2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Missouri

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

This is a very ugly map for seemingly no reason or benefit to anyone.

[BoiseBoy]

This is a very ugly map for seemingly no reason or benefit to anyone.

It shores up MO-02 a few points. That's about it. Not even over Trump +10 and still shifted hard left between 2016/2020.

[Oryxslayer]

This is a very ugly map for seemingly no reason or benefit to anyone.

https://twitter.com/seanschuerman/status/1507071314405863431?s=20&t=m7SqxO1-...

Apparently one beneficiary was the new primary challenger to Cori Bush. Ahh, good old ratF***ing the other primary. Which is maybe why a few Dems gave their consent to this - though GOP unity provided enough votes on its own.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

This is a very ugly map for seemingly no reason or benefit to anyone.

https://twitter.com/seanschuerman/status/1507071314405863431?s=20&t=m7SqxO1-...
Apparently one beneficiary was the new primary challenger to Cori Bush. Ahh, good old rating the other primary.

Keeping Cori Bush in the house would be a benefit to Republicans, given that she provides an easy strawman of democrats in the state and she probably votes more with Republicans than a generic D would.

[MarkD]

Also, overshadowed by today's congressional redistricting news, but here's the GOP primary breakdowns in a number of State Senate districts:

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1507052484220575750

Out of 17 available senate races, Democrats have only 3 candidates running, each of them in the seats that they already hold, and no Democrat has yet filed to run in any of the other 14 districts, all of which are held by Republicans currently, and all 14 Republicans are at least lean Republican; most are heavily Republican. The oddest list of candidates for any of the senate districts so far is in district 30 - covering Springfield. The incumbent, Lincoln Hough, is eligible to run for reelection; he has been quoted in the media as saying he intends to run for another term, and would file "soon," but that was a month ago, but he still hasn't filed to run, with only three business days left before filing ends. Also, as the most competitive senate district that is up for grabs this cycle, a Democrat should run for this seat, such as Rep. Crystal Quade, but still no Democrat has filed yet. It would be utterly ridiculous for Democrats to not try to compete for any of those Republican-held seats, especially SD 30, and to only have 3 candidates running for the three seats they currently hold (4, 14, and 24; adjacent to one another in the St. Louis City-County area).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/scottfaughn/status/1506974490055614469?s=20&t=m7SqxO1-V6...

Supposedly the compromise. Wagner gonna be mad.

It appears there might be a deal at hand for the congressional map:

Apparently with Jefferson County in the 8th?

What broke the impasse?

Time. Filing deadline's next week and if there wasn't a map then good chance of court intervention by necessity and all the GOP plans get spoiled.

That makes sense.

[Tekken_Guy]

Also, overshadowed by today's congressional redistricting news, but here's the GOP primary breakdowns in a number of State Senate districts:

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1507052484220575750

Out of 17 available senate races, Democrats have only 3 candidates running, each of them in the seats that they already hold, and no Democrat has yet filed to run in any of the other 14 districts, all of which are held by Republicans currently, and all 14 Republicans are at least lean Republican; most are heavily Republican. The oddest list of candidates for any of the senate districts so far is in district 30 - covering Springfield. The incumbent, Lincoln Hough, is eligible to run for reelection; he has been quoted in the media as saying he intends to run for another term, and would file "soon," but that was a month ago, but he still hasn't filed to run, with only three business days left before filing ends. Also, as the most competitive senate district that is up for grabs this cycle, a Democrat should run for this seat, such as Rep. Crystal Quade, but still no Democrat has filed yet. It would be utterly ridiculous for Democrats to not try to compete for any of those Republican-held seats, especially SD 30, and to only have 3 candidates running for the three seats they currently hold (4, 14, and 24; adjacent to one another in the St. Louis City-County area).

Quade is eligible for one more term in the legislature and her house seat is bluer than the Senate seat, which still voted for Trump and is unlikely to go Blue.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

This is a very ugly map for seemingly no reason or benefit to anyone.

https://twitter.com/seanschuerman/status/1507071314405863431?s=20&t=m7SqxO1-...
Apparently one beneficiary was the new primary challenger to Cori Bush. Ahh, good old rating the other primary.

Keeping Cori Bush in the house would be a benefit to Republicans, given that she provides an easy strawman of democrats in the state and she probably votes more with Republicans than a generic D would.

Yeah, but that's not how these people think. I forget who, but on one of the Missouri politics talk shows, one of the people who voted for the original 6-2 map said that if a "Cori Bush type" represented Cleaver's district, there would be "no question" they would be drawn out. After this fiasco, I don't know if anyone can be said to have any clue what the MO legislature will or will not do, but there is a mentality among some that "normal Democrats" should not be gone after.

