Bold Predictions for November

[Senator-elect Spark]

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

[ProgressiveModerate]

-MT is closer than it was in 2016, like Trump +8
-Trump's EC advantage grows significantly, with a bunch of states voting a few points to the right of the country
-Democrats lose the senate, and partisanship wins out, except in ME
-The house is closer than expected but Ds hold on
-Biden wins FL
-ME swings heavily in either direction
-MI votes to the left of MN, unless Klobs is the VP
-Polling underestimates Biden a bit
-Democrats have dissapointing results in TX
-NV votes simillar to AZ
-Someone dies in a competative house or senate race, causing a flip
-Biden flips NE-2, and it goes to him by a few points
-The October suprise seems bad for Ds and seems to help Trump but doesn't cahnge the outcome
-The economic recovery helps Trump a bit
-On election day, the weather is really crappy somewhere, causing a weird result
-States that didn't get hit as hard by COVID swing to Trump a bit
-NC votes to the right of FL
-No one on this forum will predict the exact outcome correctly

[Ferguson97]

Arizona votes to the left of Wisconsin.

New Hampshire will vote Biden+5 and Minnesota will vote Biden+10.

Most states won't be able to be called on Election Night because of the large amount of mail-in ballots. We probably won't know the winner until a few days after at least.

Biden wins Nebraska CD-2 by 3-4 points. Trump wins Maine CD-2 by less than 3 points.

Montana and North Carolina will be the only split Senate/Presidential tickets. Both will vote D for the Senate, but Trump for President.

Trump wins South Carolina by single digits.

Michigan and PA vote to the left of NPV.

[Ferguson97]

-No one on this forum will predict the exact outcome correctly

I feel like this one is statistically improbable. There's only a handful of realistic maps, and multiple people have probably already predicted the correct one.

[ProgressiveModerate]

-No one on this forum will predict the exact outcome correctly

I feel like this one is statistically improbable. There's only a handful of realistic maps, and multiple people have probably already predicted the correct one.

In 2016 no one got the exact map, and whenever Trump is on the ballot, things are crazy. Right now our consensus prediction has 7 tossup states, and 2^7 = 128, meaning that juts from that alone, already, 128 outcomes are possible

[Ferguson97]

-No one on this forum will predict the exact outcome correctly

I feel like this one is statistically improbable. There's only a handful of realistic maps, and multiple people have probably already predicted the correct one.

In 2016 no one got the exact map, and whenever Trump is on the ballot, things are crazy. Right now our consensus prediction has 7 tossup states, and 2^7 = 128, meaning that juts from that alone, already, 128 outcomes are possible

Yeah, but they're not all equally likely. There's no world in which Democrats win Georgia and Florida but lose Michigan and Pennsylvania this November.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bold predictions is that anything can happen, but the exact map of 2016 isnt likely since Trump only won on the back of Johnson and Amash isnt in the race.

Dems are contesting 50 states and Biden isnt Hilary

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

Nine percent of Iowa votes going to third party candidates - more than 2016! - when there is no third party candidate of significance running definitely qualifies as bold

[7,052,770]

Biden wins comfortably and everyone wonders why people gave Trump a serious shot all the way up to Election Day.

[TrumpBritt24]

- Vermin Supreme, if nominated by the LP, performs better than Johnson/Weld because of his social media meme appeal. His MSM appearances will make him a household name.

- Trump performs better with African Americans than 2016.

- Trump reaches a higher popular vote total than 2016.

- New Hampshire flips Red.

- Pennsylvania votes for Trump more than they did in 2016.

- Evan McMullin/Jeb Bush/Bill Kristol/insert random NeoCon here runs on the SAM ticket and gets embarrassed.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If Trump wins he will win big, if Biden wins he wil win big, the election won't be close either way.

[Ferguson97]

If Trump wins he will win big, if Biden wins he wil win big, the election won't be close either way.

I don't see how Trump expands his 2016 electorate.

[Vern]

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

[Ferguson97]

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

The polls were correct within the margin of error (except for Wisconsin). The pundits and the media incorrectly interpreted the polls.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

The polls were correct within the margin of error (except for Wisconsin). The pundits and the media incorrectly interpreted the polls.

[7,052,770]

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

False.

[MarkD]

If Trump wins he will win big, if Biden wins he wil win big, the election won't be close either way.

I agree, and Biden has this one. My bold prediction, which others have laughed at before in this board, is that this year Trump loses half of the states that he carried in 2016, and does not pick up any Clinton states.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A direct duplicate of a 2016 election is improbable since Trump isnt gonna get Amash to take votes like Johnson did. That's why that R internal trying to make PA lean Trump, isn't relevant, Johnson was the difference in a Trump victory.


Biden wins

[Ferguson97]

If Trump wins he will win big, if Biden wins he wil win big, the election won't be close either way.

I agree, and Biden has this one. My bold prediction, which others have laughed at before in this board, is that this year Trump loses half of the states that he carried in 2016, and does not pick up any Clinton states.

Is that bold? I thought that was the consensus.

[Vern]

Here are my bold predictions:

- Trump improves on WWC voters
- Biden gets Obama level AA turn-out
- Biden falls to get Hispanic voters to turn out


Causing this map to happen:

 

[Ferguson97]

Here are my bold predictions:

- Trump improves on WWC voters
- Biden gets Obama level AA turn-out
- Biden falls to get Hispanic voters to turn out


Causing this map to happen:

 

That's a really hot take

[Vern]

Here are my bold predictions:

- Trump improves on WWC voters
- Biden gets Obama level AA turn-out
- Biden falls to get Hispanic voters to turn out


Causing this map to happen:

 

That's a really hot take

Hey, they asked for BOLD predictions!

[Roll Roons]

Here are my bold predictions:

- Trump improves on WWC voters
- Biden gets Obama level AA turn-out
- Biden falls to get Hispanic voters to turn out


Causing this map to happen:

 

Biden getting Obama-level turnout with blacks should at least flip MI, if not PA.

[progressive85]

Donald Trump narrowly re-elected, but Democrats do great everywhere else.