By how much does Joe Biden win the PV to win the EC
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  By how much does Joe Biden win the PV to win the EC		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: By how much does Joe Biden win the PV to win the EC
#1
just a plurality		  
#2
at least 2%		  
#3
at least 4%		  
#4
at least 6%		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 42

Author Topic: By how much does Joe Biden win the PV to win the EC  (Read 626 times)
Lognog
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« on: April 11, 2020, 12:37:06 AM »
discuss
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2020, 12:46:49 AM »
You literally created this same exact thread 8 hours ago.

Mods, please merge.
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Lognog
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« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2020, 01:19:22 AM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on April 11, 2020, 12:46:49 AM
You literally created this same exact thread 8 hours ago.

Mods, please merge.

sorry im a little new to posting
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #3 on: April 11, 2020, 01:20:42 AM »
Quote from: Lognog on April 11, 2020, 01:19:22 AM
Quote from: brucejoel99 on April 11, 2020, 12:46:49 AM
You literally created this same exact thread 8 hours ago.

Mods, please merge.

sorry im a little new to posting

No worries! And welcome to the forum!
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2020, 04:06:54 AM »
It depends if the recent CA poll which had Trump losing it by 37 points is true or not.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #5 on: April 11, 2020, 04:23:07 AM »
Below two points, he probably loses. Three points is the minimum, but could still go wrong. Four would be safer, five even better. I think there is no definite answer, he could theoretically lose with a four points advantage if Arizona and Wisconsin narrowly go to Trump, but he could also win with three points if at least one of them goes his way along with Michigan and Pennsylvania.

What's probably fair to say is that a four point win, which Obama had over Romney, very likely won't translate into 332 Electoral Votes. With five points, Joe Biden could win with 334, flipping the big three from 2016, plus Arizona, Florida and North Carolina.

Quote from: Frenchrepublican on April 11, 2020, 04:06:54 AM
It depends if the recent CA poll which had Trump losing it by 37 points is true or not.


My current prediction for California something like 66-31%. Probably the Golden State will have Biden anywhere between 63% and 68% and Trump in the 29-34% range.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #6 on: April 11, 2020, 03:51:56 PM »
It’s hard to tell. Obama could have lost by 1% and still won in 2012, or by almost 3% and still won in 2008. Hillary could have won by 3% and still lost.

It’s hard to say if this is indicative of a trend from 2008 to 2016 from a Democratic-leaning Electoral College to a Republican-leaning one, and if it will continue.
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Lognog
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« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2020, 02:34:26 PM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on April 11, 2020, 01:20:42 AM
Quote from: Lognog on April 11, 2020, 01:19:22 AM
Quote from: brucejoel99 on April 11, 2020, 12:46:49 AM
You literally created this same exact thread 8 hours ago.

Mods, please merge.

sorry im a little new to posting

No worries! And welcome to the forum!

Thanks! honestly I love this place
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AGA
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« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2020, 02:35:58 PM »
Write-in: 3%
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2020, 02:41:49 PM »
I think Trump has to carry the PV by a significant margin to win the EC. Probably 3 or more, at least.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2020, 06:08:57 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on April 10, 2020, 06:37:20 PM
Three points could go either way.

3.5 points might yield a narrow victory.

But Four points is probably the minimum popular vote margin that I would be the most confident in when it comes to him also winning the electoral college.

It's such bulls*** that this has to be the case.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: April 12, 2020, 06:19:58 PM »
2, reverse of Hilary 278 EC map
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