Oregon 4th district will flip R

[NOVA Green]

Part VI: Linn County 3.0--- Albany Oregon Part II:

The first part of the Albany Series essentially summarized the following:

1.) PRES % by Party 2008-2016 (Plus 1992 for Bonus Points)
2.) 2012> 2018 House Raw Vote + '12 and '16 PRES % Chart
3.) 2012> 2018 House % Vote + '12 and '16 PRES % Chart
4.) 2016 GE PRES Albany Vote Share by Precinct Map
5.) 2012> 2018 House % Vote + '12 and '16 PRES % Excel Table
6.) 2018 CD-04 House Albany Precinct % Map
7.) 2016 PRES Albany Precinct % Map
8.) 2016-2018 CD-04 % of Republican Change Precinct Map
9.) 2016-2018 CD-04 House Albany % of Total Vote Change 2016 > 2018

So there's tons of raw data there in various formats and little analysis at this point...

So to follow up on a few items:

1.) In order to flip Albany for the 2020 CD-04 election, which I view as almost a must-win for a Republican House candidate, Skarlatos would have to flip roughly 750 Defazio 2016 / 2018 voters.

2.) This logically would have to be primarily based upon Trump '16 > Defazio '16 voters, or even possibly some Romney '12>Non-Trump '16 / Defazio '12/'16 Voters.

3.) There are definitely some cracks in Defazio's Albany coalition from '12 > '18 in certain precincts, as well as potential opportunities for a Republican house candidate to in theory hit Romney '12 or Trump '16 numbers in other precincts.

4.) Still obviously the unknown out there will be Trump's 2020 performance in Albany (I suspect at minimum 3rd Party Voters will swing heavily DEM and flip the City), which may well impact the % of vote which Skarlatos receives if we start seeing Trump > Biden voters emerge as a significant factor.

Okay--- now let's look at a few additional precinct map compare/contrasts:

1.) 2016 Republican CD-04 % of Total Vote Minus 2016 Republican Presidential % of Vote.



A.) So effectively what we see here is a minimal drop in Republican support between PRES & House % numbers in 2016 in the belt of precincts stretching from the Western side of Downtown Albany all the way to far South Albany (basically everywhere West of Hwy-99 E / Pacific Blvd.

B.) We see a major gap in precincts 84, 105, & 106(basically South of Queens St and between Marion and Geary Streets) where Robinson underperformed Trump by large margins.

C.) Precinct 95 also large gap... it's an odd precinct which straddles both sides of I-5 which includes some working-class neighborhoods on the West Side and relatively newer and wealthier housing developments on the East Side by the Linn County Fairgrounds and Timber Linn Park.

D.) We also see 4-5% Republican PRES vs House gaps in a group of precincts in SE Albany (Pcts 48, 89,102, & 107)  as well as a couple around South and East of Hwy 99E & Pacific Blvd near a large Industrial District (Pcts 91 & 94).

E.) Obviously the Trump '16 vs Robinson '16 % Republican gap should be a target for Skarlatos, depending upon how much he wants to tie his fortunes to Trump vs appealing to swing voters and assuming that Trump '20 voters will faithfully select the Republican box for CD-04.

2.) So what about the Defazio '16 > '18 % change in support by precinct?



A few observations:

A.) We see a slight realignment in a few precincts between Trump '16 % numbers vs PUB '16 House numbers in a handful of precincts. Precincts 89, 95, & 96 all saw a decrease in DEM House % between '16 and '18 of 2-3%.

B.) We see smaller drops in DEM '16>'18 support of 0.8% and 1.5% in precincts 100 and 48 respectively.

C.) We also see Defazio take hits of 0.2% to 0.6% in precincts 102, 94, & 84 in order of magnitude from smallest hits to largest hits.

D.) Meanwhile in the NW Albany DEM strongholds we see gains of 2.0% > 3.1% in Defazio % of Votes.

E.) We also observe Defazio gains of over 2% in precincts 15 and 92 and 1.5% in precinct 106.

F.) Marginal % gains for Defazio elsewhere within Albany of 0.5 % to 1.3%, including a few heavy hitters such as precincts 18 & 93, which collectively accounted for 18% of the Linn County portion of Albany vote share in the 2016 PRES GE.

3.) What was the net swing towards /against Defazio between '16 and '18?

Basically this takes the DEM gain/loss in % from 2016 to 2018 and subtracts the PUB gain /loss in % from 2016 to 2018.



1.) Generally this tends to mirror the data presented in the DEM '16 > '18 map and the PUB '16>'18 map.

2.) We see strong DEM swings in the NW Albany Democratic strongholds, as well as a small neighborhood North of the Heritage Mall.

3.) Decent DEM gains in Precinct # 92, which is relatively populated (8% of City Vote Share) with a number of apt complexes.

4.) A few marginal DEM gains scattered around in South-Central Albany and NE Albany.

5.) Large Republican gains in precinct 95, which effectively closed most of the Trump / Robinson '16 gap.

6.) Significant Republican gains in precinct # 89, which has grown in population with a new housing development. Again, this precinct also significantly narrowed the most of the Trump / Robinson '16 gap.

7.) Also some decent Republican gains in precinct # 96, 94, & 98.

