an incumbent who capitalizes on their "populist veteran farm [girl/boy]" shtick.  
- Susan Collins (R-ME): People can scream about "polarization!" all they want, but she won with nearly 70% of the vote in 2014 and is still fairly popular. Sure, obviously hardcore Democrats who view her as a "fake moderate" won’t vote for her, but she doesn’t need their votes in a Republican-trending Clinton +3 state. Just because every state voted the same way for Senate and president in 2016 doesn’t mean that it’s guaranteed to happen again in 2020. I think Collins wins this by 5%-12% or something like that, depending on who the Democrats nominate.
- Steve Bullock (D-MT): He’s more likely to be the Rick Scott/Maggie Hassan of 2020, certainly not a Bayh or Bredesen like this forum seems to think.
- Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH): The fact that many actually think this will be a competitive race is pretty hilarious. Some people never learn.
- Mark Warner (D-VA): Simply because pretty much every VA Democrat is underrated these days. This race isn’t "Lean" or "Likely" D, it’s Titanium D no matter what. Period.
- Doug Jones (D-AL): Yeah, it’s not looking good for him, and I’m not saying that he’ll win, but rating it Safe R probably goes a bridge too far, especially since we don’t even know his opponent yet. Also, Jones is a far stronger incumbent than Heitkamp or McCaskill (who still outperformed Clinton by a lot despite "polarization") and red states have shown an openness to splitting tickets that we haven’t really seen in blue states in a long time, which is why it’s entirely plausible to say that Jones is (slightly) more likely to win than Gardner.
- Mitch McConnell (R-KY): No explanation needed, lol.

This except Alabama

[MycroftCZ]

Overrated
Steve Daines: Daines is really not that popular and if Bullock runs, which I'm still holding out hope that he does, this race is a Tossup. Daines has kinda blended in with the furniture in Washington and hasn't made much of an impression on anyone. He's definitely not safe, especially if Bullock runs. Bullock is much more like Maggie Hassan or Rick Scott than Bredesen or Strickland. I kinda agree that we don't necessarily NEED Bullock to run but I don't get the feeling the Dem bench is big enough or filled with A-list candidates that could actually beat Daines in a Presidential year. Bullock is definitely our best bet against Daines, and his Senate candidacy would help Democrats in the House race and the Governor's race.
Thom Tillis: Everyone seems to think that Maine is more competitive than North Carolina, which is completely ridiculous. North Carolina is trending Democratic, albeit very slowly, and has a popular Democratic Governor who will be at the top of the ticket in 2020. Tillis isn't really an Unbeatable Titan(unless he still has the beard in 2020) and I think the Democratic bench is very strong there too. Trump is going to do worse in every swing state in 2020 unless something drastically changes and North Carolina will likely be closer on the Presidential level, though I think Trump still wins, but that will also hurt Tillis and help the Democrat. I think the best Democratic candidate would state Sen. Jeff Jackson.
Chris Sununu: Sununu is probably not running anyway, but there's no way in hell that he's beating one of the most popular senators in the country. Shaheen has a strong brand in New Hampshire and is very likable too. SI have family in New Hampshire and they really don't like Sununu and say that if Democrats had just had a better candidate, Sununu would have lost. They see him as inexperienced and not serious enough to be Governor, let alone a Senator. But, he's probably not running anyway.
Ruben Gallego: Arguably, Sinema won because she ran a moderate campaign in a state that's still pretty conservative and against a candidate that had to tack right to win a late-in-the-year primary. Gallego is just too liberal to win statewide and I think nominating him would effectively give the seat to the GOP. I like him as a politician, but I think he's just too liberal to carve the same path that Sinema did in order to win. The best candidate for this seat is probably Greg Stanton, who would basically be pulling a Jacky Rosen. He's much more moderate and would do well in Maricopa County.
Underrated
David Perdue: Perdue is a likable guy and has a strong personal brand in the state, while also having the advantage of the last name Perdue. Sorry, but Stacey Abrams is not our best candidate. She just lost a statewide office to a TERRIBLE candidate and people aren't going to want to vote for a loser so soon after her loss. I love Stacey Abrams and I hope she runs for Governor in 2022 or even Congress in 2020, but she would not win if she runs for Senate. Other than Abrams, Ossoff would also not do well. And I don't know a lot about Teresa Tomlinson, the Mayor of Columbus. This race will be competitive but it starts out at Lean R for me.
Doug Jones: Jones is really popular in Alabama and is very likable and respected in many political circles in the state. He's definietly the underdog but this race is not over, especially if the GOP nominates a Roy Moore-esque candidate. Jones is moderate, common sense, and is very good at retail politics. Don't count him out.
Susan Collins: While the Kavanaugh vote hurt her, it will not be a major issue in 2020 and Collins is still incredibly popular in Maine. Also, if Pingree runs it'll be a do-over from her last failed Senate bid, and do-over bids rarely go better than the first. Collins is a moderate and actually a very good fit for the state, so if she runs for reelection she's probably pretty safe. But, if Collins retires, this'll be a pretty easy pickup for Dems.   
 

