next 5 election predictions?

[Joe Boden]

Im intrested on how trends will effect the next 5 elections

[S019]

Ok, so here's my guess with tickets as a bonus, I'll look like a fool, but whatever

2020:



D: Biden/Harris: 321 EV, 53%
R: Trump/Pence: 217 EV, 46%

2024:



D: Harris/Beshear: 353 EV, 52%
R: Cotton/Scott: 185 EV, 47%

2028:



D: Harris/Beshear: 287 EV, 51%
R: Hawley/Crenshaw: 251 EV, 48%

2032:

D: Beshear/Schatz: ~290 EV, 48%
R: Haley/Young: ~250 EV, 50%

well no EV map, but I think Reps win the PV, but the EC map stays the same as 2028, but NH flips R, hard to state how hard it will be for Reps to win once the AZ/GA/TX goes.

And not going any further since I don't have any maps, and at this point, I think the GOP will try to change its brand, but not sure how...

Of course, we can laugh at this in the future, but trends in the trio of AZ/GA/TX will make it tough for the GOP to win the WH, unless it tries to appeal to voters elsewhere...

[SevenEleven]

Minnesota is not voting for Tom Cotton in 2024. I guess this is why MN was my pick for state that gets the worst takes on the forum. And I don't see Michigan being any less than tilt D in the next decade either

[dw93]

For the Fun of It:

2020:

Joe Biden 334 EV 51% PV
Donald Trump 204 EV 47% PV


2024 (from here on out, I'm just going to declare one party or the other the winner):

Dem. VP ~280 EV, 47%
Rep. Nominee:~258 EV, 45%

2028:

Rep. Nom. ~275 EV, 46.5% PV
Dem. Pres.~260 EV, 47% PV

2032:

Rep. Pres.: ~320 EV, 48% PV
Dem. Nom.: ~218 EV, 46.5% PV

2036:

Dem. Nom.: ~390 EV, ~54% PV
Rep. VP: ~148 EV, ~45% PV

[LAKISYLVANIA]

2020:

Joe Biden / Kamala Harris
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence

[LAKISYLVANIA]

2024:

Andrew Yang
Kamala Harris
Elizabeth Warren

Josh Hawley
Nikki Haley
Mike Pence

General

Nikki Haley / Tom Cotton
Kamala Harris / Tom Wolf
Elon Musk / Justin Amash (independent)
Andrew Yang / Richard Ojeda (independent)

No-one wins a majority in the EV. Democrats in the house have a majority. Republicans have a narrow majority in the senate. Nikki Haley gets confirmed thanks to conservative Democrats in the house, drops Cotton as VP, and appoints Chris Sununu as new vice president. This is the beginning of a new party system, where several Democrats & Republicans leave their party.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

2028: After an economic crisis and severe administration issues, Nikki Haley is forced to resign. Chris Sununu is appointed as president, and appoints Charlie Baker as vice-president. Both decline to run.

Republican Primaries

Mike Pompeo
John Thune
Joni Ernst

New America Primaries

Josh Hawley
Donald Trump Jr.
Ted Cruz
Ron DeSantis

Democratic Primaries

Gavin Newsom
Andrew Cuomo
Henry Cuellar

New Democratic Party primaries

Andrew Yang
Ayanna Pressley
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Mike Pompeo / Elaine Chao (Republican)
Andrew Cuomo / Barbara Bollier (Democratic)
Andrew Yang / Andy Beshear (New Democratic)
Josh Hawley / Ron DeSantis (New America)
Elon Musk / Tulsi Gabbard (Progressive)
Justin Amash / Jacob Hornberger (Libertarian)

No-one wins a majority in the EV. Hawley has a majority in the EV. Democrats & Republicans join forces, and passes a coalition ticket: Cuomo - Newsom with Pompeo as secretary of state. The government however resigned after the disastreous elections where the Democratic - Republican Party got defeated. Josh Hawley is appointed as president with Ron DeSantis as vice-president.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Democratic-Republican primaries

Gavin Newsom
Andrew Cuomo
Mike Pompeo
Charlie Baker

Mike Pompeo has the most delegates, but Gavin Newsom wins most delegates at a contested convention.

