2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[SevenEleven]

Which pairing of Temecula is better, OC south hills-Temecula Fallbrook, or Hemet-Temecula-Fallbrook? Hemet-Temecula-Fallbrook requires a Corona-OC south hills split, while OC south hills-Temecula-Fallbrook requires a three-way split for one seat and Riverside-only for the other.

Hemet-Temecula-Fallbrook WITHOUT an OC-Corona seat.

I have to do either OC-Corona or OC-Fallbrook-Temecula because I put Irvine in Rouda's district. Is OC-Fallbrook-Temecula still better than OC-Corona?

OC-Corona is less horrible, but you should change what you did with Irvine instead. It isn't worth it.

Irvine isn’t split. What’s wrong with it?

You should split it so you don't have to do OC-Riverside County. That's the one Southern California county pairing that's really never justified.

Is OC-Fallbrook-Temecula worse than OC-Corona?

Yep. Connecting two spread out areas via Camp Pendleton is pretty awkward, and if you start to take in some of Oceanside you won't have much of South OC left to work with. Again, there are alternatives to OC-Riverside. When splitting OC, these are the cuts from best to worst:

1. La Habra/Fullerton/Buena Park/Cypress to SE LA County.
2. San Clemente/San Juan Capistrano to Oceanside
3. Seal Beach/Huntington Beach to Long Beach
4. Fullerton/Brea/Yorba Linda to Puente Hills/Walnut
5. Yorba Linda/Anaheim Hills to Corona

I'm not taking in Oceanside. Is the combination of OC-Corona and Temecula-Fallbrook not nearly as bad as a Riverside-only seat and OC-Temecula-Fallbrook combination?

Don't do this.

[Oryxslayer]

Which of these configurations is better?

In general, I much prefer the second to the first but that Lassen-Gold Country seat hurts.

First is better. Clear minority seats in the bay, avoids the weird backcountry and estuary seats.

[SevenEleven]

I'm going to advocate for Diamond Bar-OC as the best connection here.

The natural population divisions in the SGV, as well as the gateway cities, separate this area from the rest of LA County. You know you have to have an Asian seat (CA-27), which is optimized here. If you don't split the Puente Hills region from the SGV, you end up having to put Pomona in an Inland Empire district with Rancho Cucamonga, which is far from ideal.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Which of these configurations is better?

In general, I much prefer the second to the first but that Lassen-Gold Country seat hurts.

First is better. Clear minority seats in the bay, avoids the weird backcountry and estuary seats.

Just realized I flipped the two in my head as I typed it. Yup. The first is better (particularly in the LA Area), although there are components of the second I prefer (a sane CA-10, not putting Oceanside with East County, I don't care for the Santa Cruz/Monterey minority carve-up, etc.)

[Greedo punched first]

I'm going to advocate for Diamond Bar-OC as the best connection here.

The natural population divisions in the SGV, as well as the gateway cities, separate this area from the rest of LA County. You know you have to have an Asian seat (CA-27), which is optimized here. If you don't split the Puente Hills region from the SGV, you end up having to put Pomona in an Inland Empire district with Rancho Cucamonga, which is far from ideal.

I did Diamond Bar-OC too.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm going to advocate for Diamond Bar-OC as the best connection here.

The natural population divisions in the SGV, as well as the gateway cities, separate this area from the rest of LA County. You know you have to have an Asian seat (CA-27), which is optimized here. If you don't split the Puente Hills region from the SGV, you end up having to put Pomona in an Inland Empire district with Rancho Cucamonga, which is far from ideal.

I mean you can get all of the Hispanic seat, the Asian seat, and the CA39 successor if you clean up Pasadena. I guess I put Pomona in with the Empire...but there is a reason for that (more tomorrow). I'm going to spoil a bit of my map here:

[LimoLiberal]

This is probably a stupid question, but if the previous map was created by a commission and the number of districts doesn't change why doesn't the 2020 commission just switch a few precincts to make populations equal and keep the map mostly the same? (I know that California is projected to lose a district as of now)

[SevenEleven]

This is probably a stupid question, but if the previous map was created by a commission and the number of districts doesn't change why doesn't the 2020 commission just switch a few precincts to make populations equal and keep the map mostly the same? (I know that California is projected to lose a district as of now)

The population changes over a decade are fairly great; you're talking about moving hundreds of thousands of people in certain metros. This disrupts ethnic districts and COIs.

