Trump supporters, do you feel you're in a better or worse position to win than a year ago?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I personally do not support Trump, and his chances have seemed to gone down beacause of COVID, but typically people give their side the benefit of the doubt, so I'm curious to hear your perspective, especially since the majority of active members on this forums are Democrats and/or anti-Trump folks.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I'm not a Trump supporter but it seems like a lot of them are relying on a hidden Trump vote appearing on election day.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think a lot of Trump supporters think there's a hidden Trump vote somewhere like in 2016. Of course 2020 is different because Biden isn't as unpopular as Clinton.

Then again, we kind of saw this pattern in 2018 as well. Ron DeSantis, Rick Scott, Mike Braun, Josh Hawley, Mike DeWine, Kim Reynolds all were considered people who would more likely than not lose their races.

[Progressive Pessimist]

They're deluded in their optimism towards him. So they'll probably look at the Reade story and the economy re-opening inevitably causing a boom in people returning to their social and work lives, and say that they're in a better position even as they ignore how Trump cannot help from making an ass out of himself at every moment during this crisis.

I almost envy that mentality. I wish I wasn't always so insecure in my expectations for things.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think a lot of Trump supporters think there's a hidden Trump vote somewhere like in 2016. Of course 2020 is different because Biden isn't as unpopular as Clinton.

Then again, we kind of saw this pattern in 2018 as well. Ron DeSantis, Rick Scott, Mike Braun, Josh Hawley, Mike DeWine, Kim Reynolds all were considered people who would more likely than not lose their races.

They won with a 3 5 percent unemployment rate, it's now 15 percent

Trump is finished

The Rs cant complain, they complained about the Obama economy which was on the downtrend of unemployment in 2010 and 2014. Trump keep boasting that he created a good economy and Obama created it

[Alben Barkley]

I think a lot of Trump supporters think there's a hidden Trump vote somewhere like in 2016. Of course 2020 is different because Biden isn't as unpopular as Clinton.

Then again, we kind of saw this pattern in 2018 as well. Ron DeSantis, Rick Scott, Mike Braun, Josh Hawley, Mike DeWine, Kim Reynolds all were considered people who would more likely than not lose their races.

Those races were considered toss-ups mostly, and people became more bearish on the Democrats’ chances after the Kavanaugh vote for the senate race.

Plus they’re all in red to purple states and many had strong GOP candidates — Scott in particular, I was never comfortable about that race. More popular than Trump in their states.

The important thing is that the states that matter most — MI, PA, WI — swung hard D in 2018.

[ElectionWatcher25]

I definitely thought the economy was his strongest re-election factor. So I would say his chances have definitely gone down. However, one thing I find interesting is that whilst his overall job approval remains underwater (as it has for years) his approval on the economy is still above 50% in several recent polls.

So, his chances have dropped a little, but he isn't done for. There is still a long way to go until November.

[Senator Spark]

Somewhat worse but his approval is getting better. There is a lot of time left for things to improve.

[Beet]

Not a Trump supporter, but while I was skeptical that he'd win reelection before the virus despite conventional wisdom being in his favor at the time, I now think he'll win.

The past month should put to rest any notion that an incompetent handling of the virus or a bad economy will hurt Trump. Nor can Trump's resilience in the polls be put down to a hard core of supporters who will support him even if he "shoots someone on Fifth Avenue". Instead, his approval ratings have continued their steady pace of rise since late 2017 and, more broadly, since he fully entered national politics in mid-2015. Fully a tenth of all who disapproved of him in late 2017 no longer do, while for every ten people who approved of him then, eleven do now. Slowly, almost imperceptibly, but inexorably, he is convincing more and more Americans that he is doing a good job.

On the other hand you have to look at the Democrats. Joe Biden's interview with Mika looked awful. The video has overall more "thumbs down" than "thumbs up" on YouTube, which is very unusual. He now stands credibly accused of sexual harassment. At 77, he is aging, and he speaks more slowly than he used to. He has a tough record to defend with nearly half a century of votes, remarks and actions he can be criticized for. It will be hard for him to criticize the status quo without being accused of having been a part of it. Trump, the insider, gets to play the outsider.