New Democratic Party primaries

Andrew Yang

New America primaries

Josh Hawley

Progressive Party primaries

Elon Musk

Gavin Newsom / Charlie Baker (Democratic-Republican)
Andrew Yang / Andy Beshear (New Democratic)
Josh Hawley / Ron DeSantis (New America)
Elon Musk / Tulsi Gabbard (Progressive)
Justin Amash / Jacob Hornberger (Libertarian)

Again, no majority in the EV. Andrew Yang / Andy Beshear are elected as president and vice-president in the house, after the D-R party refuses to support incumbent Hawley, and can't find enough support on their own.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Summary:
2020-2024: Joe Biden (D-DE) - Kamala Harris (D-CA) (Democratic) with Pete Buttigieg as SoS
2024-2026: Nikki Haley (R-SC) / Chris Sununu (R-NH) (Republican) with Howard Schultz as SoS
2026-2028: Chris Sununu (R-NH) / Mike Pompeo (R-KS) (Republican) with Howard Schultz as SoS
2028-2030: Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) / Gavin Newsom (D-CA) (Democratic-Republican) with Mike Pompeo as SoS
2030-2032: Josh Hawley (A-MO) / Ron DeSantis (A-FL) (New America) with Ivanka Trump as SoS
2032-2036: Andrew Yang (N-NY) / Andy Beshear (N-KY) (New Democratic-Progressive) with Elon Musk as SoS

[Nightcore Nationalist]

We already have a thread for this.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;msg=7309870;topic=302196.25;sesc=3faff0b68b1337d49868eb78f96f35cc

2020: Joe Biden defeats President Trump due to a recession that only starts to improve by September 2020.  It's close, but not enough.

2024: President Biden declines to run for a 2nd term as he'd be 82, Vice president Kamala Harris easily wins the nomination and chooses HUD Secretary and former mayor Pete Buttigieg as VP.  As Trump lost, the GOP establishment try to find a safe establishment choice and Pence is dissuaded from running.  Even though Cruz, Paul and Rubio run, Former Ambassador/Governor Nikki Haley is nominated and chooses Rep. Dan Crenshaw as her running mate. 

As GOP enthusiasm is fairly low and the economy is good, Harris/Buttigieg easily win.  Texas is decided by under 0.5%.

2028: A recession hits in 2027 and China has become increasingly aggressive geopolitically over the Biden-Harris administrations, and the Democratic party is split between the neo-Liberals, and the far left, led by Senator Alexandria Occasio-Cortez (who threatens to challenge Harris for the nomination but backs off) .  Anger towards the establishment GOP and China's aggression allows the nationalist-Populist wing to grow strong enough to become the dominant party force, led by Tucker Carlson and Senators Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton.  The GOP also started moving left on economic issues.  Sen. Tom Cotton/Sen. John James easily defeats Harris/Buttigieg.

2032:  Despite intraparty warring in the GOP, President Cotton's first term oversees peace and steady economic growth.  His tough on crime policies and hawkishness are somewhat controversial, however.  The AOC-led wing of the Democratic party becomes the dominant force in the party, and she is an early frontrunner and secures the nomination fairly easily (although former HUD Sec. Buttigieg puts up a strong showing).  Although it's very close, moderate voters are turned off by the GND and give President Cotton a narrow victory.

2036: Cotton's tariff's and threats of nationalization harms the economy, and his approval drops below 40%.  VP John James runs unopposed as most GOPers think the election is a lost cause.  Sec. Buttigieg wins the Dem nomination and selects Senator Occasio-Cortez as VP.  It's a strong ticket and a landslide win.

Bonus: 2040 sees a Hispanic, pro business Rep. shake up the map.

[Agonized-Statism]

2020

President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) ✓

Turnout is depressed in general but with older voters in particular. The results of this election don't have much impact on what comes next.

2024

Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) / Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) ✓
Governor Chris Sununu (R-NH) / Fmr. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS)

The 2020-22 recession enters a slow recovery. Experts proclaim a Sino-American Cold War. Biden's Vice President runs. The Warren Democrats push for Sherrod Brown as the running mate, get brushed aside, and take it like true progressives. In the GOP primaries, old names like Cruz go nowhere. Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott destroy each other, Josh Hawley is unable to expand his base beyond the Midwest. Sununu ekes out a narrow victory and loses the general.

2028

President Kamala Harris (D-CA) / Vice President Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)
Governor Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) / Fmr. Governor Kristi Noem (R-SD) ✓

The economy tanks again. For a few days, war in the South China Sea looks inevitable. Peak oil looks likely in the near future. The Republican wins big with rhetoric similar to Trump only hawkish and stern.

