Was Michigan a dummymander?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Republicans could very well have more seats on a fair map there, with the Democrats only having two in Detroit, one in the Detroit suburbs, another swing district in the Detroit suburbs and that Ann Arbor/working class parts of Wayne County one. As it turns out they got those plus that Lansing+Detroit exurbs one and that one based in Flint taking in some other areas, a "fair" map might also allow the 11th to be less of a swing one if combined with some of the exurban areas.

[lfromnj]

Dummymander from a fair map?
Probably not, Metro detroit Still probably has 5 D or maybe even 6 if they streched out the Washentaw district a bit, maybe the inner Macomb district flips in 2016 or 2014 but considering its only Trump +7 it was probably Whitmer +7 or so and definetely flips back in 2018. There would still be a lansing based district thats even more D so that would probably flip D in 2012 then maybe back r in 2014 but flips back in 2016 or 2018.
And the Flint district would also be D unless you flit Gennesee to the thumb as the most R district you can get is really Trump +12 using the thumb but Cartwright survived there.

Although a GOP gerrymander that was better made might have just ended up with a 6-8.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Democrats would have won 7 seats all decade under a nonpartisan map so I would say no.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Short answer: yes. If you apply the logic that MI-08 and MI-11 were drawn to keep out Democrats, then yes. Although one should note that both were carried by Obama in 2008. Granted, that was probably expected to be a one-time performance.

[lfromnj]

Short answer: yes. If you apply the logic that MI-08 and MI-11 were drawn to keep out Democrats, then yes. Although one should note that both were carried by Obama in 2008. Granted, that was probably expected to be a one-time performance.

A dummymander would mean losing more seats than what might have been lost if you just sacrificed and sunk a seat, for example if Ohio 1st flipped in 2018 its not a dummymander because even if you just sunk you would have had 1 D seat either way. Another type of dummymander could be not being aggressive enough such as with NE ohio but obviously sinking Youngstown was pretty nccessary for every year until 2016. So yes its possible that they could given up one of MI 11th or 8th in 2010 and it would be a 6D-8 R delegation but a fair map would still have something similar.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

A nonpartisan map would have caused the 8th to remain Republican in 2018, but also have caused both the 11th and the 7th to go Democratic all decade.

[EastAnglianLefty]

No, it wasn't a dummymander, because it held up for most of the decade.

Also, the argument that there wouldn't be a Flint-based Democratic seat on a fair map doesn't really stand up. Even if you go for a Republican gerrymander and combine it with the Thumb, it's no worse than a toss-up even now. It's trending R, but still from a fairly high Democratic base.

[Idaho Conservative]

No, Republicans lost the popular vote in 2018 and still held half the seats.

[Nyvin]

The MI-5 district kinda sorta could be considered a dummymander since it's basically protecting Dan Kildee nowadays rather than accomplishing any "packing" like it was intended.  I think from 2014 onwards they could've won that district if it was drawn differently (and not lose any neighboring district either).

Of course Kildee still wins with ~60% of the vote even in 2018, so who knows.

[lfromnj]

The MI-5 district kinda sorta could be considered a dummymander since it's basically protecting Dan Kildee nowadays rather than accomplishing any "packing" like it was intended.  I think from 2014 onwards they could've won that district if it was drawn differently (and not lose any neighboring district either).

If Cartwright held on in a Trump +10 district, Kildee would have done so too.

Still I love Stephen wolf wanting the GOP gerrymandered map after 2016 when he see's Michigan's trends after complaining Michigan 5 was a D sink.

[Tintrlvr]

A dummymander is a map that, either from the beginning or at some point later on, actively works in favor of your opposition (think the current Arkansas map, even though the Arkansas Democrats could have drawn a seat that even now would elect a Democrat). The Republicans didn't hold on to every seat they intended to, but they also didn't experience major losses. It would be a dummymander if the Democrats held 1 or especially 2+ more seats than they do now.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

A dummymander is a map that, either from the beginning or at some point later on, actively works in favor of your opposition (think the current Arkansas map, even though the Arkansas Democrats could have drawn a seat that even now would elect a Democrat). The Republicans didn't hold on to every seat they intended to, but they also didn't experience major losses. It would be a dummymander if the Democrats held 1 or especially 2+ more seats than they do now.

Arkansas Democrats could have drawn 2 seats which would have elected a Democrat even now after 2010 in fact if they drew a strong enough gerrymander. Not just 1.

See here