Then there is the, ah, direct effect of the virus. It may not be polite to talk about, but the numbers are no longer that small. It disproportionately affects minorities, especially African Americans, urban voters, and the poor with mortality. Further it disproportionately kills the old, e.g. the most likely to be eligible, registered, and habitual voters. The more likely you are to vote for Biden, demographically wise, the more likely you are not to be around by November. 75,000 have now been killed by the virus and it's going up by 10,000 a week. And while elections see millions of votes, with ten thousand here, ten thousand there, and eventually you're talking about real numbers. Just ask Al Gore, or Hillary Clinton.

In short, I now believe that Trump will likely reelected.

[Grassroots]

I was once a huge Trump supporter, and if anyone tells you Trump is in a better spot now than last year, they are lying.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not a Trump supporter, but while I was skeptical that he'd win reelection before the virus despite conventional wisdom being in his favor at the time, I now think he'll win.

The past month should put to rest any notion that an incompetent handling of the virus or a bad economy will hurt Trump. Nor can Trump's resilience in the polls be put down to a hard core of supporters who will support him even if he "shoots someone on Fifth Avenue". Instead, his approval ratings have continued their steady pace of rise since late 2017 and, more broadly, since he fully entered national politics in mid-2015. Fully a tenth of all who disapproved of him in late 2017 no longer do, while for every ten people who approved of him then, eleven do now. Slowly, almost imperceptibly, but inexorably, he is convincing more and more Americans that he is doing a good job.

On the other hand you have to look at the Democrats. Joe Biden's interview with Mika looked awful. The video has overall more "thumbs down" than "thumbs up" on YouTube, which is very unusual. He now stands credibly accused of sexual harassment. At 77, he is aging, and he speaks more slowly than he used to. He has a tough record to defend with nearly half a century of votes, remarks and actions he can be criticized for. It will be hard for him to criticize the status quo without being accused of having been a part of it. Trump, the insider, gets to play the outsider.

Then there is the, ah, direct effect of the virus. It may not be polite to talk about, but the numbers are no longer that small. It disproportionately affects minorities, especially African Americans, urban voters, and the poor with mortality. Further it disproportionately kills the old, e.g. the most likely to be eligible, registered, and habitual voters. The more likely you are to vote for Biden, demographically wise, the more likely you are not to be around by November. 75,000 have now been killed by the virus and it's going up by 10,000 a week. And while elections see millions of votes, with ten thousand here, ten thousand there, and eventually you're talking about real numbers. Just ask Al Gore, or Hillary Clinton.

In short, I now believe that Trump will likely reelected.

No it isn’t. Practically everything Biden related on YouTube gets destroyed on the thumbs up ratio because political YouTubeers are normally either hardcore Trumpers or Bernie supporters

[Bomster]

I’m losing hope in America.... it’s like this president stands for everything opposite to what I believe is at the core of this nation...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the worst failure of any president of any modern era, no libraries, no schools, etc

[Reaganfan]

About the same. Honestly.

Re-elections are extremely difficult to topple. I lived through Clinton's, Bush's and Obama's. For Bush and Obama, the other side was "positive" that "this time" they'd win. The maps ended up being close, and many predicted a Kerry victory or a Romney victory.

By 11pm at night, Bush and Obama were over 240 electoral votes.
 
I can foresee a similar scenario to where Florida, North Carolina and Ohio go to Trump and by midnight or 1am, the map looks something like this:

Trump: 249
Biden: 218

Trump will be trailing in New Hampshire and Minnesota, but probably be ahead in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona. Biden's campaign will be radio silent. Eventually he'll concede in a late Wednesday morning concession. He'll get all mellow and talk about "coming together".

Around the time Biden's phone call to Trump takes place, the networks call Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for Trump, giving him 279 electoral votes to Biden's 218.