8.) Also Republican gains of 2-3% in smatterings of other precincts scattered throughout the Central and SE part of the City.

4.) Impact of 3rd Party Votes on the 2016 and 2018 Elections?

I would be remiss in covering the CD-04 '16 and '18 elections without examining 3rd Party Votes in both elections. For example in 2016 there were 645 votes for the Green Candidate in Albany CD-04 and in 2018 there were only 368 Green Votes. Meanwhile the Libertarian Votes went from 377 ('16) and only dropped to 318 ('18).



1.) The 3rd Party Write-In ballots are overwhelmingly Bernie Sanders ballots, with a smaller fraction being McMullin ballots.

2.) 3rd Party votes overall appear to have hurt HRC much more than Trump, both in terms of individual precinct data as well as overall City % of PRES votes from '12 > '16.

What did the 3rd Party votes look like by precinct in '16 and '18 for CD-04?





1.) It appears that a strong 3rd Party showing in the 2016 Presidential Election also impacted the CD-04 results in 2016 for US House.

2.) In 2016, this appears to have disproportionately impacted Defazio, with many of these voters returning to the DEM fold for the 2018 CD-04 House Race.

3.) One of the key variables in 2020 will be to what extent do 3rd Party voters (and most specifically Green voters) continue to be a factor.

Will these numbers look like 2018 %, or go lower or higher?

5.) Impact of Turnout Between '16 and '18?

The next obvious question is to what extent did Turnout play a role in the CD-04 election results within the City of Albany between '16 and '18?



1.) So as previously noted precinct 89 saw a decent sized housing development between '16 and '18 which explains the '16 to '18 110% increase in TOT House Votes.

2.) Some of the other precinct results of 100-101% are not as easily explained (Precincts 1, 5, 15, and 106)

Precinct #1 might have seen a few more of the older historic homes(But not on the historical registry) converted into multi-unit "apartments.

Precinct #5 has had a few more affordable housing projects pop up on the Eastern side of the precinct.

Precinct #15, I can't really explain. It's mainly a small sliver of residential housing plus an apartment complex behind the Heritage Mall plus a Mobile Home Park so not a place one would expect to see a net increase in Total Votes.

Precinct #106 is similar and a mixture of apartments and single-family homes, so not quite sure where the new votes are coming from.

*** It is possible that some of the increase in Total Votes are from individuals living with their parents who either were not registered to vote, or not of voting age in 2016 ***

Raw Vote Changes DeFazio & Robinson in Excel format by Precinct:



So--- Looks like I will need to do a 3rd Part of Albany and incorporate some of the demographic data and review results further.

Albany 3.0 Coming to a City Near Atlas / Talk Elections!

[NOVA Green]

Part VII: Linn County 4.0--- Albany Oregon Part III:

Albany Part I:

1.) PRES % by Party 2008-2016 (Plus 1992 for Bonus Points)
2.) 2012> 2018 House Raw Vote + '12 and '16 PRES % Chart
3.) 2012> 2018 House % Vote + '12 and '16 PRES % Chart
4.) 2016 GE PRES Albany Vote Share by Precinct Map
5.) 2012> 2018 House % Vote + '12 and '16 PRES % Excel Table
6.) 2018 CD-04 House Albany Precinct % Map
7.) 2016 PRES Albany Precinct % Map
8.) 2016-2018 CD-04 % of Republican Change Precinct Map
9.) 2016-2018 CD-04 House Albany % of Total Vote Change 2016 > 2018

Albany- Part II

10.) Republican House '16 vs PRES '16
11.) DeFazio House Vote Change 2016 to 2018
12.) CD-04 Net DEM/Pub Swings 2016 >2018
13.) CD-04 3rd Party Votes (PRES '16) and CD-04 '16 and '18
14.) CD-04 Voter Turnout by Precinct CD-04 '16 > '18

Albany- Part III

Cool--- now we got tons more data to work with in terms of voting patterns, swings shifts, and all that cool election geek s**t.

Naturally Political Geography is more than simply just precinct maps of voting numbers and %, but rather a composite of a City where Demographics might start to kick in.... sure not destiny, but anybody serious who doesn't use these tools maybe should be hanging out in Sweet Home, Oregon and hitting the Meth Pipe vs looking at what's really going down in the largest City in Linn County...

1.) Let's start with a map of Median Household Income by Census Tract in Albany OR.



A.) NW Albany- $73.5k/Yr This appears to include most of precinct 1, part of precinct 11, all of precinct 16, most of precinct 96, an upper middle class- neighborhood in NW precinct 18, a so maybe roughly 13-14% of the voting population of Albany.

B.) Far South Albany- MHi $54.8k/Yr -  Precinct 96 excepting parts referenced above, large numbers of residents in apartments, quads, plus a Middle-Class neighborhood to the West. No idea of the Vote Share here, but figures maybe 5-6%?

C.) SE Albany- MHI $ 54.3k /Yr---- Basically includes everything West of I-5, with Geary to the West and Queens to the North....

So looking like precincts 92, 102, 89, 107 are def part of the mix so maybe 22% of the Albany CD-04 Vote Share?

D.) NE / East of I-5.... here obviously we're looking at Precinct 93 and likely over 50% of precinct 95...

E.) The rest of Albany... here we see where the true working-class heroes live....

