Rate a Pressley vs. Moulton Senate primary

[Tekken_Guy]

What would a Senate Primary between Ayanna Pressley vs. Seth Moulton look like?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pressley

[HarrisonL]

Pressley would win this primary if this matchup occurred. I'd go bold and say that Pressley would win by 5-10%.

[Left Wing]

I think Massachusetts has enough conservative Catholic Democrats who would carry Moulton to victory.

[voice_of_resistance]

Pressley would probably win, since our primaries are semi-closed and not open, meaning he can't get Republicans to cross over if they are fearful of another activist woman senator representing them. I think the more interesting one is who would win between Pressley vs. Joe Kennedy III? He's clearly running now because he thinks that running against Pressley is too risky when another seat opens up.

[Free Bird]

How much would the DSCC endorsement/resources weigh here? Isn't that what pushed Markey over the top versus Lynch? I doubt they'd be Pressley fans.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Moulton. Pressley's tried to do a delicate dance between the radicalism of the Squad and the mainstream liberalism of the Congressional Black Caucus. Moulton will be able to constantly put her on the spot about whether she believes wildly unpopular positions of AOC, Omar, and Tlaib, and she'd be in a no-win situation.

[Gracile]

Pressley is far more appealing to Democratic base voters than Moulton.

[Blair]

Interesting thread with some posters in my view completely underrating Pressley & falling into the trap of treating the 'squad' as some sort of collective lump.

The two most skilled politicians out of the four are AOC & Pressley- and it's obvious because they beat incumbents.

Pressley deserves more credit than AOC because a large part of AOC's race seemed to do well out of Crowley being the typical democratic pol that people hate. Pressley beat a progressive democrat with the emphasis on personal differences rather than ideological.

Besides look at Pressley's background: former staffer to both Kennedy & Kerry, had done consitutency work irrc (an extremely underrated job for aspiring politicians) & then served on the Boston Council. It's pretty much the exact same route that most politicains take- she just would have had to wait until she was 50 odd to get this seat (if she did)

Moulton. Pressley's tried to do a delicate dance between the radicalism of the Squad and the mainstream liberalism of the Congressional Black Caucus. Moulton will be able to constantly put her on the spot about whether she believes wildly unpopular positions of AOC, Omar, and Tlaib, and she'd be in a no-win situation.

I mean this would work well with a democratic primary in West Virginia.

Beyond questions about BDS (which what like 5% of democratic voters actually care about or understaand) I can't see why spending your whole race talking about other people would help Moulton.

I imagine that if you polled Massachuttes democrats about A.) The Green New Deal B.) A $15 minimum wage C.) Assault weapons ban etc etc you'd find they were all popular.

I mean Moulton himself is hardly somesort of moderate; he's just good at talking about values & uses his army background but he's still broadly in the ideological mainstream of the party (supports £15, supports pot legislation etc)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Glad to see Pressley and Joe Kennedy whom will win due to Markey not being seen in media. Joe and Pressley will be in Senate simultaneously

[MillennialModerate]

Mouton has a lot of appeal until he kind of ruined his image by running for President.

He comes across as a hack which is what he was supposedly going to Washington to take down.

I think it would be close however but I’d support Presley. Either one I think wouldn’t be terrible Senators but they’re nowhere near what Warren is and nowhere near what Joe Kennedy will be

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Neither

[President Johnson]

Lean Moulton, I guess. But I have no idea. Would support Moulton, obviously.

[Zaybay]

Pressley.

Looking at this primary from multiple angles, Pressley has the advantage.

1. Geography: Pressley represents Boston and some surrounding areas that are heavily Democratic, like Somerville. This means that Pressley has a ton of D primary voters that would be favorable to her. Stephen Lynch can tell you (with a cross expression, most likely) how powerful having a heavily D geographic base can be. Moulton, meanwhile, represents the North East corner of the state, which is much more Republican.

2. Race: A key reason for Pressley's victory over Capuano in 2017 was her ability to win over African American voters in the district. While they dont constitute that much of MA, having ties with the group presents Pressley with an advantage. Moulton, meanwhile, doesnt have such ties. Its a small advantage, but an advantage nonetheless.

3. Ideology: Pressley is a progressive, and Moulton is not. MA's D electorate is rather progressive. Simple as that.

4. Political Skill: This one is mostly subjective, but its hard to argue that Pressley, who was able to dispatch a rather fine incumbent by a large margin, has worse political skills than Moulton, who dispatched a tarred incumbent by a much smaller margin and then burned political capital by stupidly running for president.