Trump: 279
Biden: 218

Maybe I'm wrong but I foresee something like that.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It would have been great to run against Bernie Sanders with a good economy, I will say that. However, people don't seem to blame Trump for this recession (they think he can handle the economy better than biden in the polls) and Joe has his own struggles as an invidual. The situation isn't a pleasent one, but it's better than it could of been.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1257854687275081732
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1257855341456490499

[ProgressiveModerate]

It would have been great to run against Bernie Sanders with a good economy, I will say that. However, people don't seem to blame Trump for this recession (they think he can handle the economy better than biden in the polls) and Joe has his own struggles as an invidual. The situation isn't a pleasent one, but it's better than it could of been.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1257854687275081732
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1257855341456490499

Most polls show Biden with a decent NPV lead over Trump, and many swing state polls, namely MI and PA show Biden ahead. This eelction people aren't really voting for Biden, tehy're just voting against Trump, which is unfortunate but Trump is a unqiue president to say the least

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I’m losing hope in America.... it’s like this president stands for everything opposite to what I believe is at the core of this nation...

#us-general-discussion

[Joe Boden]

About the same. Honestly.

Re-elections are extremely difficult to topple. I lived through Clinton's, Bush's and Obama's. For Bush and Obama, the other side was "positive" that "this time" they'd win. The maps ended up being close, and many predicted a Kerry victory or a Romney victory.

By 11pm at night, Bush and Obama were over 240 electoral votes.
 
I can foresee a similar scenario to where Florida, North Carolina and Ohio go to Trump and by midnight or 1am, the map looks something like this:

Trump: 249
Biden: 218

Trump will be trailing in New Hampshire and Minnesota, but probably be ahead in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona. Biden's campaign will be radio silent. Eventually he'll concede in a late Wednesday morning concession. He'll get all mellow and talk about "coming together".

Around the time Biden's phone call to Trump takes place, the networks call Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for Trump, giving him 279 electoral votes to Biden's 218.

Trump: 279
Biden: 218

Maybe I'm wrong but I foresee something like that.

Who wins the last 4 states?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Much worse.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Obviously worse, since an economic recession was a foregone conclusion even in March, and the economic record was Trump's most convincing argument.

I'm not a huge Trump supporter like I was in 2917 and 2018, he's let the swamp/GOPe run his political agenda (mostly W/re Immigration and trade), he blew all of his political capital on tax reform, he gets in counterproductive fights because he can't not be the centre of attention, he got bamboozled by the Democratic leader: an 80 year old alcoholic, and he hasn't reached out to new voters who haven't voted for him in 16 (aside from the First step act, which he does deserve credit for).

Biden easily winning the nomination rather than Bernie/Warren or a nasty fight until the convention was his first big blow, he could have easily ran as the more "moderate" candidate against someone far left.  That gives Biden a very good shot of MI, PA, AZ and FL.  Covid also means that Biden isn't out campaigning and making gaffes that circulate on Twitter.  

Trump's one advantage is that the electorate is far more rigid and inelastic than it was in 1992 or even 2008 (his approval/disapproval rates bear this out) , so it isn't impossible that he could pull out a miracle.  But if held now Biden would win between 290 and 319 EVs, and win the PV by 4 or 5 points, flipping the big 3 rust belt states, Arizona and probably FL.  Trump would keep NC and GA by a point or 2.

[Orwell]

It would have been great to run against Bernie Sanders with a good economy, I will say that. However, people don't seem to blame Trump for this recession (they think he can handle the economy better than biden in the polls) and Joe has his own struggles as an invidual. The situation isn't a pleasent one, but it's better than it could of been.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1257854687275081732
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1257855341456490499

Most polls show Biden with a decent NPV lead over Trump, and many swing state polls, namely MI and PA show Biden ahead. This eelction people aren't really voting for Biden, tehy're just voting against Trump, which is unfortunate but Trump is a unqiue president to say the least