[GoldenMainer]

Maine edition (potential challengers to Susan Collins)-

Overrated:

Susan Rice- Weak ties to Maine, someone who can easily be tied to Washington D.C. isn't the best choice.

Cathleen London- Who? Didn't even vote for the Democrat in the race to unseat Bruce Poliquin.

Jared Golden- He's on this list not because he's a weak candidate (he's actually great!), but because he just won a highly contested U.S. House seat and I think he'd look too ambitious if he jumped right into a Senate race.

Chellie Pingree- Fine for the first district, I don't see how she appeals to the second district though.


Underrated:

Troy Jackson- Wins a Trump state senate district as a progressive, Senate Majority Leader, second district, logger, seen as an everyday guy, big on labor rights.

Erin Herbig- 5th generation resident of Waldo County, former Maine House Majority Leader, worked for Maine Farmland Trust, young, won her state senate district by 19 points in 2018 when the Republican won it by 3 in 2016, second district.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Overrated
Steve Daines: Daines is really not that popular and if Bullock runs, which I'm still holding out hope that he does, this race is a Tossup. Daines has kinda blended in with the furniture in Washington and hasn't made much of an impression on anyone. He's definitely not safe, especially if Bullock runs. Bullock is much more like Maggie Hassan or Rick Scott than Bredesen or Strickland. I kinda agree that we don't necessarily NEED Bullock to run but I don't get the feeling the Dem bench is big enough or filled with A-list candidates that could actually beat Daines in a Presidential year. Bullock is definitely our best bet against Daines, and his Senate candidacy would help Democrats in the House race and the Governor's race.
Thom Tillis: Everyone seems to think that Maine is more competitive than North Carolina, which is completely ridiculous. North Carolina is trending Democratic, albeit very slowly, and has a popular Democratic Governor who will be at the top of the ticket in 2020. Tillis isn't really an Unbeatable Titan(unless he still has the beard in 2020) and I think the Democratic bench is very strong there too. Trump is going to do worse in every swing state in 2020 unless something drastically changes and North Carolina will likely be closer on the Presidential level, though I think Trump still wins, but that will also hurt Tillis and help the Democrat. I think the best Democratic candidate would state Sen. Jeff Jackson.
Chris Sununu: Sununu is probably not running anyway, but there's no way in hell that he's beating one of the most popular senators in the country. Shaheen has a strong brand in New Hampshire and is very likable too. SI have family in New Hampshire and they really don't like Sununu and say that if Democrats had just had a better candidate, Sununu would have lost. They see him as inexperienced and not serious enough to be Governor, let alone a Senator. But, he's probably not running anyway.
Ruben Gallego: Arguably, Sinema won because she ran a moderate campaign in a state that's still pretty conservative and against a candidate that had to tack right to win a late-in-the-year primary. Gallego is just too liberal to win statewide and I think nominating him would effectively give the seat to the GOP. I like him as a politician, but I think he's just too liberal to carve the same path that Sinema did in order to win. The best candidate for this seat is probably Greg Stanton, who would basically be pulling a Jacky Rosen. He's much more moderate and would do well in Maricopa County.
Underrated
David Perdue: Perdue is a likable guy and has a strong personal brand in the state, while also having the advantage of the last name Perdue. Sorry, but Stacey Abrams is not our best candidate. She just lost a statewide office to a TERRIBLE candidate and people aren't going to want to vote for a loser so soon after her loss. I love Stacey Abrams and I hope she runs for Governor in 2022 or even Congress in 2020, but she would not win if she runs for Senate. Other than Abrams, Ossoff would also not do well. And I don't know a lot about Teresa Tomlinson, the Mayor of Columbus. This race will be competitive but it starts out at Lean R for me.
Doug Jones: Jones is really popular in Alabama and is very likable and respected in many political circles in the state. He's definietly the underdog but this race is not over, especially if the GOP nominates a Roy Moore-esque candidate. Jones is moderate, common sense, and is very good at retail politics. Don't count him out.
Susan Collins: While the Kavanaugh vote hurt her, it will not be a major issue in 2020 and Collins is still incredibly popular in Maine. Also, if Pingree runs it'll be a do-over from her last failed Senate bid, and do-over bids rarely go better than the first. Collins is a moderate and actually a very good fit for the state, so if she runs for reelection she's probably pretty safe. But, if Collins retires, this'll be a pretty easy pickup for Dems.   
 

