Democrats, which seats do you want most? (blue wave scenario)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

All unlikely. But blue wave scenario. Dems win Colorado, NC, ME and AZ. One vote

[😥]

I don't agree that all are unlikely: MT is Tossup/Tilt D, KS is Tossup/Tilt R with Kobach, both Georgia seats are Tossup. Among this races Likely/Safe R are only WV, KY and AL.

But, anyway:

1. Montana (Bullock)
2. Kentucky (McGarth, but it's because I dislike McConnell very much, not because I like McGrath)
3. Alabama (Jones)
4. Kansas (Bollier)
5. Georgia (Tomlinson, Warnock)
6. Texas (Hegar)
7. West Virginia (Ojeda)
8. Iowa (Greenfield)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Georgia, of course. 2 senate seats>anything else. Also, it'll give super-inelastic GA a Dem floor of 50.0001%

[Fight for Trump]

Taking down Bitch McConnell should be the dream of every Democrat.

[SevenEleven]

Texas.

[Mr. Smith]

Georgia, of course. 2 senate seats>anything else. Also, it'll give super-inelastic GA a Dem floor of 50.0001%

This. It's simple math people.

Bollier winning KS would be the most fun for novelty, and McGrath defeating McConnell would invoke the most schadenfreude...but no, the math matters.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Georgia, of course. 2 senate seats>anything else. Also, it'll give super-inelastic GA a Dem floor of 50.0001%

This. It's simple math people.

Bollier winning KS would be the most fun for novelty, and McGrath defeating McConnell would invoke the most schadenfreude...but no, the math matters.

The maths matters less if the GOP stops being so obstructionist, which there's a chance of if McConnell is out of power and his tactics are associated with failure. I'm leaning towards KY here, but would be sorely tempted by the GA pair.

[Fight for Trump]

Georgia, of course. 2 senate seats>anything else. Also, it'll give super-inelastic GA a Dem floor of 50.0001%

This. It's simple math people.

Bollier winning KS would be the most fun for novelty, and McGrath defeating McConnell would invoke the most schadenfreude...but no, the math matters.

The maths matters less if the GOP stops being so obstructionist, which there's a chance of if McConnell is out of power and his tactics are associated with failure. I'm leaning towards KY here, but would be sorely tempted by the GA pair.

Dream on buddy.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Georgia, of course. 2 senate seats>anything else. Also, it'll give super-inelastic GA a Dem floor of 50.0001%

This. It's simple math people.

Bollier winning KS would be the most fun for novelty, and McGrath defeating McConnell would invoke the most schadenfreude...but no, the math matters.

The maths matters less if the GOP stops being so obstructionist, which there's a chance of if McConnell is out of power and his tactics are associated with failure. I'm leaning towards KY here, but would be sorely tempted by the GA pair.

Dream on buddy.

I acknowledge the chance is low, but if McConnell lost and the Republicans held the rest of the (much more vulnerable) seats here, it would be hard not to see that as a repudiation of his personal politics (that is, KY would only fall because of his reputation). The next Republican Senate leader would have the fear of the same thing happening to them looming over their heads, and it might encourage them to take a somewhat different approach.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Georgia, of course. 2 senate seats>anything else. Also, it'll give super-inelastic GA a Dem floor of 50.0001%

This. It's simple math people.

Bollier winning KS would be the most fun for novelty, and McGrath defeating McConnell would invoke the most schadenfreude...but no, the math matters.

The maths matters less if the GOP stops being so obstructionist, which there's a chance of if McConnell is out of power and his tactics are associated with failure. I'm leaning towards KY here, but would be sorely tempted by the GA pair.

Dream on buddy.

I acknowledge the chance is low, but if McConnell lost and the Republicans held the rest of the (much more vulnerable) seats here, it would be hard not to see that as a repudiation of his personal politics (that is, KY would only fall because of his reputation). The next Republican Senate leader would have the fear of the same thing happening to them looming over their heads, and it might encourage them to take a somewhat different approach.

I doubt it. Besides, having senate Dems in power is better than having slightly-less-bad senate Republicans in power and winning the two GA seats basically guarantees the senate through all of Biden's first term. If 2020 is +CO +AZ +ME +NC +GA +GAs -AL, then the senate is 51D-49R. The worst thing that can happen in 2022 is -AZ, which leaves the senate at 50D-50R+Dem VP.

I doubt it too, but the low chance is still high enough to be tempting as a hypothetical. Having Senate Democrats tentatively holding the balance of power against obstructionist Republicans who still manage to erode democratic norms in the minority is actually worse than a more fragile majority in a much better functioning Senate, in my view. Concerns about McConnell's contributions to polarisation aside, shrinking a non-filibuster proof majority in return for getting the chance to pass legislation outside of budget reconciliation could be worthwhile.

A 52D-48R result does not guarantee the Senate is held through 2024, as the second GA seat's race (like AZ's) is a special election and their seats will be up again in 2022. Lose any two of those, NH and NV, and the Senate is lost assuming no gains in Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, NC, Ohio, Pennsylvania, SC or Wisconsin.

[Skunk]

Yeah, I have no idea why any Democrat wouldn't vote for Georgia in this scenario.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bullock, Bollier and Harrison has a chance due to similarly lookalike Tim Scott

[beaver2.0]

I'd prefer an IA where Franken is the nominee.

[Frodo]

The Turtle. 

[President Johnson]

Steve Bullock is the one I most want to see elected of the group. But Cocaine Mitch is the one I most want to lose.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Both seats in GA. Our position on SCOTUS depends on it.

[America Needs R'hllor]

If it's both GA seats, obviously this. If it's just one, BABS Bollier in Kansas, followed by:

1. Bollier
2. McGrath
3. Ossoff (non-special, 6 years)
4. Jones (would be absolutely beautiful to see the GOP reaction)
5. Bullock
6. Hegar
7. Greenfield
8. Ojeda
9. Warnock (2 years, good chance to lose it in 2022)

[Frodo]

None of you are keen to see Mitch McConnell go?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Right now AZ, CO, KS, Mt and NC flips, not sure about ME, but Collins will vote for Biden's nominees anyways