MI (PPP): Peters 48, James 39
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  MI (PPP): Peters 48, James 39
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Author Topic: MI (PPP): Peters 48, James 39  (Read 1430 times)
ON Progressive
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Junior Chimp
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« on: June 01, 2020, 04:14:15 PM »

https://progressmichigan.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/LE-Newsletter-Issue3.pdf
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2020, 04:15:24 PM »

SN favored James is done
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2020, 04:23:06 PM »

Yeah, I'm not too worried about this race.

Things could change, of course, but Peters is a very solid politician and I expect him to outperform Biden.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2020, 05:07:18 PM »

James <40 in yet another poll
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OKbooma
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« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2020, 05:13:44 PM »

It will take a miracle for James to lose.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2020, 05:33:45 PM »

Lean D. Throw this on the "Peters has a lead of 7-9 points" pile.
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Upstater
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« Reply #6 on: June 01, 2020, 06:20:48 PM »

John James should start writing a concession speech.
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krb08
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« Reply #7 on: June 01, 2020, 06:31:49 PM »

It will take a miracle for James to lose.

...how does a Peters +9 poll tell you that?
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2020, 06:57:52 PM »

Considering his relatively impressive showing in 2018, James struggling to hit 40% at this point really doesn't look good for his prospects.
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Pericles
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« Reply #9 on: June 01, 2020, 07:13:49 PM »

Considering his relatively impressive showing in 2018, James struggling to hit 40% at this point really doesn't look good for his prospects.

James had a pretty late surge in 2018.

That said, I doubt he'll have the same kind of surge in 2020 as he has more name recognition now. But it could still become a close race.
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We Live in Black and White
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« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2020, 07:19:54 PM »

It will take a miracle for James to lose.

...how does a Peters +9 poll tell you that?

Given their avatar color, I suspect that was a typo.
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Skunk
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« Reply #11 on: June 01, 2020, 07:51:05 PM »

It isn't that surprising that James hasn't been able to live up to expectations given McSally's failures in AZ. Turns out running a campaign immediately after losing the race for the other Senate seat isn't a great look. Kinda glad Beto didn't end up running in TX (although I'm sure he would have done better than Hegar).
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #12 on: June 01, 2020, 08:13:56 PM »

This also shows Biden winning MI by 6, so it’s consistent with other polls showing James underperforming Trump/Peters outperforming Biden by three percentage points. It’s still too early to write James' obituary, but he needs not only a more aggressive campaign but also a more Republican-friendly environment in order to win this one, and right now he’s lacking both. Peters isn’t invulnerable, it’s just that no Democratic candidate for Senate in Michigan would be losing under those circumstances.
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Lisa's voting Biden
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« Reply #13 on: June 01, 2020, 09:16:15 PM »

Lean D. Throw this on the "Peters has a lead of 7-9 points" pile.
*Likely D
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: June 01, 2020, 09:51:02 PM »

Peter's and Biden will win MI by 4pts
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WD
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« Reply #15 on: June 01, 2020, 09:58:35 PM »

Lean D. Throw this on the "Peters has a lead of 7-9 points" pile.
*Likely D
*Safe D
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #16 on: June 01, 2020, 09:59:25 PM »

No. There's room for fairly large swings given how wild 2020 has been so far.
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WD
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« Reply #17 on: June 01, 2020, 10:02:30 PM »

No. There's room for fairly large swings given how wild 2020 has been so far.

I was mostly referring to the likely hood. Obviously this will be within single digits, but republican chances here are below 30% at this point.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #18 on: June 01, 2020, 10:11:56 PM »

No. There's room for fairly large swings given how wild 2020 has been so far.

I was mostly referring to the likely hood. Obviously this will be within single digits, but republican chances here are below 30% at this point.

That does not make the seat safe D. PredictIt require that the chance of a flip is <10% to rate a race as "safe"; if I'm not mistaken, Cook (though a meme) has a similar system. I tend to stick to 95% confidence intervals and there is some variation from one person to another, but I've never heard <30% chance = safe for the other party before.
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Xing
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« Reply #19 on: June 01, 2020, 10:53:54 PM »

Peters is favored, but Democrats shouldn’t get cocky about Michigan again. I wouldn’t necessarily assume that a last minute Republican surge will happen again, but since it happened in 2016 and again (to a lesser extent) in 2018, Democrats shouldn’t get too comfortable.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #20 on: June 02, 2020, 12:09:19 AM »

New Poll: Michigan Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-05-30

Summary: D: 48%, R: 39%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #21 on: June 02, 2020, 12:12:58 AM »

More important bit of info from that poll:  13% of Michigan voters are fine with admitting their racism to a stranger over the phone.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #22 on: June 02, 2020, 02:28:11 PM »

The difference between now and 2018 is that Peters started the campaign early and is attacking James this time instead of treating him with kid gloves. I knew a feminist #Resistance type who hates Trump and voted straight ticket D but crossed over and voted for John James “because he sounds like he’s preaching when he talks and he’s everything I want my son to grow up to be!”

Thankfully this time Peters is willing to go negative on him and hit him on health care and the partisan hack that he is instead of letting him run ads portraying himself as some honorable military man who’s ready to serve.
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Horsemask
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« Reply #23 on: June 03, 2020, 06:25:40 PM »

Lean D, but hopefully Peters holds on.
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