All joking aside... was the best breakdown I could find to match up with precincts by MHI, so somewhere to start.

2.) Let's start with a map of Post-Secondary Educational Attainment by Census Tract in Albany OR.



A.) So map looks a bit similar to MHI map, however we also observe the post-secondary education % numbers are much closer in most precincts / neighborhoods although we still have that giant belt that runs South of Pacific Blvd, East of Hwy 99-E and West of Geary.

3.) Okay--- can we control for Race / Ethnicity to see if that might help provide further clarity?



A.) So here at least we have Census Block Tract Map numbers for a bit more granularity.

This is a map of the % of Anglos by Block Tract....

Not that Albany doesn't have a small % pop of Asian-Americans and African-Americans, but the vast majority of residents will fit into the Anglo or Latino category...

Again % of Latino Population in Albany does not equal % of Voters, especially in some of these working-class neighborhoods close to schools, but it gives us a reference point.

3.) Okay--- can we control for Age (% of Pop 60+ Yrs) to see if that might help provide further clarity?



A.) Looking at the SE corner of Albany, effectively we are talking about the Republican stronghold of the City.

B.) Part of the reason that the MHI is lower is because of Anglo retirees that are living in 55+ communities, wanna be "mini-mansions" built in the 1990s, but got some extra $$$ coming in from Military Benefits, Union Pensions, and even adding all that up doesn't amount to as much income when they are owning 250k+ Houses, but still set to live through their Golden Years.

3.) Okay--- can we control for Age (% of Pop 18-29 Yrs) to see if that might help provide further clarity?



Looking like I might need to do an Albany 4.0 to summarize, but as I mentioned before any hope that a Republican has to win CD-04 will likely need to roll through Albany, Oregon.... regardless of if North Albany gets shifted to CD-04 from CD-05 after redistricting

Apologies for not wrapping it up tonight, but now working Swing Shift at the Factory bcs of COVID-19 MFG best practices, so not enough bandwidth to look over all the data and think about it right this second....

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1283429084349911041

[MAPZZ]

You guys really think that doughy beardo is hot? Sheesh.


Also: I just spend the weekend in Springfield while visiting my girlfriend's family. If there's a competitive election going on, it's hard to see it from the ground. Did not see a single yard sign for either DeFazio or Skalartos my entire time there, whether inside the Eugene/Springfield area or driving up and down 1-5. Doesn't mean the district won't be close obviously, yard signs don't vote, but it's just my anecdote.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1283429084349911041

Looks like Defazio has 1,578k COH unless I'm reading old news....

https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00007781

Now, most of CD-04 is covered under the Metro Eugene-Springfield Media market, which isn't that expensive to play in.

That being said, Skarlatos is a bit unknown, so will need to spend more $$$ introducing himself to the voters....

He's a bit of a blank slate, so what types of campaign themes and ads to spend $$$ on?

Can't imagine initially going negative on Defazio will play very well in the Summer....

Start with the positive bios, warm fuzzies, military hero, local kid, etc....

At some point he's gotta do a compare/contrast with Defazio to make a case, so which policy themes  might be able to win over the many Obama/Trump Voters not to mention running into steep headwinds within the largest Cities of the Northern Part of CD-04.

[NOVA Green]

Part VIII: Linn County 5.0--- Albany Oregon Part IV:

Time to wrap up Albany....

I know I've been spending a bit more time on this City than some of the others previously covered, but for reasons I mentioned previously, I see little room for Skarlatos to grow in Corvallis and Metro Eugene-Springfield in 2020, so vote gains will have to come from elsewhere.

The gap between Presidential and Congressional Election results in CD-04 in Albany, naturally presents opportunities for the Republican challenger in a way it does not in any of the larger cities covered thus far.

I'll attempt to summarize some of the demographic data with the previous various electoral result views...

Was starting to work on this Friday... was chillin' on the end of my Weekend and drank a few brews and one toke off of the Wizards Pipe and thought maybe I should roll the 2008 numbers....

Obama won +7% nationally in '08 and narrowly won the City of Albany, including the precincts in Albany part of CD-04:

Albany CD-04 Precincts 2008 PRES GE RAW & % of Total Votes (Excluding Undervotes & Overvotes)

Obama: 8,850       (49.3%)           +1.9% D
McCain: 8,498       (47.4%)
Others:    599        (3.3%)
Total Votes: 17,947

How did O'bama perform in 2008 by Precinct in Albany?




Defazio did not face a Republican opponent in 2008, so I'm not going to bother posting the CD-04 results by precinct....

Still if Biden ends up winning by 8% Nationally, at minimum I would suspect that Albany 2020 GE PRES results are at min somewhat equal to 2008 GE PRES at a precinct level as a % of Vote for PRES DEM....

Still 2008 is not 2020, people move around and populations and demographics shift through the weaving sands of time...

Thought it might be interesting to look at a 2016 / 2008 PRES GE Total Vote to see where the Population is moving... (Precinct lines haven't changes in Albany btwn '08 and '18).... Honestly would really need to go back in time to see Albany precinct lines ever changed in recent decades going back to the 1980s....