Also, the last map was pretty awful in many ways. I suspect that the second commission will have an easier job than the first, and be able to reflect accordingly.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

[img width=760

I'm going to advocate for Diamond Bar-OC as the best connection here.

The natural population divisions in the SGV, as well as the gateway cities, separate this area from the rest of LA County. You know you have to have an Asian seat (CA-27), which is optimized here. If you don't split the Puente Hills region from the SGV, you end up having to put Pomona in an Inland Empire district with Rancho Cucamonga, which is far from ideal.

Is it though? So far as I'm concerned, once you pass La Verne you're basically in the Inland Empire. That said, I do get your case here as there is no way to avoid crossing the Puente Hills, either from Brea or Whittier, unless you tear up the SGV Asian district which is obviously a non-starter. I suppose you could rotate population from Pomona to San Bernardino to Riverside to SD to South OC but that's less than ideal.

[Oryxslayer]

This is probably a stupid question, but if the previous map was created by a commission and the number of districts doesn't change why doesn't the 2020 commission just switch a few precincts to make populations equal and keep the map mostly the same? (I know that California is projected to lose a district as of now)

Even if California was going to keep all 53, California would be losing seats....just to itself. It's that big. Seats from certain regions are moved to other areas. If 53 seats remain than the LA -> Imperial movement probably doesn't happen and all the minority seats are preserved and just expand outwards. However the inevitable shrinkage of the Jefferson grouping (current CA 1, 2, 3, 5) is going to lead to one of their seats becoming a Bay oriented seat rather than a Northern one.

Also there were a few weird trade-offs on the last map that don't really make sense like CA47. Last time, the GOP was still negotiating from a position of decency so they had get some swing and safer seats in exchange for all the newly created dem ones. This time, they are negotiating for whatever they can preserve.

[SevenEleven]

[img width=760

I'm going to advocate for Diamond Bar-OC as the best connection here.

The natural population divisions in the SGV, as well as the gateway cities, separate this area from the rest of LA County. You know you have to have an Asian seat (CA-27), which is optimized here. If you don't split the Puente Hills region from the SGV, you end up having to put Pomona in an Inland Empire district with Rancho Cucamonga, which is far from ideal.

Is it though? So far as I'm concerned, once you pass La Verne you're basically in the Inland Empire. That said, I do get your case here as there is no way to avoid crossing the Puente Hills, either from Brea or Whittier, unless you tear up the SGV Asian district which is obviously a non-starter. I suppose you could rotate population from Pomona to San Bernardino to Riverside to SD to South OC but that's less than ideal.

Dude, Pomona has the Fairplex. I'm not giving the LA County Fair to f'ing San Bernardino.

[Greedo punched first]

How bad would it be to connect Glendora to Santa Clarita?

[SevenEleven]

How bad would it be to connect Glendora to Santa Clarita?

From my ongoing write-up:

CA-32 East San Gabriel Valley and Pomona

Baldwin Park, Covina, West Covina, Azusa, San Dimas, La Verne, Claremont, and Pomona join Glendora (in a district it actually belongs in) and minor unincorporated areas to complete this Hispanic-majority district. This suburban district combines working class suburbs with some more well-to-do areas in the northern half. Fun fact: In N Out Burger was founded in this district. Hillary Clinton falls just short of 65% here in 2016.

Total           753,224   100.0%
White   143,696   19.1%
Hispanic   457,754   60.8%
Black   33,668   4.5%
Asian   123,418   16.4%
Native   20,130   2.7%
Pacific   4,235   0.6%

[Oryxslayer]

How bad would it be to connect Glendora to Santa Clarita?

Horrible....did you miss the pages of argument about NOT crossing the San Gabriel mountains except via the I5 pass?

[SevenEleven]

How bad would it be to connect Glendora to Santa Clarita?

Horrible....did you miss the pages of argument about NOT crossing the San Gabriel mountains except via the I5 pass?

