COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I thought the conclusion was that instead of being reinfected, some people just felt better and had a low enough viral load where they'd get a false negative back.

Which may very well be the case. (And I sincerely hope it is the case!) But these were people the Navy found to both definitively test negative and be well enough to be back on duty. Whether they were re-infected or had a relapse is beside the point. Either way, it runs contrary to the eagerly overconfident rush by amateurs to "you had it and tested negative, now you're 100% immune!"

[emailking]

WHO says there's 'no evidence' recovered coronavirus patients won't get reinfected

This WHO statement from weeks ago has been thoroughly discredited, as has every other early panicked headline about reinfection.

Every real shred of evidence (including the Science article posted in this thread earlier today) overwhelmingly supports practically universal immunity.

As of course, does the basic fact that we have 4.5 million confirmed infections and zero confirmed examples of reinfection; imagine what we’d say if a vaccine trial revealed zero infections among the first 4.5 million trials.

5 USS Roosevelt Sailors Test Positive For COVID-19, Again

The U.S. Navy says five sailors from the USS Theodore Roosevelt who had apparently recovered from the coronavirus and had received negative test results have now tested positive for a second time.

In a statement, the Navy said the sailors had "met rigorous recovery criteria, exceeding CDC guidelines," including testing negative for the virus at least twice, but have now retested positive. The statement said the sailors had been monitoring their health and adhered to social-distancing protocols while on board the Roosevelt, which has been docked in Guam following an outbreak infecting hundreds of crew members.

You were saying? (When you weren't ignoring the potential threat to children from the suggestion in your own earlier post.)

Are they sick though? There are people haven't had symptoms for months but keep testing positive.

[emailking]

I thought the conclusion was that instead of being reinfected, some people just felt better and had a low enough viral load where they'd get a false negative back.

Which may very well be the case. (And I sincerely hope it is the case!) But these were people the Navy found to both definitively test negative and be well enough to be back on duty. Whether they were re-infected or had a relapse is beside the point. Either way, it runs contrary to the eagerly overconfident rush by amateurs to "you had it and tested negative, now you're 100% immune!"

Fair enough.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I thought this article in Vox today was especially interesting.  it describes the failure of the very early and strict lockdowns in California to suppress the spread of the virus and death toll in that state.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/5/16/21254748/california-coronavirus-cases-lockdown

The most important part IMO is the last section, where is discusses why lockdowns appear to be succeeding in New York and New Jersey (and I would say, by extension, Italy and Spain) where they have failed in California and several other states:

A more discouraging explanation is that, since something like 15 percent of people in those states have now been exposed to the coronavirus, it’s easier to reduce transmission. A similarly strict stay-home order to California’s will do more to reduce transmission in a state where many people have already been infected. That interpretation would suggest that states can only get out of limbo at a horrific human price: New York has lost more than 25,000 people to the virus, and tens of thousands of others may suffer long-lasting effects.

Overall, this paints a scary picture; lockdowns alone, no matter how long they last, won’t save us.

It seems like the only solution, once we have passed the point of individual contact tracing, is a combination of social distancing restriction AND partial herd immunity.  

The evidence seems to show this doesn't need to be the complete herd immunity of 60-70% that many have suggested, if this factor is able to work in conjunction with social distancing.  It appears that a 10%-20% infection rate may be sufficient to dramatically slow the virus.  The focus now needs to be on how to efficiently achieve this infection rate while minimizing death and serious health consequences.  We can't just wait for hundreds of thousands more people to die with so little to show for it.

[TJ in Oregon]

I thought the conclusion was that instead of being reinfected, some people just felt better and had a low enough viral load where they'd get a false negative back.

Which may very well be the case. (And I sincerely hope it is the case!) But these were people the Navy found to both definitively test negative and be well enough to be back on duty. Whether they were re-infected or had a relapse is beside the point. Either way, it runs contrary to the eagerly overconfident rush by amateurs to "you had it and tested negative, now you're 100% immune!"

Fair enough.

Studies have shown some of the tests may have up to the 30% rate of false negatives. False positives are thought to be much rarer, but will obviously exist also. These will probably get better over time as we have more of a chance to tinker around with the testing. But yes, keep in mind that testing negative is not a guarantee of being recovered, especially if someone is still symptomatic.

[Tender Branson]

Important milestone:

No COVID-death in Austria in the past 24 hours.

[anvi]

The Vox article above indicates that California has had only about 50% compliance with stay-at-home orders.  There is no way curves will be "crushed" by mitigation procedures that have that have such a low compliance rate.  Lockdowns can only be effective when people observe them.

Anyway, there is still so much we do not know about CoV-19.  We don't know how to vaccinate against it or really treat it systematically.  We don't know how long immunity acquired through exposure lasts.  We don't know much about its mutation rate and patterns.  We still are not doing nearly enough initial testing or contact tracing, our serological tests are still not very accurate, and what immunity rates may presently exist are still quite low.  When most people are still as vulnerable as they are, and when we still know so little about this thing, opening things up to precipitously is like going for a walk during a firestorm.

