COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I just read a tweet saying that Trump told people to inject disinfectants, is that true?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Before anyone frets too much about the numbers today from Massachusetts:

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/coronavirus/another-178-coronavirus-deaths-reported-in-massachusetts-and-3079-more-cases/2112737

Massachusetts just tested twice as many people as they ever have before. That's how they got such a big number today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just read a tweet saying that Trump told people to inject disinfectants, is that true?

Yes.  Watch the clip in the Josh Marshall tweet a few replies up.

[Holmes]

Anyway my mother-in-law tested positive today. Fever and aches. She drove by our place last Sunday to give us things like soap and water so there was contact. Fun. Also my grandmother-in-law also has a bad fever.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Did Trump just suggest injecting isopropanol into your veins?

What in the actual ****

https://twitter.com/reckless/status/1253449320436764674

[It’s so Joever]

Colorado update:
Looks like Colorado’s case growth is still in the 250-400 range, although the downward trend appears to have stopped. 384 new cases were reported today.
Meanwhile, in a bit of good news, Denver county has extended the stay-at-home order. Hopefully the Tri-County Health Department+Jeffco and Boulder do the same.

Of the current Covid cases in Colorado, 8398 are in the Denver-Boulder-Greeley CSA. This is about 74.5% of Colorado’s cases.
Expect a large death increase soon, due to a backlog.
Polis also recently promised Colorado hundreds of thousands new Covid-19 tests. Considering his previous testing promises, I estimate these tests will arrive in January of 2027.
Also, alcoholic beverages are now forbidden in Denver parks.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I just read a tweet saying that Trump told people to inject disinfectants, is that true?

Yes.  Watch the clip in the Josh Marshall tweet a few replies up.

It baffles me how any rational person can hear stuff like this and think this guy should be in charge for another four years.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/23 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>

4/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13:

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

4/14:

• Cases: 613,886 (+26,945 | Δ Change: ↑1.23% | Σ Increase: ↑4.59%)
• Deaths: 26,047 (+2,407 | Δ Change: ↑57.11% | Σ Increase: ↑10.18%)

4/15:

• Cases: 644,089 (+30,203 | Δ Change: ↑12.09% | Σ Increase: ↑4.92%)
• Deaths: 28,529 (+2,482 | Δ Change: ↑3.12% | Σ Increase: ↑9.53%)

4/16: <Missing Older Cases & Deaths Added / Δ Change Calculations Misleading>

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

4/17: <Δ Change Calculations Based on 4/15>

• Cases: 709,735 (+32,165 | Δ Change: ↑6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑4.09%)
• Deaths: 37,154 (+2,537 | Δ Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑7.33%)

4/18:

• Cases: 738,830 (+29,095 | Δ Change: ↓9.54% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 39,014 (+1,860 | Δ Change: ↓26.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.01%)

4/19: <Sunday>

• Cases: 764,303 (+25,473 | Δ Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑3.45%)
• Deaths: 40,548 (+1,534 | Δ Change: ↓17.53% | Σ Increase: ↑3.93%)

4/20:

• Cases: 792,759 (+28,456 | Δ Change: ↑11.71% | Σ Increase: ↑3.28%)
• Deaths: 42,514 (+1,966 | Δ Change: ↑28.16% | Σ Increase: ↑4.85%)

4/21:

• Cases: 818,744 (+25,985 | Δ Change: ↓8.68% | Σ Increase: ↑3.72%)
• Deaths: 45,318 (+2,804 | Δ Change: ↑42.62% | Σ Increase: ↑6.60%)

4/22 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 848,555 (+29,811 | Δ Change: ↑14.72% | Σ Increase: ↑3.64%)
• Deaths: 47,654 (+2,336 | Δ Change: ↓16.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)

4/23 (Today):

• Cases: 880,204 (+31,649 | Δ Change: ↑6.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.73%)
• Deaths: 49,845 (+2,191 | Δ Change: ↓6.21% | Σ Increase: ↑4.60%)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Update cumulative European case/death graphs (5-day weighted averages).  For the first time, daily US deaths are exceeding the sum of the five big Western European nations.