What was the % of Total Votes for US PRES between '08 and '16 (Helping to isolate POP Growth changes)



Now let's look at the Republican vote for PRES '08 > '16



Time to review some of the regions of Albany (CD-04)---

1.) Northwest Albany (Precincts 1, 11, 16, 96 and a portion of precinct 18)

Demographically we see the highest Median Household Income ($73.5k/Yr) of any part of the Linn County portion of Albany.

We also see the highest rate of educational attainment (51% Post-Secondary Education).

Relatively we see a higher rate of Anglo population than most parts of Albany, with the exception of precinct #11.

Age-Wise it tends to tick a bit older in terms of 60+, but with significant discrepancies between precincts.

It also tends to have a significantly lower % of population aged 18-29 Yrs.

This does not appear to be a part of the City where Skarlatos will significantly outperform Republican House numbers, in fact I would be surprised if he did not under-perform Robinson numbers with a Biden win in Albany.

2.) Southwest Albany (Precinct # 18)

Definitely fits the profile of a Republican PRES flip precinct in '20....

Relatively educated, Middle-Class, & Anglo, where not only has the National Republican brand took major licks in '16, but Defazio was consistently winning by about +5% from '12>'18 (Which the exception of '14)...

Biden wins the precinct in 2020, Defazio at min will hang onto a +5% margin, but more likely a +10% margin....

3.) Downtown > East Albany (North of Pacific)....  Precincts, 3,5,8

MHI only $ 31.9k/Yr

28% with a post-secondary education.

Anglo% runs somewhat low in precinct 03 (71%), jumps up to 86% in precinct 05, bops down to 73% in precinct 08.

% of 60+ runs from 18-23%

% of 18-29 rolls from 10-19%, with the most Republican precinct (Precinct 08) having the small % of Young Voters....

Still difficult to see PUB inroads here... all of these precincts will swing heavily Biden with 3rd Party voters and align with Defazio '18 numbers at a min...

4.) South-Central Albany (Precincts 14,91,84, 105, & 106)

Working-Class basket of Albany, with relatively low MHI, least educated in terms of secondary attainment, some of the lowest % of Anglos within Albany (excepting two decent pop Census Block Tracts), skews much younger than most of Albany when it comes to % of Pop 60+ vs 18-29 Yrs...

3rd Party '16 votes will easily flip precincts 14 & 84 at the PRES Level, and would not be surprised to see precincts 91 & 105 flip DEM for PRES narrowly as well in '20...

Skarlatos might be able to outperform Trump in some precincts, but honestly I suspect it will be difficult to flip the Defazio '18 precincts where he needs them, even if he ends up winning precinct 106...

5.) Southeast Albany--- Precincts 92,102, 89, 107, & 48)

Perhaps Skarlatos best chance to move some % numbers in a decent Trump part of town...

Tons of Senior Voters floating around Trump> Defazio split-voters....

Not totally seeing it, but if some of the retired Seniors floating around there that are pretty comfy $$$ wise, decide that the PRES is doing well on the econ, who knows???

PRES GE candidates have held on consistently well in those precincts from '08 >'16 (With the exception of precinct 92), so is there any reason to suspect that will change significantly in '20?

6.) Northeast Albany (Precincts 93 & 95)

Again room for Republican potential expansion, even at the CD-04 level...

POP growth in precinct 93 however is benefiting the DEMs as a % with a relatively new apartment complex between '08 and '16 changing the traditional demographics...

Enough of Albany for now.... will be moving on elsewhere within Linn County....

[NOVA Green]

Part IX: Linn County 6.0--- Lebanon Oregon Part I:

Now that we've spent quite a bit of time on the largest City within Linn County (Albany), and by my estimation a "must-win" City for a Republican challenger within the current boundaries of OR CD-04, time to take a look at the 2nd largest city: Lebanon.

Lebanon accounted for 12.6% of the Linn County vote share in the 2016 Presidential Election, and as a fairly Republican City is key to racking up Republican vote margins in Linn County to offset Democratic strength in Lane & Benton county party strongholds.

Let's start by looking at the Total Vote for President by Party from 2008 to 2016:



So a few brief observations:

1.) The Total Vote remained relatively flat between 2008 > 2012 and spiked by 1,229 votes between '12 and '16.

2.) This accounted for an astounding 120% increase in Total Votes from the 2012 baseline.

3.) Although theoretically one could attempt to argue this was heavily a result of "hidden Trump" voters, I do not find that theory credible, considering that the total population of the City is estimated to have grown by 12% between '10 and '19.

4.) Most of these voters were likely "New Voters" driven to the City as an "affordable" commute option to Albany & Corvallis as working-class families were increasingly driven out of those two cities housing markets as a result of the rebound of the housing market in this part of Oregon following the gradual recovery in this region from the legacy of the Great Recession.

5.) It is possible that there was increased interest in the 2016 PRES Election, which combined with AVR which complemented overall POP growth to also play a factor in this surge.

6.) Without going into demographics too much yet, it is notable that the % of the TOT POP aged 25-34 accounts for ~15% of the TOT POP, which would be a demographic more likely be be captured by AVR which went into effect Jan 2016.

7.) Regardless, the DEM PRES candidate in 2016 does not appear to have benefited at all from this increased voting population, with HRC having performed 200-350 votes worse than Obama in '08/'12.

8.) It is also clear that with Trump at the helm, Republicans gained dramatically adding 720-840 TVs compared to '08/'12. There is no sugercoating these numbers for Democrats.