Then they are very dumb.

[ProgressiveModerate]

MO-2 comes out to about Trump +8. Pretty ugly for not a lot of actual shore up.

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1507207723334742025

Seems like their goal was to make the district as suburban as possible to make Wagner happy while also connecting it to the reddest rurals to keep it R. Jefferson County isn't great for this as it's pretty Trumpy but not even that R relative to other nearby areas.

[Tekken_Guy]

MO-2 comes out to about Trump +8. Pretty ugly for not a lot of actual shore up.

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1507207723334742025

Seems like their goal was to make the district as suburban as possible to make Wagner happy while also connecting it to the reddest rurals to keep it R. Jefferson County isn't great for this as it's pretty Trumpy but not even that R relative to other nearby areas.

It’s still only Trump by single digits. It could be a problem by the end of the decade if the trends in St. Louis and St. Charles continue.

[ProgressiveModerate]

MO-2 comes out to about Trump +8. Pretty ugly for not a lot of actual shore up.

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1507207723334742025

Seems like their goal was to make the district as suburban as possible to make Wagner happy while also connecting it to the reddest rurals to keep it R. Jefferson County isn't great for this as it's pretty Trumpy but not even that R relative to other nearby areas.

It’s still only Trump by single digits. It could be a problem by the end of the decade if the trends in St. Louis and St. Charles continue.

Def could, but as others have pointed out, STL suburbs aren't growing particularly fast nor rlly becoming more diverse so I have my doubts. I think Dems path to victory in the district would run through a really solid performance in the St. Charles portion of the district as that's def the area where they have the most to gain and is the favored quarter of the city, plus it actually growing

[Tekken_Guy]

MO-2 comes out to about Trump +8. Pretty ugly for not a lot of actual shore up.

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1507207723334742025

Seems like their goal was to make the district as suburban as possible to make Wagner happy while also connecting it to the reddest rurals to keep it R. Jefferson County isn't great for this as it's pretty Trumpy but not even that R relative to other nearby areas.

It’s still only Trump by single digits. It could be a problem by the end of the decade if the trends in St. Louis and St. Charles continue.

Def could, but as others have pointed out, STL suburbs aren't growing particularly fast nor rlly becoming more diverse so I have my doubts. I think Dems path to victory in the district would run through a really solid performance in the St. Charles portion of the district as that's def the area where they have the most to gain and is the favored quarter of the city, plus it actually growing

I think continued leftward trends in suburbs will help.

[jamestroll]

The new MO-02 would need a major wave or localized candidate to flip and would probably only flip in a statewide race a Democrat manages to win.

Yea, we will not be hearing about it much this decade.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In 2018, Galloway won the new MO-3 by like 70 votes, lmao

I wonder what circumstances it would take for the district to elect a Democrat.

[Tekken_Guy]

The new MO-02 would need a major wave or localized candidate to flip and would probably only flip in a statewide race a Democrat manages to win.

Yea, we will not be hearing about it much this decade.

The district votes 8 points to the left of the state so it would flip before the state does. It’s not hard to see it flipping later on in the decade if St. Louis or St. Charles county get way bluer.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The new MO-02 would need a major wave or localized candidate to flip and would probably only flip in a statewide race a Democrat manages to win.

Yea, we will not be hearing about it much this decade.

The district votes 8 points to the left of the state so it would flip before the state does. It’s not hard to see it flipping later on in the decade if St. Louis or St. Charles county get way bluer.

That rural portion is, what, 20% of the seat?

[MarkD]

Also, overshadowed by today's congressional redistricting news, but here's the GOP primary breakdowns in a number of State Senate districts:

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1507052484220575750

Out of 17 available senate races, Democrats have only 3 candidates running, each of them in the seats that they already hold, and no Democrat has yet filed to run in any of the other 14 districts, all of which are held by Republicans currently, and all 14 Republicans are at least lean Republican; most are heavily Republican. The oddest list of candidates for any of the senate districts so far is in district 30 - covering Springfield. The incumbent, Lincoln Hough, is eligible to run for reelection; he has been quoted in the media as saying he intends to run for another term, and would file "soon," but that was a month ago, but he still hasn't filed to run, with only three business days left before filing ends. Also, as the most competitive senate district that is up for grabs this cycle, a Democrat should run for this seat, such as Rep. Crystal Quade, but still no Democrat has filed yet. It would be utterly ridiculous for Democrats to not try to compete for any of those Republican-held seats, especially SD 30, and to only have 3 candidates running for the three seats they currently hold (4, 14, and 24; adjacent to one another in the St. Louis City-County area).

