COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Increasing case numbers are a good thing right now, because they indicate increased testing.  We’re still probably only catching maybe 10% of the actual cases that are out there.

Testing is way up:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-covid-19-tests-per-day?time=2020-03-08..&country=USA

I'm absolutely certain the prevalence of this virus in the U.S. is far lower than it was 3 weeks ago. Testing has gotten so much better.

[Calthrina950]

Expanding upon masks, it looks like Delaware is now the latest state to require its residents to wear masks in public: https://www.fox29.com/news/delaware-residents-employees-ordered-to-wear-masks-in-public-starting-tuesday. Like Colorado, it has also mandated mask-wearing for essential employees. One commonality I notice is that all states which have made mask-wearing mandatory in some form have Democratic governors. Is this an indicator of how seriously they are taking things, compared to Republicans? Or what else?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Expanding upon masks, it looks like Delaware is now the latest state to require its residents to wear masks in public: https://www.fox29.com/news/delaware-residents-employees-ordered-to-wear-masks-in-public-starting-tuesday. Like Colorado, it has also mandated mask-wearing for essential employees. One commonality I notice is that all states which have made mask-wearing mandatory in some form have Democratic governors. Is this an indicator of how seriously they are taking things, compared to Republicans? Or what else?

I hate it when news outlets say "in public." That implies every public park or roadway - instead of just buses and retail stores.

[Calthrina950]

Expanding upon masks, it looks like Delaware is now the latest state to require its residents to wear masks in public: https://www.fox29.com/news/delaware-residents-employees-ordered-to-wear-masks-in-public-starting-tuesday. Like Colorado, it has also mandated mask-wearing for essential employees. One commonality I notice is that all states which have made mask-wearing mandatory in some form have Democratic governors. Is this an indicator of how seriously they are taking things, compared to Republicans? Or what else?

I hate it when news outlets say "in public." That implies every public park or roadway - instead of just buses and retail stores.

The article itself says "in public spaces." So that means grocery stores, pharmacies, convenience stores, doctor's offices, and public transportation. And businesses are required to turn away customers not wearing a mask. While I think mask advisories are acceptable, I'm leery of state efforts to mandate them. What is your opinion of it? How widespread is it in Kentucky?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The article itself says "in public spaces." So that means grocery stores, pharmacies, convenience stores, doctor's offices, and public transportation. And businesses are required to turn away customers not wearing a mask. While I think mask advisories are acceptable, I'm leery of state efforts to mandate them. What is your opinion of it? How widespread is it in Kentucky?

Around here, about 1 in 20 people wear masks. I don't like the efforts to mandate them, simply because it defies the WHO's advice. I don't think it's even realistic for people to wear masks outdoors anyway, especially if they're over 6 feet from other people.

I don't even have one. I think I'll be able to get a bandana though, but any building that requires one is probably one where I shouldn't be unless it's absolutely necessary.

[Calthrina950]

The article itself says "in public spaces." So that means grocery stores, pharmacies, convenience stores, doctor's offices, and public transportation. And businesses are required to turn away customers not wearing a mask. While I think mask advisories are acceptable, I'm leery of state efforts to mandate them. What is your opinion of it? How widespread is it in Kentucky?

Around here, about 1 in 20 people wear masks. I don't like the efforts to mandate them, simply because it defies the WHO's advice. I don't think it's even realistic for people to wear masks outdoors anyway, especially if they're over 6 feet from other people.

I don't even have one. I think I'll be able to get a bandana though, but any building that requires one is probably one where I shouldn't be unless it's absolutely necessary.

There's a definite contrast between Kentucky and here. But it'll be interesting to see if any other states jump on that train. What I find interesting is that a hundred years ago, during the Spanish Flu, San Francisco, Seattle, and many other cities mandated mask wearing in public spaces. So this is not the first time its happened in this country. But of course, the Spanish Flu was generations ago, and the only people who may have any living memory of it are centenarians now.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/25 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>

4/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13:

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

4/14:

• Cases: 613,886 (+26,945 | Δ Change: ↑1.23% | Σ Increase: ↑4.59%)
• Deaths: 26,047 (+2,407 | Δ Change: ↑57.11% | Σ Increase: ↑10.18%)

4/15:

• Cases: 644,089 (+30,203 | Δ Change: ↑12.09% | Σ Increase: ↑4.92%)
• Deaths: 28,529 (+2,482 | Δ Change: ↑3.12% | Σ Increase: ↑9.53%)

4/16: <Missing Older Cases & Deaths Added / Δ Change Calculations Misleading>

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

4/17: <Δ Change Calculations Based on 4/15>

• Cases: 709,735 (+32,165 | Δ Change: ↑6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑4.09%)
• Deaths: 37,154 (+2,537 | Δ Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑7.33%)