[YE]

I thought this article in Vox today was especially interesting.  it describes the failure of the very early and strict lockdowns in California to suppress the spread of the virus and death toll in that state.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/5/16/21254748/california-coronavirus-cases-lockdown

The most important part IMO is the last section, where is discusses why lockdowns appear to be succeeding in New York and New Jersey (and I would say, by extension, Italy and Spain) where they have failed in California and several other states:

A more discouraging explanation is that, since something like 15 percent of people in those states have now been exposed to the coronavirus, it’s easier to reduce transmission. A similarly strict stay-home order to California’s will do more to reduce transmission in a state where many people have already been infected. That interpretation would suggest that states can only get out of limbo at a horrific human price: New York has lost more than 25,000 people to the virus, and tens of thousands of others may suffer long-lasting effects.

Overall, this paints a scary picture; lockdowns alone, no matter how long they last, won’t save us.

It seems like the only solution, once we have passed the point of individual contact tracing, is a combination of social distancing restriction AND partial herd immunity.  

The evidence seems to show this doesn't need to be the complete herd immunity of 60-70% that many have suggested, if this factor is able to work in conjunction with social distancing.  It appears that a 10%-20% infection rate may be sufficient to dramatically slow the virus.  The focus now needs to be on how to efficiently achieve this infection rate while minimizing death and serious health consequences.  We can't just wait for hundreds of thousands more people to die with so little to show for it.

This wouldn’t explain why New Zealand and Australia and Greece and a few other countries were strict lockdowns resulted in fast containment. Hell, this even seemed to work well in Montana.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1261787286368186369

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I thought this article in Vox today was especially interesting.  it describes the failure of the very early and strict lockdowns in California to suppress the spread of the virus and death toll in that state.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/5/16/21254748/california-coronavirus-cases-lockdown

The most important part IMO is the last section, where is discusses why lockdowns appear to be succeeding in New York and New Jersey (and I would say, by extension, Italy and Spain) where they have failed in California and several other states:

A more discouraging explanation is that, since something like 15 percent of people in those states have now been exposed to the coronavirus, it’s easier to reduce transmission. A similarly strict stay-home order to California’s will do more to reduce transmission in a state where many people have already been infected. That interpretation would suggest that states can only get out of limbo at a horrific human price: New York has lost more than 25,000 people to the virus, and tens of thousands of others may suffer long-lasting effects.

Overall, this paints a scary picture; lockdowns alone, no matter how long they last, won’t save us.

It seems like the only solution, once we have passed the point of individual contact tracing, is a combination of social distancing restriction AND partial herd immunity.  

The evidence seems to show this doesn't need to be the complete herd immunity of 60-70% that many have suggested, if this factor is able to work in conjunction with social distancing.  It appears that a 10%-20% infection rate may be sufficient to dramatically slow the virus.  The focus now needs to be on how to efficiently achieve this infection rate while minimizing death and serious health consequences.  We can't just wait for hundreds of thousands more people to die with so little to show for it.

This wouldn’t explain why New Zealand and Australia and Greece and a few other countries were strict lockdowns resulted in fast containment. Hell, this even seemed to work well in Montana.

I said “once you have past the point of individual contact tracing”.  It is true that several countries with very few cases have seemingly been able to eradicate the virus.  But that was never going to be possible in Califonia.  We also just don’t know if a lot of place just haven’t seen a surge in cases yet.  India locked their nation down early and was seemingly able to delay the spread for several weeks, but now cases and deaths there are exploding.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The Vox article above indicates that California has had only about 50% compliance with stay-at-home orders.  There is no way curves will be "crushed" by mitigation procedures that have that have such a low compliance rate.  Lockdowns can only be effective when people observe them.

Anyway, there is still so much we do not know about CoV-19.  We don't know how to vaccinate against it or really treat it systematically.  We don't know how long immunity acquired through exposure lasts.  We don't know much about its mutation rate and patterns.  We still are not doing nearly enough initial testing or contact tracing, our serological tests are still not very accurate, and what immunity rates may presently exist are still quite low.  When most people are still as vulnerable as they are, and when we still know so little about this thing, opening things up to precipitously is like going for a walk during a firestorm.

Just to be clear, I am -not- in favor of “opening things up”.

[The Free North]

The Vox article above indicates that California has had only about 50% compliance with stay-at-home orders.  There is no way curves will be "crushed" by mitigation procedures that have that have such a low compliance rate.  Lockdowns can only be effective when people observe them.

Anyway, there is still so much we do not know about CoV-19.  We don't know how to vaccinate against it or really treat it systematically.  We don't know how long immunity acquired through exposure lasts.  We don't know much about its mutation rate and patterns.  We still are not doing nearly enough initial testing or contact tracing, our serological tests are still not very accurate, and what immunity rates may presently exist are still quite low.  When most people are still as vulnerable as they are, and when we still know so little about this thing, opening things up to precipitously is like going for a walk during a firestorm.

