2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Tekken_Guy]

Final map:

SoCal zoom:


Swings in R/Close districts:
Swings:
1 (LaMalfa): Trump +21.8 -> Trump +19
3 (McClintock): Trump +7.8 -> Trump +1.6
5 (Open, Harder) Trump +15.1 -> Trump +12.3
20 (McCarthy): Trump +30.7 -> Trump +24.9
21 (Nunes, Open): Clinton +21.8 -> Biden +20.4
22 (Valadao): Clinton +16.1 -> Biden +10.8
23 (Obernolte): Trump +14.8 -> Trump +9.8
27 (Garcia): Clinton +9.8 -> Biden +12.4
40 (probably Kim): Trump +4.4 -> Biden +1.7
41 (Calvert): Trump +6.0 -> Trump +1.0
45 (probably Steel): Clinton +13.2 -> Biden +6.1
47 (Porter): Clinton +7.6 -> Biden +11.1
48 (Issa): Trump +19.9 -> Trump +12.3
49 (Levin): Clinton +5.6 -> Biden +11.4

40/41 are definitely big targets going into 2024/2026, and 3 is an absolute sleeper pick with how hard the Sac suburbs and Lake Tahoe areas are shifting. Central Valley isn't great but still plenty blue enough for pickups with good candidates. If only they'd drawn LB into one of the OC districts though, woulda really shifted the balance there.

Can't complain, they had to minimize municipality splits and managed to pack all 11 Rs into 6 safe seats anyway, even if Harder is a sacrificial lamb. Could very well be 47-5 in 2024/2026, possibly even 48-4 in a real good year assuming swings stay constant in the R districts.

Is Porter likely to face an R incumbent in 2022?

[Sestak]

...while Levin is the only Democrat that gets hurt.

I wouldn't really say that. Harder is put in an R+12 district with this map, whereas Levin's seat doesn't really change enough to endanger him IMO (D+12.7 to D+11.4).

Harder is in for a world of hurt. He either chooses to run in this new seat and loses or he tries to primary Costa or McNerney, which will likely be unsuccessful.

Nope harder got massively shored up.
Biden +10.. He still has an obvious CV seat to run in.

I know Stanislaus was split but I thought Harder's home was now in the 5th district. 2/3 of Modesto seem to be in that seat. His congressional office is also in the new 5th.

Fair enough but its an obvious seat for him

Isn’t that seat like 2/3 Hispanic? May not be the easiest thing.

I think Panetta’s new seat (assuming he doesn’t run against Lofgren or Lofgren doesn’t retire to leave him that seat) is also way more Hispanic, but as has been pointed out to me Panetta is Italian and so can fake it if need be.

[Oryxslayer]

...while Levin is the only Democrat that gets hurt.

I wouldn't really say that. Harder is put in an R+12 district with this map, whereas Levin's seat doesn't really change enough to endanger him IMO (D+12.7 to D+11.4).

Harder is in for a world of hurt. He either chooses to run in this new seat and loses or he tries to primary Costa or McNerney, which will likely be unsuccessful.

Nope harder got massively shored up.
Biden +10.. He still has an obvious CV seat to run in.

I know Stanislaus was split but I thought Harder's home was now in the 5th district. 2/3 of Modesto seem to be in that seat. His congressional office is also in the new 5th.

Fair enough but its an obvious seat for him

Isn’t that seat like 2/3 Hispanic? May not be the easiest thing.

I think Panetta’s new seat (assuming he doesn’t run against Lofgren or Lofgren doesn’t retire to leave him that seat) is also way more Hispanic, but as has been pointed out to me Panetta is Italian and so can fake it if need be.

People really need to learn where the the Valley incumbents live - I saw a lot of confusion on twitter yesterday so this isn't a dig at you all. His former seat and Nunes' did swap Partisan leans, reflecting the distribution of ethnic groups in the valley, but doing so also shoves the other incumbents southward.  Harder is basically on the border of the 13th and the 5th whereas Costa is solidly in the new 21st.

Also, a word on demographics. The top two system in any seat with a decently sized opposition basically locks in the incumbents from primary challengers, since the incumbent has enough support to get one slot and the opposition the other. Its the seats >70% for one party where 'primary' fights can occur between same-party groups, since the dominant party has enough voters to divide up between two candidates and still lock out the opposition.



More interesting to me, as far as incumbents go, is Valadao. One issue is the Hanford arm, which comes very close (it actually might) yank him out of the seat. Another issue is the seat got a touch bluer, but much more urban, which was always his weak spot. Also Salas is running. The new 13th though - despite only having some of Valadao's former Fresno county constituents - is just as blue as the old 21st, much more rural, and is going to have a White Democrat in a Hispanic seat.

[Greedo punched first]

Is the Garden Grove district on the latest map CA-39 or CA-48?

[Kamala's side hoe]

Is the Garden Grove district on the latest map CA-39 or CA-48?

CA-45 in CalamityBlue’s screenshots

[Greedo punched first]

Is the Garden Grove district on the latest map CA-39 or CA-48?

