NC-PPP: Biden +1%

[JRP1994]

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/1250757497591300097

[Frenchrepublican]

Considering the source and the D+5 sample these results are not bad for Trump

[GeorgiaModerate]

Considering the source and the D+5 sample these results are not bad for Trump

Perhaps, but remember that North Carolina is PPP's home state, and they usually do a fine job of polling it.

A couple of other thoughts on this:

1. The sample reports as having voted for Trump over Clinton 47-43.

2. Biden leads the head-to-head despite Trump having a better favorability (45/50 vs Biden's 39/50).

[Bidenworth2020]

Considering the source and the D+5 sample these results are not bad for Trump

North Carolina is D+6 among registered voters. Furthermore, this sample voted for Trump by 4 against Clinton (his exact margin)

Also, an interesting tidbit--

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump 48-47 in the Presidential race. Fitting the pattern we’ve seen in most swing states the undecided voters are Democratic leaning- they voted for Hillary Clinton by 29 points and they support Cal Cunningham over Thom Tillis in the Senate race by 40 points. If they end up voting for President along those lines Biden would lead by 3 in the state. But they’re not sold on him yet and he and his allies will need to continue working to win them over.

[Adam Griffin]

Probably as good as it can get here barring an absolute bloodbath for Trump. So many don't realize that Clinton didn't even come close to hitting the bottom with white rural voters in NC, and NC's growth elsewhere is only enough to barely offset any further rural losses under optimal conditions. This has been an ongoing phenomenon in every post-2008 election.

I'm fully expecting this is the year that GA leapfrogs NC margin-wise.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, sounds about right.

And it's really annoying that every PPP thread, there are people who say to junk PPP just b/c they're a Dem-polling firm. Their track record is actually pretty good, so i don't get that critique

[krb08]

Considering the source and the D+5 sample these results are not bad for Trump

Why are you implying the sample favors Democrats when they have a larger registration advantage than that in NC?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another red state going towards Biden as more workers are going towards to unemployment line. I remember Boehner who said that Dems should lose the House in 2009 due to 9.9 percent unemployment.  Yes, Trump should lose reelection due to elevated unemployment

[Frenchrepublican]

Considering the source and the D+5 sample these results are not bad for Trump

Why are you implying the sample favors Democrats when they have a larger registration advantage than that in NC?

Partisan registration =/= Partisan identification

Republicans have a 1 point lead in terms of partisan identification in NC even if they have a 6 points deficit in terms of partisan registration.
That's due to the fact that in NC many people who are registered as democrats are older, conservative DINOS who don't vote (anymore) for democratic candidates in federal races

https://news.gallup.com/poll/247025/democratic-states-exceed-republican-states-four-2018.aspx

[Frenchrepublican]

Considering the source and the D+5 sample these results are not bad for Trump

Perhaps, but remember that North Carolina is PPP's home state, and they usually do a fine job of polling it.

A couple of other thoughts on this:

1. The sample reports as having voted for Trump over Clinton 47-43.

2. Biden leads the head-to-head despite Trump having a better favorability (45/50 vs Biden's 39/50).

That was true in 2012 but in 2014/2016 their NC polls consistenly overestimated democrats by large margins. Their last NC presidential poll for the 2016 cycle for example overestimated Clinton by 7 points and in 2014 every polls they published had Tillis losing.

Concerning your first point, you're right, in a vacuum this sample is fair, the problem is that PPP tends to include in its polls a large numbers of persons who didn't vote in the previous election, or who don't remember for whom they voted and these persons almost always back the democratic candidate by a 3 to 1 ratio, which explains why their results tend to be very D friendly.

[Podgy the Bear]

This will be close, but again, NC appears to track FL (more so than GA) in its net political motion.  The difference here is that the D party machinery runs much better in NC.

[wbrocks67]

If Cooper is winning by double digits, I'd be surprised if the coattails didn't extend, at least a little bit, to Cunningham and Biden.

Cunningham is in a very good position it would appear, esp with Tillis's sinking approval ratings and the NC GOP being inundated with the Burr scandal

[krb08]

Considering the source and the D+5 sample these results are not bad for Trump

Why are you implying the sample favors Democrats when they have a larger registration advantage than that in NC?