Moulton really has no advantage in such a matchup. Perhaps if he were facing off against Lynch, it would be a fairer fight, but as it stands, its Pressley's game to lose.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I voted Likely Pressley, but I think she is being definitely overestimated by most posters. It's correct to note that Pressley was elected against an incumbent, but the difference between her and say AOC is that while AOC was elected on a broad ideological message which, as much as I may hate, has at least some sort of appeal to extremely liberal Democrats of all stripes, Pressley won off of blatant race baiting. That may work great in the only majority minority district in the state, but it certainly won't be nearly as effective statewide (I doubt AOC could win statewide either, but conflating the two is a mistake.)

[Canis]

How much would the DSCC endorsement/resources weigh here? Isn't that what pushed Markey over the top versus Lynch? I doubt they'd be Pressley fans.

MA is Safe D I doubt the DSCC would get involved

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Probably Pressley, but Moulton would've won before his utterly pointless Presidential campaign.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kennedy probably will be in the Senate already. Since Dems lack diversity, Pressley would win

[Meatball Ron]

Yeah as a Massachusetts voter, I would reiterate the fact that JK3 is running now, even though it means challenging someone he's never had any qualms with, because he's scared of having to run against Pressley next time a Senate seat opens up (whether that is Markey's retirement in '26, Warren's ascendance to VP or Cabinet - whatever). Pressley is extremely formidable (she beat a very popular, very progressive Congressman after all - Capuano was no Joe Crowley) and should not be lumped in with Omar/Tlaib or even AOC, really. She would absolutely obliterate Moulton.

[Meatball Ron]

Pressley won off of blatant race baiting.

You have...never been to Massachusetts, I'm guessing? And didn't pay attention to this race when it was happening? I agree Pressley's message against Capuano (also very progressive) was not overly ideological, but it was nothing close to 'race-baiting.' Get outta here with that misinformation nonsense. Or show me one single shred of real evidence that she did anything of the sort?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Pressley won off of blatant race baiting.

You have...never been to Massachusetts, I'm guessing? And didn't pay attention to this race when it was happening? I agree Pressley's message against Capuano (also very progressive) was not overly ideological, but it was nothing close to 'race-baiting.' Get outta here with that misinformation nonsense. Or show me one single shred of real evidence that she did anything of the sort?

MA born grandparents, MA born mother, several MA family members, visited several times. Unclear on the relevance either way, but all right. Now, on the actual subject? I don't know what else you can call running against an incumbent whom you yourself acknowledge little ideological difference between and campaigning simply on your race and gender.

"Pressley acknowledged there was little daylight between her and Capuano on policy, though she differentiated herself on the fate of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency and by not accepting corporate PAC money. But most of all, Pressley offered voters a different style of leadership, leaning heavily on her experiences as a black woman, casting her candidacy as a vote for change in a “fight for the soul of the Democratic Party.”

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/04/massachusetts-primary-capuano-pressley-807064

"A different type of race is taking shape in the Democratic primary for Massachusetts’s 7th Congressional District, a seat comprised of downtown Boston and surrounding suburbs. Though media outlets across the country have labeled the Pressley challenge in Massachusetts as the “next Ocasio-Cortez,” the race differs from other progressive challenges to entrenched Democrats: Pressley’s policy positions are frequently indistinguishable from her opponent."

“Congressman Mike Capuano has been a fine, progressive member of Congress, but having an experienced progressive like Ayanna Pressley on the ballot is an unmissable opportunity for Massachusetts to both ensure a leading woman of color represents its only majority-minority district and add the voice of just one person of color to New England’s currently all-white congressional delegation,” said Jim Dean, chair for Democracy for America, in a statement. Jonathan Cohn, co-chair of Progressive Massachusetts, explained that his group also endorsed Pressley over Capuano because of the “need for more diverse representation in Congress and the need for more activist leadership from Democrats in Congress.”

https://theintercept.com/2018/08/18/mike-capuano-ayanna-pressley-massachusetts-primary/

Now, before you say, "Oh, that wasn't REALLY race baiting" I'm just going to translate that into the Republican equivalent and get your reaction.

“Senator Tim Scott has been a fine, conservative member of Congress, but having an experienced patriotic conservative like [Insert White Person Here] on the ballot is an unmissable opportunity for South Carolina to elect a White American to Congress,” said Jim Dean, chair for Freedom for America, in a statement. Jonathan Roberts, co-chair of Heritage South Carolina, explained that his group also endorsed [White Person] over Scott because of the “need for more Caucasian-American and Southern Heritage oriented members of Congress."

[Meatball Ron]

Pressley won off of blatant race baiting.

You have...never been to Massachusetts, I'm guessing? And didn't pay attention to this race when it was happening? I agree Pressley's message against Capuano (also very progressive) was not overly ideological, but it was nothing close to 'race-baiting.' Get outta here with that misinformation nonsense. Or show me one single shred of real evidence that she did anything of the sort?

MA born grandparents, MA born mother, several MA family members, visited several times. Unclear on the relevance either way, but all right. Now, on the actual subject? I don't know what else you can call running against an incumbent whom you yourself acknowledge little ideological difference between and campaigning simply on your race and gender.

