When will covid deaths in the USA reach 200,000?

[Fritz]

How long until the current number doubles?  It only took a couple months to get to 100,000.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm guessing that the US will plateau at around 800-1000 deaths per day until the weather cools off.  At that rate, the 200,000 mark would be reached in late September, perhaps October.

[Figueira]

This thread is in poor taste.

[Fuzzy Bear]

This thread is in poor taste.

Of course it's in poor taste.

Why the preoccupation?  That's a question.  Why is the poster so concerned as to exactly when this "magic number" will happen?

Why, Fritz, are you bringing up this topic?  Why, specifically, is this important?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm not the OP, but I think the question is relevant and not in poor taste.  We are all interested in how far and how fast the disease will spread, both in the U.S. and the world as a whole.  We have seen it take until now to reach 100,000 deaths in the U.S. by "official" count.  If it goes to 200,000 in one month, three months, six months, or never, that tells us different things about how well the virus has been mitigated.  "Never" is of course the ideal outcome.

And no, there's nothing "magic" about the number.  The 100,000th death is not more significant or important than the first, the 127th, the 2,643rd, or any other number.  But there are two factors at work: first, humans are programmed to think of round numbers as milestones.  A business might celebrate its 1,000th or 10,000th customer; it doesn't celebrate the 7,236th.  Most people are interested to see their car reach 100,000 miles; very few care as much about seeing it reach 81,054.  The second factor is that round numbers make it easy to quickly realize how a quantity has changed over time.  It's immediately obvious that something that goes from 100,000 to 150,000 is a 50% increase, from 100,000 to 200,000 is doubling, and so on.  It's a lot less intuitive that (for example) 57,438 to 86,157 is a 50% increase.

[Figueira]

I'm not the OP, but I think the question is relevant and not in poor taste.  We are all interested in how far and how fast the disease will spread, both in the U.S. and the world as a whole.  We have seen it take until now to reach 100,000 deaths in the U.S. by "official" count.  If it goes to 200,000 in one month, three months, six months, or never, that tells us different things about how well the virus has been mitigated.  "Never" is of course the ideal outcome.

And no, there's nothing "magic" about the number.  The 100,000th death is not more significant or important than the first, the 127th, the 2,643rd, or any other number.  But there are two factors at work: first, humans are programmed to think of round numbers as milestones.  A business might celebrate its 1,000th or 10,000th customer; it doesn't celebrate the 7,236th.  Most people are interested to see their car reach 100,000 miles; very few care as much about seeing it reach 81,054.  The second factor is that round numbers make it easy to quickly realize how a quantity has changed over time.  It's immediately obvious that something that goes from 100,000 to 150,000 is a 50% increase, from 100,000 to 200,000 is doubling, and so on.  It's a lot less intuitive that (for example) 57,438 to 86,157 is a 50% increase.

Well yeah, we're interested in it, which is why we should listen to scientists on this subject. Asking random people on Atlas to make guesses (and then bump this thread to see whose guesses were closest) is in poor taste.

[It’s so Joever]

It’s more in poor taste to compare this virus to the flu, but that’s allowed on here, so this is fair game.
Anyways, I think we reach 200,000 by August-October

[Fritz]

Well, I'm sorry if I offended anyone's sense of "taste".  I'm interested in people's answer to the question.  Yes, we should listen to scientists in preference to random people, but I don't see what is wrong with discussing this subject on a discussion board.  Perhaps you could share something you saw from one of these scientists?

Originally, up until a few short weeks ago, the predominant models were saying we would have some 60,000 by August.  Obviously we blew right past that.

[The Dowager Mod]

Well, I'm sorry if I offended anyone's sense of "taste".  I'm interested in people's answer to the question.  Yes, we should listen to scientists in preference to random people, but I don't see what is wrong with discussing this subject on a discussion board.  Perhaps you could share something you saw from one of these scientists?

Originally, up until a few short weeks ago, the predominant models were saying we would have some 60,000 by August.  Obviously we blew right past that.

It's a perfectly fine question to ask.

[PSOL]

I’ll be the optimist and say that it won’t occur until November this year.

[Koharu]

It's going to be really hard to guess as things will be in flux for the next few weeks as states open up more.

[Figueira]

Well, I'm sorry if I offended anyone's sense of "taste".  I'm interested in people's answer to the question.  Yes, we should listen to scientists in preference to random people, but I don't see what is wrong with discussing this subject on a discussion board.  Perhaps you could share something you saw from one of these scientists?

These are actual human lives we're talking about. Can you imagine a family having a conversation about "Let's try to guess how much longer Grandma will live"?

Originally, up until a few short weeks ago, the predominant models were saying we would have some 60,000 by August.  Obviously we blew right past that.

IIRC that was just the IHME model, which has been revised since then.

[GP270watch]

 We can not reach 200k deaths that would be a catastrophic failure of public policy and personal responsibility.

[ProudModerate2]

We can not reach 200k 100K deaths that would be a catastrophic failure of public policy and personal responsibility.

FIFY.

[It’s so Joever]

I don't get satisfaction from counting dead bodies. Are you a psychopath by any chance?

Hey, we wouldn’t have to count bodies if this current administration had a half-decent response (and if our governors weren’t spineless)

[Person Man]

My two guesses are

1)That by July, we will see 20000 new deaths and 500 a day by July 1 and it will be mostly done by August 1.

2) That we will maintain an R of 1through the summer and be at 200000 by September and get hit by a second wave that will get us into Spanish flu levels by this time next year

[President Johnson]

Hopefully never.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Definitely not going to be never.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Definitely not going to be never.

Yeah, I think time took this thread from poor taste to a harsh reality we all need to accept as being inevitable.

[dead0man]

2021 or never

[Torrain]

I think the US will definitely have passed 200,000 deaths by election day, in line with the data obtained by The Economist.

The current death toll has reached 135,000.

It has been 1.2 months since the USA passed 100,000 deaths. There are still over three months until election day, and all indicators suggest a second spike once the autumn/fall arrives, and people begin to spend more time indoors, in crowded spaces.

(Also, it seems truly strange that nearly a quarter of voters in this poll suggest that the US won't pass 200,000 COVID-19 deaths at all. COVID-19 is as likely to disappear as influenza, malaria, and taxation.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is still running ads not accepting the fact Covid 19 is here to stay. He is acting like we are in a 3.5 percent unemployment and many of the Rs on this site, act like it is, saying Daines, Ernst are safe because of the R trend of the state and Daines bipartisanship t fund Post Office, guest what, they voted to acquit Trump whom is corrupted.  Daines came out right after impeachment and defended Trump

[woodley park]

By the end of October. This thread is not in poor taste, but the fake outrage over the thread sure is.

[Lambsbread]

Roughly a week or so before the election.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Who cares?

When was the last time you cited death tolls for any other illness?