4/18:

• Cases: 738,830 (+29,095 | Δ Change: ↓9.54% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 39,014 (+1,860 | Δ Change: ↓26.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.01%)

4/19: <Sunday>

• Cases: 764,303 (+25,473 | Δ Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑3.45%)
• Deaths: 40,548 (+1,534 | Δ Change: ↓17.53% | Σ Increase: ↑3.93%)

4/20:

• Cases: 792,759 (+28,456 | Δ Change: ↑11.71% | Σ Increase: ↑3.28%)
• Deaths: 42,514 (+1,966 | Δ Change: ↑28.16% | Σ Increase: ↑4.85%)

4/21:

• Cases: 818,744 (+25,985 | Δ Change: ↓8.68% | Σ Increase: ↑3.72%)
• Deaths: 45,318 (+2,804 | Δ Change: ↑42.62% | Σ Increase: ↑6.60%)

4/22:

• Cases: 848,555 (+29,811 | Δ Change: ↑14.72% | Σ Increase: ↑3.64%)
• Deaths: 47,654 (+2,336 | Δ Change: ↓16.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)

4/23:

• Cases: 880,204 (+31,649 | Δ Change: ↑6.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.73%)
• Deaths: 49,845 (+2,191 | Δ Change: ↓6.21% | Σ Increase: ↑4.60%)

4/24 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 925,038 (+44,834 | Δ Change: ↑41.70% | Σ Increase: ↑5.09%)
• Deaths: 52,185 (+2,340 | Δ Change: ↑6.80% | Σ Increase: ↑4.69%)

4/25 (Today):

• Cases: 960,651 (+35,613 | Δ Change: ↓20.57% | Σ Increase: ↑3.85%)
• Deaths: 54,256 (+2,071 | Δ Change: ↓11.50% | Σ Increase: ↑3.97%)

[emailking]

Around here, about 1 in 20 people wear masks. I don't like the efforts to mandate them, simply because it defies the WHO's advice. I don't think it's even realistic for people to wear masks outdoors anyway, especially if they're over 6 feet from other people.

I don't think it can hurt anything to wear masks. Nowhere is requiring medical grade masks for the general public. It's easy to make one from a shirt. You can also get cheap ones on ebay.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I decipher this as meaning that he's gonna stop giving coronavirus press briefings from now on? Well, thank God if this is the case.


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1254168730898173953

Somebody had to carefully explain to him that the more he gets in front of the camera and opens his mouth, the more his approval ratings and his polling numbers vs. Biden continue to dive.  This tweet is his typical piss-ant way of acquiescing to that advice, at long last.

We'll see how long he lasts watching Pence and Dr. Fauci getting all the attention for an hour every day.

Especially with reporting like this piece from NBC News,

After nearly 50 coronavirus press briefings in March and April, President Donald Trump’s aides and allies are increasingly worried that his lengthy appearances are backfiring politically and White House officials say they are evaluating whether to reduce his participation in news conferences in the weeks to come.

[emailking]

Now more than ten 9/11's plus Pearl Harbors.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Numbers for USA updated:



USA 25 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 496,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 295,000

The USA dataset on Worldometers has changed by including the recoveries into the previous Active Case data.

That is, someone has back-dated recoveries into the old numbers, so all of the numbers on their website over the last 50-60 days have changed slightly. The US only report one number for recoveries. Nothing daily. And the UK reports nothing at all.

This is exactly how the above graphs are generated, so it's not a problem. I just had to remove 30,000 recoveries from the calc.

When plotted with these new data, then we get the above graph which shows a new peak to the right of April 24 at just under 500,000 Active Cases.

For Australia we have:



Australia 25 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 5,068 – April 5
Recoveries added to curve – 330

Australia has equivalent lockdowns to the USA. We actually have stricter lockdowns in Western Australia again. Here are the latest tested positives from yesterday:



We have had a very hot autumn, strict social lockdowns and travel restirctions. This has really helped with low community transmission.

It foreshadows a dramatic improvement in the USA case numbers when you guys head into June.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Somebody had to carefully explain to him that the more he gets in front of the camera and opens his mouth, the more his approval ratings and his polling numbers vs. Biden continue to dive.

What do they say?

"Better to let people think you are an idiot than open your mouth and prove it."

I think you are on the money. The President needs to tone it down as his area of expertise is clearly not medical science.

