2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Anyway, here's my attempt at a 5 seat D gerrymander of Minnesota.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::fdc5df0d-36cd-4a5f-a1ed-790b37e4d657

All incumbents live in their seats and get the core of their bases preserved. MN-02, MN-03, MN-04, and MN-05 are Safe D. MN-06 is Biden +4 and trending leftward. Probably 4-4 in 2022 but 3-5 beyond that and all 5 Safe D by the end of the decade.

[Schiff for Senate]

1. "reasonably compact" reminds me of your "fair map" Dane County split. You're not fooling anyone by describing your maps incorrectly (and why are you trying to? This is an internet forum). Call a spade a spade and say that you drew a tendril 4 way-Hennepin split.

This is an obvious pizzamander and isn't compact at all.

No, I know it's not compact on the whole at all. What I meant was, it is comparatively compact using Discovolante's district as a point of reference (shown below). Obviously I can't say any of those 6 seats are really compact at all, but they are most certainly more compact than the map below, and that is what I was talking about (though I can see why it might be confusing/unclear).

(Also, to NC Conservative, regarding the Dane County map - give me the link to the map I called fair, and I will tell you exactly why it is. Don't know which map you're talking about until you do, though, because I believe I've shared multiple maps here with Dane County separated.)

With that said, below is the map I was comparing mine to, and that's why I said it was (comparatively) compact:

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

look on my works, ye mighty, and despair



(this still votes right of the state at large and trends are awful outside of Rochester so this would probably be fairly comfortably GOP-held in practice)

2. Use DRA. No one wants to use a clunkier site that lacks recent data.

I don't care for DRA's layout and much prefer that of Districtr's, even if it lacks a lot of information DRA has. Appreciate the advice/command but at least for the moment, I don't intend to switch to DRA.

No map that splits Dane County is fair. Even if you're aiming for proportionality, it is too clear of a community of interest for a split of it to be anything other than an egregious gerrymander.

Again - which map are you discussing? You give me the link of the so-called gerrymander, and I'll give you an explanation as to why splitting Dane County is justified.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

1. "reasonably compact" reminds me of your "fair map" Dane County split. You're not fooling anyone by describing your maps incorrectly (and why are you trying to? This is an internet forum). Call a spade a spade and say that you drew a tendril 4 way-Hennepin split.

This is an obvious pizzamander and isn't compact at all.

No, I know it's not compact on the whole at all. What I meant was, it is comparatively compact using Discovolante's district as a point of reference (shown below). Obviously I can't say any of those 6 seats are really compact at all, but they are most certainly more compact than the map below, and that is what I was talking about (though I can see why it might be confusing/unclear).

(Also, to NC Conservative, regarding the Dane County map - give me the link to the map I called fair, and I will tell you exactly why it is. Don't know which map you're talking about until you do, though, because I believe I've shared multiple maps here with Dane County separated.)

With that said, below is the map I was comparing mine to, and that's why I said it was (comparatively) compact:

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

look on my works, ye mighty, and despair



(this still votes right of the state at large and trends are awful outside of Rochester so this would probably be fairly comfortably GOP-held in practice)

2. Use DRA. No one wants to use a clunkier site that lacks recent data.

I don't care for DRA's layout and much prefer that of Districtr's, even if it lacks a lot of information DRA has. Appreciate the advice/command but at least for the moment, I don't intend to switch to DRA.

No map that splits Dane County is fair. Even if you're aiming for proportionality, it is too clear of a community of interest for a split of it to be anything other than an egregious gerrymander.

Again - which map are you discussing? You give me the link of the so-called gerrymander, and I'll give you an explanation as to why splitting Dane County is justified.

No map that splits Dane County is fair. Pick any map as you like -- no map that splits Dane is fair.

[Sol]

1. "reasonably compact" reminds me of your "fair map" Dane County split. You're not fooling anyone by describing your maps incorrectly (and why are you trying to? This is an internet forum). Call a spade a spade and say that you drew a tendril 4 way-Hennepin split.

This is an obvious pizzamander and isn't compact at all.

No, I know it's not compact on the whole at all. What I meant was, it is comparatively compact using Discovolante's district as a point of reference (shown below). Obviously I can't say any of those 6 seats are really compact at all, but they are most certainly more compact than the map below, and that is what I was talking about (though I can see why it might be confusing/unclear).

(Also, to NC Conservative, regarding the Dane County map - give me the link to the map I called fair, and I will tell you exactly why it is. Don't know which map you're talking about until you do, though, because I believe I've shared multiple maps here with Dane County separated.)