9.) Even accounting for slightly over 1,000 voters electing to vote 3rd Party or writing in Bernie Sanders in '16, the +1.7k Trump > HRC raw vote margins demonstrates not only the relative size of Trump's win in '16, but additionally potential Republican vote margin harvesting opportunities in the 2020 CD-04 election.

Now let's look at the same data by % of support for Party in the 2008 to 2016 PRES elections:



1.) What to make of this?

2.) The first thing that stands out immediately is that the Republican % of support for President actually remains remarkably flat from '08 to '16... (52% in '08, 53% in '12, and 54% in '16).

This naturally is perhaps the main silver lining for Democrats.

3.) The flip side is that % support for DEM PRES Candidates slides slightly between '08 and '12 and then craters precipitously in '16 (44% in '08, 42% in '12, and a paltry 31% in '16).

The key question is obviously was the results between '08/'12 and the collapse in '16 simply a rejection of the "Clinton Brand" or a broader rejection of the "Democratic Brand"?

4.) There is a huge difference in raw vote margins between an 11% win vs a 23% PUB win... in this particular case +1k additional PUB vote margins between '12 and '16.

5.) Again 3rd Party Votes will be key to watch here in 2020 (Which accounted for a combined almost 15% of Lebanon's votes).

6.) In 2016 3rd Party PRES votes were (5% Write-In and likely predominately Sanders, 3% Green, and 7% Libertarian).

What did the RAW Vote look like for Lebanon OR CD-04 from 2012 to 2018?



Let's look at it from another format, in this case an Excel Table...



1.) Defazio won Lebanon in 2012 and 2014 by some relatively small vote margins, narrowly lost Lebanon in 2016 by only 38 votes, and then got spanked by a massive 581 votes in 2018.

2.) The jumps between the off year elections shows a +1.1k TVs from '12 to '16 and +1.6k between '14 and '18.

3.) 3rd Party Votes are a relatively small factor in the CD-04 compared to PRES '16 numbers, but obviously Skarlatos will need every +600 to +1250 votes from existing to potential in places like this in 2020.

4.) An obvious concern for a Democratic supporting candidate is that Lebanon OR will run the route of places like Redmond OR or even a few growing places outside of Medford...

A predominately WWC community with a rapidly growing pop where folks are being priced out the "desirable places" and dealing with long commutes for over-priced real estate as even parts of "Downstate Oregon" have increasingly become dominated by the power of the greedy who got screwed over by the Great Recession on Housing and now are recovering all of their lost values while screwing over the renters and those who can no longer afford to live in the "Yuppie" and Highly compensated industries neighborhoods.

Diatribe aside.... (Yes--- NOVA has friends over the Years around that joint).

What did the % Vote look like for Lebanon OR CD-04 from 2012 to 2018?



1.) The stacks between '12 and '14 look relatively consistent and Defazio didn't look like he got hit at all in the '14 Midterm here.

2.) The 2016 Election appears to indicate that Defazio might have gotten hit by the Trump Swings narrowly on the margins, but again as I mentioned in the PRES election 15% of the voters went 3rd Party. (This reinforces my theory again about 3rd Party voters in OR in the '16 GE).

3.) Still there was roughly a +3.0% PUB swing between '14 and '16 in Lebanon.... (Trump Swing effect?).

4.) 2018 US-REP Election is where the DEM's balls & Ovaries should be shivering a bit in CD-04 with Robinson winning Lebanon by +8.2% R in an election in general which favored DEMs in Oregon...

5.) DEM US House Members in CD-04 can't afford to get slaughtered within Republican leaning Cities, especially with mobilization in many proper rural areas...

6.) I'll run a Compare & contrast of PRES '12 & '16 numbers vs CD-04 numbers on the next round, plus throw in a little bit of precinct data for Lebanon as well as a few shakes of demographic data, but trust me, most of the variances are gonna be on the margins.

7.) Key questions still remain for Dems running for US House Elections in places like Lebanon in Downstate Oregon....    Were the 2016 DEM PRES Numbers Temp or Perm?

[NOVA Green]

Part IX: Linn County 6.0--- Lebanon Oregon Part II:

So Lebanon Part I, we've run the following numbers:

1.) PRES Raw Vote by Party '08 > '16
2.) PRES % Vote by Party '08 > '16
3.) CD-04 Raw Vote by Party '12 >'18 Graph
4.) CD-04 Raw Vote by Party '12 >'18 Excel
5.) CD-04 % Vote by Party '12 >'18 Graph

Now let's do a bit of compare/contrast of the RAW PRES Vote numbers in '12 and '16 vs RAW CD-04 Vote numbers....



Clearly quite a few Trump '16 > Defazio '16 cross-over voters, not to mention a ton of 3rd Party voters who didn't back HRC but did vote Defazio...

Let's take a peak at the % numbers and compare and contrast of '12 and '16 in Lebanon..



So Defazio way over-performed Obama '12 and HRC '16....

Generally the Art Robinson was running about 5-6% behind Romney/Trump and Defazio was running 8% better than Obama '12 and a massive +16% higher than HRC '16.

