Lean D. Throw this on the "Peters has a lead of 7-9 points" pile.
I was mostly referring to the likely hood. Obviously this will be within single digits, but republican chances here are below 30% at this point.
That does not make the seat safe D. PredictIt require that the chance of a flip is <10% to rate a race as "safe"; if I'm not mistaken, Cook (though a meme) has a similar system. I tend to stick to 95% confidence intervals and there is some variation from one person to another, but I've never heard <30% chance = safe for the other party before.