CA-45 in CalamityBlue’s screenshots

That is CA-39.

[Sestak]

People really need to learn where the the Valley incumbents live

What did I say that was incorrect on this front? I noted that Harder had to either run in the Republican 5th or the 13th, which is blue leaning but much more Hispanic than the old 10th.

Given the demographic lean combined with how much of the seat is new for him I think there could be a theoretical lane for a Hispanic Dem challenger to beat him into the runoff spot. Sure he gets support as an incumbent but how much is he getting in areas he never represented in the first place?

[Oryxslayer]

People really need to learn where the the Valley incumbents live

What did I say that was incorrect on this front? I noted that Harder had to either run in the Republican 5th or the 13th, which is blue leaning but much more Hispanic than the old 10th.

Given the demographic lean combined with how much of the seat is new for him I think there could be a theoretical lane for a Hispanic Dem challenger to beat him into the runoff spot. Sure he gets support as an incumbent but how much is he getting in areas he never represented in the first place?

That was not a comment on you, it was more the conversation in general and others who I have seen elsewhere. I thought I made this clear.

Incumbency guarantees enough. It's just simple math that has been confirmed by the past ten years of data. In your average uncompetitive seat, you have one serious opposition candidate getting 35-40ish% of the top-two vote. That is one slot down. A 'primary' challenger therefore must top the incumbent on round one to advance. Doing that when the electorate is not a partisan-only affair and has independent voters and others in the mix...it all becomes a heavier lift. On the other hand, this becomes easier to do when there are more of the dominant parties voters in the mix is easier, such as in the old CA-44 and CA-17.

[Sestak]

People really need to learn where the the Valley incumbents live

What did I say that was incorrect on this front? I noted that Harder had to either run in the Republican 5th or the 13th, which is blue leaning but much more Hispanic than the old 10th.

Given the demographic lean combined with how much of the seat is new for him I think there could be a theoretical lane for a Hispanic Dem challenger to beat him into the runoff spot. Sure he gets support as an incumbent but how much is he getting in areas he never represented in the first place?

That was not a comment on you, it was more the conversation in general and others who I have seen elsewhere. I thought I made this clear.

Incumbency guarantees enough. It's just simple math that has been confirmed by the past ten years of data. In your average uncompetitive seat, you have one serious opposition candidate getting 35-40ish% of the top-two vote. That is one slot down. A 'primary' challenger therefore must top the incumbent on round one to advance. Doing that when the electorate is not a partisan-only affair and has independent voters and others in the mix...it all becomes a heavier lift. On the other hand, this becomes easier to do when there are more of the dominant parties voters in the mix is easier, such as in the old CA-44 and CA-17.

Makes sense.

Do you (or anyone else) have a DRA link for the final maps btw?

[Gracile]

People really need to learn where the the Valley incumbents live

What did I say that was incorrect on this front? I noted that Harder had to either run in the Republican 5th or the 13th, which is blue leaning but much more Hispanic than the old 10th.

Given the demographic lean combined with how much of the seat is new for him I think there could be a theoretical lane for a Hispanic Dem challenger to beat him into the runoff spot. Sure he gets support as an incumbent but how much is he getting in areas he never represented in the first place?

That was not a comment on you, it was more the conversation in general and others who I have seen elsewhere. I thought I made this clear.

Incumbency guarantees enough. It's just simple math that has been confirmed by the past ten years of data. In your average uncompetitive seat, you have one serious opposition candidate getting 35-40ish% of the top-two vote. That is one slot down. A 'primary' challenger therefore must top the incumbent on round one to advance. Doing that when the electorate is not a partisan-only affair and has independent voters and others in the mix...it all becomes a heavier lift. On the other hand, this becomes easier to do when there are more of the dominant parties voters in the mix is easier, such as in the old CA-44 and CA-17.

Makes sense.

Do you (or anyone else) have a DRA link for the final maps btw?

It's literally on the top post of the last page.

[Greedo punched first]

Are the new numbers official?

[Sestak]

Actually looking at this now, the incumbent who might have the least obvious choice of where to run is Lofgren. The new 19th district with the Paso Robles tendril seems to take in a decent chunk of the SW part of her seat but doesn't include very much of San Jose proper at all. In fact it might even be a more suitable district for Panetta instead of Lofgren.

If Panetta going 19th that leaves the 18th, which does go directly into downtown San Jose but is also 2/3 Hispanic and may not be the most comfortable for her. On the other hand it may not matter; Lofgren is both well-known in San Jose and also 74 and may not care about having to defend against Dem challengers long-term.

On the other hand, on the off chance that Eshoo (who is 79) were to retire this year the new 16th seat might well become a very enticing option for Lofgren.

I don't think Lofgren is screwed or anything; far from it. But there are definitely multiple different options for her.

[Oryxslayer]

Are the new numbers official?

CA renumbered N-S similar to last cycle. So things change considerably depending on how far north a seat goes.  

[Aurelius]

The new CA-3 (where I live) is hideous. What was the logic there?

[Brittain33]

The new CA-3 (where I live) is hideous. What was the logic there?

