The Economist: Forecasting the US elections
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Author Topic: The Economist: Forecasting the US elections  (Read 8591 times)
new_patomic
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« Reply #100 on: August 20, 2020, 02:03:21 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on August 20, 2020, 02:01:31 PM
Quote from: new_patomic on August 20, 2020, 01:58:09 PM


The world's most statistically petty drama may finally be coming to a close.

Live view of Nate Silver's compound:



Nate Silver: No I will not 'take this offline' we will have this discussion over twitter!

Also Nate Silver: It's obvious you're only interested in winning the twitter argument, goodbye!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #101 on: August 21, 2020, 03:43:35 PM »

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Granite City
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« Reply #102 on: August 22, 2020, 08:42:12 AM »
Quote from: new_patomic on August 20, 2020, 01:58:09 PM


The world's most statistically petty drama may finally be coming to a close.



lol... nope.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #103 on: August 22, 2020, 08:51:40 AM »
He just can’t stop going after him.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #104 on: August 22, 2020, 09:11:18 AM »
Prediction: the 538 and Economist models will gradually converge, and on Election Day will be very similar.
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woodley park
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« Reply #105 on: August 22, 2020, 09:28:58 AM »
Nate Silver is just vexed that G. Elliott Morris made a clearer and cleaner model than 538 did.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #106 on: August 22, 2020, 09:32:21 AM »
Is anyone else shipping Nate Silver and G. Elliot Morris? I know Morris has a wife, but I’ve watched enough romantic dramas during quarantine to know that his wife will be heartbroken in 4 months when Silver and Morris inevitably elope
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #107 on: August 22, 2020, 10:10:53 AM »
Quote from: DTC on August 22, 2020, 09:32:21 AM
Is anyone else shipping Nate Silver and G. Elliot Morris? I know Morris has a wife, but I’ve watched enough romantic dramas during quarantine to know that his wife will be heartbroken in 4 months when Silver and Morris inevitably elope

Morris has a wife? Not that people can't get married earlier, but isn't he like in his early 20s?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #108 on: August 22, 2020, 06:22:27 PM »
Quote from: DTC on August 22, 2020, 09:32:21 AM
Is anyone else shipping Nate Silver and G. Elliot Morris? I know Morris has a wife, but I’ve watched enough romantic dramas during quarantine to know that his wife will be heartbroken in 4 months when Silver and Morris inevitably elope

If the shipping of real-life statisticians becomes a new mainstay for this forum, I think that's going to be my sign to leave for good.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #109 on: September 04, 2020, 11:18:11 AM »
The Economist boots Rasmussen from their polling average:
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #110 on: September 04, 2020, 11:25:34 AM »
Quote from: new_patomic on August 20, 2020, 01:58:09 PM

The world's most statistically petty drama may finally be coming to a close.

Silver comes off as petty and intransigent, while Morris is actually trying to engage. My opinion of Silver has gone down the drain.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #111 on: September 30, 2020, 01:26:13 PM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #112 on: October 02, 2020, 09:31:51 AM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #113 on: October 05, 2020, 07:23:07 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #114 on: October 08, 2020, 08:37:26 PM »


Biden is now at 92%.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #115 on: October 19, 2020, 07:10:28 PM »
The first map here should give the Trump campaign some heartburn:
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #116 on: October 19, 2020, 07:55:21 PM »
Uh, why is Northern Virginia swinging hard Trump? Huh
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #117 on: October 19, 2020, 08:01:09 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 19, 2020, 07:10:28 PM
The first map here should give the Trump campaign some heartburn:




I have no idea what any of this means, is this indicating a huge Dem swing?
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redjohn
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« Reply #118 on: October 19, 2020, 08:02:42 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 19, 2020, 07:55:21 PM
Uh, why is Northern Virginia swinging hard Trump? Huh

It looks to me that they're modeling either a decrease in black voter turnout, or assuming black voters will swing to Trump. Seems pretty unlikely.

Also looks like they're projecting uniform swings to Trump among Hispanics, which we haven't seen evidence for in states like TX+AZ.
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Horus
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« Reply #119 on: October 19, 2020, 10:27:24 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 19, 2020, 07:55:21 PM
Uh, why is Northern Virginia swinging hard Trump? Huh

That's not NOVA that's PG county/Baltimore.

Map seems to be showing a small increase for Trump among black voters but I don't think PG county will see that. It's a suburban, middle/upper class county and also highly educated. If Trump improves with black voters it's more likely to be in places like Detroit, South LA or Baltimore.
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Yoda
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« Reply #120 on: October 19, 2020, 11:44:18 PM »
Quote from: Skye on June 11, 2020, 05:40:59 AM
Model has:

83% Biden win
EC: Biden wins 331-207
National PV: Biden 53.8%, Trump 46.2%

AZ: Biden +2
FL: Biden +2
MI: Biden +6
NC: Biden +1
PA: Biden +4
WI: Biden +5

As of me writing this, their model currently has Biden winning the PV 53.9 to 46.1 for trump. Just kinda funny to me that after 4 months and 9 days of campaigning and hundreds of millions of dollars spent (if not a billion or more), each candidate's projected vote total has shifted by.... 0.1 percent.
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cvparty
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« Reply #121 on: October 20, 2020, 12:11:31 AM »
« Edited: October 20, 2020, 12:15:06 AM by cvparty »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on October 19, 2020, 08:01:09 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 19, 2020, 07:10:28 PM
The first map here should give the Trump campaign some heartburn:




I have no idea what any of this means, is this indicating a huge Dem swing?
yes, circle size corresponds with number of votes for a county, and color saturation is the degree of change in % margin. so the model has the country almost uniformly swinging hard against trump (except black- and hispanic-heavy areas and utah, which apparently will swing toward trump)

the model seems bearish on biden in urban/minority areas and bullish on biden in the white rural south imo
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #122 on: October 20, 2020, 05:08:05 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 19, 2020, 07:10:28 PM
The first map here should give the Trump campaign some heartburn:




To give a definitely-not-scientific-but-still-interesting comparison, here's the swing from 2004-2008:

 

*Blue indicates a Democratic swing, red indicates a Republican swing*
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #123 on: October 27, 2020, 08:30:39 AM »
The model now has Biden's chances of winning the EV at 96%.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #124 on: October 27, 2020, 09:13:28 AM »

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