NC-PPP: Biden +1%

[Frenchrepublican]

Considering the source and the D+5 sample these results are not bad for Trump

There are more Democrats than Republicans in North Carolina.

Once again, partisan registration =/= partisan identification

[Frenchrepublican]

Considering the source and the D+5 sample these results are not bad for Trump

Why are you implying the sample favors Democrats when they have a larger registration advantage than that in NC?

Partisan registration =/= Partisan identification

Republicans have a 1 point lead in terms of partisan identification in NC even if they have a 6 points deficit in terms of partisan registration.
That's due to the fact that in NC many people who are registered as democrats are older, conservative DINOS who don't vote (anymore) for democratic candidates in federal races

https://news.gallup.com/poll/247025/democratic-states-exceed-republican-states-four-2018.aspx

That doesn't mean those DINOs don't still call themselves Democrats. All the question asks is whether the person is a Democrat, Republican, or Independent. You can't assume people are answering the question based on their identification when they could be answering based on their registration.

Possible, but generally it would be strange that people who reject a political party and who never vote for the candidates of this party would still identify with it (even if they are still registered with it)

Here is the question which was asked in the poll, it's pretty obvious that they were not referring to how you're registered but rather which party you're leaning toward to
''If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If an independent, press 3.''

[Frenchrepublican]

Party ID was D+4 in the 2016 exit poll. PPP has had mixed results recently for sure, but Gallup isn’t a very good pollster these days, and quite frankly using them as a benchmark to unskew PPP is galaxy-brain stuff.  A poll that matches the party ID of both recent exit polls and high quality surveys like NYT/Siena (D+5 most recently), and the outcome of the 2016 election is probably at least in the ballpark.

1. Exit polls are not always accurate, remember the midterms AZ exit polls which had Trump approval rate at +12 ? Or the TX exit polls which had Cruz losing native Texans by double digits while winning transplants by double digits ?

2. NC exit polls from four years ago had party ID at D+4, yeah, but they also had Trump winning independent voters by 16 points ! The PPP poll has Trump losing independent voters by 4 and has Tillis losing them by 10. Obviously there is a problem somewhere.

[Brittain33]

Or the TX exit polls which had Cruz losing native Texans by double digits while winning transplants by double digits ?

That's because "native Texans" is mainly a proxy for young people vs. older people.

[tagimaucia]

Party ID was D+4 in the 2016 exit poll. PPP has had mixed results recently for sure, but Gallup isn’t a very good pollster these days, and quite frankly using them as a benchmark to unskew PPP is galaxy-brain stuff.  A poll that matches the party ID of both recent exit polls and high quality surveys like NYT/Siena (D+5 most recently), and the outcome of the 2016 election is probably at least in the ballpark.

1. Exit polls are not always accurate, remember the midterms AZ exit polls which had Trump approval rate at +12 ? Or the TX exit polls which had Cruz losing native Texans by double digits while winning transplants by double digits ?

2. NC exit polls from four years ago had party ID at D+4, yeah, but they also had Trump winning independent voters by 16 points ! The PPP poll has Trump losing independent voters by 4 and has Tillis losing them by 10. Obviously there is a problem somewhere.

Exit polls can definitely be off, but they are still a better benchmark for electorate composition than traditional polls, especially crummy ones like Gallup. Also, the midterm AZ exit polls showed Trump’s approval at +2, I’m literally looking at it right now. And as to native Texans preferring O’Rourke over recent arrivals, how do you know that isn’t correct? Your personal incredulity isn’t an argument. More than half of all Texans under the age of 18 are Latino.  When you realize that native-born Texans skew more urban, younger, and browner, it actually makes a lot of sense. If you google it, you can actually find other polls the find that native born Texans are currently more liberal/Democratic than Texan transplants, it isn’t a one-off result.

And re: NC, you are saying that because Trump won independents in 2016, he couldn’t possibly be losing them now?  I really don’t follow.

[Frenchrepublican]

Party ID was D+4 in the 2016 exit poll. PPP has had mixed results recently for sure, but Gallup isn’t a very good pollster these days, and quite frankly using them as a benchmark to unskew PPP is galaxy-brain stuff.  A poll that matches the party ID of both recent exit polls and high quality surveys like NYT/Siena (D+5 most recently), and the outcome of the 2016 election is probably at least in the ballpark.