"Pressley acknowledged there was little daylight between her and Capuano on policy, though she differentiated herself on the fate of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency and by not accepting corporate PAC money. But most of all, Pressley offered voters a different style of leadership, leaning heavily on her experiences as a black woman, casting her candidacy as a vote for change in a “fight for the soul of the Democratic Party.”

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/04/massachusetts-primary-capuano-pressley-807064

"A different type of race is taking shape in the Democratic primary for Massachusetts’s 7th Congressional District, a seat comprised of downtown Boston and surrounding suburbs. Though media outlets across the country have labeled the Pressley challenge in Massachusetts as the “next Ocasio-Cortez,” the race differs from other progressive challenges to entrenched Democrats: Pressley’s policy positions are frequently indistinguishable from her opponent."

“Congressman Mike Capuano has been a fine, progressive member of Congress, but having an experienced progressive like Ayanna Pressley on the ballot is an unmissable opportunity for Massachusetts to both ensure a leading woman of color represents its only majority-minority district and add the voice of just one person of color to New England’s currently all-white congressional delegation,” said Jim Dean, chair for Democracy for America, in a statement. Jonathan Cohn, co-chair of Progressive Massachusetts, explained that his group also endorsed Pressley over Capuano because of the “need for more diverse representation in Congress and the need for more activist leadership from Democrats in Congress.”

https://theintercept.com/2018/08/18/mike-capuano-ayanna-pressley-massachusetts-primary/

Now, before you say, "Oh, that wasn't REALLY race baiting" I'm just going to translate that into the Republican equivalent and get your reaction.

“Senator Tim Scott has been a fine, conservative member of Congress, but having an experienced patriotic conservative like [Insert White Person Here] on the ballot is an unmissable opportunity for South Carolina to elect a White American to Congress,” said Jim Dean, chair for Freedom for America, in a statement. Jonathan Roberts, co-chair of Heritage South Carolina, explained that his group also endorsed [White Person] over Scott because of the “need for more Caucasian-American and Southern Heritage oriented members of Congress."

Those are all news articles highlighting the importance of Pressley's race. "Jim Dean" is not Ayanna. I was asking you for a single shred of evidence that AYANNA or her official campaign apparatus engaged in any 'race-baiting.' As far as I can tell, Ayanna ran on a vague notion of fresh leadership / new generation / etc.

Also, even had the quotes you shared came from Ayanna: emphasizing that diversity in Congress = good and that representation matters, so there might be some upside to a POC representing a majority-minority district is not anywhere close to "race-baiting." The reversal you suggested DOESN'T WORK because Congress is mostly white, so to say we need more whites in Congress is racist.

[Greedo punched first]

Lean Pressley.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Pressley won off of blatant race baiting.

You have...never been to Massachusetts, I'm guessing? And didn't pay attention to this race when it was happening? I agree Pressley's message against Capuano (also very progressive) was not overly ideological, but it was nothing close to 'race-baiting.' Get outta here with that misinformation nonsense. Or show me one single shred of real evidence that she did anything of the sort?

MA born grandparents, MA born mother, several MA family members, visited several times. Unclear on the relevance either way, but all right. Now, on the actual subject? I don't know what else you can call running against an incumbent whom you yourself acknowledge little ideological difference between and campaigning simply on your race and gender.

"Pressley acknowledged there was little daylight between her and Capuano on policy, though she differentiated herself on the fate of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency and by not accepting corporate PAC money. But most of all, Pressley offered voters a different style of leadership, leaning heavily on her experiences as a black woman, casting her candidacy as a vote for change in a “fight for the soul of the Democratic Party.”

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/04/massachusetts-primary-capuano-pressley-807064

"A different type of race is taking shape in the Democratic primary for Massachusetts’s 7th Congressional District, a seat comprised of downtown Boston and surrounding suburbs. Though media outlets across the country have labeled the Pressley challenge in Massachusetts as the “next Ocasio-Cortez,” the race differs from other progressive challenges to entrenched Democrats: Pressley’s policy positions are frequently indistinguishable from her opponent."

“Congressman Mike Capuano has been a fine, progressive member of Congress, but having an experienced progressive like Ayanna Pressley on the ballot is an unmissable opportunity for Massachusetts to both ensure a leading woman of color represents its only majority-minority district and add the voice of just one person of color to New England’s currently all-white congressional delegation,” said Jim Dean, chair for Democracy for America, in a statement. Jonathan Cohn, co-chair of Progressive Massachusetts, explained that his group also endorsed Pressley over Capuano because of the “need for more diverse representation in Congress and the need for more activist leadership from Democrats in Congress.”

https://theintercept.com/2018/08/18/mike-capuano-ayanna-pressley-massachusetts-primary/

Now, before you say, "Oh, that wasn't REALLY race baiting" I'm just going to translate that into the Republican equivalent and get your reaction.

