Bold Predictions for November (user search)
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  Bold Predictions for November (search mode)
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Author Topic: Bold Predictions for November  (Read 11273 times)
Politics Fan
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Posts: 531


« on: May 25, 2020, 01:45:13 AM »
« edited: May 25, 2020, 01:51:43 AM by Politics Fan »

Campaign
-Roy Cooper becomes Donald Trumps latest twitter target after he blocks the RNC from holding the convention in his state. The move helps rally Republicans against him but Cooper still wins by 6 on Election Day.
-A Trump rally is shutdown by local health authorities after the President ignores social distancing guidelines.
-At least one “semi credible” twitter journalist reports that the DNC is considering forcing Biden to drop out of the race over concerns over his ability to beat Trump. Though nothing comes out of the rumour.
-Joe Biden commits a verbal gaffe on a similar level as Kerry’s famous  "I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it," though unlike with Kerry it won’t cost him that election.
-Jeff Flake publicly endorses Joe Biden  
-At least one potential electoral college elector in a state that has a credible chance of going to their party will publicly threaten not to vote for their parties nominee in the electoral college vote.

Results
-Texas will be listed as too close to call by the networks on election night though will vote for Trump.
-John James will only outperform Trump by less than 1% as both lose the state by around 7%
-Doug Jones just barely cracks 40% as he is defeated overwhelmingly.
-Steve Bullock loses by more than 5% helping prove split ticketing is close to dead.
-No state is within 1%. Wisconsin is the closest at 1.5% as it goes to Biden.
Biden wins 52% with college educated whites while only doing 2% better with non college educated whites than Clinton did.
-Trump cracks 30% and 10% with Hispanics and African Americans respectively.
-One of OK-5/SC-1/NY-22 stays Dem.
-Dems pick up at least two of NY-1/NY-2/NJ-2
-Republicans pick up one seat that isn’t MN-7 that was held by the Dems entering 2018.
-Democrat’s gain NC/AZ/CO/ME while losing AL in the senate.
-Biden loses no Hillary state while picking up MI/WI/PA/NC/FL and AZ.
-At least one Hillary state votes to the right of Michigan.
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Politics Fan
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 531


« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2020, 10:45:58 PM »

Campaign
-Roy Cooper becomes Donald Trumps latest twitter target after he blocks the RNC from holding the convention in his state. The move helps rally Republicans against him but Cooper still wins by 6 on Election Day.
-A Trump rally is shutdown by local health authorities after the President ignores social distancing guidelines.
-At least one “semi credible” twitter journalist reports that the DNC is considering forcing Biden to drop out of the race over concerns over his ability to beat Trump. Though nothing comes out of the rumour.
-Joe Biden commits a verbal gaffe on a similar level as Kerry’s famous  "I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it," though unlike with Kerry it won’t cost him that election.
-Jeff Flake publicly endorses Joe Biden  
-At least one potential electoral college elector in a state that has a credible chance of going to their party will publicly threaten not to vote for their parties nominee in the electoral college vote.

Results
-Texas will be listed as too close to call by the networks on election night though will vote for Trump.
-John James will only outperform Trump by less than 1% as both lose the state by around 7%
-Doug Jones just barely cracks 40% as he is defeated overwhelmingly.
-Steve Bullock loses by more than 5% helping prove split ticketing is close to dead.
-No state is within 1%. Wisconsin is the closest at 1.5% as it goes to Biden.
Biden wins 52% with college educated whites while only doing 2% better with non college educated whites than Clinton did.
-Trump cracks 30% and 10% with Hispanics and African Americans respectively.
-One of OK-5/SC-1/NY-22 stays Dem.
-Dems pick up at least two of NY-1/NY-2/NJ-2
-Republicans pick up one seat that isn’t MN-7 that was held by the Dems entering 2018.
-Democrat’s gain NC/AZ/CO/ME while losing AL in the senate.
-Biden loses no Hillary state while picking up MI/WI/PA/NC/FL and AZ.
-At least one Hillary state votes to the right of Michigan.
If Trump gets 10% AA he isn't losing all those states.
That would only be a 2% increase from 2016 which cancels out his 2% losses with non college educated whites. Trump than loses roughly 3% with college educated whites. If anything I’m bring generous to Trump by not putting GA in Biden’s column.
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