PPP (Iowa): Ernst +1
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October 20, 2021, 06:10:13 AM

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  PPP (Iowa): Ernst +1
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Author Topic: PPP (Iowa): Ernst +1  (Read 1975 times)
Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« on: May 04, 2020, 08:15:32 AM »

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2020, 08:24:26 AM »

Vibranium R.
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OneJ
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« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2020, 08:38:30 AM »

What's noteworthy is that Ernst is underperforming Trump here.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2020, 08:39:14 AM »

Great news
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2020, 08:58:06 AM »


For once you make perfect sense. Considering that Greenfield still most likely has considerably less name recognition than Ernst, this is a great poll for Democrats. I'm very glad to have another IA poll in general.
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S019
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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2020, 09:10:02 AM »

Lean R, this is more competitive that Atlas admits, but Ernst is still an undeniable favorite, and this is way closer to Likely than tossup. Honestly, Iíd prefer that Democrats donít invest too much here, as this one is basically a reach race.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2020, 09:21:14 AM »

Is it possible there are some state-specific COVID-related shift here that isn't purely attributable to the national environment?  Reynolds has one of the lower gubernatorial approval ratings on COVID in that big nationwide Harvard study and I wonder if that's knocking Trump/Ernst down a few points from where they would be otherwise.
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indietraveler
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« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2020, 09:27:07 AM »

I still think Ernst is favored but I'd love to be wrong here. If this does prove to be competitive it could be the last democratic senator from IA in a while. From what I've heard once Grassley retires his grandson might try to replace him. I feel like the name alone would make him a shoe in.
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2020, 09:37:00 AM »

Lean R, this is more competitive that Atlas admits, but Ernst is still an undeniable favorite, and this is way closer to Likely than tossup. Honestly, Iíd prefer that Democrats donít invest too much here, as this one is basically a reach race.

Iím confused...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2020, 09:39:19 AM »

Lean R, this is more competitive that Atlas admits, but Ernst is still an undeniable favorite, and this is way closer to Likely than tossup. Honestly, Iíd prefer that Democrats donít invest too much here, as this one is basically a reach race.

She has a 37% approval rating. I wouldn't call that an 'undeniable favorite' in any sense of the word
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2020, 09:52:38 AM »

Dems control 3/4 Congressional districts in IA, and JD Scholten can beat King due to Southern strategy remarks. It's time for Dems to stop acting like IA is MO and OH is IN and FL is WVa. Dems won all three states in 92, 96, 08 and 12, and can win them again
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Orser67
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« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2020, 10:19:30 AM »

I think I'm ready to move this race to Lean R. Still an uphill climb, though.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2020, 11:25:10 AM »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-05-01

Summary: D: 42%, R: 43%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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We Live in Black and White
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« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2020, 12:14:44 PM »

I'm not sure I buy the race being this close, but COVID season has been bad for pretty much everyone in remotely competitive GOP seats. I don't necessarily think this is as safe as Atlas likes to think it is, but recruiting failure and political trends still make this an unlikely get.

To which I add by saying that I fervently hope I'm wrong and PPP is right.
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S019
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« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2020, 12:36:15 PM »

Lean R, this is more competitive that Atlas admits, but Ernst is still an undeniable favorite, and this is way closer to Likely than tossup. Honestly, Iíd prefer that Democrats donít invest too much here, as this one is basically a reach race.

Iím confused...

I mean that it's not Likely/Safe R, and it is competitive, but at the same time it's Lean R, and Ernst is a definite favorite, just not an overwhelming one.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #15 on: May 04, 2020, 12:45:22 PM »

I seem to remember Ernst only leading by a point or two the weekend before the 2014 election and look how that story ends. Also didnít Hubble lead most gubernatorial polls?
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Xing
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« Reply #16 on: May 04, 2020, 02:45:02 PM »

Ernst is still definitely favored here, and I doubt this gets too interesting barring a wave, but the fact that sheís underperforming Trump (even if just barely) doesnít suggest sheís headed for a 20-point win. Iíd say sheís probably going to win by about her 2014 margin. Likely R, not the most promising race for Democrats, but not completely safe for Ernst.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #17 on: May 04, 2020, 04:46:22 PM »

This also shows Trump leading Biden by just 2. If Greenfield canít lead in a poll which has Trump close to tied with Biden in IA...

The sample is Trump +9 according to 2016 vote, so it's probably close to the current state of the race.
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2016
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« Reply #18 on: May 04, 2020, 04:46:51 PM »

It's a PPP Poll. I am getting sick and tired about their "Agenda Polling" to boost Democrats. Thumpsdown!
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #19 on: May 04, 2020, 07:05:23 PM »

This also shows Trump leading Biden by just 2. If Greenfield canít lead in a poll which has Trump close to tied with Biden in IA...

They pulled Greenfield not Franken and Franken can win
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morgieb
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« Reply #20 on: May 04, 2020, 07:30:28 PM »

If Ernst is only at 42% in a poll Trump is leading (and the sample is the same as the 2016 vote), that is....not a great sign. It's still only one poll, but I don't really think this is Safe R.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #21 on: May 04, 2020, 07:46:14 PM »

IA isnt safe R, it tilts R, just like PA tilts D or MI or WI. Rs have to watch OH, IA and FL just like Dems have to watch out for PA/MI and WI. In the world after COVID 19, anything can happen, just like Bush W upset John Kerry after 911
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Brittain33
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« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2020, 11:55:49 AM »

I seem to remember Ernst only leading by a point or two the weekend before the 2014 election and look how that story ends.

Yes, Republicans did better in their 2014 wave than polls predicted. I wouldnít count on that in 2020 although who knows.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2020, 01:15:09 PM »

Obama was at 44 percent and the unemployment was like 7 percent, but it was on the downswing.

Trump had 3.5 percent and never been above 44 and 20 percent unemployment
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Brittain33
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« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2020, 08:40:14 PM »

Joni Ernst is the Republican Kay Hagen.
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