People are rational actors. If there were mass graves being filled and bodies burned in the streets like 14th century Venice, everyone would stay home because their lives depended on it.

The fact that most people aren't afraid to go outside should tell you enough about the current state of affairs. An argument from ignorance here is not enough to prove the contrary, particularly given the economic ramifications of making everyone live inside forever.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

On one brighter note, it looks like Spain just saw their first day with under 100 deaths in over 2 months.

[SnowLabrador]

Over 1,000 people in my county have died. I'm really hoping I'm not going to be one of them.

[Brittain33]

From that article on Wisconsin, it looks like Dane County and Waukesha County are doing relatively better than others on cases given their large population. Combination of students staying home and white collar workers able to work remotely?

    4,759 in Milwaukee County
    2,070 in Brown County
    1,004 in Racine County
    820 in Kenosha County
    519 in Dane County 
    467 in Waukesha County
    422 in Rock County

[Grassroots]

This virus shows up at the perfect time to get Trump re-elected.

Explain?  This seems counterintuitive.  He can still win, but his path clearly seems harder now.

People will be too scared to vote in person, and mail-in voting is not going to be expanded.

A second wave likely won't hit until December so I don't think people will be too scared.

[Koharu]

From that article on Wisconsin, it looks like Dane County and Waukesha County are doing relatively better than others on cases given their large population. Combination of students staying home and white collar workers able to work remotely?

    4,759 in Milwaukee County
    2,070 in Brown County
    1,004 in Racine County
    820 in Kenosha County
    519 in Dane County 
    467 in Waukesha County
    422 in Rock County

Definitely part of it is the high number of workers able to work from home. In addition, the Madison & Dane County Public Health folks have been doing a lot of good work. Can't speak to Waukesha in that regard, though.

In regards to claims about this being tied to the order being knocked down by the Supreme Court, that only happened late in the day on the 13th, so I really don't think that's going to show up in the numbers yet. However, last weekend was an absolutely beautiful weekend and even in Dane county there were way more people out and about than previously, and that's a trend that continued all through this week. I would attribute the rise in cases to people getting burnt out and deciding to use less caution.

[HillGoose]

Trump needs to stop being a coward and assemble a coalition of the willing to turn their full might on the Chinese government in retaliation for all this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump needs to stop being a coward and assemble a coalition of the willing to turn their full might on the Chinese government in retaliation for all this.

Assuming, for the sake of argument, that such a course of action would be desirable, there is no way that other countries would follow Trump in such an endeavor.  He's squandered America's position as leader of the free world.

[GP270watch]

Behind North America’s Lowest Death Rate: A Doctor Who Fought Ebola


 Profile on Dr. Bonnie Henry a Canadian health official from British Columbia being praised for her campaign against Covid-19. Including fast distilling of information to doctors and health officials, quickly working up a test and testing procedures and commandeering nursing/care homes to stop the death rates there from spiraling out of control.

Henry is the first to caution against complacency. “We don’t know what is going to happen with this virus,” she said at a recent briefing, where she underscored how the province could quickly lose all the gains it’d made by easing restrictions too far. “We need to hold the line.”

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump needs to stop being a coward and assemble a coalition of the willing to turn their full might on the Chinese government in retaliation for all this.

For some reason, I doubt the PRC government is very concerned about your scenario.

[It’s so Joever]

The Vox article above indicates that California has had only about 50% compliance with stay-at-home orders.  There is no way curves will be "crushed" by mitigation procedures that have that have such a low compliance rate.  Lockdowns can only be effective when people observe them.

Anyway, there is still so much we do not know about CoV-19.  We don't know how to vaccinate against it or really treat it systematically.  We don't know how long immunity acquired through exposure lasts.  We don't know much about its mutation rate and patterns.  We still are not doing nearly enough initial testing or contact tracing, our serological tests are still not very accurate, and what immunity rates may presently exist are still quite low.  When most people are still as vulnerable as they are, and when we still know so little about this thing, opening things up to precipitously is like going for a walk during a firestorm.

Exactly!
The lack of lockdown enforcement over the past six weeks has been outrageous! Of course, our governors are too scared to enforce the laws they make out of fear of angering a few angry cultists.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1261787286368186369

There's zero chance that any impact of that decision would register in the data yet.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Only 100 new cases in Tennessee today (including 0 in my county).  Granted testing was down, but the % positive rate was only 1.97%.  We've mostly been in the 3-4% range, which is well better than the rest of the nation, but today's look good.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Ugh, New York is reporting 190 deaths today compared to just 41 last Sunday.  California reporting 53 today compared to 26 last Sunday.  We are already nearing the nationwide death totals from last Sunday, and Illinois, Massachusetts, and Michigan all have yet to report anything.  Perhaps any optimism about a longer term decline was premature.