2032

President Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) / Vice President Kristi Noem (R-SD) ✓
Senator Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) / Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)

The Iran War is underway. There's a decent chance this escalates to WWIII, which is conventional until it's nuclear.

[morgankingsley]

I can't even begin to do that, all I will say is Minnesota will surely flip at least once

[Hope For A New Era]

Sure, why not make myself look like a total fool years from now?

Not to be taken seriously.

Starting Assumptions:
Present trends mostly continue to 2030
My belief about a Republican ceiling in Minnesota proves correct, causing the state to take much longer to flip than most expect
Georgia and North Carolina remain extremely inelastic
Age demographics keep Florida Republican, but just barely - it almost flips in virtually every election.

270towin maps because I'm lazy.

2020:
D victory, Arizona saves us from having to watch Wisconsin become the next Florida 2000. Trump throws a huge fit over the mail-in ballots. Several recounts occur, but the results do not substantially change. Wisconsin is never conclusively called, but it ends up not mattering.


2024 (using old electoral vote counts, but shouldn't affect it too much):
D victory by Biden's VP, by a slightly smaller PV margin but with more EVs thanks to different states. If Biden's VP is not progressive herself, she chooses a progressive running mate. This administration is effectively a continuation of the Biden one. Georgia and North Carolina form a pair akin to Indiana and Missouri in 2008, and Texas, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are also extremely close. The Republicans also successfully flip Maine's statewide vote, but struggle to make further advances in New England.


2028 (still using old numbers oops):
An unremarkable Democrat (like, Tim Kaine-level unremarkable) wins, thanks almost entirely to an extremely Dem-favoring map, clinging on to Minnesota and the new inelastic Democratic southern states by tiny margins. If the candidate loses the popular vote, the Republicans immediately do a total 180 on the Electoral College. The Democrats continue to be far too forgiving of Republican hypocrisy and agree to abolish it, and the president is mostly a status quo maintainer, preventing a 2010-style Republican wave.


2032:
No map because no EC. A Republican victory by a comfortable, but not huge, margin. Maybe around 3.5%. After repeated failures running Trumpian candidates, the candidate is moderate, maybe between Hogan and Romney, and regains some suburban territory that the party had previously lost. Though it no longer matters, the Republicans finally narrowly win Minnesota, breaking a streak of 14 consecutive Dem wins in the state and making it officially a swing state, while Democrats have a strong showing in Utah and Montana, heralding possible future flips.

[ShadowRocket]

Skipping maps but my prediction:

2020: Biden victory over Trump

2024: Biden retires after one term and VP Harris or Warren is elected

2028:  President Harris or Warren is reelected

2032: Sitting Democratic VP elected.

2036: GOP finally rebounds post-Trump and whomever the nominee is becomes the first Republican President in 16 years

[LabourJersey]

Also skipping maps:

2020: Biden wins 290-330 electoral voters against Trump

2024: Biden's VP loses to some upstart Republican

2028: Progressive candidate beats the GOP incumbent

2032: Progressive candidate narrowly wins re-election

2036: Some "Post-Trump" Republican wins

[LabourJersey]

I wouldn't call this a "prediction," per se, because obviously I know the likelihood of this being completely accurate is <1%, but for fun,

2020
VP Joe Biden/Mayor Keisha Lance‐Bottoms
Pres. Donald Trump/VP Mike Pence

2024
Gov. Ron DeSantis/SoS Condoleezza Rice
VP Keisha Lance-Botoms/Gov. Jared Polis

2028
Pres. Ron DeSantis/SoS Nikki Haley
Sen. Joseph Kennedy/Sen. Tammy Duckworth

2032
VP Nikki Haley/Sen. Dan Crenshaw
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez/Sen. Ro Khanna

2036
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema/Gov. Stacey Abrams
Pres. Nikki Haley/VP Dan Crenshaw

That's not too implausible but there's no chance Condi Rice would ever be on a GOP ticket.

[Cassandra]

2020: Biden def Trump in a landslide
2024: Trump Jr. def Biden's VP after 4 years of a depression and pandemic
2028: AOC or some other socialist defeats Trump Jr
2032: Two years following a coup, the military candidate "wins" the general election
2036: Military-backed candidate wins reelection

Think outside the box, the old post-war "normal" is over.

