TX-28 primary

[Democratic Hawk]

If I had a dollar for every time jfern said DINO....

Sam , I'd gladly settle for a cent

Dave

[Sam Spade]

Bexar early county results starting to show up in the totals.

[Sarnstrom]

Dave
[/quote]
Out of interest, any one know how D-28 broke in the 2004 Presidential?

Dave
[/quote]
53% for Bush, 47% for Kerry

24% In:

Cuellar   5320    33.1%
Ciro        9696    60.4%
Morales  1051     6.5%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

he's more socially liberal than he is economically liberal. I'd have thought that would have pleased you

Since when have libertarian leaning DINOs pleased me? And actually, he's not really libertarian leaning. He has only 16% Progressive Punch on Family planning.

Chet Edwards (who is in a 69% Bush district) is more liberal.

You don't seem to like populists much either

Dave

I just don't like Bush loving DINOs. This bastard endorsed the worst President ever both times.

Hell, that's more than I would have done. As president's go, Bush is bottom drawer. I've just never thought him up to the job

I still think Cueller is statewide material, though. And, as of now, the House Democratic Caucus seems united on key votes

I'm gonna stop up a while and watch this primary play out. I hope the party doesn't lose a guy who could very well be a viable Senate candidate a few years down the line. I genuinely would like to see Democrats gain ground in southern states; though I certainly don't want them running to the right of the GOP

Dave

Chet Edwards is more liberal than this guy, and he is in a 69% Bush district. Cuellar is a useless Bush supporting DINO. 

While it was a different district, Rodriguez won 71-27 in 2002. Your argument has been destroyed.

My argument is that, one day, Cueller has a fair shot at the Senate because he isn't someone who'd go down in flames with the the 'liberal' tag. Texas is not a liberal state. End of. Him losing this primary could very well scupper that possibility. If Cueller were to run for the Senate and lose, then yes my argument will have been destroyed. I'm just sorry Cueller didn't knock-out Henry Bonilla in CD-23 back in 2002

Out of interest, any one know how D-28 broke in the 2004 Presidential?

Dave

Rodriguez has done a lot better in Texas Congressional general elections that Cuellar has ever.  What part of that don't you understand? Also, we have someone more liberal than Cuellar, Chet Edwards, who manages to survive in a 69% Bush district.

You have not addressed any of my points. It's clear that you would rather have a Bush supporter than a real Democrat.

[Democratic Hawk]

Dave

Out of interest, any one know how D-28 broke in the 2004 Presidential?

Dave
[/quote]
53% for Bush, 47% for Kerry

41% In:

Cuellar   3509    28.4%
Ciro        7928    64.2%
Morales    904      7.3%
[/quote]

Thanks for the 2004 figures

Strewth, there's not many folk vote in primaries (liberal activists perhaps?)

Looking good for Ciro, thus far

Dave

[Soaring Eagle]

I'll be happy no matter who ends up winning. If Rodriguez wins, the Dems get a more liberal Representative in a heavily GOP state like Texas. On the other hand, if Cuellar wins, the Dems will have a strong Senate candidate up their sleeve for 2008 or 2012.

[nini2287]

51% of Precincts Reporting

Rodriguez 56
Cuellar 37
Morales 7

This isn't looking good although I'm not sure which precincts are reporting.

[Sam Spade]

51% of Precincts Reporting

Rodriguez 56
Cuellar 37
Morales 7

This isn't looking good although I'm not sure which precincts are reporting.

Webb County has still reported nothing.  That's the county to watch for.

[Democratic Hawk]

How Hispanic is TX-28?

Dave

[nini2287]

51% of Precincts Reporting

Rodriguez 56
Cuellar 37
Morales 7

This isn't looking good although I'm not sure which precincts are reporting.

Webb County has still reported nothing.  That's the county to watch for.

Kerry carried it 57-43 which makes me think it would be friendly towards Rodriguez.

[Sam Spade]

51% of Precincts Reporting

Rodriguez 56
Cuellar 37
Morales 7

This isn't looking good although I'm not sure which precincts are reporting.

Webb County has still reported nothing.  That's the county to watch for.

Kerry carried it 57-43 which makes me think it would be friendly towards Rodriguez.

Webb County (Laredo area) is Cuellar's home base (along with Zapata County).

He pulled 85% of the vote from there in 2004.

[Sam Spade]

How Hispanic is TX-28?

Dave

Majority-Hispanic.

[nini2287]

51% of Precincts Reporting

Rodriguez 56
Cuellar 37
Morales 7

This isn't looking good although I'm not sure which precincts are reporting.

Webb County has still reported nothing.  That's the county to watch for.

Kerry carried it 57-43 which makes me think it would be friendly towards Rodriguez.

Webb County (Laredo area) is Cuellar's home base (along with Zapata County).

He pulled 85% of the vote from there in 2004.

Ah, I take that back.  What percent of the district is it?

[Democratic Hawk]

51% of Precincts Reporting

Rodriguez 56
Cuellar 37
Morales 7

This isn't looking good although I'm not sure which precincts are reporting.

