PPP (Iowa): Ernst +1
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:21:52 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls
  PPP (Iowa): Ernst +1
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: PPP (Iowa): Ernst +1  (Read 2628 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,931
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 04, 2020, 08:15:32 AM »

Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,611
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2020, 08:24:26 AM »

Vibranium R.
Logged
OneJ
OneJ_
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,834
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2020, 08:38:30 AM »

What's noteworthy is that Ernst is underperforming Trump here.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2020, 08:39:14 AM »

Great news
Logged
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,577
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2020, 08:58:06 AM »


For once you make perfect sense. Considering that Greenfield still most likely has considerably less name recognition than Ernst, this is a great poll for Democrats. I'm very glad to have another IA poll in general.
Logged
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,248
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2020, 09:10:02 AM »

Lean R, this is more competitive that Atlas admits, but Ernst is still an undeniable favorite, and this is way closer to Likely than tossup. Honestly, I’d prefer that Democrats don’t invest too much here, as this one is basically a reach race.
Logged
tagimaucia
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 570


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2020, 09:21:14 AM »

Is it possible there are some state-specific COVID-related shift here that isn't purely attributable to the national environment?  Reynolds has one of the lower gubernatorial approval ratings on COVID in that big nationwide Harvard study and I wonder if that's knocking Trump/Ernst down a few points from where they would be otherwise.
Logged
indietraveler
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,039


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2020, 09:27:07 AM »

I still think Ernst is favored but I'd love to be wrong here. If this does prove to be competitive it could be the last democratic senator from IA in a while. From what I've heard once Grassley retires his grandson might try to replace him. I feel like the name alone would make him a shoe in.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,931
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2020, 09:37:00 AM »

Lean R, this is more competitive that Atlas admits, but Ernst is still an undeniable favorite, and this is way closer to Likely than tossup. Honestly, I’d prefer that Democrats don’t invest too much here, as this one is basically a reach race.

I’m confused...
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,736


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2020, 09:39:19 AM »

Lean R, this is more competitive that Atlas admits, but Ernst is still an undeniable favorite, and this is way closer to Likely than tossup. Honestly, I’d prefer that Democrats don’t invest too much here, as this one is basically a reach race.

She has a 37% approval rating. I wouldn't call that an 'undeniable favorite' in any sense of the word
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2020, 09:52:38 AM »

Dems control 3/4 Congressional districts in IA, and JD Scholten can beat King due to Southern strategy remarks. It's time for Dems to stop acting like IA is MO and OH is IN and FL is WVa. Dems won all three states in 92, 96, 08 and 12, and can win them again
Logged
Orser67
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,947
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2020, 10:19:30 AM »

I think I'm ready to move this race to Lean R. Still an uphill climb, though.
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,628
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2020, 11:25:10 AM »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-05-01

Summary: D: 42%, R: 43%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
We Live in Black and White
SvenTC
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,697
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.81, S: -6.82

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2020, 12:14:44 PM »

I'm not sure I buy the race being this close, but COVID season has been bad for pretty much everyone in remotely competitive GOP seats. I don't necessarily think this is as safe as Atlas likes to think it is, but recruiting failure and political trends still make this an unlikely get.

To which I add by saying that I fervently hope I'm wrong and PPP is right.
Logged
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,248
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2020, 12:36:15 PM »

Lean R, this is more competitive that Atlas admits, but Ernst is still an undeniable favorite, and this is way closer to Likely than tossup. Honestly, I’d prefer that Democrats don’t invest too much here, as this one is basically a reach race.

I’m confused...

I mean that it's not Likely/Safe R, and it is competitive, but at the same time it's Lean R, and Ernst is a definite favorite, just not an overwhelming one.
Logged
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,098
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 04, 2020, 12:45:22 PM »

I seem to remember Ernst only leading by a point or two the weekend before the 2014 election and look how that story ends. Also didn’t Hubble lead most gubernatorial polls?
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 04, 2020, 02:45:02 PM »

Ernst is still definitely favored here, and I doubt this gets too interesting barring a wave, but the fact that she’s underperforming Trump (even if just barely) doesn’t suggest she’s headed for a 20-point win. I’d say she’s probably going to win by about her 2014 margin. Likely R, not the most promising race for Democrats, but not completely safe for Ernst.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,577
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: May 04, 2020, 04:46:22 PM »

This also shows Trump leading Biden by just 2. If Greenfield can’t lead in a poll which has Trump close to tied with Biden in IA...

The sample is Trump +9 according to 2016 vote, so it's probably close to the current state of the race.
Logged
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: May 04, 2020, 04:46:51 PM »

It's a PPP Poll. I am getting sick and tired about their "Agenda Polling" to boost Democrats. Thumpsdown!
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: May 04, 2020, 07:05:23 PM »

This also shows Trump leading Biden by just 2. If Greenfield can’t lead in a poll which has Trump close to tied with Biden in IA...

They pulled Greenfield not Franken and Franken can win
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,621
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: May 04, 2020, 07:30:28 PM »

If Ernst is only at 42% in a poll Trump is leading (and the sample is the same as the 2016 vote), that is....not a great sign. It's still only one poll, but I don't really think this is Safe R.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: May 04, 2020, 07:46:14 PM »

IA isnt safe R, it tilts R, just like PA tilts D or MI or WI. Rs have to watch OH, IA and FL just like Dems have to watch out for PA/MI and WI. In the world after COVID 19, anything can happen, just like Bush W upset John Kerry after 911
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2020, 11:55:49 AM »

I seem to remember Ernst only leading by a point or two the weekend before the 2014 election and look how that story ends.

Yes, Republicans did better in their 2014 wave than polls predicted. I wouldn’t count on that in 2020 although who knows.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2020, 01:15:09 PM »

Obama was at 44 percent and the unemployment was like 7 percent, but it was on the downswing.

Trump had 3.5 percent and never been above 44 and 20 percent unemployment
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2020, 08:40:14 PM »

Joni Ernst is the Republican Kay Hagen.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.052 seconds with 13 queries.