[Roll Roons]

2020: Biden def Trump in a landslide
2024: Trump Jr. def Biden's VP after 4 years of a depression and pandemic
2028: AOC or some other socialist defeats Trump Jr
2032: Two years following a coup, the military candidate "wins" the general election
2036: Military-backed candidate wins reelection

Think outside the box, the old post-war "normal" is over.

That sounds horrible.

My guess:
2020: Biden/Harris defeats Trump/Pence
2024: Harris/Bullock defeats Pence/Cotton
2028: DeSantis/Haley defeats Harris/Bullock
2032: DeSantis/Haley defeats AOC/Newsom
2036: Haley/Fitzpatrick defeats a left-wing ticket

Bullock defeats Daines in 2020, AOC is elected Senator in 2028 after Schumer retires, Fitz is elected Senator in 2022.

[LabourJersey]

2020: Biden def Trump in a landslide
2024: Trump Jr. def Biden's VP after 4 years of a depression and pandemic
2028: AOC or some other socialist defeats Trump Jr
2032: Two years following a coup, the military candidate "wins" the general election
2036: Military-backed candidate wins reelection

Think outside the box, the old post-war "normal" is over.

Looks like someone read reagente's timeline too many times

[Cassandra]

2020: Biden def Trump in a landslide
2024: Trump Jr. def Biden's VP after 4 years of a depression and pandemic
2028: AOC or some other socialist defeats Trump Jr
2032: Two years following a coup, the military candidate "wins" the general election
2036: Military-backed candidate wins reelection

Think outside the box, the old post-war "normal" is over.

Looks like someone read reagente's timeline too many times

What's that?

[LabourJersey]

2020: Biden def Trump in a landslide
2024: Trump Jr. def Biden's VP after 4 years of a depression and pandemic
2028: AOC or some other socialist defeats Trump Jr
2032: Two years following a coup, the military candidate "wins" the general election
2036: Military-backed candidate wins reelection

Think outside the box, the old post-war "normal" is over.

Looks like someone read reagente's timeline too many times

What's that?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=361302.0

I was assuming your post was referring to this TL from the What-If forum

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All we know is FL, AZ and TX are becoming more D, its impossible to predict, due to fact, its gonna be much harder for Rs  to duplicate the red wall of 2016 again, due to removing of Confederacy in South

[CookieDamage]

2020: Biden/Harris defeat Trump/Pence
2024: Harris/Cooper defeat Trump Jr./Female GOP Nominee
2028: Harris/Cooper defeat Hawley/Newcomer GOP person
2032: GOP ticket defeats Cooper/Leftie House Member
2036: GOP ticket wins re-elex
2040: AOC ticket defeats GOP ticket

[Roll Roons]

Another possible path:
2020: The race tightens a bit by Election Day, but Biden defeats Trump by a comfortable margin, flipping MI, PA, WI, AZ, FL, NC and at least two of GA, IA and OH. Texas is within 4.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/ErEvm

2024: Biden retires after one term, and his VP (Harris or Duckworth) defeats a Pence/Haley ticket after overseeing the economic recovery. The VP is a white man, possibly Andy Beshear, Gavin Newsom or Joe Kennedy. She gets Biden’s 2020 map minus WI and NC, but wins GA, which follows a similar political trajectory to VA. She does not seriously target IA or OH, and loses TX in a squeaker.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/9mEKw

2028: Harris or Duckworth proves to be pretty popular, and is reelected against Cotton or Hawley. This is when Democrats catch the white whale and finally win TX, along with NC. Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina start to trend D.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/G7E2K

2032: A moderate Republican governor or Senator elected after 2020 becomes the first GOP president since Trump, defeating the incumbent Democratic VP. At least one person on the Republican ticket is a minority or woman. This person is the first Republican presidential candidate to win NH since 2000, CT, DE, IL, ME, NJ, and VT since 1988 and MN since 1972. They also win PA, MI, NC and FL, but lose TX. https://www.270towin.com/maps/krkJ2

2036: The new Republican proves to be popular and successful in office, and is reelected over a leftist Democrat. They win TX, which is now considered a blue-leaning swing state, and do better than expected in NY and MA.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/mLYZw

[Devils30]

Makes a lot of sense. In this scenario the Republican in 2032, 2036 is a lot like Clinton and Eisenhower in terms of being the minority party President. This GOP coalition is also a logical reaction against an AOC wing that by then may win Democratic primaries.