I can promise you Doug Jones isn’t very popular in Alabama anymore.

[MycroftCZ]

Overrated
Steve Daines: Daines is really not that popular and if Bullock runs, which I'm still holding out hope that he does, this race is a Tossup. Daines has kinda blended in with the furniture in Washington and hasn't made much of an impression on anyone. He's definitely not safe, especially if Bullock runs. Bullock is much more like Maggie Hassan or Rick Scott than Bredesen or Strickland. I kinda agree that we don't necessarily NEED Bullock to run but I don't get the feeling the Dem bench is big enough or filled with A-list candidates that could actually beat Daines in a Presidential year. Bullock is definitely our best bet against Daines, and his Senate candidacy would help Democrats in the House race and the Governor's race.
Thom Tillis: Everyone seems to think that Maine is more competitive than North Carolina, which is completely ridiculous. North Carolina is trending Democratic, albeit very slowly, and has a popular Democratic Governor who will be at the top of the ticket in 2020. Tillis isn't really an Unbeatable Titan(unless he still has the beard in 2020) and I think the Democratic bench is very strong there too. Trump is going to do worse in every swing state in 2020 unless something drastically changes and North Carolina will likely be closer on the Presidential level, though I think Trump still wins, but that will also hurt Tillis and help the Democrat. I think the best Democratic candidate would state Sen. Jeff Jackson.
Chris Sununu: Sununu is probably not running anyway, but there's no way in hell that he's beating one of the most popular senators in the country. Shaheen has a strong brand in New Hampshire and is very likable too. SI have family in New Hampshire and they really don't like Sununu and say that if Democrats had just had a better candidate, Sununu would have lost. They see him as inexperienced and not serious enough to be Governor, let alone a Senator. But, he's probably not running anyway.
Ruben Gallego: Arguably, Sinema won because she ran a moderate campaign in a state that's still pretty conservative and against a candidate that had to tack right to win a late-in-the-year primary. Gallego is just too liberal to win statewide and I think nominating him would effectively give the seat to the GOP. I like him as a politician, but I think he's just too liberal to carve the same path that Sinema did in order to win. The best candidate for this seat is probably Greg Stanton, who would basically be pulling a Jacky Rosen. He's much more moderate and would do well in Maricopa County.
Underrated
David Perdue: Perdue is a likable guy and has a strong personal brand in the state, while also having the advantage of the last name Perdue. Sorry, but Stacey Abrams is not our best candidate. She just lost a statewide office to a TERRIBLE candidate and people aren't going to want to vote for a loser so soon after her loss. I love Stacey Abrams and I hope she runs for Governor in 2022 or even Congress in 2020, but she would not win if she runs for Senate. Other than Abrams, Ossoff would also not do well. And I don't know a lot about Teresa Tomlinson, the Mayor of Columbus. This race will be competitive but it starts out at Lean R for me.
Doug Jones: Jones is really popular in Alabama and is very likable and respected in many political circles in the state. He's definietly the underdog but this race is not over, especially if the GOP nominates a Roy Moore-esque candidate. Jones is moderate, common sense, and is very good at retail politics. Don't count him out.
Susan Collins: While the Kavanaugh vote hurt her, it will not be a major issue in 2020 and Collins is still incredibly popular in Maine. Also, if Pingree runs it'll be a do-over from her last failed Senate bid, and do-over bids rarely go better than the first. Collins is a moderate and actually a very good fit for the state, so if she runs for reelection she's probably pretty safe. But, if Collins retires, this'll be a pretty easy pickup for Dems.   
 

I can promise you Doug Jones isn’t very popular in Alabama anymore.