With that said, below is the map I was comparing mine to, and that's why I said it was (comparatively) compact:

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

look on my works, ye mighty, and despair



(this still votes right of the state at large and trends are awful outside of Rochester so this would probably be fairly comfortably GOP-held in practice)

2. Use DRA. No one wants to use a clunkier site that lacks recent data.

I don't care for DRA's layout and much prefer that of Districtr's, even if it lacks a lot of information DRA has. Appreciate the advice/command but at least for the moment, I don't intend to switch to DRA.

No map that splits Dane County is fair. Even if you're aiming for proportionality, it is too clear of a community of interest for a split of it to be anything other than an egregious gerrymander.

Again - which map are you discussing? You give me the link of the so-called gerrymander, and I'll give you an explanation as to why splitting Dane County is justified.

No map that splits Dane County is fair. Pick any map as you like -- no map that splits Dane is fair.

I could maybe see some sort of argument if a split of one of the counties in the area was necessary for population equality, but yeah, there's basically zero region to do a split that goes deeper than one or two towns. Cracking Dane County to counteract Democratic packing is a scandalous gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

1. "reasonably compact" reminds me of your "fair map" Dane County split. You're not fooling anyone by describing your maps incorrectly (and why are you trying to? This is an internet forum). Call a spade a spade and say that you drew a tendril 4 way-Hennepin split.

This is an obvious pizzamander and isn't compact at all.

No, I know it's not compact on the whole at all. What I meant was, it is comparatively compact using Discovolante's district as a point of reference (shown below). Obviously I can't say any of those 6 seats are really compact at all, but they are most certainly more compact than the map below, and that is what I was talking about (though I can see why it might be confusing/unclear).

(Also, to NC Conservative, regarding the Dane County map - give me the link to the map I called fair, and I will tell you exactly why it is. Don't know which map you're talking about until you do, though, because I believe I've shared multiple maps here with Dane County separated.)

With that said, below is the map I was comparing mine to, and that's why I said it was (comparatively) compact:

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

look on my works, ye mighty, and despair



(this still votes right of the state at large and trends are awful outside of Rochester so this would probably be fairly comfortably GOP-held in practice)

2. Use DRA. No one wants to use a clunkier site that lacks recent data.

I don't care for DRA's layout and much prefer that of Districtr's, even if it lacks a lot of information DRA has. Appreciate the advice/command but at least for the moment, I don't intend to switch to DRA.

No map that splits Dane County is fair. Even if you're aiming for proportionality, it is too clear of a community of interest for a split of it to be anything other than an egregious gerrymander.

Again - which map are you discussing? You give me the link of the so-called gerrymander, and I'll give you an explanation as to why splitting Dane County is justified.

No map that splits Dane County is fair. Pick any map as you like -- no map that splits Dane is fair.

I could maybe see some sort of argument if a split of one of the counties in the area was necessary for population equality, but yeah, there's basically zero region to do a split that goes deeper than one or two towns. Cracking Dane County to counteract Democratic packing is a scandalous gerrymander.

I wouldn't call it scandalous as long as it doesn't go into the inner ring

 

Green is probably what would be Madison city limits if it annexed atleast the most inner ring areas.
Say some split like this



It doesn't really make too much sense as it would just make more sense to lop of the furthest end  of Green county so it still is a Dem Favorable map but it isn't really egregious. Splitting the clearly urbanized inner part of Dane is unacceptable as that is such a clear COI. The areas split of Western Dane are obviously more related to Madison than the southern parts of Green but the line is a bit more blurred than splitting Madison in 2 as that's really the only way to get any split of the core Madison area. Obviously most splits of Dane when done for partisan fairness are clearly the latter than just merely the former..

[Tekken_Guy]

Anyway, here's my attempt at a 5 seat D gerrymander of Minnesota.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::fdc5df0d-36cd-4a5f-a1ed-790b37e4d657

All incumbents live in their seats and get the core of their bases preserved. MN-02, MN-03, MN-04, and MN-05 are Safe D. MN-06 is Biden +4 and trending leftward. Probably 4-4 in 2022 but 3-5 beyond that and all 5 Safe D by the end of the decade.

Given Hagedorn's recent health issues, I'd assume he retires here and Emmer gets the 1st to himself.

Tyler Kistner probably runs in the 6th in this scenario and likely wins in 2022.

Also that MN-02 is only Biden+10, so it's probably not Safe D in 2022, though it's hard to see a Republican holding on here in 2024.

[Minnesota Mike]

What is with all the discussion about Dane county and Wisconsin? There is a different thread for that. Also maps with crazy looking districts are just not going to happen with the map drawn by judges so what is the point of posting them? Oh, and get off my lawn.

[Stuart98]

Fair highly competitive MN map

[Gass3268]

1. "reasonably compact" reminds me of your "fair map" Dane County split. You're not fooling anyone by describing your maps incorrectly (and why are you trying to? This is an internet forum). Call a spade a spade and say that you drew a tendril 4 way-Hennepin split.