1. Exit polls are not always accurate, remember the midterms AZ exit polls which had Trump approval rate at +12 ? Or the TX exit polls which had Cruz losing native Texans by double digits while winning transplants by double digits ?

2. NC exit polls from four years ago had party ID at D+4, yeah, but they also had Trump winning independent voters by 16 points ! The PPP poll has Trump losing independent voters by 4 and has Tillis losing them by 10. Obviously there is a problem somewhere.

Exit polls can definitely be off, but they are still a better benchmark for electorate composition than traditional polls, especially crummy ones like Gallup. Also, the midterm AZ exit polls showed Trump’s approval at +2, I’m literally looking at it right now. And as to native Texans preferring O’Rourke over recent arrivals, how do you know that isn’t correct? Your personal incredulity isn’t an argument. More than half of all Texans under the age of 18 are Latino.  When you realize that native-born Texans skew more urban, younger, and browner, it actually makes a lot of sense. If you google it, you can actually find other polls the find that native born Texans are currently more liberal/Democratic than Texan transplants, it isn’t a one-off result.

And re: NC, you are saying that because Trump won independents in 2016, he couldn’t possibly be losing them now?  I really don’t follow.

Yeah, for the AZ exit polls I misread them. Trump approval rate was only +2, which is still very high and probably untrue considering that at the same time his national approval rate was 44/55 and that AZ leans only a few points to the right of the country, what was at +12 was the share of 2016 Trump voters who represented 50% of the electorate, had these numbers been true, the 2018 AZ Senate race would have given different results, and congressional republicans wouldn't have lost the House vote by 2 points like it happened in the reality.


Concerning TX, it's just common sense. Take a look at the areas which are attracting a lot of outer state residents and look the way they're leaning (and trending). Had Cruz really won the vote of non native Texans by a double digits margin he wouldn't have lost Tarrant or Williamson.


Concerning NC, the point is simple, the 2016 exit polls had the elecorate at D+4, still Trump won NC by 3.5 points, in order to do so he won (according to exit polls) independent voters by 16 points.
Okay, so there are two possibilities
1. Exit polls overestimated the share of democratic voters and overestimated Trump popularity among indepedent voters, the electorate was probably closer to R+1 like Gallup is showing and independent voters were more equally divided
2. Exit polls were right, NC has more people who identify with the democratic party than with the republican party, but NC independents are also pretty right leaning and are far more conservative than national independents

The PPP poll has the NC electorate at D+5, but at the same time Trump is losing independent voters by 4, in other words NC independents would have swung 20 points to the left since 2016. You see ? There is a problem.

It's clear that independent voters in the PPP polls are very different from the CNN exit polls independents (and don't tell me that a group that Trump won by 16 in 2016 is now voting for Biden by 4, that wouldn't be logical).

Either the NC electorate has become more Republican as some former conservative leaning independents have become republicans (and thus, yeah it would be conceivable that Biden is winning independents by 4 points), but in this case the PPP sample is far too D friendly as the electorate is no longer at D+4, or the NC electorate has not changed much over the past four years, democrats have still a +4 advantage, but in this case independent voters that PPP has pollled are far more D friendly than in the reality.

[tagimaucia]

Party ID was D+4 in the 2016 exit poll. PPP has had mixed results recently for sure, but Gallup isn’t a very good pollster these days, and quite frankly using them as a benchmark to unskew PPP is galaxy-brain stuff.  A poll that matches the party ID of both recent exit polls and high quality surveys like NYT/Siena (D+5 most recently), and the outcome of the 2016 election is probably at least in the ballpark.

1. Exit polls are not always accurate, remember the midterms AZ exit polls which had Trump approval rate at +12 ? Or the TX exit polls which had Cruz losing native Texans by double digits while winning transplants by double digits ?

2. NC exit polls from four years ago had party ID at D+4, yeah, but they also had Trump winning independent voters by 16 points ! The PPP poll has Trump losing independent voters by 4 and has Tillis losing them by 10. Obviously there is a problem somewhere.

Exit polls can definitely be off, but they are still a better benchmark for electorate composition than traditional polls, especially crummy ones like Gallup. Also, the midterm AZ exit polls showed Trump’s approval at +2, I’m literally looking at it right now. And as to native Texans preferring O’Rourke over recent arrivals, how do you know that isn’t correct? Your personal incredulity isn’t an argument. More than half of all Texans under the age of 18 are Latino.  When you realize that native-born Texans skew more urban, younger, and browner, it actually makes a lot of sense. If you google it, you can actually find other polls the find that native born Texans are currently more liberal/Democratic than Texan transplants, it isn’t a one-off result.