“Senator Tim Scott has been a fine, conservative member of Congress, but having an experienced patriotic conservative like [Insert White Person Here] on the ballot is an unmissable opportunity for South Carolina to elect a White American to Congress,” said Jim Dean, chair for Freedom for America, in a statement. Jonathan Roberts, co-chair of Heritage South Carolina, explained that his group also endorsed [White Person] over Scott because of the “need for more Caucasian-American and Southern Heritage oriented members of Congress."

Those are all news articles highlighting the importance of Pressley's race. "Jim Dean" is not Ayanna. I was asking you for a single shred of evidence that AYANNA or her official campaign apparatus engaged in any 'race-baiting.' As far as I can tell, Ayanna ran on a vague notion of fresh leadership / new generation / etc.

Also, even had the quotes you shared came from Ayanna: emphasizing that diversity in Congress = good and that representation matters, so there might be some upside to a POC representing a majority-minority district is not anywhere close to "race-baiting." The reversal you suggested DOESN'T WORK because Congress is mostly white, so to say we need more whites in Congress is racist.

Black people are very well represented in the house already. 53 members of the house are black. There are 435 people in the house. 11.7% of house members are black, almost exactly the same as the US population as a whole.

If we want to talk about underrepresentation, Women are the better group to point to.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Pressley won off of blatant race baiting.

You have...never been to Massachusetts, I'm guessing? And didn't pay attention to this race when it was happening? I agree Pressley's message against Capuano (also very progressive) was not overly ideological, but it was nothing close to 'race-baiting.' Get outta here with that misinformation nonsense. Or show me one single shred of real evidence that she did anything of the sort?

MA born grandparents, MA born mother, several MA family members, visited several times. Unclear on the relevance either way, but all right. Now, on the actual subject? I don't know what else you can call running against an incumbent whom you yourself acknowledge little ideological difference between and campaigning simply on your race and gender.

"Pressley acknowledged there was little daylight between her and Capuano on policy, though she differentiated herself on the fate of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency and by not accepting corporate PAC money. But most of all, Pressley offered voters a different style of leadership, leaning heavily on her experiences as a black woman, casting her candidacy as a vote for change in a “fight for the soul of the Democratic Party.”

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/04/massachusetts-primary-capuano-pressley-807064

"A different type of race is taking shape in the Democratic primary for Massachusetts’s 7th Congressional District, a seat comprised of downtown Boston and surrounding suburbs. Though media outlets across the country have labeled the Pressley challenge in Massachusetts as the “next Ocasio-Cortez,” the race differs from other progressive challenges to entrenched Democrats: Pressley’s policy positions are frequently indistinguishable from her opponent."

“Congressman Mike Capuano has been a fine, progressive member of Congress, but having an experienced progressive like Ayanna Pressley on the ballot is an unmissable opportunity for Massachusetts to both ensure a leading woman of color represents its only majority-minority district and add the voice of just one person of color to New England’s currently all-white congressional delegation,” said Jim Dean, chair for Democracy for America, in a statement. Jonathan Cohn, co-chair of Progressive Massachusetts, explained that his group also endorsed Pressley over Capuano because of the “need for more diverse representation in Congress and the need for more activist leadership from Democrats in Congress.”

https://theintercept.com/2018/08/18/mike-capuano-ayanna-pressley-massachusetts-primary/

Now, before you say, "Oh, that wasn't REALLY race baiting" I'm just going to translate that into the Republican equivalent and get your reaction.

“Senator Tim Scott has been a fine, conservative member of Congress, but having an experienced patriotic conservative like [Insert White Person Here] on the ballot is an unmissable opportunity for South Carolina to elect a White American to Congress,” said Jim Dean, chair for Freedom for America, in a statement. Jonathan Roberts, co-chair of Heritage South Carolina, explained that his group also endorsed [White Person] over Scott because of the “need for more Caucasian-American and Southern Heritage oriented members of Congress."

Those are all news articles highlighting the importance of Pressley's race. "Jim Dean" is not Ayanna. I was asking you for a single shred of evidence that AYANNA or her official campaign apparatus engaged in any 'race-baiting.' As far as I can tell, Ayanna ran on a vague notion of fresh leadership / new generation / etc.

Also, even had the quotes you shared came from Ayanna: emphasizing that diversity in Congress = good and that representation matters, so there might be some upside to a POC representing a majority-minority district is not anywhere close to "race-baiting." The reversal you suggested DOESN'T WORK because Congress is mostly white, so to say we need more whites in Congress is racist.

But South Carolina is majority white, and so is our nation as a whole. Shouldn't by your standard they elect a Senator who fits their identity and demographics?