[Bidenworth2020]

what happened to my "tone" people?

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Someone texted me and asked me what the graphs look like if I don't add recoveries. These are here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

They are simply not being added. In fact, one day, Worldometers will just add 250,000, and the graph will suddenly plummet.

But when the predicted recoveries for today are added with a smoothed distribution back through time, we get:



Active Cases in USA - 23rd April 2020
Predicted Peak of 456,646 Active cases on April 20 2020.
310,000 Recoveries added.

Dr Birx said today that hospitalisation rates in New York, Detroit and other areas was starting to decrease which would match this data. Active cases would correlate roughly with hospital bed usage. She also said that New York counts for 45% of cases in the USA, so the fact is that if New York is falling, it is unlikely that you will see a peak larger than this one anytime soon.

As another example, we have Australia. On Worldometers, we get:



Because of the poor addition of recoveries to the database, the graph has major issues. Firstly, the left side is flat in growth. This should be steeper than the right side as in normal pandemic graphs. Secondly, this is really of no benefit if the data is not presented correctly for curve matching and predictive analysis.

If you redistribute the recoveries as was done for the USA using the difference between Active Cases today vs Active cases 2 weeks ago, you get this:



Active Cases in Australia - 23rd April 2020
Predicted Peak of 3,491 Active cases on April 3 2020.
470 Recoveries added.

So that graph is actually useful for interpretation and is more reflective of what actually happened in Australia regardless of the poor reporting or cases and recoveries.

Turning back to the USA, the downslope will most likely be less steep than the growth phase in Active Cases. So around mid-June, we should see Active Cases at around 10% of their peak.

My predicted decay in Active cases by 90% by May 31 for the USA are very optimistic and do not factor in any further outbreaks.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'm ashamed to be American when the Dear Leader says we need to be irradiated and injected with bleach and says it with such a serious tone...

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The analysis in the Berkeley Italian death records paper suggests that the IFR of the virus roughly increases tenfold with every 20 years of age.

So a 90-year old has about a 10% chance of dying; a 70-year has a 1% chance; a 50-year old has a 0.1% chance; and a 30-year old has a 0.01% chance of dying if infected.  (Obviously this is not exact.)

[Dr. Arch]

I'm ashamed to be American when the Dear Leader says we need to be irradiated and injected with bleach and says it with such a serious tone...

  I'm at a loss for words. I share your pain, my friend.

[GP270watch]

 This is such an embarrassment. What the hell is this crap?

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1253455713034211328

[Dr. Arch]

This is such an embarrassment. What the hell is this crap?

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1253455713034211328

To anyone who still supports this guy, this is your wake-up call. Look at this. We deserve better than this.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The analysis in the Berkeley Italian death records paper suggests that the IFR of the virus roughly increases tenfold with every 20 years of age.

So a 90-year old has about a 10% chance of dying; a 70-year has a 1% chance; a 50-year old has a 0.1% chance; and a 30-year old has a 0.01% chance of dying if infected.  (Obviously this is not exact.)

These are called age-mortality curves.

When you go to an Oncologist, they may show you age-mortality curves based on research for the cancer you have been diagnosed with.

Based on your age, and you chances of survival, the amount and type of treatment (chemotherapy) is presented before you begin based on your age.

From my research on mortality curves from Lung Cancer, my only take was 'dont smoke after 60 years of age'.

This is a very common style of data presentation based on statistical analysis.

[emailking]

It's not clear to me that we're going down. If you start at March 31 and fit a curve to now it has a negative slope, yes. If you start at April 9, it's almost flat.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

It's not clear to me that we're going down. If you start at March 31 and fit a curve to now it has a negative slope, yes. If you start at April 9, it's almost flat.

That's when people started protesting stay at home orders and data suggests there was a bit of an uptick of people going up, and then a small spike when Wisconsin voted.

[It’s so Joever]

Not sure if this has been posted before, but apparently blood clots are a cause of death in some Covid patients.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/coronavirus-blood-clots.html

[Meclazine for Israel]

This is such an embarrassment. What the hell is this crap?