Partisan registration =/= Partisan identification

Republicans have a 1 point lead in terms of partisan identification in NC even if they have a 6 points deficit in terms of partisan registration.
That's due to the fact that in NC many people who are registered as democrats are older, conservative DINOS who don't vote (anymore) for democratic candidates in federal races

https://news.gallup.com/poll/247025/democratic-states-exceed-republican-states-four-2018.aspx

That doesn't mean those DINOs don't still call themselves Democrats. All the question asks is whether the person is a Democrat, Republican, or Independent. You can't assume people are answering the question based on their identification when they could be answering based on their registration.

[iceman]

is PPP still reputable? they obviously did very bad in 2016.

[wbrocks67]

is PPP still reputable? they obviously did very bad in 2016.

They didn't do many polls in 2018 it looks like, but they had the generic ballot D+6 and D+8 on two different occasions, which were both on point.

Going back thru some of their polls in 2016, they didn't do that badly. NV, which is one of the hardest to poll, they had Clinton +4, which was not far from the actual result

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PPP_Release_NV_101216.pdf

[tagimaucia]

Party ID was D+4 in the 2016 exit poll. PPP has had mixed results recently for sure, but Gallup isn’t a very good pollster these days, and quite frankly using them as a benchmark to unskew PPP is galaxy-brain stuff.  A poll that matches the party ID of both recent exit polls and high quality surveys like NYT/Siena (D+5 most recently), and the outcome of the 2016 election is probably at least in the ballpark.

[Sir Mohamed]

Definitely closer to reality than the GOP poll from recently. NC is a tossup/tilt R.

[pppolitics]

Considering the source and the D+5 sample these results are not bad for Trump

There are more Democrats than Republicans in North Carolina.

[Pollster]

PPP is one of the few pollsters (especially Dem pollsters) that actually adjusted their methodology post-2016 instead of just blowing smoke about how polling needs to evolve, and its unreasonable to compare their old and heavily flawed methodology to their new approach, which has leapfrogged them ahead of many of the others who actively publish their polling. Not only that, they have been incredibly transparent about the changes they've made.

Are they the unquestionable gold standard? No. But the avalanche of sh**tposting that seems to be a package deal with PPP polls on this forum needs to be gotten under control.

[ProudModerate2]

Toss-up state.
It would be great if Biden could include NC in his column come November.

PS: Do you guys think that we should include "(D)" in the title?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Toss-up state.
It would be great if Biden could include NC in his column come November.

PS: Do you guys think that we should include "(D)" in the title?

Not for this one.  If they were polling for a Democratic or Progressive group as a client, as they often do, then it would be appropriate.  But this appears to be one of PPP's polls on their own initiative.  Contrary to the opinion of some people, they do not have an inherent D bias in their results.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't know, that still translates into a Trump lead to me. I expect undecideds to largely favor him by November.

I think Democrats have a much better chance at winning the down-ballot races here. Hell, defeating Tillis is required to take back the Senate. There will be a Democratic presence here, but I think resources are better spent elsewhere at the presidential levels. Hillary Clinton made a mistake in 2016 by investing so much time and effort here as opposed to the big three. I don't think it's wise for Biden to get too ambitious this year.

[libertpaulian]

Don't undecideds break for the challenger, hence why we've got Senators Braun, Hawley, and Scott now?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Don't undecideds break for the challenger, hence why we've got Senators Braun, Hawley, and Scott now?

I've always found "undecideds break for the challenger" as a stupid 'rule', since it imposes a modicum of regularity over something that is extremely unpredictable. Undecideds broke for Obama in 2012, Bush in 2004, Clinton in 1996, and Reagan in 1984.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Probably as good as it can get here barring an absolute bloodbath for Trump. So many don't realize that Clinton didn't even come close to hitting the bottom with white rural voters in NC, and NC's growth elsewhere is only enough to barely offset any further rural losses under optimal conditions. This has been an ongoing phenomenon in every post-2008 election.

I'm fully expecting this is the year that GA leapfrogs NC margin-wise.

NC had a lightning fast D trend in 04 and 08, just like in VA. It seemed liked after Obama won NC in 08 that NC was a future D state, and was one cycle behind VA. NC did trend 1 point D in 2012, and then a few decimal points D in 2016. People must be over hyping the Research Triangle's growth in NC.