COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Calthrina950]

With the rate that states are going, this is going to be a continued outright pandemic for months ahead with more cases and more deaths. It's shameful.

What is your timeline for reopening the economy? A shutdown lasting for several months is unsustainable.

The economy shouldn't reopen until June IMO. The nation still doesn't have a clear handle on this, and people need to stop prioritizing the economy over lives. If the economy reopens too soon, which it feels like it is, then we are going to have more and more loss of life. Not to mention when you have states like Georgia which aren't even following the "powerpoint" that Trump's admin set up, and are just straight up reopening everything like nothing happened.

I certainly do not condone what Kemp is doing, and Georgia will reap the consequences of his actions. And I think that many other Governors have been utterly reckless with regards to what they have done-i.e. Kristi Noem in South Dakota, who is still refusing to issue a stay-at-home order, and Ron DeSantis in Florida, who dithered until it almost too late and is now starting to backtrack. I've also noted above that I think June would be an optimal time to resume economic activity. However, the situation is not the same in all states, and in some (i.e. Ohio, Washington) where the curve has flattened and where actions were taken from the beginning to address the pandemic, it may be warranted to begin opening things up earlier. And aside from Georgia, most other states that are starting to reopen are doing so with precautions in place, and in stages.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Latest cumulative European new case & death graphs (5-day weighted averages):




This week was actually pretty promising in Europe overall, with substantial week-over-week declines in cases for at least the last two weeks everywhere except UK.  Deaths have also declined week-over-week in all five countries, though the pace of decline has been slower.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'm surprised that Polis decided not to extend the order, and he seems to be taking the concerns about the economy seriously enough. But then again, he has been one of the most cautious and measured out of all the Governors in terms of the actions which he has taken, and certainly more so than most other Democrats, so it shouldn't be that much of a surprise. And he is a businessman, so he can perhaps sympathize with those concerned about the bottom line.

That's the opposite of cautious.

[Grassroots]

With the rate that states are going, this is going to be a continued outright pandemic for months ahead with more cases and more deaths. It's shameful.

As a person who checks the case numbers for almost every state every single day, we could see an end to this by mid may in most states.

But the alarmists won't tell you that.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/20 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>

4/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7:

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8:

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

4/9:

• Cases: 468,566 (+33,868 | Δ Change: ↓2.57% | Σ Increase: ↑7.79%)
• Deaths: 16,691 (+1,904 | Δ Change: ↓3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑12.88%)

4/10:

• Cases: 502,318 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↓0.34% | Σ Increase: ↑7.20%)
• Deaths: 18,725 (+2,034 | Δ Change: ↑6.83% | Σ Increase: ↑12.19%)

4/11:

• Cases: 532,879 (+30,561 | Δ Change: ↓9.45% | Σ Increase: ↑6.08%)
• Deaths: 20,577 (+1,852 | Δ Change: ↓8.95% | Σ Increase: ↑9.89%)

4/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13:

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

4/14:

• Cases: 613,886 (+26,945 | Δ Change: ↑1.23% | Σ Increase: ↑4.59%)
• Deaths: 26,047 (+2,407 | Δ Change: ↑57.11% | Σ Increase: ↑10.18%)

4/15:

• Cases: 644,089 (+30,203 | Δ Change: ↑12.09% | Σ Increase: ↑4.92%)
• Deaths: 28,529 (+2,482 | Δ Change: ↑3.12% | Σ Increase: ↑9.53%)

4/16: <Missing Older Cases & Deaths Added / Δ Change Calculations Misleading>

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

4/17: <Δ Change Calculations Based on 4/15>

• Cases: 709,735 (+32,165 | Δ Change: ↑6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑4.09%)
• Deaths: 37,154 (+2,537 | Δ Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑7.33%)

4/18:

• Cases: 738,830 (+29,095 | Δ Change: ↓9.54% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 39,014 (+1,860 | Δ Change: ↓26.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.01%)

4/19 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 764,303 (+25,473 | Δ Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑3.45%)
• Deaths: 40,548 (+1,534 | Δ Change: ↓17.53% | Σ Increase: ↑3.93%)

4/20 (Today):

• Cases: 792,759 (+28,456 | Δ Change: ↑11.71% | Σ Increase: ↑3.72%)
• Deaths: 42,514 (+1,966 | Δ Change: ↑28.16% | Σ Increase: ↑4.85%)

[Dr. Arch]

With the rate that states are going, this is going to be a continued outright pandemic for months ahead with more cases and more deaths. It's shameful.