I'd like to point out in both the economy and FoPo in 2016 Clinton held leads on Trump, while Trump doubled HRC in Immigration and Natty Sec, but in "who would better handle the economy" 48% of respondents said Trump while only 46% said HRC. To add onto that, 62% of voters said the Economy was 'Poor' compared to only 36% who viewed the economy as good. I would also like to point to the exit polls where they asked "How Confident are you in your vote" the 47% that said Very Confident split for HRC by a 70-30 margin, while those at the lowest category 4% who said "Not at all confident" split for Trump at 60-30-10, many of the voters who chose Trump didn't choose him due to their like for him they chose him due to their dislike of HRC. That is why I think Biden is going to win in November, because of voters dislike of Trump and their support of Biden who has already proved more popular among Democrats and the key demographics needed come November then HRC.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

This is the worst failure of any president of any modern era, no libraries, no schools, etc

Moscow Don is going to get a Russian aircraft carrier named after him.

[Reaganfan]

About the same. Honestly.

Re-elections are extremely difficult to topple. I lived through Clinton's, Bush's and Obama's. For Bush and Obama, the other side was "positive" that "this time" they'd win. The maps ended up being close, and many predicted a Kerry victory or a Romney victory.

By 11pm at night, Bush and Obama were over 240 electoral votes.
 
I can foresee a similar scenario to where Florida, North Carolina and Ohio go to Trump and by midnight or 1am, the map looks something like this:

Trump: 249
Biden: 218

Trump will be trailing in New Hampshire and Minnesota, but probably be ahead in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona. Biden's campaign will be radio silent. Eventually he'll concede in a late Wednesday morning concession. He'll get all mellow and talk about "coming together".

Around the time Biden's phone call to Trump takes place, the networks call Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for Trump, giving him 279 electoral votes to Biden's 218.

Trump: 279
Biden: 218

Maybe I'm wrong but I foresee something like that.

Who wins the last 4 states?

Trump wins Arizona. Biden wins Minnesota, Michigan and New Hampshire. But all are called days after the election is over.

[Non Swing Voter]

There are 2 things that unquestionably have made Trump's chances worse:

1) Joe Biden is the nominee and not Bernie.

2) The economy is tanking and while that's not his fault, he can no longer run on it.  So he basically has nothing to run on.  So he's probably going to desperately blurt out stuff about Hunter Biden, China, and throw random bones to evangelicals with no clear overarching message for why he should be re-elected.

Also, a lot of people have noted that Incumbents tend to win re-election.  I think we're in a polarized time where that isn't as much of a factor.  Plus, Obama basically replicated his 2008 win but lost a little ground which cost him 2 of the closest states.  Trump starts with far less room for error.  If he deteriorates a few percentage points, which seems likely (and more), a large number of his states fall to Biden. 

The fact is, Trump more than any President in my lifetime has acted like he has a mandate and that he could thumb his nose to the rest of the country.  This was a mistake from the beginning, as he clearly didn't have a mandate. 

[Reaganfan]

There are 2 things that unquestionably have made Trump's chances worse:

1) Joe Biden is the nominee and not Bernie.

2) The economy is tanking and while that's not his fault, he can no longer run on it.  So he basically has nothing to run on.  So he's probably going to desperately blurt out stuff about Hunter Biden, China, and throw random bones to evangelicals with no clear overarching message for why he should be re-elected.

Also, a lot of people have noted that Incumbents tend to win re-election.  I think we're in a polarized time where that isn't as much of a factor.  Plus, Obama basically replicated his 2008 win but lost a little ground which cost him 2 of the closest states.  Trump starts with far less room for error.  If he deteriorates a few percentage points, which seems likely (and more), a large number of his states fall to Biden. 

The fact is, Trump more than any President in my lifetime has acted like he has a mandate and that he could thumb his nose to the rest of the country.  This was a mistake from the beginning, as he clearly didn't have a mandate. 

You can't run to just be "against" someone. It never works. We have to see Biden grow his appeal. If it's just to get rid of Trump, Biden will lose.