And re: NC, you are saying that because Trump won independents in 2016, he couldn’t possibly be losing them now?  I really don’t follow.

Concerning TX, it's just common sense. Take a look at the areas which are attracting a lot of outer state residents and look the way they're leaning (and trending). Had Cruz really won the vote of non native Texans by a double digits margin he wouldn't have lost Tarrant or Williamson.


Concerning NC, the point is simple, the 2016 exit polls had the elecorate at D+4, still Trump won NC by 3.5 points, in order to do so he won (according to exit polls) independent voters by 16 points.
Okay, so there are two possibilities
1. Exit polls overestimated the share of democratic voters and overestimated Trump popularity among indepedent voters, the electorate was probably closer to R+1 like Gallup is showing and independent voters were more equally divided
2. Exit polls were right, NC has more people who identify with the democratic party than with the republican party, but NC independents are also pretty right leaning and are far more conservative than national independents

The PPP poll has the NC electorate at D+5, but at the same time Trump is losing independent voters by 4, in other words NC independents would have swung 20 points to the left since 2016. You see ? There is a problem.

It's clear that independent voters in the PPP polls are very different from the CNN exit polls independents (and don't tell me that a group that Trump won by 16 in 2016 is now voting for Biden by 4, that wouldn't be logical).

Either the NC electorate has become more Republican as some former conservative leaning independents have become republicans (and thus, yeah it would be conceivable that Biden is winning independents by 4 points), but in this case the PPP sample is far too D friendly as the electorate is no longer at D+4, or the NC electorate has not changed much over the past four years, democrats have still a +4 advantage, but in this case independent voters that PPP has pollled are far more D friendly than in the reality.

Not gonna continue the Texas argument except to say that... the Republican governor of Texas agrees with me.

https://www.thecentersquare.com/texas/gov-abbott-new-texas-voters-are-more-conservative-than-natives/article_8a250872-1c5a-11ea-9fc0-4303155b0d9d.html

Your argument about North Carolina basically boils down to "it isn't possible that North Carolina independents could swing that much from one election to another," to which I respond... why? Independents literally just swung from Trump +4 in 2016 to D+12 in the House in 2018 according to exits.  NC independents are definitely more right-leaning than independents in the US as a whole (they'd have to be since its a state with more self-identified Democrats than Republicans which nevertheless is R-leaning electorally), but I don't see why that precludes them from swinging as a group any more or less than in any other state.

[Adam Griffin]

Probably as good as it can get here barring an absolute bloodbath for Trump. So many don't realize that Clinton didn't even come close to hitting the bottom with white rural voters in NC, and NC's growth elsewhere is only enough to barely offset any further rural losses under optimal conditions. This has been an ongoing phenomenon in every post-2008 election.

I'm fully expecting this is the year that GA leapfrogs NC margin-wise.

NC had a lightning fast D trend in 04 and 08, just like in VA. It seemed liked after Obama won NC in 08 that NC was a future D state, and was one cycle behind VA. NC did trend 1 point D in 2012, and then a few decimal points D in 2016. People must be over hyping the Research Triangle's growth in NC.

The (good) Sunbelt states had almost unimaginable growth between 2002-2007; it's part of the reason VA swung 14 points, NC 13 points and GA 11 points between '04 and '08. Arguably the size and composition of growth in GA was more influential in the '08 margin than in the other states (where persuasion played a greater role).

Of course, when the housing market collapsed (followed by the recession), states like GA, NC & VA saw their out-of-state growth essentially cease for several years. Obama '08 in NC enjoyed the benefits of both that immense, fleeting out-of-state growth and the ancestral branding loyalty that comes with a closed primary state where one party dominance was all-encompassing (for the most part) up until that point; it's easy to forget that NC has only had 3 GOP governors in the past 100 years, and only 1 (McCrory; 1 term) in the 21st century. The latter effect has continued to play more of a role in rural areas than people know, but it's wearing off quickly. Whites in NC could fall to 25% D under the right circumstances (was 31% in 2012 and 29-30% in 2016).

[Frenchrepublican]

Party ID was D+4 in the 2016 exit poll. PPP has had mixed results recently for sure, but Gallup isn’t a very good pollster these days, and quite frankly using them as a benchmark to unskew PPP is galaxy-brain stuff.  A poll that matches the party ID of both recent exit polls and high quality surveys like NYT/Siena (D+5 most recently), and the outcome of the 2016 election is probably at least in the ballpark.

