The Economist: Forecasting the US elections

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1271018342296494080

[Skye]

Model has:

83% Biden win
EC: Biden wins 331-207
National PV: Biden 53.8%, Trump 46.2%

AZ: Biden +2
FL: Biden +2
MI: Biden +6
NC: Biden +1
PA: Biden +4
WI: Biden +5

[Ferguson97]

Florida is lean Dem but Arizona is a tossup?

[redjohn]

Florida is lean Dem but Arizona is a tossup?

Agreed, that seems wrong. Glancing at the polls alone, FL and AZ's averages are literally the same (Biden+3.4). If anything, the trends from the past few elections would put AZ as more likely to flip than FL. AZ flipped a seat to Dems the last cycle, while FL flipped an INCUMBENT Dem's seat...

[Gustaf]

Weird that they have PA as the tipping point state. Seems unlikely to me.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Weird that they have PA as the tipping point state. Seems unlikely to me.

Probably because Biden has a slightly larger lead in Wisconsin than he does in Pennsylvania.

[Woody]

*yawn* have heard this before. Just wait when we get to November.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's their writeup on the methodology: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/how-this-works.  Long but interesting.

[ON Progressive]

Why do they have Ohio to the left of Georgia?

[Ferguson97]

Weird that they have PA as the tipping point state. Seems unlikely to me.

Probably because Biden has a slightly larger lead in Wisconsin than he does in Pennsylvania.

That feels intuitively wrong.

[SaneDemocrat]

The election day and the now cast are a little too similar. Biden+10 right now and Biden+7 on election day IMHO.

[wbrocks67]

Weird that they have PA as the tipping point state. Seems unlikely to me.

Probably because Biden has a slightly larger lead in Wisconsin than he does in Pennsylvania.

That feels intuitively wrong.

The lead for PA might be off, though - remember the other week we had those junk polls that had Trump UP in PA but down like 9 in Wisconsin?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

*yawn* have heard this before. Just wait when we get to November.

Trump has a 45 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval a very similar approval rating Obama had 46 percent approve 47 disapproval during the 2010 R takeover of Congress, the trajectory of a Supermajority Senate is winnable,  not just a 50 seat majority Senate. 60 seats in the Senate for Ds is now possible

[Illini Moderate]

*yawn* have heard this before. Just wait when we get to November.

These are predictions and forecasts based on *current* polling and info. No one is saying that this is absolutely certain to be the case in November no matter what. Just saying “wait till November” doesn’t negate the current state of the race, which looks terrible for Trump.

[Old Man Willow]

Those utter trash Change Research polls are making PA seem more competitive than it is. Both their March and May polls have Trump at 50% in PA which no other pollster has indicated. Reputable pollsters like PPP and FOX have not found PA to be farther right than MI and WI this cycle.

[ProudModerate2]

I like the image The Economist used for trump.
It makes him look like the psychotic individual that he is.

[pppolitics]

AZ is a toss-up along with OH?

Come on!

[GeorgiaModerate]

*yawn* have heard this before. Just wait when we get to November.

These are predictions and forecasts based on *current* polling and info. No one is saying that this is absolutely certain to be the case in November no matter what. Just saying “wait till November” doesn’t negate the current state of the race, which looks terrible for Trump.

Actually, at this point the model is almost entirely based on fundamentals.  For more details on the technical nuances, see this thread (well worth a read if you're interested in such things): https://twitter.com/DanRosenheck/status/1271119100962656256.  In particular, this tweet jumps out:

https://twitter.com/DanRosenheck/status/1271119106545266688

[Illini Moderate]

*yawn* have heard this before. Just wait when we get to November.

These are predictions and forecasts based on *current* polling and info. No one is saying that this is absolutely certain to be the case in November no matter what. Just saying “wait till November” doesn’t negate the current state of the race, which looks terrible for Trump.

Actually, at this point the model is almost entirely based on fundamentals.  For more details on the technical nuances, see this thread (well worth a read if you're interested in such things): https://twitter.com/DanRosenheck/status/1271119100962656256.  In particular, this tweet jumps out:

https://twitter.com/DanRosenheck/status/1271119106545266688

Ahhh ok thanks. Will definitely read more into it

[HisGrace]

AZ is a toss-up along with OH?

Come on!

Biden's running way better in Ohio than Clinton did last time and generally has narrow leads there right now. The Dems can still win there with the right kind of candidate.

[McGarnagle]

This map makes the country look like a bag of Wonder Bread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1271291118424997889

[woodley park]

Gosh this gives me 2016 flashbacks. I wish the election was today and not 144 days from now.

[Former President tack50]

Oh great, I guess even more ammo that Republicans and Trump supporters will use if Trump wins reelection. Very nice The Economist.

Especially now it is not the time to claim Trump has only a 15% chance of winning. No matter the polls, as of now it is impossible for him to be below 40-45% chance of winning, it is still June.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oh great, I guess even more ammo that Republicans and Trump supporters will use if Trump wins reelection. Very nice The Economist.

Especially now it is not the time to claim Trump has only a 15% chance of winning. No matter the polls, as of now it is impossible for him to be below 40-45% chance of winning, it is still June.

I've been thinking about this.  The election is far from over, but it's undeniable that Biden has a significant lead at this point and should be considered the favorite.  Anyone who disputes this is simply not looking at the data objectively.  (Note: responses citing subjective factors or feelings will be ignored with prejudice.)

One of the model developers noted in a Twitter analysis thread that if they had a "nowcast" showing the result if the election was today, it would have Biden as a >99% favorite.  Or another way of looking at it: if all conditions (poll numbers, economic factors, etc.) are the same on Nov. 2 as they are today, Biden will be an overwhelming favorite to win.

Obviously, the uncertainty in the outcome is due to the time left during which things can change.  If we call the probability of a Biden win "X", then at this point .5 < X < 1.  As things change (new polls, economic changes, and time passing) X may move up or down.  We can all make guesses for X based on our own intuition and experience, but what the Economist team has attempted to do is quantify the various factors that contribute to uncertainty, and thus to the value of X.  Their methodology might be incorrect on some of these factors, but at least they've made an attempt to be rigorous about it.  So for now, I'm willing to believe their estimate of X is a reasonable picture of the state of the race.  It might be a little off, but I don't think it's very much off.