Webb County has still reported nothing.  That's the county to watch for.

Kerry carried it 57-43 which makes me think it would be friendly towards Rodriguez.

Webb County (Laredo area) is Cuellar's home base (along with Zapata County).

He pulled 85% of the vote from there in 2004.

All being well, he'll get it again. If he holds on, it will be remarkable. He's been heavily targetted, so much so the odds seem stacked against him

Dave

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

51% of Precincts Reporting

Rodriguez 56
Cuellar 37
Morales 7

This isn't looking good although I'm not sure which precincts are reporting.

Webb County has still reported nothing.  That's the county to watch for.

Kerry carried it 57-43 which makes me think it would be friendly towards Rodriguez.

Webb County (Laredo area) is Cuellar's home base (along with Zapata County).

He pulled 85% of the vote from there in 2004.

All being well, he'll get it again. If he holds on, it will be remarkable. He's been heavily targetted, so much so the odds seem stacked against him

Dave

But this was supposed to be "a one day story", and he has the backing of the Club for growth, and of course Republicans. He'd be completely toast if it wasn't for the fact that this is an open primary.

[Democratic Hawk]

Nothing in from Webbe yet. Is Webbe the most populous county?

Dave

[nini2287]

51% of Precincts Reporting

Rodriguez 56
Cuellar 37
Morales 7

This isn't looking good although I'm not sure which precincts are reporting.

Webb County has still reported nothing.  That's the county to watch for.

Kerry carried it 57-43 which makes me think it would be friendly towards Rodriguez.

Webb County (Laredo area) is Cuellar's home base (along with Zapata County).

He pulled 85% of the vote from there in 2004.

All being well, he'll get it again. If he holds on, it will be remarkable. He's been heavily targetted, so much so the odds seem stacked against him

Dave

But this was supposed to be "a one day story", and he has the backing of the Club for growth, and of course Republicans. He'd be completely toast if it wasn't for the fact that this is an open primary.

Well if it weren't an open primary, he probably wouldn't have survived the primary the first time.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Nothing in from Webbe yet. Is Webbe the most populous county?

Dave

Webb has Diebold electronic vote stealing machines.

[jimrtex]

As Texas has open primaries won't Cuellar benefit from the support of Republicans and conservative Independents? 

He could, since there will be no Republican candidate this October. 

I would expect the effect to be minimal, but if does occur, the part of the CD where you would most likely see those type of votes is Guadalupe County, in the Seguin/New Braunfels part of the map.  There are a lot of German Republicans in those areas.

The problem is that the Guadalupe County was voting Republican in the 19th Century.  I don't think that they will cross-over to vote in a Democrat primary.   So far with 18 of 39 precincts in, the 3278 voted GOP, 944 Dem, with about a 55-35-9 Rodriguez-Cuellar-Morales split.

Overall, Rodriguez has about a 3000 vote lead, 57%-36%-7% with 58% of the precincts in, but also a lot of the early voting.  However there is ZIP from Webb County, so it looks pretty good for Cuellar.  If it goes to a runoff, he should win pretty easily since Webb County will come out.

[nini2287]

58% of precincts reporting:

Rodriguez 57
Cuellar 36
Morales 7

Still nothing from Webb.

[Sam Spade]

Nothing in from Webbe yet. Is Webbe the most populous county?

Dave

Bexar County is the most populous part of the CD, I'm pretty sure.  And it's almost done reporting at present (87 precincts out of 102).  Once it gets done, I'll try and compare the numbers to 2004, when Rodriguez won 80% of the county.

We're probably headed for a runoff, but I really can't tell until Webb reports and I look at turnout.

[Democratic Hawk]

Nothing in from Webbe yet. Is Webbe the most populous county?

Dave

Bexar County is the most populous part of the CD, I'm pretty sure.  And it's almost done reporting at present (87 precincts out of 102).  Once it gets done, I'll try and compare the numbers to 2004, when Rodriguez won 80% of the county.

We're probably headed for a runoff, but I really can't tell until Webb reports and I look at turnout.

Thanks . Who would Morales endorse should it make a run-off?

Dave

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Nothing in from Webbe yet. Is Webbe the most populous county?

Dave

Bexar County is the most populous part of the CD, I'm pretty sure.  And it's almost done reporting at present (87 precincts out of 102).  Once it gets done, I'll try and compare the numbers to 2004, when Rodriguez won 80% of the county.

We're probably headed for a runoff, but I really can't tell until Webb reports and I look at turnout.

Thanks . Who would Morales endorse should it make a run-off?

Dave

I'm guessing Rodriguez, like most Democrats have done. Although appearantly he's a joke candidate who doesn't live in the district.

[jimrtex]

How Hispanic is TX-28?

Voting Age (60% Hispanic, 7% Black (mostly in San Antonio), and 32% Anglo).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Damn, the Republicans and DINOs must be mobilized. Cuellar ran much better in Frio and McMullen counties this time then 2004.  Hays county is about the same. Looks like the Republicans will retain this seat. I wonder if this DINO will switch parties.