1. Exit polls are not always accurate, remember the midterms AZ exit polls which had Trump approval rate at +12 ? Or the TX exit polls which had Cruz losing native Texans by double digits while winning transplants by double digits ?

2. NC exit polls from four years ago had party ID at D+4, yeah, but they also had Trump winning independent voters by 16 points ! The PPP poll has Trump losing independent voters by 4 and has Tillis losing them by 10. Obviously there is a problem somewhere.

Exit polls can definitely be off, but they are still a better benchmark for electorate composition than traditional polls, especially crummy ones like Gallup. Also, the midterm AZ exit polls showed Trump’s approval at +2, I’m literally looking at it right now. And as to native Texans preferring O’Rourke over recent arrivals, how do you know that isn’t correct? Your personal incredulity isn’t an argument. More than half of all Texans under the age of 18 are Latino.  When you realize that native-born Texans skew more urban, younger, and browner, it actually makes a lot of sense. If you google it, you can actually find other polls the find that native born Texans are currently more liberal/Democratic than Texan transplants, it isn’t a one-off result.

And re: NC, you are saying that because Trump won independents in 2016, he couldn’t possibly be losing them now?  I really don’t follow.

Concerning TX, it's just common sense. Take a look at the areas which are attracting a lot of outer state residents and look the way they're leaning (and trending). Had Cruz really won the vote of non native Texans by a double digits margin he wouldn't have lost Tarrant or Williamson.


Concerning NC, the point is simple, the 2016 exit polls had the elecorate at D+4, still Trump won NC by 3.5 points, in order to do so he won (according to exit polls) independent voters by 16 points.
Okay, so there are two possibilities
1. Exit polls overestimated the share of democratic voters and overestimated Trump popularity among indepedent voters, the electorate was probably closer to R+1 like Gallup is showing and independent voters were more equally divided
2. Exit polls were right, NC has more people who identify with the democratic party than with the republican party, but NC independents are also pretty right leaning and are far more conservative than national independents

The PPP poll has the NC electorate at D+5, but at the same time Trump is losing independent voters by 4, in other words NC independents would have swung 20 points to the left since 2016. You see ? There is a problem.

It's clear that independent voters in the PPP polls are very different from the CNN exit polls independents (and don't tell me that a group that Trump won by 16 in 2016 is now voting for Biden by 4, that wouldn't be logical).

Either the NC electorate has become more Republican as some former conservative leaning independents have become republicans (and thus, yeah it would be conceivable that Biden is winning independents by 4 points), but in this case the PPP sample is far too D friendly as the electorate is no longer at D+4, or the NC electorate has not changed much over the past four years, democrats have still a +4 advantage, but in this case independent voters that PPP has pollled are far more D friendly than in the reality.

Not gonna continue the Texas argument except to say that... the Republican governor of Texas agrees with me.

https://www.thecentersquare.com/texas/gov-abbott-new-texas-voters-are-more-conservative-than-natives/article_8a250872-1c5a-11ea-9fc0-4303155b0d9d.html

Your argument about North Carolina basically boils down to "it isn't possible that North Carolina independents could swing that much from one election to another," to which I respond... why? Independents literally just swung from Trump +4 in 2016 to D+12 in the House in 2018 according to exits.  NC independents are definitely more right-leaning than independents in the US as a whole (they'd have to be since its a state with more self-identified Democrats than Republicans which nevertheless is R-leaning electorally), but I don't see why that precludes them from swinging as a group any more or less than in any other state.

Because independent voters are rarely ''true'' independents. The vast majority of them vote almost always for the candidates of a same political party.
Romney won the vote of independent voters by 3 points, Trump, despite being a very different kind of candidate won them by 4 points.
Thus, it's impossible to see how independents voters could realistically shift 20 points to the left, do you even understand what a such swing would mean ? considering that Trump won them by 4 points four years ago, a such swing would mean they would vote for Joe Biden by a 16 points margin, that's a democratic pipe dream, even in 2008 Obama won independents by ''only'' 8 points, which was already pretty impressive.