Are you familiar with why Inyo and Mono often get grouped with places that aren’t close as the crow flies?

[Frodo]

Final map:

SoCal zoom:


Swings in R/Close districts:
Swings:
1 (LaMalfa): Trump +21.8 -> Trump +19
3 (McClintock): Trump +7.8 -> Trump +1.6
5 (Open, Harder) Trump +15.1 -> Trump +12.3
20 (McCarthy): Trump +30.7 -> Trump +24.9
21 (Nunes, Open): Clinton +21.8 -> Biden +20.4
22 (Valadao): Clinton +16.1 -> Biden +10.8
23 (Obernolte): Trump +14.8 -> Trump +9.8
27 (Garcia): Clinton +9.8 -> Biden +12.4
40 (probably Kim): Trump +4.4 -> Biden +1.7
41 (Calvert): Trump +6.0 -> Trump +1.0
45 (probably Steel): Clinton +13.2 -> Biden +6.1
47 (Porter): Clinton +7.6 -> Biden +11.1
48 (Issa): Trump +19.9 -> Trump +12.3
49 (Levin): Clinton +5.6 -> Biden +11.4

40/41 are definitely big targets going into 2024/2026, and 3 is an absolute sleeper pick with how hard the Sac suburbs and Lake Tahoe areas are shifting. Central Valley isn't great but still plenty blue enough for pickups with good candidates. If only they'd drawn LB into one of the OC districts though, woulda really shifted the balance there.

Can't complain, they had to minimize municipality splits and managed to pack all 11 Rs into 6 safe seats anyway, even if Harder is a sacrificial lamb. Could very well be 47-5 in 2024/2026, possibly even 48-4 in a real good year assuming swings stay constant in the R districts.

This is as good a place as any to post this:

Latinos and Democrats benefit from new California congressional map

A newly approved congressional map for California increases the number of majority-Latino districts in the state and creates more difficult terrain for Republican candidates.

The new map protects 41 Democratic-held seats with districts President Biden would have won by double digits. Five of the 11 current Republican members are shifted into more Democratic territory, setting up California as a potential battleground ahead of a fierce clash for control of Congress. Democrats currently hold a razor-thin U.S. House majority, but Republicans have drawn maps in other states that give them an edge in the 2022 elections.

Latino citizens of voting age make up the majority in 16 districts, up from 13 in the current map, according to an analysis by Paul Mitchell, a redistricting expert who runs the California-based Redistricting Partners, which consults on map drawing. Latinos are 38 percent of California’s population; if all of the 16 newly drawn seats were filled by Latinos, they would make up 30 percent of the California House delegation.

An independent citizens redistricting commission that drew California’s map approved its final lines Monday.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Ugh, District 3 looks awful. I hate how it crosses the mountains and then reaches down and snatches Folsom.

[DrScholl]

CA-3 makes sense if you are trying to keep the skiing areas and Lake Tahoe areas together.

[Nyvin]

Republicans are going to have a hard time keeping CA-3 later on.  Inyo, Mono, and Alpine counties all vote D already,  Truckee and Lake Tahoe areas are both solid D and most of the rest of the district is in Placer County that's trending D.

They'll win it in 2022 but after that it's probably anyone's game.

[H. Ross Peron]

Katie Porter is running in the Biden+11 coastal seat.

Doesn't Michelle Steel live in that district too? I would guess if she does she moves to greener pastures.

CA-45, the Asian plurality, less Democratic district next door, seems like it would be a better fit for Steel if she wanted to move elsewhere.

I assume Young Kim will run in the Yorba Linda seat. right? It is the least Asian of the three competitive OC districts though.

I dont think it particularly matters and it would be irrational for the two Republican incumbents to battle out over the same seat when there is an open seat and Young Kim would have to move to run in either of them.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Looking at the racial composition of the seats, Garamendi, Harder, Swalwell and a few others are now in a much more liberal, ethnic seats. Prime targets for a primary challenge

[Aurelius]

The new CA-3 (where I live) is hideous. What was the logic there?

Are you familiar with why Inyo and Mono often get grouped with places that aren’t close as the crow flies?

Yes. That doesn't justify what they did with Folsom and El Dorado County.

[Skill and Chance]

If Republicans continue improving with the Hispanic vote, couldn't this map have like 20 R's by the end of the decade?

[GALeftist]

If Republicans continue improving with the Hispanic vote, couldn't this map have like 20 R's by the end of the decade?

Did California Hispanics even move that far right? Most of these seats are quite overwhelmingly D so I'd think the trend would have to accelerate quite a bit for there to be a double digit gain. Anyway, if that comes to pass the only real way it could have been prevented is via de facto racial gerrymandering, so whatever.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Republicans continue improving with the Hispanic vote, couldn't this map have like 20 R's by the end of the decade?

That would require the GOP to hold all remotely close suburban seats and start outright winning hispanic communities in urban areas which seems unlikely. Seats like 9, 13, 22 and 25 could fall but beyond that you’re stretching luck. 15 or 16 Rs would be the very max I could see