This is an obvious pizzamander and isn't compact at all.

No, I know it's not compact on the whole at all. What I meant was, it is comparatively compact using Discovolante's district as a point of reference (shown below). Obviously I can't say any of those 6 seats are really compact at all, but they are most certainly more compact than the map below, and that is what I was talking about (though I can see why it might be confusing/unclear).

(Also, to NC Conservative, regarding the Dane County map - give me the link to the map I called fair, and I will tell you exactly why it is. Don't know which map you're talking about until you do, though, because I believe I've shared multiple maps here with Dane County separated.)

With that said, below is the map I was comparing mine to, and that's why I said it was (comparatively) compact:

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

look on my works, ye mighty, and despair



(this still votes right of the state at large and trends are awful outside of Rochester so this would probably be fairly comfortably GOP-held in practice)

2. Use DRA. No one wants to use a clunkier site that lacks recent data.

I don't care for DRA's layout and much prefer that of Districtr's, even if it lacks a lot of information DRA has. Appreciate the advice/command but at least for the moment, I don't intend to switch to DRA.

No map that splits Dane County is fair. Even if you're aiming for proportionality, it is too clear of a community of interest for a split of it to be anything other than an egregious gerrymander.

Again - which map are you discussing? You give me the link of the so-called gerrymander, and I'll give you an explanation as to why splitting Dane County is justified.

No map that splits Dane County is fair. Pick any map as you like -- no map that splits Dane is fair.

I could maybe see some sort of argument if a split of one of the counties in the area was necessary for population equality, but yeah, there's basically zero region to do a split that goes deeper than one or two towns. Cracking Dane County to counteract Democratic packing is a scandalous gerrymander.

I wouldn't call it scandalous as long as it doesn't go into the inner ring

 

Green is probably what would be Madison city limits if it annexed atleast the most inner ring areas.
Say some split like this



It doesn't really make too much sense as it would just make more sense to lop of the furthest end  of Green county so it still is a Dem Favorable map but it isn't really egregious. Splitting the clearly urbanized inner part of Dane is unacceptable as that is such a clear COI. The areas split of Western Dane are obviously more related to Madison than the southern parts of Green but the line is a bit more blurred than splitting Madison in 2 as that's really the only way to get any split of the core Madison area. Obviously most splits of Dane when done for partisan fairness are clearly the latter than just merely the former..

Why did you cut my hometown in half?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Court will unveil the new maps tomorrow (February 15) at 12 PM central.

Check here at that time: https://www.mncourts.gov/2021RedistrictingPanel

The page is down lol

[Minnesota Mike]

MN Congressional maps

https://www.mncourts.gov/mncourtsgov/media/High-Profile-Cases/A21-0243%202021%20Redistricting/Appendix-A-Congressional-Maps.pdf

[BoiseBoy]

Map is out: https://www.mncourts.gov/mncourtsgov/media/High-Profile-Cases/A21-0243%202021%20Redistricting/Appendix-A-Congressional-Maps.pdf

[Brittain33]

Well, that was boring.

[Antonio the Sixth]

WTF? None of these links are working for me.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Basically least change. Glad MN-02 is slightly bluer and MN-06 seems like it could become competitive eventually

[Roll Roons]

What's the partisanship of MN-02?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

MN-06 no longer borders Wisconsin. A sign of the population growth in the outer MSP metro.

[lfromnj]

Dems got the short end of the stick "relatively" I guess .  They decided to push MN06 further into the metro rather than MN01/MN02. Both MN02/MN01 still got a bit more blue each but Dems may have wanted a bit more.

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1493647538716483586

Good job by the court for dealing with the tricky St Clouds area.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What's the partisanship of MN-02?

Looks about Biden + 7.5ish

[ProgressiveModerate]

Median seat still voted Trump in 2020 L

[lfromnj]

Median seat still voted Trump in 2020 L

Yeah as I said I expected the median seat to be a Biden +1 to 2 seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's the partisanship of MN-02?

Looks about Biden + 7.5ish

That should make Angie Craig reasonably secure.

[lfromnj]

What's the partisanship of MN-02?

Looks about Biden + 7.5ish

That should make Angie Craig reasonably secure.

Its 7.2 from 6.9.

[kwabbit]

MN-02 seems like it would be an easy flip for the GOP. Biden +7.2, but Craig underperformed Biden significantly, as did other MSP suburban Democrats. In a wave environment, that's tossup at minimum.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's the partisanship of MN-02?

Looks about Biden + 7.5ish

That should make Angie Craig reasonably secure.

Its 7.2 from 6.9.

Ah, so not as much of a change as I expected from just the top-line.