As a person who checks the case numbers for almost every state every single day, we could see an end to this by mid may in most states.

But the alarmists won't tell you that.

At the current pace with current prevention methods in place, perhaps. Opening up everything when things are starting to improve, like in FL and TX? Absolutely not.

[Calthrina950]

I'm surprised that Polis decided not to extend the order, and he seems to be taking the concerns about the economy seriously enough. But then again, he has been one of the most cautious and measured out of all the Governors in terms of the actions which he has taken, and certainly more so than most other Democrats, so it shouldn't be that much of a surprise. And he is a businessman, so he can perhaps sympathize with those concerned about the bottom line.

That's the opposite of cautious.

How? Polis isn't "rushing to reopen" Colorado like Kemp appears to be doing in Georgia. This is only the first phase, and additional actions are dependent upon what transpires in that first phase. And as I said previously, there needs to be definite timetables in place for this process. We cannot expect for nothing to be done.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

As a person who checks the case numbers for almost every state every single day, we could see an end to this by mid may in most states.

Case numbers will be far, far less than now (certainly not 5 digits), but not zero.

Pandemics have a beginning, middle, and end. The downslope will be pretty slow compared to the upslope. It'll be down to almost zero someday, but it'll be a long, long time.

[emailking]

With the rate that states are going, this is going to be a continued outright pandemic for months ahead with more cases and more deaths. It's shameful.

As a person who checks the case numbers for almost every state every single day, we could see an end to this by mid may in most states.

So why do you ask everyday how the numbers are looking?

[Grassroots]

As a person who checks the case numbers for almost every state every single day, we could see an end to this by mid may in most states.

Case numbers will be far, far less than now (certainly not 5 digits), but not zero.

Pandemics have a beginning, middle, and end. The downslope will be pretty slow compared to the upslope. It'll be down to almost zero someday, but it'll be a long, long time.

It will never be down to 0, but it will realistically be down to about 100 national cases per day around June, which is just fine.

With the rate that states are going, this is going to be a continued outright pandemic for months ahead with more cases and more deaths. It's shameful.

As a person who checks the case numbers for almost every state every single day, we could see an end to this by mid may in most states.

So why do you ask everyday how the numbers are looking?

I ask that very early in the day because I always want a sneak peak.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

With the rate that states are going, this is going to be a continued outright pandemic for months ahead with more cases and more deaths. It's shameful.

As a person who checks the case numbers for almost every state every single day, we could see an end to this by mid may in most states.

But the alarmists won't tell you that.

It seems like people on this forum are immune to any good news about COVID-19.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'll take the middle ground here, right now cases are declining, but once we start to reopen states and businesses what's to say it'll keep declining and now start to rise again? Wisconsin saw a spike after their election, Japan and Hong Kong are seeing a rise after they relaxed restrictions.

[Grassroots]

I'll take the middle ground here, right now cases are declining, but once we start to reopen states and businesses what's to say it'll keep declining and now start to rise again? Wisconsin saw a spike after their election, Japan and Hong Kong are seeing a rise after they relaxed restrictions.

What?

[Meclazine for Israel]

He probably means Japan and Singapore.

Although technically. they are not having a second wave, nor did Singapore relax restrictions. The forced return of overseas migrant workers is causing issues in Singapore due to overcrowding in their accommodation.

They are now enduring exponential growth after 2 months of very flat growth.

[It’s so Joever]

I think that the following states should begin opening up now(Phase two)
-Alaska (except for Anchorage)
-Hawaii
-Parts of East Washington
-Idaho (Except for Boise)
-Montana
-Vermont
-Maine (except for Portland)

By May 1st, many more States and the excluded cities should be able to safely begin opening up.
 That being said, some States are doing things way too prematurely. Some need a sharper decline in cases (Like Georgia) or significantly more testing (Like Colorado) before it is safe.