Quade is eligible for one more term in the legislature and her house seat is bluer than the Senate seat, which still voted for Trump and is unlikely to go Blue.

(I've just got to nitpick this point with you.) House districts 132, 133, 135, 136 (the new versions under the new map) all lie entirely within Senate district 30, and collectively, those four house districts encompass 82.8% of the population of the senate district. Democrats have a 4.35-point advantage in 132 and a 3.38-point advantage in 135; Republicans have a 3.00-point advantage in 133 and a 4.75-point advantage in 136. So, collectively, that region within the senate district the two major parties are effectively equal to one another. It's only the remaining 17.2% of the district - on the southern and western periphery, partially within House districts 130, 134, and 137 - that Republicans have a huge advantage. And overall, it gives the whole senate district a slight Republican lean. According to the election analysis that the panel of judges who drew this map, SD 30 has about a 3.52-point Republican advantage. Hence, the district is only a Tilt R district, and therefore there absolutely should be a Democrat who runs for district 30, and there's no reason for Quade to not be the one who runs for it. She's the most prominent officeholder the Democrats have in that district. Lots of previous members of the House have run for a higher office despite having three or less terms, including some who are running for the senate or the US House this year. Or if Quade does run for HD 132 again, some other Democrat should run. (Four years ago, the Dem nominee for SD 30 got 46.7%; this is a district they should not give up on.)

[Tekken_Guy]

Also, overshadowed by today's congressional redistricting news, but here's the GOP primary breakdowns in a number of State Senate districts:

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1507052484220575750

Out of 17 available senate races, Democrats have only 3 candidates running, each of them in the seats that they already hold, and no Democrat has yet filed to run in any of the other 14 districts, all of which are held by Republicans currently, and all 14 Republicans are at least lean Republican; most are heavily Republican. The oddest list of candidates for any of the senate districts so far is in district 30 - covering Springfield. The incumbent, Lincoln Hough, is eligible to run for reelection; he has been quoted in the media as saying he intends to run for another term, and would file "soon," but that was a month ago, but he still hasn't filed to run, with only three business days left before filing ends. Also, as the most competitive senate district that is up for grabs this cycle, a Democrat should run for this seat, such as Rep. Crystal Quade, but still no Democrat has filed yet. It would be utterly ridiculous for Democrats to not try to compete for any of those Republican-held seats, especially SD 30, and to only have 3 candidates running for the three seats they currently hold (4, 14, and 24; adjacent to one another in the St. Louis City-County area).

Quade is eligible for one more term in the legislature and her house seat is bluer than the Senate seat, which still voted for Trump and is unlikely to go Blue.

(I've just got to nitpick this point with you.) House districts 132, 133, 135, 136 (the new versions under the new map) all lie entirely within Senate district 30, and collectively, those four house districts encompass 82.8% of the population of the senate district. Democrats have a 4.35-point advantage in 132 and a 3.38-point advantage in 135; Republicans have a 3.00-point advantage in 133 and a 4.75-point advantage in 136. So, collectively, that region within the senate district the two major parties are effectively equal to one another. It's only the remaining 17.2% of the district - on the southern and western periphery, partially within House districts 130, 134, and 137 - that Republicans have a huge advantage. And overall, it gives the whole senate district a slight Republican lean. According to the election analysis that the panel of judges who drew this map, SD 30 has about a 3.52-point Republican advantage. Hence, the district is only a Tilt R district, and therefore there absolutely should be a Democrat who runs for district 30, and there's no reason for Quade to not be the one who runs for it. She's the most prominent officeholder the Democrats have in that district. Lots of previous members of the House have run for a higher office despite having three or less terms, including some who are running for the senate or the US House this year. Or if Quade does run for HD 132 again, some other Democrat should run. (Four years ago, the Dem nominee for SD 30 got 46.7%; this is a district they should not give up on.)

But Quade is literally minority leader. I'd assume she'd keep that position for her final term.

[MarkD]

Also, overshadowed by today's congressional redistricting news, but here's the GOP primary breakdowns in a number of State Senate districts:

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1507052484220575750

Out of 17 available senate races, Democrats have only 3 candidates running, each of them in the seats that they already hold, and no Democrat has yet filed to run in any of the other 14 districts, all of which are held by Republicans currently, and all 14 Republicans are at least lean Republican; most are heavily Republican. The oddest list of candidates for any of the senate districts so far is in district 30 - covering Springfield. The incumbent, Lincoln Hough, is eligible to run for reelection; he has been quoted in the media as saying he intends to run for another term, and would file "soon," but that was a month ago, but he still hasn't filed to run, with only three business days left before filing ends. Also, as the most competitive senate district that is up for grabs this cycle, a Democrat should run for this seat, such as Rep. Crystal Quade, but still no Democrat has filed yet. It would be utterly ridiculous for Democrats to not try to compete for any of those Republican-held seats, especially SD 30, and to only have 3 candidates running for the three seats they currently hold (4, 14, and 24; adjacent to one another in the St. Louis City-County area).