I mean, you'd probably know better than I do the mood in Alabama but his approval rating in October was at 43% with a 30% disapproval, which is pretty good for a Democrat from Alabama.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Overrated
Steve Daines: Daines is really not that popular and if Bullock runs, which I'm still holding out hope that he does, this race is a Tossup. Daines has kinda blended in with the furniture in Washington and hasn't made much of an impression on anyone. He's definitely not safe, especially if Bullock runs. Bullock is much more like Maggie Hassan or Rick Scott than Bredesen or Strickland. I kinda agree that we don't necessarily NEED Bullock to run but I don't get the feeling the Dem bench is big enough or filled with A-list candidates that could actually beat Daines in a Presidential year. Bullock is definitely our best bet against Daines, and his Senate candidacy would help Democrats in the House race and the Governor's race.
Thom Tillis: Everyone seems to think that Maine is more competitive than North Carolina, which is completely ridiculous. North Carolina is trending Democratic, albeit very slowly, and has a popular Democratic Governor who will be at the top of the ticket in 2020. Tillis isn't really an Unbeatable Titan(unless he still has the beard in 2020) and I think the Democratic bench is very strong there too. Trump is going to do worse in every swing state in 2020 unless something drastically changes and North Carolina will likely be closer on the Presidential level, though I think Trump still wins, but that will also hurt Tillis and help the Democrat. I think the best Democratic candidate would state Sen. Jeff Jackson.
Chris Sununu: Sununu is probably not running anyway, but there's no way in hell that he's beating one of the most popular senators in the country. Shaheen has a strong brand in New Hampshire and is very likable too. SI have family in New Hampshire and they really don't like Sununu and say that if Democrats had just had a better candidate, Sununu would have lost. They see him as inexperienced and not serious enough to be Governor, let alone a Senator. But, he's probably not running anyway.
Ruben Gallego: Arguably, Sinema won because she ran a moderate campaign in a state that's still pretty conservative and against a candidate that had to tack right to win a late-in-the-year primary. Gallego is just too liberal to win statewide and I think nominating him would effectively give the seat to the GOP. I like him as a politician, but I think he's just too liberal to carve the same path that Sinema did in order to win. The best candidate for this seat is probably Greg Stanton, who would basically be pulling a Jacky Rosen. He's much more moderate and would do well in Maricopa County.
Underrated
David Perdue: Perdue is a likable guy and has a strong personal brand in the state, while also having the advantage of the last name Perdue. Sorry, but Stacey Abrams is not our best candidate. She just lost a statewide office to a TERRIBLE candidate and people aren't going to want to vote for a loser so soon after her loss. I love Stacey Abrams and I hope she runs for Governor in 2022 or even Congress in 2020, but she would not win if she runs for Senate. Other than Abrams, Ossoff would also not do well. And I don't know a lot about Teresa Tomlinson, the Mayor of Columbus. This race will be competitive but it starts out at Lean R for me.
Doug Jones: Jones is really popular in Alabama and is very likable and respected in many political circles in the state. He's definietly the underdog but this race is not over, especially if the GOP nominates a Roy Moore-esque candidate. Jones is moderate, common sense, and is very good at retail politics. Don't count him out.
Susan Collins: While the Kavanaugh vote hurt her, it will not be a major issue in 2020 and Collins is still incredibly popular in Maine. Also, if Pingree runs it'll be a do-over from her last failed Senate bid, and do-over bids rarely go better than the first. Collins is a moderate and actually a very good fit for the state, so if she runs for reelection she's probably pretty safe. But, if Collins retires, this'll be a pretty easy pickup for Dems.   
 

I can promise you Doug Jones isn’t very popular in Alabama anymore.

I mean, you'd probably know better than I do the mood in Alabama but his approval rating in October was at 43% with a 30% disapproval, which is pretty good for a Democrat from Alabama.

His Kavanauagh vote hurt him. His Republican opponent, no matter who it is, won’t let him live it down.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Overrated Joni Ernst, she isnt the unbeatable titan Grassley and Chris Sununu

Underrated Jean Shaheen-Chris Sununu isnt gonna beat Shaheen should he leave governorship. Dem gov for gov will carry Shaheen across finish line

[MT Treasurer]

Overrated:

- Steve Daines - He's not a weak incumbent or anything like that and is definitely a stronger candidate than Rosendale (I'd say he's about on par with Dennis Rehberg), but he's not the unbeatable titan some make him out to be (sort of like how Ohio leans Republican, but it's not the diehard bastion of Trumpist Republicanism that the CW now makes it out to be*).  While Bullock is definitely the best Democratic candidate here, I don't think we need him to beat Daines (it'd definitely help though).  The Democrats seem to have a decent bench here and a very strong state party, but obviously Bullock would be ideal.  I really hope Bullock doesn't think he can win the Presidential primaries because...well...lol. 

Underrated:

- Various Montana Democrats not named "Steve Bullock" - See the section about Steve Daines

Yes, I strongly agree with this. At first I thought the "unbeatable Titanium Tester" thing was just because he’s a Democrat who people adore even more than your average Democrat because he’s a fairly liberal "populist" from a "Republican WWC state" or whatever, but now it’s pretty clear that people just tend to (dramatically) overrate Montana incumbents in general, regardless of party affiliation (well, unless their name is Greg Gianforte, perhaps ). Tester is a stronger incumbent than Daines for sure, but they both got really lucky in 2014 and 2018, respectively, and they’re by no means unbeatable.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Thanks for this thread.