NV-Anzalone (D): Biden +4

[Skye]

Biden 49
Trump 45

Those are the findings of a statewide survey taken at the end of April by national Democratic pollster John Anzalone for a partisan group that wished to remain anonymous. It’s a poll of 763 likely Nevada voters – a very robust sample — and one that has a 3.6 percentage point margin of error.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/poll-sisolak-looks-strong-despite-shutdown-biden-has-small-lead-over-trump

[Gass3268]

Here's how this is gonna go:

1. Very early polls will have the Democrat leading.
2. Then the polls will shift and Trump will have a narrow to sometimes even a moderate lead. One poll will show Trump by double digits, event though they don't have a Spanish language option. Dems in disarray. Sean Trende will say something stupid and Harry Enten will say that the polls have never been wrong in Nevada.
3. The polls will then tighten about a month before the election. Everyone will then call it a Toss Up.
4. Early voting will start and it will be strong for the Democrats initially, but then the Republicans will recover during the first week after Trump does a visit. Jon Ralston will say it's close.
5. Democrats crush the early vote in the last week. Jon Ralston says its essentially over.
6. Democrats win by 3-7 points.

[lfromnj]

lol, ok in this environment probably like D+9?

[wbrocks67]

Considering NV polls always underrate Dems, Biden is probably up 6-7, which seems about right.

[Bidenworth2020]

NV polling gonna NV polling. Solid lead for a democrat considering that obvious caveat.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Here's how this is gonna go:

1. Very early polls will have the Democrat leading.
2. Then the polls will shift and Trump will have a narrow to sometimes even a moderate lead. One poll will show Trump by double digits, event though they don't have a Spanish language option. Dems in disarray. Sean Trende will say something stupid and Harry Enten will say that the polls have never been wrong in Nevada.
3. The polls will then tighten about a month before the election. Everyone will then call it a Toss Up.
4. Early voting will start and it will be strong for the Democrats initially, but then the Republicans will recover during the first week after Trump does a visit. Jon Ralston will say it's close.
5. Democrats crush the early vote in the last week. Jon Ralston says its essentially over.
6. Democrats win by 3-7 points.

2.5.  Some begin to predict that, at this rate, Trump "has a real shot at Virginia, too."

[Lief 🗽]

Here's how this is gonna go:

1. Very early polls will have the Democrat leading.
2. Then the polls will shift and Trump will have a narrow to sometimes even a moderate lead. One poll will show Trump by double digits, event though they don't have a Spanish language option. Dems in disarray. Sean Trende will say something stupid and Harry Enten will say that the polls have never been wrong in Nevada.
3. The polls will then tighten about a month before the election. Everyone will then call it a Toss Up.
4. Early voting will start and it will be strong for the Democrats initially, but then the Republicans will recover during the first week after Trump does a visit. Jon Ralston will say it's close.
5. Democrats crush the early vote in the last week. Jon Ralston says its essentially over.
6. Democrats win by 3-7 points.

Great post. This happens literally every election cycle and somehow pundits still refuse to recognize it.

Like Kornacki is usually a knowledgeable person, but he still plays this game. Sad!

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1258060617048563712

[Devils30]

Judging by the past results in NV and polls in AZ CO NM, its the definition of fools gold for the GOP. The true number is probably closer to 9

[Skill and Chance]

Judging by the past results in NV and polls in AZ CO NM, its the definition of fools gold for the GOP. The true number is probably closer to 9

Well, this is a Dem internal poll, but we know what always happens in NV.  I would treat Biden +4 as close to the true margin rather than being inflated, but I wouldn't add points to Biden.

[SaneDemocrat]

Nevada underestimates by 3-4 points

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isnt winning this election after his performance yesterday on natl TV

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The amount by which polls underestimate Democrats in Nevada is shockingly systematic and uniform.   This poll is definitely consistent with an 8-point Biden lean in both the state and the nation as a whole.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The amount by which polls underestimate Democrats in Nevada is shockingly systematic and uniform.   This poll is definitely consistent with an 8-point Biden lean in both the state and the nation as a whole.

Biden isnt leading  by 8, Change has him at 4

[Gracile]

The amount by which polls underestimate Democrats in Nevada is shockingly systematic and uniform.   This poll is definitely consistent with an 8-point Biden lean in both the state and the nation as a whole.