[Calthrina950]

I overlooked Michigan. Governor Whitmer is also requiring her state's residents to wear masks in public spaces: https://www.wndu.com/content/news/Michigans-governor-extends-stay-home-order-through-May-15-eases-rules-569918961.html. So that means we now have seven states (CT, DE, MD, MI, NJ, NY, PA) that require masks in public spaces. A correction is due to my earlier post, as I overlooked Governor Hogan in Maryland. With the exception of him, all other governors requiring masks in public spaces are Democrats. Again, I'm interested to see if masks will become a near-universal requirement, like the stay-at-home orders did.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I overlooked Michigan. Governor Whitmer is also requiring her state's residents to wear masks in public spaces: https://www.wndu.com/content/news/Michigans-governor-extends-stay-home-order-through-May-15-eases-rules-569918961.html. So that means we now have six states (CT, DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA) that require masks in public spaces. A correction is due to my earlier post, as I overlooked Governor Hogan in Maryland. With the exception of him, all other governors requiring masks in public spaces are Democrats. Again, I'm interested to see if masks will become a near-universal requirement, like the stay-at-home orders did.

they should be making face masks mandatory in as many places as possible.

[jimrtex]

According to the university of Maryland impact analysis platform you can see data on who is social distancing by state and county. http://data.covid.umd.edu

Pretty non-sensical.

Those in Manhattan travel relatively short distances packed into subways. Someone in Wyoming drives 50 miles to work in their truck by themselves.

[emailking]

I overlooked Michigan. Governor Whitmer is also requiring her state's residents to wear masks in public spaces: https://www.wndu.com/content/news/Michigans-governor-extends-stay-home-order-through-May-15-eases-rules-569918961.html. So that means we now have six states (CT, DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA) that require masks in public spaces. A correction is due to my earlier post, as I overlooked Governor Hogan in Maryland. With the exception of him, all other governors requiring masks in public spaces are Democrats. Again, I'm interested to see if masks will become a near-universal requirement, like the stay-at-home orders did.

Aren't most of these orders with the caveat that a mask is only required (in general) when 6 feet cannot be maintained?

[Calthrina950]

I overlooked Michigan. Governor Whitmer is also requiring her state's residents to wear masks in public spaces: https://www.wndu.com/content/news/Michigans-governor-extends-stay-home-order-through-May-15-eases-rules-569918961.html. So that means we now have six states (CT, DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA) that require masks in public spaces. A correction is due to my earlier post, as I overlooked Governor Hogan in Maryland. With the exception of him, all other governors requiring masks in public spaces are Democrats. Again, I'm interested to see if masks will become a near-universal requirement, like the stay-at-home orders did.

Aren't most of these orders with the caveat that a mask is only required (in general) when 6 feet cannot be maintained?

Many of these orders do include that caveat, where "social distancing is impossible", but it doesn't change the overall context involved. And again, an order-such as what these states have issued-is very different from a advisory, such as that issued in Colorado for the general public. As I noted above, Delaware is requiring businesses to turn back customers who do not wear masks.

I overlooked Michigan. Governor Whitmer is also requiring her state's residents to wear masks in public spaces: https://www.wndu.com/content/news/Michigans-governor-extends-stay-home-order-through-May-15-eases-rules-569918961.html. So that means we now have six states (CT, DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA) that require masks in public spaces. A correction is due to my earlier post, as I overlooked Governor Hogan in Maryland. With the exception of him, all other governors requiring masks in public spaces are Democrats. Again, I'm interested to see if masks will become a near-universal requirement, like the stay-at-home orders did.

they should be making face masks mandatory in as many places as possible.

I understand your position, particularly as someone who has battled, and successfully recovered from (and I'm very happy that you have), this nefarious disease. But understand that you are always going to have that segment of the population which will rebel against an order such as this one, and I think that the implementation of other social distancing procedures can compensate for such issues. I certainly do think that essential employees ought to wear them (as they are in Colorado), and people in general should be encouraged to wear them. But making it mandatory raises legal and other issues that should be avoided.

[Beet]

According to the university of Maryland impact analysis platform you can see data on who is social distancing by state and county. http://data.covid.umd.edu

Pretty non-sensical.

Those in Manhattan travel relatively short distances packed into subways. Someone in Wyoming drives 50 miles to work in their truck by themselves.

The index is calculated on a relative basis. Those who normally travel longer distances are not penalized for continuing to do so.

Traveling alone in you truck may be a safer practice, but it doesn't really count as "social distancing" to keep doing the same thing you were before.

[BlueSwan]

Can we just ponder how amazingly wrong the 60k projection was. At current rate, 60k gets crossed within the next three days with no end in sight.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Can we just ponder how amazingly wrong the 60k projection was. At current rate, 60k gets crossed within the next three days with no end in sight.

Yes, all of the “flatten the curve” models that were used to justify our strategy have proven incredible wrong in their most basic assumptions.  Plenty of people were was willing to acknowledge how little we know about the virus.  But no one was willing to acknowledge that this might mean we would need a “Plan B” if the lockdowns didn’t work.