Yeah, in 2018 democrats won the independent vote by 12 points, but this is due to two factors which are not going to happen again in 2020.
1. Independents voters who lean toward the opposition/minority party, by definition tend to outvote the independents who lean toward the party of the President as they're more motivated, it helped republicans in 2014, it hurted them in 2018. But in a presidential election conservative leaning independents and progressive leaning independents tend to vote at similar rate
2. It's easier for a republican independent to cast a ballot for his democratic incumbent senator or even for a democratic house candidate who will provide some balance in DC than for the democratic presidential candidate, congressional races remain less polarized than presidential ones

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Party ID was D+4 in the 2016 exit poll. PPP has had mixed results recently for sure, but Gallup isn’t a very good pollster these days, and quite frankly using them as a benchmark to unskew PPP is galaxy-brain stuff.  A poll that matches the party ID of both recent exit polls and high quality surveys like NYT/Siena (D+5 most recently), and the outcome of the 2016 election is probably at least in the ballpark.

1. Exit polls are not always accurate, remember the midterms AZ exit polls which had Trump approval rate at +12 ? Or the TX exit polls which had Cruz losing native Texans by double digits while winning transplants by double digits ?

2. NC exit polls from four years ago had party ID at D+4, yeah, but they also had Trump winning independent voters by 16 points ! The PPP poll has Trump losing independent voters by 4 and has Tillis losing them by 10. Obviously there is a problem somewhere.

Exit polls can definitely be off, but they are still a better benchmark for electorate composition than traditional polls, especially crummy ones like Gallup. Also, the midterm AZ exit polls showed Trump’s approval at +2, I’m literally looking at it right now. And as to native Texans preferring O’Rourke over recent arrivals, how do you know that isn’t correct? Your personal incredulity isn’t an argument. More than half of all Texans under the age of 18 are Latino.  When you realize that native-born Texans skew more urban, younger, and browner, it actually makes a lot of sense. If you google it, you can actually find other polls the find that native born Texans are currently more liberal/Democratic than Texan transplants, it isn’t a one-off result.

And re: NC, you are saying that because Trump won independents in 2016, he couldn’t possibly be losing them now?  I really don’t follow.

Concerning TX, it's just common sense. Take a look at the areas which are attracting a lot of outer state residents and look the way they're leaning (and trending). Had Cruz really won the vote of non native Texans by a double digits margin he wouldn't have lost Tarrant or Williamson.


Concerning NC, the point is simple, the 2016 exit polls had the elecorate at D+4, still Trump won NC by 3.5 points, in order to do so he won (according to exit polls) independent voters by 16 points.
Okay, so there are two possibilities
1. Exit polls overestimated the share of democratic voters and overestimated Trump popularity among indepedent voters, the electorate was probably closer to R+1 like Gallup is showing and independent voters were more equally divided
2. Exit polls were right, NC has more people who identify with the democratic party than with the republican party, but NC independents are also pretty right leaning and are far more conservative than national independents

The PPP poll has the NC electorate at D+5, but at the same time Trump is losing independent voters by 4, in other words NC independents would have swung 20 points to the left since 2016. You see ? There is a problem.

It's clear that independent voters in the PPP polls are very different from the CNN exit polls independents (and don't tell me that a group that Trump won by 16 in 2016 is now voting for Biden by 4, that wouldn't be logical).

Either the NC electorate has become more Republican as some former conservative leaning independents have become republicans (and thus, yeah it would be conceivable that Biden is winning independents by 4 points), but in this case the PPP sample is far too D friendly as the electorate is no longer at D+4, or the NC electorate has not changed much over the past four years, democrats have still a +4 advantage, but in this case independent voters that PPP has pollled are far more D friendly than in the reality.

Not gonna continue the Texas argument except to say that... the Republican governor of Texas agrees with me.

https://www.thecentersquare.com/texas/gov-abbott-new-texas-voters-are-more-conservative-than-natives/article_8a250872-1c5a-11ea-9fc0-4303155b0d9d.html

Your argument about North Carolina basically boils down to "it isn't possible that North Carolina independents could swing that much from one election to another," to which I respond... why? Independents literally just swung from Trump +4 in 2016 to D+12 in the House in 2018 according to exits.  NC independents are definitely more right-leaning than independents in the US as a whole (they'd have to be since its a state with more self-identified Democrats than Republicans which nevertheless is R-leaning electorally), but I don't see why that precludes them from swinging as a group any more or less than in any other state.