[It’s so Joever]

I'll take the middle ground here, right now cases are declining, but once we start to reopen states and businesses what's to say it'll keep declining and now start to rise again? Wisconsin saw a spike after their election, Japan and Hong Kong are seeing a rise after they relaxed restrictions.

What?

He means Hong Kong.
The initial “outbreak” was in early February (when 50 cases meant an outbreak) and was so small compared to the second wave, it barely is noticeable on the graph.

[It’s so Joever]

I'm surprised that Polis decided not to extend the order, and he seems to be taking the concerns about the economy seriously enough. But then again, he has been one of the most cautious and measured out of all the Governors in terms of the actions which he has taken, and certainly more so than most other Democrats, so it shouldn't be that much of a surprise. And he is a businessman, so he can perhaps sympathize with those concerned about the bottom line.

That's the opposite of cautious.

How? Polis isn't "rushing to reopen" Colorado like Kemp appears to be doing in Georgia. This is only the first phase, and additional actions are dependent upon what transpires in that first phase. And as I said previously, there needs to be definite timetables in place for this process. We cannot expect for nothing to be done.

Any State with a positivity rate over 20% is in no position to reopen. That rate suggests a lack of counting, undetected growth, and a testing shortage.
Tbh it’s probably safe enough in the Western Slopes/Mountains/Far East, but the Front Range should be shutdown further.

[Calthrina950]

I'm surprised that Polis decided not to extend the order, and he seems to be taking the concerns about the economy seriously enough. But then again, he has been one of the most cautious and measured out of all the Governors in terms of the actions which he has taken, and certainly more so than most other Democrats, so it shouldn't be that much of a surprise. And he is a businessman, so he can perhaps sympathize with those concerned about the bottom line.

That's the opposite of cautious.

How? Polis isn't "rushing to reopen" Colorado like Kemp appears to be doing in Georgia. This is only the first phase, and additional actions are dependent upon what transpires in that first phase. And as I said previously, there needs to be definite timetables in place for this process. We cannot expect for nothing to be done.

Any State with a positivity rate over 20% is in no position to reopen. That rate suggests a lack of counting, undetected growth, and a testing shortage.
Tbh it’s probably safe enough in the Western Slopes/Mountains/Far East, but the Front Range should be shutdown further.

That's probably a realistic framework, and as I mentioned above, if I were Governor, I would have extended the shutdown order into May. But again, people need to have assurance of when life will return to some sense of normalcy, and this plan is at least a step towards providing that. Nevertheless, efforts do need to be made to vastly expand our state's testing apparatus.

An aside from this, but I'm going to give an anecdote which I think you in particular will be happy to hear about. At my job today, it has now become mandatory for all employees to wear masks. I noted previously on here that many people would not wear protective gear, or take steps to protect themselves, unless if they were required to do so. Well now, thanks to Governor Polis' order, all essential employees in Colorado must wear masks. Most of my "coworkers" (to be nice to them) weren't wearing any kind of protective gear whatsoever, not even so much as gloves, before today. And many of them were complaining about having to wear masks. Their reckless disregard for the public safety is appalling to me, and I'm glad that something was done to redress it.

[Frodo]

Of all past epidemics/pandemics in world history, which do you all think comes as the closest analogy to what we are going through now?  

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Of all past epidemics/pandemics in world history, which do you all think comes as the closest analogy to what we are going through now?  

The 1889-90 flu pandemic:

-0.1-0.3% mortality rate (serology based estimates of COVID-19 are 0.1-0.5%)
-R0 of 2.1 (COVID-19 is slightly worse, but not dramatically so)
-Infected 20-60% of world's population
-1 million deaths (world's population 1/5 the size of today's)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_flu_pandemic

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1252220777115549699

I read this (quite long) article this morning and by the end of it, it was still unclear to me why Giroir was fired at his previous university.  It honestly made him sound like one of the more competent people in this administration (though that is not saying much).

Here are a couple of articles contemporary with his resignation.