Okay--- time to roll some precinct maps to see if we can observe any interesting patterns (Plus it's Atlas so we like to discuss with maps...   )



Let's look at the 2008 results by precinct for US-PRES in Lebanon:



Let's look at the 2012 results by precinct for US-PRES in Lebanon:



Let's look at the 2016 results by precinct for US-PRES in Lebanon:



Let's look at the 2012 results by precinct in Lebanon for US House:



Let's look at the 2014 results by precinct in Lebanon for US House:



Let's look at the 2016 results by precinct in Lebanon for US House:



Let's look at the 2018 results by precinct in Lebanon for US House:



1.) Defazio got slaughtered in Lebanon in 2018 losing the City by 8.7%, so the obvious next question is to what extent might this have been a result of depressed DEM Turnout vs a Republican realignment where CD-04 PUB numbers in '16 PRES were a leading indicator and the 2018 CD-04 results simply the lagging indicator of a realignment?

2.) In order to address that question naturally we need to do a compare & contrast between '16 & '18 by both Raw Vote Changes in terms of both Total Votes and also of shifts in raw vote numbers by political party.

3.) Naturally this would not necessarily capture population growth changes between '16 and '18 would theoretically could distort individual precinct numbers...

Here is a precinct map of 2018 CD-04 House Total Vote numbers as a % of 2016 CD-04 House Total Vote numbers:



4.) I could definitely look at '16>'18>'20 numbers and see positives and negatives for the CD-04 election race in Lebanon in 2020....

[NOVA Green]

Part IX: Linn County 7.0--- Lebanon Oregon Part III:

Okay--- last stop on Lebanon to start with summarizing a few findings from Part II...

1.) Defazio clearly under-performed significantly in '18 compared to '16 in Lebanon in both RAW Votes, as well as Vote Margins.

2.) Defazio lost (447) votes between those two elections contrasted with a +96 gain for Robinson.

3.) 2018 was also characterized by a decrease in Total Votes overall representing only 94% of the 2016 CD-04 Vote Total.

Still these changes were not uniform by precinct.

Let's look at a table of DEM & PUB changes in vote support between '16 and '18:



1.) So overall we see Defazio support decreasing in all ( precincts, most by pretty significant numbers

2.) We observe Robinson gaining support in 4/8 precincts , and some relatively small drop-offs in 3/4 precincts and a significant drop-off in only 1/8 precincts.

4.) The % drops for Defazio were even starker, losing 15-20% of his '16 vote numbers in those same 4/8 precincts, and 10-14% in 3/8 precincts.

Now since Atlas / TE likes maps.... let's look at the 2018 CD-04 DEM and PUB votes as a % of 2016 TV numbers...



The obvious question is how much of the shift in Lebanon was caused by DEM voters simply not turning out as much to vote in '18 as PUB voters vs Defazio '16 > Robinson '18 voters?

1.) If it was predominately a drop-off in DEM voters in '18, one might well assume that this situation might be rectified in 2020.

2.) If it was predominately Trump voters in Lebanon abandoning Defazio in '18, this naturally creates a bigger potential problem for Defazio in '20, since one would imagine there are other places within CD-04 which share similar characteristics as Lebanon.

3.) There is also a 3rd variable, which I should mention is the potential impact of newer residents moving in and others moving out in after all what is essentially a "bedroom community" where many folks commute out elsewhere for work in exchange for a cheaper cost of housing...

So let's play around with this a little bit...

     A.) Precincts # 37 and # 79 (Inner West and Inner South Lebanon respectively) experienced the highest increase in Republican CD-04 % numbers between '16 and '18. They also saw generally a somewhat lower rate of DEM drop-off between '16 and '18. Additionally, their 2018 Total Votes as a % of 2016 Total Votes was above average (95% and 99% respectively).
 
      i.) This suggests that in precinct # 79 there was an increase in overall RV Pop, combined with a significant swing (Defazio '16 > Robinson '18 voters).

    ii.) Precinct #37 looks like another place where there was a significant Defazio '16 > Robinson '18 swing. In this case it does not appear like "new RVs" played a significant role.

    B.) Precinct # 108 should be another concerning flag for Defazio... Not only is the largest precinct in terms of Total Votes and Lebanon Vote Share (22% '18), but additionally it appears to have a mixture of major DEM Raw vote drop-off, combined with increase in PUB raw vote increase.

       This suggests that there are a mixture of new arrivals, decrease in DEM Turnout (TO), combined with Defazio '16 > Robinson '18 voters. NO way of parsing it, not looking great for Defazio in '20 in this precinct, unless somehow Obama '12 > Trump '16 > Defazio '16 > Robinson '18 voters start coming back home.

    C.) The precincts of North Lebanon and outer East Lebanon stand out here...

Precincts 38, 39 & 41 have the lowest rates of 2018 vs 2016 TOT turnout levels (88-90% range)....

i.) These are also the strongest Defazio precincts in 2014 and 2018 as a % of TV.

ii.) PUB drop-off in precinct #39 was much greater than DEM drop-off.

iii.) Precincts # 38 and #41 looks more like a drop-off in DEM votes vs Defazio '16 > Robinson '18 swings....

So what about demographics--- does that really amount to a hill of beans in a City like Lebanon?

Age: % of POP 60+ Yrs by Census Tract



Race/Ethnicity: % of Anglo POP by Census Tract



Household income is so "broad-banded" where difficult to see those data points...