Because independent voters are rarely ''true'' independents. The vast majority of them vote almost always for the candidates of a same political party.
Romney won the vote of independent voters by 3 points, Trump, despite being a very different kind of candidate won them by 4 points.
Thus, it's impossible to see how independents voters could realistically shift 20 points to the left, do you even understand what a such swing would mean ? considering that Trump won them by 4 points four years ago, a such swing would mean they would vote for Joe Biden by a 16 points margin, that's a democratic pipe dream, even in 2008 Obama won independents by ''only'' 8 points, which was already pretty impressive.

Yeah, in 2018 democrats won the independent vote by 12 points, but this is due to two factors which are not going to happen again in 2020.
1. Independents voters who lean toward the opposition/minority party, by definition tend to outvote the independents who lean toward the party of the President as they're more motivated, it helped republicans in 2014, it hurted them in 2018. But in a presidential election conservative leaning independents and progressive leaning independents tend to vote at similar rate
2. It's easier for a republican independent to cast a ballot for his democratic incumbent senator or even for a democratic house candidate who will provide some balance in DC than for the democratic presidential candidate, congressional races remain less polarized than presidential ones

2020 the unemployment has changed from 3.5 percent to an elevated unemployment level. We dont know how high it is but Trump is still at 44 percent approvals like he was in 2018

[MT Treasurer]

This is entirely believable. In a more Republican-friendly year, Trump would be favored in NC, but in an environment like this it’s going to be one of the closest states.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Probably as good as it can get here barring an absolute bloodbath for Trump. So many don't realize that Clinton didn't even come close to hitting the bottom with white rural voters in NC, and NC's growth elsewhere is only enough to barely offset any further rural losses under optimal conditions. This has been an ongoing phenomenon in every post-2008 election.

I'm fully expecting this is the year that GA leapfrogs NC margin-wise.

NC had a lightning fast D trend in 04 and 08, just like in VA. It seemed liked after Obama won NC in 08 that NC was a future D state, and was one cycle behind VA. NC did trend 1 point D in 2012, and then a few decimal points D in 2016. People must be over hyping the Research Triangle's growth in NC.

Democrats still had a lot of rural strength in the 2000s. It is worth remembering that at the same time Bush was winning by 13%, Easley was also winning by double digits. Bush also won Wake both times and won Mecklenburg in 2000.

While the Research Triangle is affecting Wake and Chatham of course, and Charlotte has zoomed to the left, but there hasn't been much impact in the Charlotte/Raleigh Burbs/exurbs outside of Mecklenburg/Wake meanwhile you had the rural areas.

I had emphasized the point that for several reasons Clinton was horrendous for rural NC. Bill did well in rural NC but lost the state because of the suburbs. However, the impact of NAFTA on rural and small town NC has been devastating in the years since, blamed on Clinton. Then of course there is the decline of tobacco, which was blamed on Clinton. Finally, immigration politics and this is a big reason why rural NC, like rural areas all over the place have zoomed to the right. The large growth of hispanics who don't or can't vote arriving in a place that used to be 100% white, or 75% White, 25% black, causes the white voters to trend heavily Republican. Especially as Republicans have become more Trumpist, there is no resistance to this flow of support.

Trump, Richard Burr and Pat McCrory understood the immigration dynamic and tapped into it multiple times. Thom Tillis and his Koch industries backers do not and thus why Tillis is going to under-perform Trump in rural NC.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

While NC’s trends are way overrated, the suburbs haven’t exactly remained static in the Trump era. Democrats won about 44% on average in Cabarrus County in 2018, and Dan McCready shaved 10% off the Trump margin in Union County in both his races. If Biden can come close to matching that, then North Carolina will be a razor tight state

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Or the TX exit polls which had Cruz losing native Texans by double digits while winning transplants by double digits ?

That's because "native Texans" is mainly a proxy for young people vs. older people.

FR is right, there’s no real way that exit poll crosstab holds water if you look at the statewide results. Cruz held onto or expanded on Trump’s margins in the least transient counties and got destroyed in the most transient ones

[Badger]

Toss-up state.
It would be great if Biden could include NC in his column come November.

PS: Do you guys think that we should include "(D)" in the title?

Not for this one.  If they were polling for a Democratic or Progressive group as a client, as they often do, then it would be appropriate.  But this appears to be one of PPP's polls on their own initiative.  Contrary to the opinion of some people, they do not have an inherent D bias in their results.

Should that ever be the case regardless of whomever sponsors their poll, so long as the contents aren't push poll oriented?

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: North Carolina President by Public Policy Polling on 2020-04-15

Summary: D: 48%, R: 47%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details