A&M Health Science Center CEO "Heartbroken" Over Exit

Records reveal details behind departure of Texas A&M University Health Science Center CEO Brett Giroir

When A&M hired Michael K. Young as president for its College Station campus, John Sharp who is chancellor, required the 17 officials who reported to Young to complete an undated letter of resignation so as to give Young free reign in shaping his administration. This might have been a condition of hiring Young, who was hired away from the University of Washington.

It may be that Giroir refused to sign the blank letter of resignation, it is not clear. Giroir was called to a meeting with Young, and was met by Young and several lawyers, who told him he had 30 minutes to resign or be fired. He chose to resign.

Young has said that Giroir had not been successful in attracting enough NIH grants. Perhaps Young who had been at UW, thought he could get someone who could garner Gates Foundation money.

Since Giroir's forced resignation as CEO of the Texas A&M University Health Science Center in 2015, I can find no evidence of a permanent holder of the position. The person named as interim CEO was apparently still interim when in 2018 he was hired away by the Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center El Paso, where he serves as provost and chief academic officer.

Ironically, Young has been placed on a one-year contract. When he was hired, he was given a five-year contract. The one-year contract is consistent with other presidents in the Texas A&M system.

[It’s so Joever]

Of all past epidemics/pandemics in world history, which do you all think comes as the closest analogy to what we are going through now?  

Probably somewhere between the Spanish Flu and the Asian Flu.
If I had to make a scale out of 5, Covid-19 would be in the middle.
5: Black Death/N.A Smallpox
4: Spanish Flu
3: Covid-19
2: Asian Flu/Polio
1. Swine Flu/Ebola

[It’s so Joever]

Of all past epidemics/pandemics in world history, which do you all think comes as the closest analogy to what we are going through now?  

The 1889-90 flu pandemic:

-0.1-0.3% mortality rate (serology based estimates of COVID-19 are 0.1-0.5%)
-R0 of 2.1 (COVID-19 is slightly worse, but not dramatically so)
-Infected 20-60% of world's population
-1 million deaths (world's population 1/5 the size of today's)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_flu_pandemic

We really don’t know how accurate the serology tests are...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/19/fda-antibody-tests-coronavirus-review/%3foutputType=amp

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Of all past epidemics/pandemics in world history, which do you all think comes as the closest analogy to what we are going through now?  

Probably somewhere between the Spanish Flu and the Asian Flu.
If I had to make a scale out of 5, Covid-19 would be in the middle.
5: Black Death/N.A Smallpox
4: Spanish Flu
3: Covid-19
2: Asian Flu/Polio
1. Swine Flu/Ebola

I don't think Ebola belongs on the same scale, as it has never caused a true pandemic, only localized epidemics (and it's ill-suited to cause one in most developed countries based on how it spreads).  Also, the gaps between these are not consistent.  The Black Death (which some believe may have actually been an Ebola-like illness) would be a 100+ if the Spanish Flu was a 4.  I think it's hard to comprehend an epidemic truly killing 1/3 to 1/2 of the population- because nothing like that has been seen since the Black Death (except smallpox in the New World).

[Calthrina950]

Of all past epidemics/pandemics in world history, which do you all think comes as the closest analogy to what we are going through now?  

Probably somewhere between the Spanish Flu and the Asian Flu.
If I had to make a scale out of 5, Covid-19 would be in the middle.
5: Black Death/N.A Smallpox
4: Spanish Flu
3: Covid-19
2: Asian Flu/Polio
1. Swine Flu/Ebola

I don't think Ebola belongs on the same scale, as it has never caused a true pandemic, only localized epidemics (and it's ill-suited to cause one in most developed countries based on how it spreads).  Also, the gaps between these are not consistent.  The Black Death (which some believe may have actually been an Ebola-like illness) would be a 100+ if the Spanish Flu was a 4.  I think it's hard to comprehend an epidemic truly killing 1/3 to 1/2 of the population- because nothing like that has been seen since the Black Death (except smallpox in the New World).

Given what we've seen with coronavirus, I don't even want to begin to imagine how things would be playing out now if instead of coronavirus, the Black Death had returned (particularly if it were an antibiotic-resistant version or something akin). The death toll would be horrendous, and what we are seeing now would pale in comparison.