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1253455713034211328

For anyone who still supports this guy, this is your wake-up call. Look at this. We deserve better than this.

Donald Trump actually predicted that the left-wing media will report him as misconstruing his enthusiasm for the results about UV sunlight and alcohols' effect on the Corona-virus.

It was not that bad if anyone watched the briefing. Donald was asking Dr Birx great questions about how best to use these new results.

The media was very excited about the results and asked a great question about sunlight.

"If sunlight is so great, then should we ask people to go outside more to avoid infection?"

We are not getting any interesting scientific discussion of these new results here. We are getting the "Tweet - I Hate Trump" brigade hijacking the thread daily with their political bent and missing some of the really interesting outcomes that were discussed today.

The effect of summer heat and humidity is worth discussing.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

This is such an embarrassment. What the hell is this crap?

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1253455713034211328

For anyone who still supports this guy, this is your wake-up call. Look at this. We deserve better than this.

Donald Trump actually predicted that the left-wing media will report him as misconstruing his enthusiasm for the results about UV sunlight and alcohols' effect on the Corona-virus.

It was not that bad if anyone watched the briefing. Donald was asking Dr Birx great questions about how best to use these new results.

The media was very excited about the results and asked a great question about sunlight.

"If sunlight is so great, then should we ask people to go outside more to avoid infection?"

We are not getting any interesting scientific discussion of these new results here. We are getting the "Tweet - I Hate Trump" brigade hijacking the thread daily with their political bent and missing some of the really interesting outcomes that were discussed today.

The effect of summer heat and humidity is worth discussing.

Even Birx was looking a bit angered by those comments, she was not happy with them at all.

[Dr. Arch]

This is such an embarrassment. What the hell is this crap?

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1253455713034211328

For anyone who still supports this guy, this is your wake-up call. Look at this. We deserve better than this.

Donald Trump actually predicted that the left-wing media will report him as misconstruing his enthusiasm for the results about UV sunlight and alcohols' effect on the Corona-virus.

It was not that bad if anyone watched the briefing. Donald was asking Dr Birx great questions about how best to use these new results.

The media was very excited about the results and asked a great question about sunlight.

"If sunlight is so great, then should we ask people to go outside more to avoid infection?"

We are not getting any interesting scientific discussion of these new results here. We are getting the "Tweet - I Hate Trump" brigade hijacking the thread daily with their political bent and missing some of the really interesting outcomes that were discussed today.

The effect of summer heat and humidity is worth discussing.

I'll let him speak for himself. Look at this ridiculousness. I don't need any media to tell me anything. Look at it. Read it. REALLY read it.

"I see the disenfectant knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we could do something like that? By... injection inside or... almost a cleaning, cause you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number and so I'd be interested to check that"

This is from a press briefing on a national health crisis from the POTUS. Are you kidding me? Look at this guy.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's not clear to me that we're going down. If you start at March 31 and fit a curve to now it has a negative slope, yes. If you start at April 9, it's almost flat.

There are places where the curve is gradually going down and places where it isn’t.  The troubling thing is that there is no evidence to me that the lockdowns themselves are causing the curves to go down in those places.  These tend to be the places that were already hardest hit, where the decline could purely be attributable to progress toward herd immunity. (I.e. If the curve has declined 25% in NYC, that could just be because 25% of NYC residents were already infected and are now immune.)

[Meclazine for Israel]

For Arch, I get it, but the President knows he is not a doctor. The actual context was not as bad live when he said it. He was just being excited about the results, and they are exciting developments.

As for TSA's commentary, even through Dr Birx and Dr Fauci sometimes cringe about Donald, over the last week, I have noticed a level of disdain from all 5 or 6 doctors against the media.

There has definitely been a shift in the Doctors attitude to the level of misinformation that the media is responsible for. Dr Fauci and the Surgeon General have both got up and expressed concern for being reported correctly.

The doctors need to be quoted correctly, and they are struggling to get good air time.

Unfortunately, in this instance, Trump said something (as was correctly quoted by Arch) completely stupid, and none of the reporting of the actual real scientific results are being discussed.