So to close out Lebanon, definitely major warning signs for Defazio but potentials for 2020 numbers to align closer with '16 numbers.

Next stop Sweet Home and wrapping up a fewer small towns in Linn County.... not sure if I will include rurals or not at the next sweep....

[VAR]

Wow.

In OR-04, House Majority PAC has its first ad attacking Republican Alek Skarlatos, who is challenging Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio in OR-04. The race has largely flown under the radar, but super PAC spending in a district that Hillary Clinton carried by the skin of her teeth makes it worth watching.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-score/2020/10/05/trumps-hospitalization-upends-the-campaign-790807

HMP ad

[Lognog]

Wow.

In OR-04, House Majority PAC has its first ad attacking Republican Alek Skarlatos, who is challenging Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio in OR-04. The race has largely flown under the radar, but super PAC spending in a district that Hillary Clinton carried by the skin of her teeth makes it worth watching.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-score/2020/10/05/trumps-hospitalization-upends-the-campaign-790807

HMP ad

He's a legitimately strong challenger. I still think he'll lose by a lot, but he's certainly building up his own brand right now. When Oregon gets its new seat next cycle, it'll probably be a pretty Republican one where he lives. I think he's win the primary and the general, in a Biden midterm that is

[Tekken_Guy]

Wow.

In OR-04, House Majority PAC has its first ad attacking Republican Alek Skarlatos, who is challenging Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio in OR-04. The race has largely flown under the radar, but super PAC spending in a district that Hillary Clinton carried by the skin of her teeth makes it worth watching.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-score/2020/10/05/trumps-hospitalization-upends-the-campaign-790807

HMP ad

He's a legitimately strong challenger. I still think he'll lose by a lot, but he's certainly building up his own brand right now. When Oregon gets its new seat next cycle, it'll probably be a pretty Republican one where he lives. I think he's win the primary and the general, in a Biden midterm that is

I agree that he's prepping to run in a rural Southwest Oregon seat without Eugene and Corvallis in it.

[Lognog]

Wow.

In OR-04, House Majority PAC has its first ad attacking Republican Alek Skarlatos, who is challenging Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio in OR-04. The race has largely flown under the radar, but super PAC spending in a district that Hillary Clinton carried by the skin of her teeth makes it worth watching.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-score/2020/10/05/trumps-hospitalization-upends-the-campaign-790807

HMP ad

He's a legitimately strong challenger. I still think he'll lose by a lot, but he's certainly building up his own brand right now. When Oregon gets its new seat next cycle, it'll probably be a pretty Republican one where he lives. I think he's win the primary and the general, in a Biden midterm that is

I agree that he's prepping to run in a rural Southwest Oregon seat without Eugene and Corvallis in it.

The big question is can he stick around for 2024

[lfromnj]

It drops Corvallis but picks Ashland which is just as liberal if OR ds decide to keep the map reasonable. Net effect is basically 0 there and it still remains a narrow Clinton district. He still has a challenge ahead of him in a Trump midterm. The New seat should open up in the mid Willamette valley with Corvallis/salem etc and also be pretty close to a swing seat and he isn't from there anyway. His best was the now cancelled redistricting commission getting on ballot and possibly pushing the district to Trump +5 or so.

[RI]

It drops Corvallis but picks Ashland which is just as liberal if OR ds decide to keep the map reasonable. Net effect is basically 0 there and it still remains a narrow Clinton district. He still has a challenge ahead of him in a Trump midterm. The New seat should open up in the mid Willamette valley with Corvallis/salem etc and also be pretty close to a swing seat and he isn't from there anyway. His best was the now cancelled redistricting commission getting on ballot and possibly pushing the district to Trump +5 or so.

Corvallis is three times the size of Ashland.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It drops Corvallis but picks Ashland which is just as liberal if OR ds decide to keep the map reasonable. Net effect is basically 0 there and it still remains a narrow Clinton district. He still has a challenge ahead of him in a Trump midterm. The New seat should open up in the mid Willamette valley with Corvallis/salem etc and also be pretty close to a swing seat and he isn't from there anyway. His best was the now cancelled redistricting commission getting on ballot and possibly pushing the district to Trump +5 or so.

Again we are doing redistricting commissions nationwide when Biden gets in. If we have to pack the court to get this passed we will. We won't be able to gerrymander in IL, MD, MN etc but Republicans won't be able to gerrymander in GA, FL, TX, OH etc

[OBD]

It drops Corvallis but picks Ashland which is just as liberal if OR ds decide to keep the map reasonable. Net effect is basically 0 there and it still remains a narrow Clinton district. He still has a challenge ahead of him in a Trump midterm. The New seat should open up in the mid Willamette valley with Corvallis/salem etc and also be pretty close to a swing seat and he isn't from there anyway. His best was the now cancelled redistricting commission getting on ballot and possibly pushing the district to Trump +5 or so.

Corvallis is three times the size of Ashland.

The 4th is also set to drop Linn County, which basically serves as Corvallis's political antimatter. Assuming that Democrats are at the wheel, the 4th likely expands into Ashland and purpler regions of Medford and should maintain roughly the same partisanship, as lfromnj said.