Biden isnt leading  by 8, Change has him at 4

Change isn't the best pollster.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Here's how this is gonna go:

1. Very early polls will have the Democrat leading.
2. Then the polls will shift and Trump will have a narrow to sometimes even a moderate lead. One poll will show Trump by double digits, event though they don't have a Spanish language option. Dems in disarray. Sean Trende will say something stupid and Harry Enten will say that the polls have never been wrong in Nevada.
3. The polls will then tighten about a month before the election. Everyone will then call it a Toss Up.
4. Early voting will start and it will be strong for the Democrats initially, but then the Republicans will recover during the first week after Trump does a visit. Jon Ralston will say it's close.
5. Democrats crush the early vote in the last week. Jon Ralston says its essentially over.
6. Democrats win by 3-7 points.

Great post. This happens literally every election cycle and somehow pundits still refuse to recognize it.

Like Kornacki is usually a knowledgeable person, but he still plays this game. Sad!

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1258060617048563712

Shifty Steve.

[Xing]

You're starting to learn, Atlas. I'm proud of you.

Anyway, Likely D, closer to Safe than Lean.

[SevenEleven]

Must be a bad sample. Many of the mechanics that cause Nevada Democrats to be underpolled are not present amidst this pandemic.

[President Johnson]

That would be the same result as governor in 2018. Anyway, since Nevada has a Republican bias in polling, Uncle Joe should be fine in the Silver State. He will win by mid to high single digits. Clark County will likely swing Democratic from 2016.

[ProudModerate2]

Too close for me.
But I hope others are correct, and the lead is really in the upper single-digit range.

[Eraserhead]

Send Bernie for some visits (if and when rallies are possible).

[Progressive Pessimist]

Double the margin and that might be more or less accurate as to how this state will vote.

[Hollywood]

The pollster was an advisor/operative for both Obama Administrations, John Anzalone, and has been advising Biden on a 2020 Presidential run since the beginning of last year.  He also had a hand in the Nevada Gubernatorial victory.  I think we might be looking at a Biden internal poll that has Trump performing well enough in Clark County (trailing 51 to 43) and Washoe County (trailing 48 to 45) for this one to be a nail-biter if a couple things go Trump's way.  Also, the pollster assumes that Trump will underperform with rural vote shares by 4% and margins by over 10%, which I guess is similar to the 2018 Gubernatorial race.  However, the shortfall in rural votes in 2018 could easily be the result of Trump's absence from the ballot.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/poll-sisolak-looks-strong-despite-shutdown-biden-has-small-lead-over-trump

I don't see the problem here.  49-45% is a realistic result to me.  The only polls showing a decisive or landslide win for Biden are the ones that over-estimated Biden's support during the Nevada Caucus.  In contrast, the polls with Sanders leading had a close general election race.  This far out in the race, we see all kinds of wonky stuff in polls.   

[pbrower2a]

Here's how this is gonna go:

1. Very early polls will have the Democrat leading.
2. Then the polls will shift and Trump will have a narrow to sometimes even a moderate lead. One poll will show Trump by double digits, event though they don't have a Spanish language option. Dems in disarray. Sean Trende will say something stupid and Harry Enten will say that the polls have never been wrong in Nevada.
3. The polls will then tighten about a month before the election. Everyone will then call it a Toss Up.
4. Early voting will start and it will be strong for the Democrats initially, but then the Republicans will recover during the first week after Trump does a visit. Jon Ralston will say it's close.
5. Democrats crush the early vote in the last week. Jon Ralston says its essentially over.
6. Democrats win by 3-7 points.

Early polls of Nevada usually have a modest Democratic lead that understates the large number of Nevada voters (especially Hispanic) who have only cell phones and are difficult to reach. At election time Nevada usually disappoints Republicans. Many of these are unionized workers in the casino industry, and union outreach works.

Note well that Trump has been a disaster to the casino industry, and Nevada has only tiny mining and  agricultural industries that used to be the basis of Republican victories.   

[pbrower2a]

53% disapproval in any state for a President running for re-election? He loses that state.

[Sbane]

lol, ok in this environment probably like D+9?

It will likely not trend one way or the other due to strong presence of both WWC and non-whites. The group that will swing the most, college-educated whites, are not present in high numbers here. Even in the current environment I don't see it voting for Biden by more than 7-9 points.