When will covid deaths in the USA reach 200,000?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares?

When was the last time you cited death tolls for any other illness?

If your relative died from Covid 19, you would care, that's why Trump is losing,Pence said Covid 19 would be over by Memorial day.

I think Trump still cares

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

2021 or never

It just increased another 35k in a little over a month and cases are increasing. How does the death toll drop thus allowing it to not happen in two months with these spikes?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Who cares?

When was the last time you cited death tolls for any other illness?

If your relative died from Covid 19, you would care, that's why Trump is losing,Pence said Covid 19 would be over by Memorial day.

I think Trump still cares

Strawman argument

[7,052,770]

Who cares?

When was the last time you cited death tolls for any other illness?

Like, all the time?

[7,052,770]

2021 or never

It just increased another 35k in a little over a month and cases are increasing. How does the death toll drop thus allowing it to not happen in two months with these spikes?

Yeah, in order to not have 200,000 deaths by 1/1/2021, the death rate for the rest of the year would have to be around 360/day. Even if it doesn't increase at all between now and then (optimistic), it's still currently way higher than that, so it would have to drop a whole lot.

For example, let's be really optimistic and say the death rate is 600/day for July, and be even more optimistic and say that death rate drops by 100 each month, so that for December it's only 100/day. That still gets us to right around 200,000.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

2021 or never

It just increased another 35k in a little over a month and cases are increasing. How does the death toll drop thus allowing it to not happen in two months with these spikes?

Yeah, in order to not have 200,000 deaths by 1/1/2021, the death rate for the rest of the year would have to be around 360/day. Even if it doesn't increase at all between now and then (optimistic), it's still currently way higher than that, so it would have to drop a whole lot.

For example, let's be really optimistic and say the death rate is 600/day for July, and be even more optimistic and say that death rate drops by 100 each month, so that for December it's only 100/day. That still gets us to right around 200,000.

That might be achievable if cases were trending in the right direction...but they're not. They're increasing more than ever.

[Koharu]

Hmm. Looking at the poll, I voted August. I hope I end up wrong, as while things are getting bad, I truly hope they don't get that bad, as that would mean over 1000 deaths a day. As of right now, if I could vote again, I would probably vote October/November.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I previously voted for October. If I were to vote again, I’d probably say September.

[SWE]

Well, I'm sorry if I offended anyone's sense of "taste".  I'm interested in people's answer to the question.  Yes, we should listen to scientists in preference to random people, but I don't see what is wrong with discussing this subject on a discussion board.  Perhaps you could share something you saw from one of these scientists?

These are actual human lives we're talking about. Can you imagine a family having a conversation about "Let's try to guess how much longer Grandma will live"?

This is a political discussion board and, unfortunately, those lives have been politicized. Would you have similar objections to a thread about the human consequences of climate change or military intervention?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares?

When was the last time you cited death tolls for any other illness?

If your relative died from Covid 19, you would care, that's why Trump is losing,Pence said Covid 19 would be over by Memorial day.

I think Trump still cares

Strawman argument

The strawman argument was you actually believed that Trump was gonna win PA. I dont see you going on any of the polls board bragging about how Trump is gonna win PA anymore.  Even Rassy and Fox news have Trump down by 11

[Person Man]

And yet here we are.

[Person Man]

My two guesses are

1)That by July, we will see 20000 new deaths and 500 a day by July 1 and it will be mostly done by August 1.

2) That we will maintain an R of 1through the summer and be at 200000 by September and get hit by a second wave that will get us into Spanish flu levels by this time next year

I was actually right twice. It did fizzle out in a lot of hard hit places and we got to 200k by September 15.

[GP270watch]

We can not reach 200k deaths that would be a catastrophic failure of public policy and personal responsibility.

 Really unimaginable, very poor response by Trump administration and large segments of The American public.

[It’s so Joever]

Crazy Forumlurker and other fellow “chickensh1ts” were right again.

[It’s so Joever]

2021 or never

That’s another 40 kg of crow to eat.

[Edu]

2021 or never

That’s another 40 kg of crow to eat.

The most bizarre thing about that prediction was that he didn't make it back in february or march but...two months ago! Must have been smoking some of the good one