Michael Berman would've done it.

[Greedo punched first]

How bad would it be to connect Glendora to Santa Clarita?

Horrible....did you miss the pages of argument about NOT crossing the San Gabriel mountains except via the I5 pass?

Michael Berman would've done it.

Didn't Michael Berman do OC-Corona?

[SevenEleven]

How bad would it be to connect Glendora to Santa Clarita?

Horrible....did you miss the pages of argument about NOT crossing the San Gabriel mountains except via the I5 pass?

Michael Berman would've done it.

Didn't Michael Berman do OC-Corona?

Yes, and OC to Rancho Palos Verdes, which the Glendora-Santa Clarita guy here also did.

[Greedo punched first]

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

[img width=760

I'm going to advocate for Diamond Bar-OC as the best connection here.

The natural population divisions in the SGV, as well as the gateway cities, separate this area from the rest of LA County. You know you have to have an Asian seat (CA-27), which is optimized here. If you don't split the Puente Hills region from the SGV, you end up having to put Pomona in an Inland Empire district with Rancho Cucamonga, which is far from ideal.

Is it though? So far as I'm concerned, once you pass La Verne you're basically in the Inland Empire. That said, I do get your case here as there is no way to avoid crossing the Puente Hills, either from Brea or Whittier, unless you tear up the SGV Asian district which is obviously a non-starter. I suppose you could rotate population from Pomona to San Bernardino to Riverside to SD to South OC but that's less than ideal.

Dude, Pomona has the Fairplex. I'm not giving the LA County Fair to f'ing San Bernardino.

I've actually never been.

[Greedo punched first]

[SevenEleven]

[img width=760

I'm going to advocate for Diamond Bar-OC as the best connection here.

The natural population divisions in the SGV, as well as the gateway cities, separate this area from the rest of LA County. You know you have to have an Asian seat (CA-27), which is optimized here. If you don't split the Puente Hills region from the SGV, you end up having to put Pomona in an Inland Empire district with Rancho Cucamonga, which is far from ideal.

Is it though? So far as I'm concerned, once you pass La Verne you're basically in the Inland Empire. That said, I do get your case here as there is no way to avoid crossing the Puente Hills, either from Brea or Whittier, unless you tear up the SGV Asian district which is obviously a non-starter. I suppose you could rotate population from Pomona to San Bernardino to Riverside to SD to South OC but that's less than ideal.

Dude, Pomona has the Fairplex. I'm not giving the LA County Fair to f'ing San Bernardino.

I've actually never been.

I've been to the Fairplex but not the fair. I'd prefer to avoid Pomona.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Orange and San Diego.

Are your 28th, 29th, and 30th on that map VRA compliant?

[Greedo punched first]

Orange and San Diego.

Are your 28th, 29th, and 30th on that map VRA compliant?

I don't know about 28th or 29th, but 30th is. Does 28 or 29 need to be? My 39 (Ontario) and 41 (San Bernardino) are VRA compliant. 28 still likely elects a Hispanic candidate. If it isn't a VRA seat, it likely still doesn't dilute any votes. It's 50% Hispanic CVAP. My 29th is Pasadena.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Orange and San Diego.

Are your 28th, 29th, and 30th on that map VRA compliant?

I don't know about 28th or 29th, but 30th is. Does 28 or 29 need to be? My 39 (Ontario) and 41 (San Bernardino) are VRA compliant. 28 still likely elects a Hispanic candidate. If it isn't a VRA seat, it likely still doesn't dilute any votes. It's 50% Hispanic CVAP. My 29th is Pasadena.

That's fine. What's the Asian percentage in 29?

[Greedo punched first]

Orange and San Diego.

Are your 28th, 29th, and 30th on that map VRA compliant?

I don't know about 28th or 29th, but 30th is. Does 28 or 29 need to be? My 39 (Ontario) and 41 (San Bernardino) are VRA compliant. 28 still likely elects a Hispanic candidate. If it isn't a VRA seat, it likely still doesn't dilute any votes. It's 50% Hispanic CVAP. My 29th is Pasadena.

That's fine. What's the Asian percentage in 29?

CA-29 is 34% Asian in CVAP, 36% in total population.