[Calthrina950]

Can we just ponder how amazingly wrong the 60k projection was. At current rate, 60k gets crossed within the next three days with no end in sight.

Yes, all of the “flatten the curve” models that were used to justify our strategy have proven incredible wrong in their most basic assumptions.  Plenty of people were was willing to acknowledge how little we know about the virus.  But no one was willing to acknowledge that this might mean we would need a “Plan B” if the lockdowns didn’t work.

And what do you think "Plan B" would look like?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Can we just ponder how amazingly wrong the 60k projection was. At current rate, 60k gets crossed within the next three days with no end in sight.

Yes, all of the “flatten the curve” models that were used to justify our strategy have proven incredible wrong in their most basic assumptions.  Plenty of people were was willing to acknowledge how little we know about the virus.  But no one was willing to acknowledge that this might mean we would need a “Plan B” if the lockdowns didn’t work.

And what do you think "Plan B" would look like?

In broad terms, in areas where the healthcare system is not at risk of breaking down, implement very strict quarantines for vulnerable members of the populations while encouraging the rest of the population to be deliberately infected with an attenuated strain of the virus (though probably not all at once).  People should be quarantined after infection for a few weeks, but issued an immunity certificate after recovery that frees them of all restrictions.  You can lift the quarantines on the vulnerable population once herd immunity to achieved.

This is basically what is going to happen anyway in heavily affected countries, it’s just going to take a lot longer and result in more deaths if the general lockdowns continue.

What is your Plan B if the lockdowns fail?

[Calthrina950]

Can we just ponder how amazingly wrong the 60k projection was. At current rate, 60k gets crossed within the next three days with no end in sight.

Yes, all of the “flatten the curve” models that were used to justify our strategy have proven incredible wrong in their most basic assumptions.  Plenty of people were was willing to acknowledge how little we know about the virus.  But no one was willing to acknowledge that this might mean we would need a “Plan B” if the lockdowns didn’t work.

And what do you think "Plan B" would look like?

In broad terms, in areas where the healthcare system is not at risk of breaking down, implement very strict quarantines for vulnerable members of the populations while encouraging the rest of the population to be deliberately infected with an attenuated strain of the virus (though probably not all at once).  People should be quarantined after infection for a few weeks, but issued an immunity certificate after recovery that frees them of all restrictions.  You can lift the quarantines on the vulnerable population once herd immunity to achieved.

This is basically what is going to happen anyway in heavily affected countries, it’s just going to take a lot longer and result in more deaths if the general lockdowns continue.

What is your Plan B if the lockdowns fail?

Well, I certainly don't think the lockdowns can last longer beyond June, and we need to have a framework for reopening the economy. I would support something similar to the "Safer At Home" approach which Polis has proposed in my state, with a focus on maintaining social distancing, promoting sanitary practices, regulating store capacity/safety, and encouraging (but not mandating) the use of masks and the like. We need to continue expanding our testing apparatus, and I would support the idea of quarantining and contact tracing those who are ill with the virus, particularly those in nursing homes and among the most vulnerable populations. I will readily acknowledge that we haven't had the most effective response to this pandemic, not by any means, and the incompetence of our President is a factor in that. Hence, we should be willing to embrace new solutions if need be.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

According to the university of Maryland impact analysis platform you can see data on who is social distancing by state and county. http://data.covid.umd.edu

Pretty non-sensical.

Those in Manhattan travel relatively short distances packed into subways. Someone in Wyoming drives 50 miles to work in their truck by themselves.

The index is calculated on a relative basis. Those who normally travel longer distances are not penalized for continuing to do so.

Traveling alone in you truck may be a safer practice, but it doesn't really count as "social distancing" to keep doing the same thing you were before.

Distance traveled is in no way an accurate proxy for social distancing. 
My neighbors have a party with twenty or thirty people a few times a week. It doesn't matter if those people came a few blocks or fifteen miles to get there.  When I go out by myself, it doesn't matter if I go somewhere in walking distance or go forty miles.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

When I first saw Trump's allies in the media saying "Fake news, he never said 'inject yourself with bleach!'" I first wrote it off as the usual lying and gaslighting they do. But I thought more about it, and I realized this was their way of protecting their lives of their viewers, who uncritically follow Trump's advice... their was no ideologically approved space for them to contradict the President or allege he could possibly be wrong, but they knew people would die if they said nothing, so pinning it on the media was their way of helping their viewers without appearing to disrespect Trump.

How about he literally never told people to inject themselves with bleach - Why isn't that enough?  He said injecting with disinfectant was something doctors should look into.  It was a confused statement from him but he wasn't instructing people to do something dangerous.

It's almost as if some people want to spread the idea that Trump told people to drink bleach in hopes that some Trump fan will actually do it and it will make Trump look bad.