[lfromnj]

It drops Corvallis but picks Ashland which is just as liberal if OR ds decide to keep the map reasonable. Net effect is basically 0 there and it still remains a narrow Clinton district. He still has a challenge ahead of him in a Trump midterm. The New seat should open up in the mid Willamette valley with Corvallis/salem etc and also be pretty close to a swing seat and he isn't from there anyway. His best was the now cancelled redistricting commission getting on ballot and possibly pushing the district to Trump +5 or so.

Again we are doing redistricting commissions nationwide when Biden gets in. If we have to pack the court to get this passed we will. We won't be able to gerrymander in IL, MD, MN etc but Republicans won't be able to gerrymander in GA, FL, TX, OH etc

Even with a commission its still going to be Clinton +1 as long as the commission is slightly D leaning which I expect it to be as either its federally created the commision which means the Democratic trifecta has initial influence or its state created which means Oregon Ds have influence. Again keeping it Clinton +1 is still logical, reasonably compact and not an extreme gerrymander just pointing out whats going to happen.

[NOVA Green]

I posted it on the OR 2020 thread as well, but Politico is running with a "tight race in CD-04" storyline from a few days ago...

Dem chairman's race tightens as GOP 'hero' pulls in millions
Some Democrats worry that a loss by Rep. Peter Defazio could hurt Joe Biden’s infrastructure plans if he wins the White House....The tight race is a far cry from DeFazio’s usual reelection: The 17-term congressman has faced the same GOP challenger — a proponent of “alt science" who collects urine samples for study — for five elections in a row. DeFazio has beat that opponent, Art Robinson, by double digits every cycle. But this year is different for a host of reasons, including a celebrity GOP candidate who competed on "Dancing with the Stars," starred as himself in a Clint Eastwood-directed film and has become one of Republicans’ only hopes for a pick-up in a terrible year for the party.

DeFazio’s district has also suffered from historic wildfires, forcing thousands to flee. Before that, Eugene saw weeks of racial justice demonstrations — some of which morphed into rioting as Black Lives Matters supporters clashed with counterprotesters.

Another problem for Democrats: Thousands of students at the University of Oregon — who typically cast votes from Eugene — are learning remotely this fall amid the coronavirus pandemic.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/16/defazio-house-transportation-race-tightens-429599

Interesting article, and still not sure I buy the whole "college students learning remotely argument", although I guess in a squeaker it could tilt the scales.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

By the way, I still believe that this will flip. And I'm expecting dems to mostly do very well in the House.

[Roronoa D. Law]

By the way, I still believe that this will flip. And I'm expecting dems to mostly do very well in the House.

Why?

[WD]

By the way, I still believe that this will flip. And I'm expecting dems to mostly do very well in the House.

LMAO this seat isn’t flipping. Don’t know why you think that. A seat Biden will win by mid single digits (more than 2-3) isn’t electing an R to the house, let alone voting out a long time incumbent.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

By the way, I still believe that this will flip. And I'm expecting dems to mostly do very well in the House.

LMAO this seat isn’t flipping. Don’t know why you think that. A seat Biden will win by mid single digits (more than 2-3) isn’t electing an R to the house, let alone voting out a long time incumbent.

My theory is that most people only have an attention span of about 30 seconds for house elections in presidential elections because of all of the news going on. I think Alek will do a great job at attracting attention in those 30 seconds and end up getting a decent amount of crossover votes. I don't think DeFazio is taking his challenge seriously at all.

Being a long term incumbent is not necessarily a good thing. Outsiders are sometimes stronger candidates.

[WD]

By the way, I still believe that this will flip. And I'm expecting dems to mostly do very well in the House.

LMAO this seat isn’t flipping. Don’t know why you think that. A seat Biden will win by mid single digits (more than 2-3) isn’t electing an R to the house, let alone voting out a long time incumbent.

My theory is that most people only have an attention span of about 30 seconds for house elections in presidential elections because of all of the news going on. I think Alek will do a great job at attracting attention in those 30 seconds and end up getting a decent amount of crossover votes. I don't think DeFazio is taking his challenge seriously at all.

Being a long term incumbent is not necessarily a good thing. Outsiders are sometimes stronger candidates.

lmao, I hate to break it to you, but Biden voters in Oregon aren’t splitting their tickets en masse for a Generic Republican just because he “attracts attention” or whatever that means. DeFazio will easily win by 8-10.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

By the way, I still believe that this will flip. And I'm expecting dems to mostly do very well in the House.

LMAO this seat isn’t flipping. Don’t know why you think that. A seat Biden will win by mid single digits (more than 2-3) isn’t electing an R to the house, let alone voting out a long time incumbent.

My theory is that most people only have an attention span of about 30 seconds for house elections in presidential elections because of all of the news going on. I think Alek will do a great job at attracting attention in those 30 seconds and end up getting a decent amount of crossover votes. I don't think DeFazio is taking his challenge seriously at all.

Being a long term incumbent is not necessarily a good thing. Outsiders are sometimes stronger candidates.

lmao, I hate to break it to you, but Biden voters in Oregon aren’t splitting their tickets en masse for a Generic Republican just because he “attracts attention” or whatever that means. DeFazio will easily win by 8-10.

I have a statue of DeFazio that I pray to every night in my house. I derive no pleasure from announcing his imminent demise.