Quade is eligible for one more term in the legislature and her house seat is bluer than the Senate seat, which still voted for Trump and is unlikely to go Blue.

(I've just got to nitpick this point with you.) House districts 132, 133, 135, 136 (the new versions under the new map) all lie entirely within Senate district 30, and collectively, those four house districts encompass 82.8% of the population of the senate district. Democrats have a 4.35-point advantage in 132 and a 3.38-point advantage in 135; Republicans have a 3.00-point advantage in 133 and a 4.75-point advantage in 136. So, collectively, that region within the senate district the two major parties are effectively equal to one another. It's only the remaining 17.2% of the district - on the southern and western periphery, partially within House districts 130, 134, and 137 - that Republicans have a huge advantage. And overall, it gives the whole senate district a slight Republican lean. According to the election analysis that the panel of judges who drew this map, SD 30 has about a 3.52-point Republican advantage. Hence, the district is only a Tilt R district, and therefore there absolutely should be a Democrat who runs for district 30, and there's no reason for Quade to not be the one who runs for it. She's the most prominent officeholder the Democrats have in that district. Lots of previous members of the House have run for a higher office despite having three or less terms, including some who are running for the senate or the US House this year. Or if Quade does run for HD 132 again, some other Democrat should run. (Four years ago, the Dem nominee for SD 30 got 46.7%; this is a district they should not give up on.)

But Quade is literally minority leader. I'd assume she'd keep that position for her final term.

You were right: this afternoon Crystal Quade did file to run for reelection for HD 132 (although the fact that she took so long to do it was one of the reasons I was wondering which office she would run for).
With less than an hour ago today and then just one more day before filing closes, there are now 54 districts with a D v. R race, leaving 109 districts without such a race. Republicans have 188 candidates running in 130 districts, and Democrats have 104 candidates running in 87 districts (and there are 10 Libertarians and 1 Constitution Party candidates). I can see at least 1 more district that a Republican ought to file in - district 135 in Springfield - and at least 5 more districts in which Democrats ought to file in - 16 and 38 in Clay County, 30 in Jackson County, 101 in St. Louis County, and 106 in St. Charles County - because those six districts are all very closely competitive. Those six districts range between being 52.50% Republican and 52.50% Democratic.
Republicans have filed to run in all but 1 senate district, and so far Democrats have filed to run in 10 senate districts - including SD 30, where incumbent Republican Lincoln Hough also just filed.

[jamestroll]

MO-2 comes out to about Trump +8. Pretty ugly for not a lot of actual shore up.

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1507207723334742025

Seems like their goal was to make the district as suburban as possible to make Wagner happy while also connecting it to the reddest rurals to keep it R. Jefferson County isn't great for this as it's pretty Trumpy but not even that R relative to other nearby areas.

It’s still only Trump by single digits. It could be a problem by the end of the decade if the trends in St. Louis and St. Charles continue.

Def could, but as others have pointed out, STL suburbs aren't growing particularly fast nor rlly becoming more diverse so I have my doubts. I think Dems path to victory in the district would run through a really solid performance in the St. Charles portion of the district as that's def the area where they have the most to gain and is the favored quarter of the city, plus it actually growing

There is really no reason for those people to vote Democratic and few in the new district (or even the old boundaries, but to a lesser extent) are even liberal. Though a crazy maga rural Republican could face some issues.

[jamestroll]

Will the City of St. Louis ever have a decent Congressperson?

I hated Clay and I hate Bush.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

What effect will this map have on Wagner's primary? Cause I've heard she wanted a Lean R district so she wouldn't be vulnerable to a primary.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Will the City of St. Louis ever have a decent Congressperson?

I hated Clay and I hate Bush.

And Roberts has multiple sexual misconduct allegations against him...

I will say this though, unless she calms down, Bush will eventually lose her primary. The sort of people who spend their whole time in Congress being gadflies instead of representing the district almost always eventually go down in a primary or if the district is close the general election....Steve King was the most recent example.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bruh why are Missouri Rs so bad at the game of redistricting.

They can't even agree on how to gerrymander and the maps have gotten progressively worst both visually despite being less effective gerrymanders.

[Horus]

They really need to hurry up. That big blank blotch in the middle of the 538 map is simply ungodly.